NY6 possibilities?

[djm_psu_alum]

I, like many of you, are disgusted, disappointed, and (fill in the blank) about the last two weeks. I've seen the bowl projections which I know are just projections but they did make me think. Obviously, for selfish reasons, I wanted PSU in the playoff at the Rose Bowl (I live in Pasadena) or Fiesta as a part of the NY6 (since I could drive to that one). But I also want them in those because they are the top 6 bowls. Most of the projections have them out of it and I think that is a pretty good bet but if you analyze it--they could be in the thick of things. What do you think?

12 total spots (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-4 spots go to teams in playoff (Rose and Sugar)
8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

• One spot goes to the non-Big 5 conference champ. Let’s assume it is UCF.

8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to the highest ranked non-big 5 conference champ
7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

Now the possibilities start:

• Assume SEC champ is in the playoffs. That means, according to the CFP governance, that a replacement from the conference will fill their spot. Let’s say it is Alabama in the playoff and also assume that Georgia does not get into the playoff (I really think CFP selection board really fights setting this precedent). Georgia goes to one of the 4 remaining bowls.

7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Georgia
6 spots left

• Orange Bowl is to match up ACC champ versus the ‘highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame. Let’s assume Notre Dame wins out and gets into the playoff, that means they won’t be eligible for the Orange. Georgia would probably be the selection here.
• Let’s also assume that the Peach gets the non-Big 5 conference champ.
• I would project Clemson (assuming they win the ACC) as the 3rd playoff team to join Alabama and ND. This leaves the ACC champ slot open for the Orange. Miami probably finishes the season 11-2 with losses to ND and Clemson—in ACC champ. game so they are likely the choice here over a 2 loss VaTech team they beat.

6 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Miami
5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• There are three possible conference champs that could get the 4th playoff spot and yes, I’m going to project them so I can let this thought experiment continue: a one-loss Oklahoma, undefeated Wisconsin, and a 1 loss Washington OR 2 loss USC.
• I think the general belief is that the Pac 12 is down so regardless of who wins that conference, neither is going to the playoff. Let’s also assume that the committee will want to keep that champ in the west and they go to the Fiesta.

5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Pac12 champ (Washington/USC)
4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• So the decision is now between a one-loss Oklahoma with wins over OSU, OK State, and TCU or an undefeated Wisconsin (wins over Michigan, Iowa, and either OSU or MSU). I have to think that an undefeated champ from the Big 10 gets in over a one-loss conference champ (unless the one-loss conf champ is from the SEC – yes, SEC bias reigns). Let’s go with Wisconsin in the playoff as the 4th team.
• This means Oklahoma goes to Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach.

4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Oklahoma
3 spots left

• Since the Big Ten champ would go to the playoff, that means their slot is filled by the committee from the Big Ten. Ever year they have held this, the Big Ten champ game loser has been included in the NY6 each time. Assuming no craziness occurs, it’s either going to be OSU or MSU. Let’s assume it is a 3-loss OSU.

3 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to OSU (though this could be MSU)
2 spots left

• Let’s start filling in some of the bowls to see possible matchups:
  • Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
  • Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
  • Fiesta: Ohio State vs USC/Washington
  • Cotton: Oklahoma vs ?
  • Peach: UCF vs ?
  • Orange: Georgia vs Miami

• So where could the two remaining teams come from? As a reminder, based on the assumptions above, this is the current conference breakdown (incl. playoff teams):
  • SEC – 2
  • Big10 – 2
  • ACC – 2
  • Pac12 – 1
  • Big12 – 1
  • Non-Big 5 – 1
  • Independent - 1

• Let’s look at each conference to see what they could offer for those 2 remaining spots:
  • SEC – Auburn is currently #10 in polls with 2 losses. Let’s assume they lose 1-2 more times (still need to play Bama and UGa). I would say they are out. Miss State has two losses and still has to play Bama—I’d eliminate them too.
  • Big10 – Some assumptions here but let’s go with PSU winning out (10-2) They should climb the polls merely due to other teams ahead of them losing but it may only be a few spots. The MSU/OSU loser of this week will likely finish 9-3 and no champ game to go to. The MSU/OSU loser would finish ahead of PSU in division. I wouldn’t eliminate either yet.
  • ACC – VaTech is in a similar place as PSU, will likely finish 10-2 with no champ game to play. They are below PSU now so I think it would be safe to eliminate them.
  • Pac12 – This is where things get somewhat fluid. USC is right next to PSU in polls and will likely win out and go to champ game. If they win, they are in (likely Fiesta) as described above. If they lose, they fall below PSU and have 3 losses (though one in a conf champ game). Pac 12 has had 2, 1, and 2 participants in the playoff/NY6 bowls so it isn’t inconceivable that they only get 1 team in. The one thing to watch is if Washington wins out and sneaks into the playoffs. If that happens, it means another Pac 12 team will get in—not good for PSU. But for now, let’s assume that is not the case.
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all ranked in the top 15. Oklahoma State is above PSU in one poll and below them in another so let’s average it out that they are about even with PSU. I think they win out and finish 10-2. I also projected Oklahoma to win out and win the Big 12. To do that, it would result in them beating TCU twice (Iowa State will have 3 losses in conference due to losing to Ok State). This would mean TCU would have 3 losses. Where does that drop them and do they get any credit for making a conference champ game—though not technically winning a division since Big 12 doesn’t have divisions. As of now, I would not eliminate Ok State or TCU.

• So this leaves 4 teams by my count:
  • PSU – should climb into top 10 rankings by season end but finish 3rd in division and best win is over Michigan.
  • OSU/MSU loser of this week – even with a loss, assuming they finish 9-3, they will probably finish in the mid-teens of polls but they will be second in division and beat PSU.
  • TCU – If they beat Oklahoma this week and lose in conf champ game, they are definitely in but I don’t think that is what will happen. If they get killed in both games, they could be eliminated. Their best win is over Ok State.
  • Ok State – they likely jump into top 10 if they win out and teams ahead lose. Their best win is probably vs WVU.

• I think the Big 12 will get credit for being a good conference this year. Previous 3 years of this bowl set up, they go 2, 2, and 1 teams into the NY6/playoffs. They will likely get 2 but who I think will really depending the CFP rankings. Do you penalize TCU for making the champ game and losing or reward them for beating Ok State?
• The Big 10 has had 2-3-4 teams in previous 3 years of the setup. I don’t think they get to 4 teams this year but they will probably get 3 teams and who the 3rd team is a similar debate to the Big 12. Do you go with a 10-2 PSU or a 9-3 OSU/MSU team that beat PSU but didnt make champ game? It may ultimately depend on the CFP polls.

Here are the teams/scenarios I would root for:

• Georgia (or Alabama) is not in the playoff as the 2nd SEC team. I really think if this AND ND gets in, you will have many conferences upset. It also means a 3rd SEC team gets picked due to the CFP bowl policies. That would mean certainly one less at-large spot. If that was the case my guess is they would opt for a 2nd Big 12 team over a 3rd Big 10 team.
• Notre Dame gets into the playoff. Even if they lose vs Stanford (I think they beat Miami badly this weekend), they finish at 10-2 and are in the NY6. If that happens, it means the slot is filled by a conference champ (Oklahoma likely), that may not have an effect if TCU or Ok State were going to get in anyway. If Oklahoma is in and Clemson is on the outside but is a conf champ, I’m not sure Miami gets into NY6 as merely a conf runner-up that would mean no net-effect as ND takes Miami’s spot but since Clemson is already ranked ahead of Oklahoma in the CFP rankings, I left it as is.
• Washington does not get into the playoffs. If Washington wins Pac 12 and gets into playoffs, they get a second team into the playoffs. I would project no 2nd team comes out of the conference so if they were to swap places with ND, it means one less spot (likely goes to USC as presumed runner-up). In fact, it wouldn’t hurt if Washington loses vs Stanford OR WSU and loses Pac 12 champ game to USC.
• OSU loses twice….to MSU, UMich, in Big 10 champ game. I doubt this happens but a 4 loss OSU eliminates them. It would put Michigan into consideration since they would finish 10-2 but they would be below PSU and already beaten by them.
• If OSU doesn’t lose twice, Wisconsin wins Big 10 conference and stays undefeated. I should have probably led with this because I think for PSU to have any chance, Wisconsin has to be in the playoff. They are going to be in the NY6 anyway so it would be better if they were not an at-large pick.
• Wisconsin blows out Big 10 champ game opponent.
• TCU loses soundly to Oklahoma (both times). I think this would help PSU’s rankings and weaken the Big 12 conference strength.
• PSU blows out last 3 opponents.

In the end I think it will be

• Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
• Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
• Fiesta: Oklahoma vs USC/Washington
• Cotton: Penn State vs TCU
  
• Peach: UCF vs Ohio State
  
• Orange: Georgia vs Miami

 

[LemonEars]

I, like many of you, are disgusted, disappointed, and (fill in the blank) about the last two weeks. I've seen the bowl projections which I know are just projections but they did make me think. Obviously, for selfish reasons, I wanted PSU in the playoff at the Rose Bowl (I live in Pasadena) or Fiesta as a part of the NY6 (since I could drive to that one). But I also want them in those because they are the top 6 bowls. Most of the projections have them out of it and I think that is a pretty good bet but if you analyze it--they could be in the thick of things. What do you think?

12 total spots (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-4 spots go to teams in playoff (Rose and Sugar)
8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

• One spot goes to the non-Big 5 conference champ. Let’s assume it is UCF.

8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to the highest ranked non-big 5 conference champ
7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

Now the possibilities start:

• Assume SEC champ is in the playoffs. That means, according to the CFP governance, that a replacement from the conference will fill their spot. Let’s say it is Alabama in the playoff and also assume that Georgia does not get into the playoff (I really think CFP selection board really fights setting this precedent). Georgia goes to one of the 4 remaining bowls.

7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Georgia
6 spots left

• Orange Bowl is to match up ACC champ versus the ‘highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame. Let’s assume Notre Dame wins out and gets into the playoff, that means they won’t be eligible for the Orange. Georgia would probably be the selection here.
• Let’s also assume that the Peach gets the non-Big 5 conference champ.
• I would project Clemson (assuming they win the ACC) as the 3rd playoff team to join Alabama and ND. This leaves the ACC champ slot open for the Orange. Miami probably finishes the season 11-2 with losses to ND and Clemson—in ACC champ. game so they are likely the choice here over a 2 loss VaTech team they beat.

6 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Miami
5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• There are three possible conference champs that could get the 4th playoff spot and yes, I’m going to project them so I can let this thought experiment continue: a one-loss Oklahoma, undefeated Wisconsin, and a 1 loss Washington OR 2 loss USC.
• I think the general belief is that the Pac 12 is down so regardless of who wins that conference, neither is going to the playoff. Let’s also assume that the committee will want to keep that champ in the west and they go to the Fiesta.

5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Pac12 champ (Washington/USC)
4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• So the decision is now between a one-loss Oklahoma with wins over OSU, OK State, and TCU or an undefeated Wisconsin (wins over Michigan, Iowa, and either OSU or MSU). I have to think that an undefeated champ from the Big 10 gets in over a one-loss conference champ (unless the one-loss conf champ is from the SEC – yes, SEC bias reigns). Let’s go with Wisconsin in the playoff as the 4th team.
• This means Oklahoma goes to Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach.

4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Oklahoma
3 spots left

• Since the Big Ten champ would go to the playoff, that means their slot is filled by the committee from the Big Ten. Ever year they have held this, the Big Ten champ game loser has been included in the NY6 each time. Assuming no craziness occurs, it’s either going to be OSU or MSU. Let’s assume it is a 3-loss OSU.

3 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to OSU (though this could be MSU)
2 spots left

• Let’s start filling in some of the bowls to see possible matchups:
  • Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
  • Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
  • Fiesta: Ohio State vs USC/Washington
  • Cotton: Oklahoma vs ?
  • Peach: UCF vs ?
  • Orange: Georgia vs Miami

• So where could the two remaining teams come from? As a reminder, based on the assumptions above, this is the current conference breakdown (incl. playoff teams):
  • SEC – 2
  • Big10 – 2
  • ACC – 2
  • Pac12 – 1
  • Big12 – 1
  • Non-Big 5 – 1
  • Independent - 1

• Let’s look at each conference to see what they could offer for those 2 remaining spots:
  • SEC – Auburn is currently #10 in polls with 2 losses. Let’s assume they lose 1-2 more times (still need to play Bama and UGa). I would say they are out. Miss State has two losses and still has to play Bama—I’d eliminate them too.
  • Big10 – Some assumptions here but let’s go with PSU winning out (10-2) They should climb the polls merely due to other teams ahead of them losing but it may only be a few spots. The MSU/OSU loser of this week will likely finish 9-3 and no champ game to go to. The MSU/OSU loser would finish ahead of PSU in division. I wouldn’t eliminate either yet.
  • ACC – VaTech is in a similar place as PSU, will likely finish 10-2 with no champ game to play. They are below PSU now so I think it would be safe to eliminate them.
  • Pac12 – This is where things get somewhat fluid. USC is right next to PSU in polls and will likely win out and go to champ game. If they win, they are in (likely Fiesta) as described above. If they lose, they fall below PSU and have 3 losses (though one in a conf champ game). Pac 12 has had 2, 1, and 2 participants in the playoff/NY6 bowls so it isn’t inconceivable that they only get 1 team in. The one thing to watch is if Washington wins out and sneaks into the playoffs. If that happens, it means another Pac 12 team will get in—not good for PSU. But for now, let’s assume that is not the case.
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all ranked in the top 15. Oklahoma State is above PSU in one poll and below them in another so let’s average it out that they are about even with PSU. I think they win out and finish 10-2. I also projected Oklahoma to win out and win the Big 12. To do that, it would result in them beating TCU twice (Iowa State will have 3 losses in conference due to losing to Ok State). This would mean TCU would have 3 losses. Where does that drop them and do they get any credit for making a conference champ game—though not technically winning a division since Big 12 doesn’t have divisions. As of now, I would not eliminate Ok State or TCU.

• So this leaves 4 teams by my count:
  • PSU – should climb into top 10 rankings by season end but finish 3rd in division and best win is over Michigan.
  • OSU/MSU loser of this week – even with a loss, assuming they finish 9-3, they will probably finish in the mid-teens of polls but they will be second in division and beat PSU.
  • TCU – If they beat Oklahoma this week and lose in conf champ game, they are definitely in but I don’t think that is what will happen. If they get killed in both games, they could be eliminated. Their best win is over Ok State.
  • Ok State – they likely jump into top 10 if they win out and teams ahead lose. Their best win is probably vs WVU.

• I think the Big 12 will get credit for being a good conference this year. Previous 3 years of this bowl set up, they go 2, 2, and 1 teams into the NY6/playoffs. They will likely get 2 but who I think will really depending the CFP rankings. Do you penalize TCU for making the champ game and losing or reward them for beating Ok State?
• The Big 10 has had 2-3-4 teams in previous 3 years of the setup. I don’t think they get to 4 teams this year but they will probably get 3 teams and who the 3rd team is a similar debate to the Big 12. Do you go with a 10-2 PSU or a 9-3 OSU/MSU team that beat PSU but didnt make champ game? It may ultimately depend on the CFP polls.

Here are the teams/scenarios I would root for:

• Georgia (or Alabama) is not in the playoff as the 2nd SEC team. I really think if this AND ND gets in, you will have many conferences upset. It also means a 3rd SEC team gets picked due to the CFP bowl policies. That would mean certainly one less at-large spot. If that was the case my guess is they would opt for a 2nd Big 12 team over a 3rd Big 10 team.
• Notre Dame gets into the playoff. Even if they lose vs Stanford (I think they beat Miami badly this weekend), they finish at 10-2 and are in the NY6. If that happens, it means the slot is filled by a conference champ (Oklahoma likely), that may not have an effect if TCU or Ok State were going to get in anyway. If Oklahoma is in and Clemson is on the outside but is a conf champ, I’m not sure Miami gets into NY6 as merely a conf runner-up that would mean no net-effect as ND takes Miami’s spot but since Clemson is already ranked ahead of Oklahoma in the CFP rankings, I left it as is.
• Washington does not get into the playoffs. If Washington wins Pac 12 and gets into playoffs, they get a second team into the playoffs. I would project no 2nd team comes out of the conference so if they were to swap places with ND, it means one less spot (likely goes to USC as presumed runner-up). In fact, it wouldn’t hurt if Washington loses vs Stanford OR WSU and loses Pac 12 champ game to USC.
• OSU loses twice….to MSU, UMich, in Big 10 champ game. I doubt this happens but a 4 loss OSU eliminates them. It would put Michigan into consideration since they would finish 10-2 but they would be below PSU and already beaten by them.
• If OSU doesn’t lose twice, Wisconsin wins Big 10 conference and stays undefeated. I should have probably led with this because I think for PSU to have any chance, Wisconsin has to be in the playoff. They are going to be in the NY6 anyway so it would be better if they were not an at-large pick.
• Wisconsin blows out Big 10 champ game opponent.
• TCU loses soundly to Oklahoma (both times). I think this would help PSU’s rankings and weaken the Big 12 conference strength.
• PSU blows out last 3 opponents.

In the end I think it will be

• Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
• Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
• Fiesta: Oklahoma vs USC/Washington
• Cotton: Penn State vs TCU
  
• Peach: UCF vs Ohio State
  
• Orange: Georgia vs Miami

Nice thorough analysis. If your projections would happen the Ohio State would luck out again by playing an obvious over-rated patsy for an easy win. If we play TCU it would be a 58 - 56 type shootout game. Fun to watch. Alabama would destroy Wisconsin and Clemson would beat Notre Dame.

 

[PSUoh90]

I think we have a shot to sneak into the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta. The thought of going to the Outback Bowl with a 10-2 record, with 2 road losses to ranked teams by a combined 4 points is as brutal as it gets.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Nice thorough analysis. If your projections would happen the Ohio State would luck out again by playing an obvious over-rated patsy for an easy win. If we play TCU it would be a 58 - 56 type shootout game. Fun to watch. Alabama would destroy Wisconsin and Clemson would beat Notre Dame.

Thanks...I struggled with the matchups. I think you could easily see PSU and OSU switch spots. I think the Peach will get UCF which means they need a headliner and I don't think that is TCU. I also am not sure Oklahoma would be the choice there since the Fiesta is a somewhat traditional landing spot for Big 12 champ and the Cotton is closer to home.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I think we have a shot to sneak into the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta. The thought of going to the Outback Bowl with a 10-2 record, with 2 road losses to ranked teams by a combined 4 points is as brutal as it gets.

Totally agreed but as worked it out above, a lot depends on how other teams are ranked and finish.

 

[PennStateNate]

We have Zero Chance at the playoffs
We have about 10-15% Chance at a NY6

Wisky, OSU, and Mich St will be selected over us.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

We have Zero Chance at the playoffs
We have about 10-15% Chance at a NY6

Wisky, OSU, and Mich St will be selected over us.

Never insinuated PSU had any chance at the playoffs. Not sure where you read that. As I layout, whomever is the Big 10 champ game loser will get into they NY6. The question is about does Big 10 get a 3rd team and should it be a 2 loss PSU or a 3 loss MSU/OSU.

If they due it purely by rankings and assuming that the AP/Coaches polls are somewhat close to the CFP rankings, PSU is within 3 spots of MSU (MSU is above in AP and PSU is above in coaches) and PSU is within 5 spots (AP) and 2 spots (Coaches) of OSU.

Let's assume MSU loses (point spread would indicate as such), PSU will stay above them in coaches and probably move further above them and will mostly likely be ahead (though most closer) in the AP.

If MSU wins, I think OSU falls below PSU in coaches and it would be interesting in the AP. If they lose 2 games in a row badly, it could be a freefall.

Considering those two factors, the CFP committee is somewhat obligated to take higher rank teams so if there is enough of a gap PSU would have to be picked.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

That is beyond idiotic (aside from the Zero Chance for the "4-Team Invitational").

I don't think he read the original post.

 

[psuro]

If PSU goes to the Cotton Bowl, I might go. I have a free place to stay, and I have always wanted to see Jerry World.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

If PSU goes to the Cotton Bowl, I might go. I have a free place to stay, and I have always wanted to see Jerry World.

Agreed. I obviously hope for the Fiesta but wife and I each got $400 in American Airlines credits so we'd probably do Cotton Bowl. Peach/Orange would be too expensive to travel to from SoCal.

 

[PennStateNate]

That is beyond idiotic (aside from the Zero Chance for the "4-Team Invitational").

Thanks for adding insight..

You don't realize there is going to be one unbeaten team, and about 5 one loss teams, and then 4-5 2 loss teams that are going to pass the eye test more then Penn State..

Even if OSU beats MSU, I still think MSU has the track to finish ahead of PSU in the east based on Saturday.

We only have ourselves to blame and seriously don't deserve a NY6 bowl.. Any year we complain about who other beat. Well guess what this year.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Thanks for adding insight..

You don't realize there is going to be one unbeaten team, and about 5 one loss teams, and then 4-5 2 loss teams that are going to pass the eye test more then Penn State..

Even if OSU beats MSU, I still think MSU has the track to finish ahead of PSU in the east based on Saturday.

Which 5 one-loss teams? According to the current rankings, there are 12 current undefeated or 1 loss teams. I accounted for each one in the analysis above except for Memphis/South Florida.

As for the 4-5 2 loss teams? I'd be interested in which ones you are thinking about. I did address a few but please enlighten me.

Also, yes, if OSU beats MSU, they will likely finish 7-2 in division tied with PSU but have the tiebreaker. PSU will be 10-2 overall with MSU at 9-3. That is obviously the ultimate question--does head to head counter over rankings?

 

[DandyDonII]

Mandel (former SI writer) of "the athletic" is currently predicting us to the Peach against UCF....Assuming OSU doesn't win the Big Championship and we win out, I think we get a better bowl than they do since they would be a minimum 3 loss team at that point...If OSU wins all games except championship, we very well may end up with the best NYD bowl game of the Big since Michigan and MSU would each have a minimum 3 losses.
Worse case scenario is probably Whisky winning out but losing to MSU in championship game, both those teams would probably get the NYD bowls.....

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Mandel (former SI writer) of "the athletic" is currently predicting us to the Peach against UCF....Assuming OSU doesn't win the Big Championship and we win out, I think we get a better bowl than they do since they would be a minimum 3 loss team at that point...If OSU wins all games except championship, we very well may end up with the best NYD bowl game of the Big since Michigan and MSU would each have a minimum 3 losses.
Worse case scenario is probably Whisky winning out but losing to MSU in championship game, both those teams would probably get the NYD bowls.....

Exactly--also, Wiscy losing in Big 10 champ game removes their chances of the playoffs and increases chances of either Oklahoma (most likely if Wiscy loses) or Georgia (or Alabama - whoever the SEC champ game loser is).

 

[katchthis]

I read a scenario were we could still win the Big10, and a long shot but not crazy.
Big Ten update Pt. 1, a scenario: Penn State wins out. Michigan loses to Wisconsin and beats Ohio State. Ohio State beats Michigan State.

That would create a three-way tie atop the Big Ten East Division, with Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State all 7-2 in the league. Overall, Penn State would be 10-2, the Buckeyes and Spartans 9-3. The first tiebreaker, in case of a three-way tie, is overall record.

 

[fastlax16]

I read a scenario were we could still win the Big10, and a long shot but not crazy.
Big Ten update Pt. 1, a scenario: Penn State wins out. Michigan loses to Wisconsin and beats Ohio State. Ohio State beats Michigan State.

That would create a three-way tie atop the Big Ten East Division, with Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State all 7-2 in the league. Overall, Penn State would be 10-2, the Buckeyes and Spartans 9-3. The first tiebreaker, in case of a three-way tie, is overall record.

No it isn't. It is record against the other teams you are tied with. We'd be out with losses to both. Overall record (win %) is the 7th tie breaker.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.

7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative

 

[fairgambit]

I, like many of you, are disgusted, disappointed, and (fill in the blank) about the last two weeks. I've seen the bowl projections which I know are just projections but they did make me think. Obviously, for selfish reasons, I wanted PSU in the playoff at the Rose Bowl (I live in Pasadena) or Fiesta as a part of the NY6 (since I could drive to that one). But I also want them in those because they are the top 6 bowls. Most of the projections have them out of it and I think that is a pretty good bet but if you analyze it--they could be in the thick of things. What do you think?

12 total spots (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-4 spots go to teams in playoff (Rose and Sugar)
8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

• One spot goes to the non-Big 5 conference champ. Let’s assume it is UCF.

8 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to the highest ranked non-big 5 conference champ
7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)

Now the possibilities start:

• Assume SEC champ is in the playoffs. That means, according to the CFP governance, that a replacement from the conference will fill their spot. Let’s say it is Alabama in the playoff and also assume that Georgia does not get into the playoff (I really think CFP selection board really fights setting this precedent). Georgia goes to one of the 4 remaining bowls.

7 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Georgia
6 spots left

• Orange Bowl is to match up ACC champ versus the ‘highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame. Let’s assume Notre Dame wins out and gets into the playoff, that means they won’t be eligible for the Orange. Georgia would probably be the selection here.
• Let’s also assume that the Peach gets the non-Big 5 conference champ.
• I would project Clemson (assuming they win the ACC) as the 3rd playoff team to join Alabama and ND. This leaves the ACC champ slot open for the Orange. Miami probably finishes the season 11-2 with losses to ND and Clemson—in ACC champ. game so they are likely the choice here over a 2 loss VaTech team they beat.

6 spots left (Fiesta, Orange, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Miami
5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• There are three possible conference champs that could get the 4th playoff spot and yes, I’m going to project them so I can let this thought experiment continue: a one-loss Oklahoma, undefeated Wisconsin, and a 1 loss Washington OR 2 loss USC.
• I think the general belief is that the Pac 12 is down so regardless of who wins that conference, neither is going to the playoff. Let’s also assume that the committee will want to keep that champ in the west and they go to the Fiesta.

5 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Pac12 champ (Washington/USC)
4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)

• So the decision is now between a one-loss Oklahoma with wins over OSU, OK State, and TCU or an undefeated Wisconsin (wins over Michigan, Iowa, and either OSU or MSU). I have to think that an undefeated champ from the Big 10 gets in over a one-loss conference champ (unless the one-loss conf champ is from the SEC – yes, SEC bias reigns). Let’s go with Wisconsin in the playoff as the 4th team.
• This means Oklahoma goes to Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach.

4 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to Oklahoma
3 spots left

• Since the Big Ten champ would go to the playoff, that means their slot is filled by the committee from the Big Ten. Ever year they have held this, the Big Ten champ game loser has been included in the NY6 each time. Assuming no craziness occurs, it’s either going to be OSU or MSU. Let’s assume it is a 3-loss OSU.

3 spots left (Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach)
-1 spot to OSU (though this could be MSU)
2 spots left

• Let’s start filling in some of the bowls to see possible matchups:
  • Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
  • Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
  • Fiesta: Ohio State vs USC/Washington
  • Cotton: Oklahoma vs ?
  • Peach: UCF vs ?
  • Orange: Georgia vs Miami

• So where could the two remaining teams come from? As a reminder, based on the assumptions above, this is the current conference breakdown (incl. playoff teams):
  • SEC – 2
  • Big10 – 2
  • ACC – 2
  • Pac12 – 1
  • Big12 – 1
  • Non-Big 5 – 1
  • Independent - 1

• Let’s look at each conference to see what they could offer for those 2 remaining spots:
  • SEC – Auburn is currently #10 in polls with 2 losses. Let’s assume they lose 1-2 more times (still need to play Bama and UGa). I would say they are out. Miss State has two losses and still has to play Bama—I’d eliminate them too.
  • Big10 – Some assumptions here but let’s go with PSU winning out (10-2) They should climb the polls merely due to other teams ahead of them losing but it may only be a few spots. The MSU/OSU loser of this week will likely finish 9-3 and no champ game to go to. The MSU/OSU loser would finish ahead of PSU in division. I wouldn’t eliminate either yet.
  • ACC – VaTech is in a similar place as PSU, will likely finish 10-2 with no champ game to play. They are below PSU now so I think it would be safe to eliminate them.
  • Pac12 – This is where things get somewhat fluid. USC is right next to PSU in polls and will likely win out and go to champ game. If they win, they are in (likely Fiesta) as described above. If they lose, they fall below PSU and have 3 losses (though one in a conf champ game). Pac 12 has had 2, 1, and 2 participants in the playoff/NY6 bowls so it isn’t inconceivable that they only get 1 team in. The one thing to watch is if Washington wins out and sneaks into the playoffs. If that happens, it means another Pac 12 team will get in—not good for PSU. But for now, let’s assume that is not the case.
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all ranked in the top 15. Oklahoma State is above PSU in one poll and below them in another so let’s average it out that they are about even with PSU. I think they win out and finish 10-2. I also projected Oklahoma to win out and win the Big 12. To do that, it would result in them beating TCU twice (Iowa State will have 3 losses in conference due to losing to Ok State). This would mean TCU would have 3 losses. Where does that drop them and do they get any credit for making a conference champ game—though not technically winning a division since Big 12 doesn’t have divisions. As of now, I would not eliminate Ok State or TCU.

• So this leaves 4 teams by my count:
  • PSU – should climb into top 10 rankings by season end but finish 3rd in division and best win is over Michigan.
  • OSU/MSU loser of this week – even with a loss, assuming they finish 9-3, they will probably finish in the mid-teens of polls but they will be second in division and beat PSU.
  • TCU – If they beat Oklahoma this week and lose in conf champ game, they are definitely in but I don’t think that is what will happen. If they get killed in both games, they could be eliminated. Their best win is over Ok State.
  • Ok State – they likely jump into top 10 if they win out and teams ahead lose. Their best win is probably vs WVU.

• I think the Big 12 will get credit for being a good conference this year. Previous 3 years of this bowl set up, they go 2, 2, and 1 teams into the NY6/playoffs. They will likely get 2 but who I think will really depending the CFP rankings. Do you penalize TCU for making the champ game and losing or reward them for beating Ok State?
• The Big 10 has had 2-3-4 teams in previous 3 years of the setup. I don’t think they get to 4 teams this year but they will probably get 3 teams and who the 3rd team is a similar debate to the Big 12. Do you go with a 10-2 PSU or a 9-3 OSU/MSU team that beat PSU but didnt make champ game? It may ultimately depend on the CFP polls.

Here are the teams/scenarios I would root for:

• Georgia (or Alabama) is not in the playoff as the 2nd SEC team. I really think if this AND ND gets in, you will have many conferences upset. It also means a 3rd SEC team gets picked due to the CFP bowl policies. That would mean certainly one less at-large spot. If that was the case my guess is they would opt for a 2nd Big 12 team over a 3rd Big 10 team.
• Notre Dame gets into the playoff. Even if they lose vs Stanford (I think they beat Miami badly this weekend), they finish at 10-2 and are in the NY6. If that happens, it means the slot is filled by a conference champ (Oklahoma likely), that may not have an effect if TCU or Ok State were going to get in anyway. If Oklahoma is in and Clemson is on the outside but is a conf champ, I’m not sure Miami gets into NY6 as merely a conf runner-up that would mean no net-effect as ND takes Miami’s spot but since Clemson is already ranked ahead of Oklahoma in the CFP rankings, I left it as is.
• Washington does not get into the playoffs. If Washington wins Pac 12 and gets into playoffs, they get a second team into the playoffs. I would project no 2nd team comes out of the conference so if they were to swap places with ND, it means one less spot (likely goes to USC as presumed runner-up). In fact, it wouldn’t hurt if Washington loses vs Stanford OR WSU and loses Pac 12 champ game to USC.
• OSU loses twice….to MSU, UMich, in Big 10 champ game. I doubt this happens but a 4 loss OSU eliminates them. It would put Michigan into consideration since they would finish 10-2 but they would be below PSU and already beaten by them.
• If OSU doesn’t lose twice, Wisconsin wins Big 10 conference and stays undefeated. I should have probably led with this because I think for PSU to have any chance, Wisconsin has to be in the playoff. They are going to be in the NY6 anyway so it would be better if they were not an at-large pick.
• Wisconsin blows out Big 10 champ game opponent.
• TCU loses soundly to Oklahoma (both times). I think this would help PSU’s rankings and weaken the Big 12 conference strength.
• PSU blows out last 3 opponents.

In the end I think it will be

• Sugar: Alabama vs Wisconsin
• Rose: Clemson vs Notre Dame
• Fiesta: Oklahoma vs USC/Washington
• Cotton: Penn State vs TCU
  
• Peach: UCF vs Ohio State
  
• Orange: Georgia vs Miami

Wow. My soon to be released book on the glory years of Rutgers football is shorter than your post.

 

[fastlax16]

Wow. My soon to be released book on the glory year of Rutgers football is shorter than your post.

FTFY

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Wow. My soon to be released book on the glory years of Rutgers football is shorter than your post.

Ya, ya, I know. I did it while I ate my lunch. I started and it and it kept going and going so yes, it will be shorter anything on Rutgers' football success.

 

[marshall23]

We have Zero Chance at the playoffs
We have about 10-15% Chance at a NY6

Wisky, OSU, and Mich St will be selected over us.

OSU could have MICH, MICH ST and WISKy....a few possbile losses. IF not MSU will have at least another loss and Wisky could/ should lose in the B10 Championship game....if not they might be in the playoff.

 

[artsandletters]

Wow. My soon to be released book on the glory years of Rutgers football is shorter than your post.

I decided I’d rather wait until the announcement than read the post.

 

[psuro]

Wow. My soon to be released book on the glory years of Rutgers football is shorter than your post.

I am sure the movie rights are selling for pennies.

 

[john4psu]

So after all that, and thank you by the way, am I to root for (for Penn State's benefit):

Michigan State to beat Ohio State, and then Sparty lose to Wisconsin in the BIGCG, and Ohio State to beat Michigan because I can't stand Harbaugh and his deification by Wolverine fans?

That reminded me of having to schedule and trying to get into classes. Remember that? The night before I'd work out scenario after scenario, i. e., this class is full at 8 a.m. but I need it, can I get it later in the day, but can I get to Carnegie Bldg. from another class in Sparks in time. What can I take in its place as an elective? Something in the Forum Bldg.?

I'd have so many scenarios and back-up options ready. Of course, while trying to get into a class and chatting up the cute blonde pysch major, finding out what classes she was taking, and trying to work that into my schedule. It's a wonder I graduated in four years.

 

[michnittlion]

No it isn't. It is record against the other teams you are tied with. We'd be out with losses to both. Overall record (win %) is the 7th tie breaker.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.

7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative

You are correct (and the guy you were responding to was dead wrong).

I swear --- 80% of all posts here show a fundamental misunderstanding of how the B1G tie-breakers work. It's really not that complicated, yeesh.

 

[fastlax16]

You are correct (and the guy you were responding to was dead wrong).

I swear --- 80% of all posts here show a fundamental misunderstanding of how the B1G tie-breakers work. It's really not that complicated, yeesh.

Its the same as people still projecting the winner of the big ten to the rose bowl without realizing it is a playoff site. That said the big ten could have worded it a bit clearer.

 

[YorkLion]

Just 2 short weeks ago there were arguments made that we would be #1 after our victory over tOSU. And then we played the games. I just hope we end the Season on a high note!

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Its the same as people still projecting the winner of the big ten to the rose bowl without realizing it is a playoff site. That said the big ten could have worded it a bit clearer.

Technically, if PSU had finished #2 or #3 (and Bama stayed at #1) and won the Big Ten, they would have gone to the Rose Bowl. The same could have been said for OSU before the Iowa game and it is possible Wisconsin goes undefeated, wins the Big 10, and gets #2 or #3 seed. Since the 1st seed gets to slated to the playoff site closest to them, whether its Bama or Georgia, either is going to opt for the Sugar Bowl.

As an aside, I live in Pasadena and my wife and I participate in the Pasadena resident sale every year. We tend to buy extra pairs and see how the market it. Some years are better than others. Wisconsin in 2010, Iowa and MSU in recent years meant good return. Last year, all of our extras went to friends/family. This will be the second time with the Rose Bowl as a playoff site. The first year, we got lucky with Oregon being slated here--it meant a reasonable west coast team. They played FSU who had just been here the year before in the last BCS championship game.

I prefer the playoff format but for Pasadena, it was nice when we had the Rose Bowl and then the BCS championship game rotated here every 4th year. On those years, as we had our choice to buy Rose Bowl tickets, BCS National Championship tickets or both. We chose both. Unfortunately, the Rose Bowl has chosen not to be a National Championship site during the playoff iteration.

 

[fastlax16]

Technically, if PSU had finished #2 or #3 (and Bama stayed at #1) and won the Big Ten, they would have gone to the Rose Bowl. The same could have been said for OSU before the Iowa game and it is possible Wisconsin goes undefeated, wins the Big 10, and gets #2 or #3 seed. Since the 1st seed gets to slated to the playoff site closest to them, whether its Bama or Georgia, either is going to opt for the Sugar Bowl.

I was referring to situations where it was clearly as a non-playoff team but yes it is still possible for the big ten champ to make it to pasadena. Not a guarantee though even if the big ten is in the playoff. If Wisconsin is the 4 seed they are likely going to the sugar bowl assuming the 1 seed comes out of the sec.

 

[wrm125]

You are correct (and the guy you were responding to was dead wrong).

I swear --- 80% of all posts here show a fundamental misunderstanding of how the B1G tie-breakers work. It's really not that complicated, yeesh.

To be fair, the description of the first tie breaker could be written more clearly...

 

[NedFromYork]

I don't know, not sure we want to make a New Year's Day bowl. I just read in another thread Moorhead is a ticking time bomb with his high high blood pressure. I don't think he makes it to New Year's Day. Better the Music City Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl I think.

 

[WichitaKid]

Since I already purchased two tickets to the Cotton, that's what I'm rooting for.

 

[PSUoh90]

Hoping for the Fiesta. PSU has an all time record of 6-0 there. We Are Fiesta Bowl U.

 

[kentuckycb]

Thanks for adding insight..

You don't realize there is going to be one unbeaten team, and about 5 one loss teams, and then 4-5 2 loss teams that are going to pass the eye test more then Penn State..

Even if OSU beats MSU, I still think MSU has the track to finish ahead of PSU in the east based on Saturday.

We only have ourselves to blame and seriously don't deserve a NY6 bowl.. Any year we complain about who other beat. Well guess what this year.

Disagree that we don’t deserve a NY6 bowl.
Plenty of 2-loss teams are there. Right now we have an argument to be there over any other B10 team except Wisky. We have two competitive losses. MSU got handled by ND and lost to NW. OSU got handled by both OU and Iowa. We have been the most consistently competitive team of the 3.

 

[PSUoh90]

Disagree that we don’t deserve a NY6 bowl.
Plenty of 2-loss teams are there. Right now we have an argument to be there over any other B10 team except Wisky. We have two competitive losses. MSU got handled by ND and lost to NW. OSU got handled by both OU and Iowa. We have been the most consistently competitive team of the 3.

Auburn went to the Sugar Bowl with 4 losses last year. I realize there is an SEC tie in and there was really no one better to choose with Bama being in the playoff, but still....

Also, Wisconsin went to the Cotton Bowl with 3 losses.

Michigan went to the Orange Bowl with 2 losses and a Big Ten East 3rd place finish. Most likely where we will be this year.

 

[kentuckycb]

Auburn went to the Sugar Bowl with 4 losses last year. I realize there is an SEC tie in and there was really no one better to choose with Bama being in the playoff, but still....

Also, Wisconsin went to the Cotton Bowl with 3 losses.

Michigan went to the Orange Bowl with 2 losses and a Big Ten East 3rd place finish. Most likely where we will be this year.

Exactly. No one should be shocked if we are ranked ahead of OSU in the CFP rankings tonight. We should be based on performance.

 

[psugisher]

4 BIG teams in the NY6 last year.. after the playoffs those other bowls are choosing based on their obligation and then who will travel and bring the best ratings. OSU, PSU, Michigan are always at the top of the list similar to Notre Dame. PSU will be top ten if they finish 10-2 and have someone that everyone wants to showcase for their game in Saquon Barkley. NY6 is a lock if we win out in my opinion.. just hope it's a high profile top 10 opponent. The Rose Bowl was slightly disappointing last year because we weren't in the playoff but it didn't show on the field. Our guys have a lot of pride and will play for each other down the stretch. This can still be a very good season for them.

 

[Mace54]

Wisconsin's schedule is a joke. Their two toughest games are the next two against Iowa and Michigan. Of course they're both at home.

 

[psualum10]

Not sure why people think Ohio State and Michigan State are both getting a better bowl than us. If we finish 10-2 we'll get a better bowl than them. They play each other this weekend so one of those teams will be 7-3 and finish 9-3 at best. They're not getting a NY6 bowl at 9-3.

 

[PSUoh90]

Not sure why people think Ohio State and Michigan State are both getting a better bowl than us. If we finish 10-2 we'll get a better bowl than them. They play each other this weekend so one of those teams will be 7-3 and finish 9-3 at best. They're not getting a NY6 bowl at 9-3.

Agree. If OSU wins out and wins the B10 championship though, they will probably get the best of the non-playoff bowls. Sadly, after they beat MSU, they can still lose to Michigan at the Big House and go to Indy.

 

[PennStateNate]

Ohio State and Wisky are getting better bowls if they win out..