NY6 possibilities?

[djm_psu_alum]

4 BIG teams in the NY6 last year.. after the playoffs those other bowls are choosing based on their obligation and then who will travel and bring the best ratings. OSU, PSU, Michigan are always at the top of the list similar to Notre Dame. PSU will be top ten if they finish 10-2 and have someone that everyone wants to showcase for their game in Saquon Barkley. NY6 is a lock if we win out in my opinion.. just hope it's a high profile top 10 opponent. The Rose Bowl was slightly disappointing last year because we weren't in the playoff but it didn't show on the field. Our guys have a lot of pride and will play for each other down the stretch. This can still be a very good season for them.

I would like to think tv ratings, and travel have as much to do with it as they used to but if the past is any indication, that is no longer the case. If you look at the past three years and the last CFP rankings before the bowls. Every team ranked in the top 9 was in a NY6. Obviously, the top 4 were in the playoffs and then #5-9 were always in those bowls.

• In 2014 - CFP #12 (ACC replacement), and #20(non Big 5 conf champ) joined #1-10. #10 was Arizona this year and was the Pac 12 replacement.
  
• In 2015 - CFP #12 (SEC replacement), #16 (replacement), and #18 (non Big 5 conf champ) joined CFP #1-9.
• In 2016 - CFP #11 (ACC replacement), #14 (SEC replacement), and #15 (non Big 5 conf champ).

So basically, I think PSU needs to get in the top #9 of the final rankings to be ensured a spot and that might be determined by how far down they go in this week's CFP rankings because they will have to climb their way back up form there. The other factor is the conference replacements. It would be ideal if the ACC, SEC, and Pac 12 replacements were in the top #10. The non-Big 5 conf champ won't be in the top 10. As you can see, the NY6 bowls are now purely by the CFP rankings and highest ranked conference replacements (for those who get in the playoffs).

 

[LemonEars]

Ohio State and Wisky are getting better bowls if they win out..

Ohio State and Wisky can't both win out. They would have to play each other if they keep winning.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Agree. If OSU wins out and wins the B10 championship though, they will probably get the best of the non-playoff bowls. Sadly, after they beat MSU, they can still lose to Michigan at the Big House and go to Indy.

That would probably the worst scenario (next to two SEC teams in the playoffs) since it would mean OSU as conference champ is assured a spot and Wisconsin as a 1-loss team would get in as an at-large team and not a playoff team. If Wisconsin isn't in the playoffs, that slot could be a 2nd SEC team, Big 12 champ, or Pac 12 champ (but only if it is a 1-loss Washington team). Putting any of those conference champs into the playoff means you are guaranteed a 2nd team into the NY6 bowls as a conference replacement. That doesnt make a difference if it is Oklahoma as the Big 12 probably gets two teams in NY6 anyway but two SEC teams in playoffs means a 3rd SEC team has to be chosen as the conference representative and if Washington gets picked, another Pac12 team gets picked. In both cases, I'm not sure a 2nd Pac12 or 3rd SEC team would be in the top 10 CFP rankings but it wouldnt matter if they had to be picked as conference replacement.

 

[PSUinSTL]

Ohio State and Wisky are getting better bowls if they win out..

And only 1 of them can win out.

If PSU wins out - we will be in a NY6 bowl (As long as one of the 2 following occur: 1) Wiscy wins the BIG or 2) loses 2 times. If they lose the BIG title game and enter 12-1 we could be in trouble (depending on how the game goes).

If Wiscy wins out - we are assured of being the 2nd highest ranked BIG10 team. OSU/UM/MSU would all have 3 losses (minimum) - we would have 2.

Look at potential teams right now.
SEC - Auburn/Bama/Georgia
ACC - Miami/Clemson/VT
BIG - OSU/MSU/Wiscy/UM/PSU
BIG12 - OSU/OU/TCU
PAC - UW/Champ
Ind - ND
Non p5 - 1

That is 18 teams teams for 12 slots.

Again - assume we win out.

The SEC will get 2 in. Potentially 3
The ACC will likely get 2 in
The BIG12/PAC will get 3 combined (Both non champs will have 2+ losses)
IF UW wins out - every PAC team would have 3 losses
After Saturday - only 1 Big12 team will have 1 loss.
ND will take a spot (worst case scenario)
UCF (assuming they will be the highest non P5)
That leaves at worst 2 spots for the BIG.
The champ gets one.
Assume Wiscy wins out
MSU/OSU/Michigan would have 3 losses. We would be ahead of them.
All would be below us, we would have less losses and a longer winning streak
Assume OSU/MSU win the conference.
If Wiscy loses before teh CCG - they would have 2 losses and ours would be equal/better
(considering their loss would be to either a team we beat (UM/Iowa) or Minnesota who is
worse than our loss

The only Hiccup I see for us not making a NYC6 bowl is if Wiscy enters 12-0 and loses a
close game or a fluky game. They might stay ahead of us - though even this isn't guaranteed
as we were ahead of them with 1 more loss. They would have loss to a team we loss to and
in reality our loss would have been better (on the road) and it will be hard to get a closer loss
than what we had (1 point vs OSU and last second FG) - plus their bets 3 wins would be
NW/Iowa/Michigan which we also beat.
That is 10 (worst case) though if Auburn goes 0-2 against Bama/UGA that may only be 1.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Auburn went to the Sugar Bowl with 4 losses last year. I realize there is an SEC tie in and there was really no one better to choose with Bama being in the playoff, but still....

Also, Wisconsin went to the Cotton Bowl with 3 losses.

Michigan went to the Orange Bowl with 2 losses and a Big Ten East 3rd place finish. Most likely where we will be this year.

Wisconsin went to Cotton last year because they were #8 in CFP rankings and as I noted in a later response, every team ranked in top #9 of final December CFP rankings got into the NY6.

 

[PSUoh90]

Wisconsin went to Cotton last year because they were #8 in CFP rankings and as I noted in a later response, every team ranked in top #9 of final December CFP rankings got into the NY6.

Right. Should we win out, I think we find ourselves in a similar spot.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Right. Should we win out, I think we find ourselves in a similar spot.

I think it depends on how far the drop is in the CFP this week. If they drop down too far, even if teams ahead of them lose, there might be too many teams to jump. If they are in the #13-14 spot, they have a chance. OSU, Mich State, USC, Auburn are likely to be right ahead of PSU. The undefeated and one-loss teams will all be in the top 8.

• OSU or MSU will drop below PSU after this week.
  
• Auburn could lose twice more (UGa this week or Bama in Iron Bowl).
  
• USC could win out and win Pac 12 which means Washington finishes 11-2 (assuming they win out regular season and lose in Pac 12 champ game).
  
• Washington would probably still be above us in the final CFP rankings.
  
• If USC loses in Pac 12 game, they fall below.
  
• Miami probably loses twice more (this week vs ND and ACC champ game). However, if Clemson gets into playoff, the ACC gets a replacement team so it won't matter where Miami is ranked.
  
• TCU could lose twice more vs Oklahoma and it would be interesting to see where they fall if that happens. If Oklahoma is in the playoffs, it won't matter where they fall because they likely get in as the Big 12 replacement (yes, they would have 3 losses but they beat Oklahoma State and their 3rd loss is in a conference champ game).

If PSU is below Oklahoma State and Va Tech in this week's CFP rankings, it will be tough for them to jump both because each of them will likely win out and also finish 10-2.

 

[LafayetteBear]

If PSU can't get into the Playoffs (and, thus, the Rose Bowl), my preference (and my sons' preference) would be for a bowl in a good location. The Orange Bowl would be great. The Holiday Bowl would be very good as well. The Aloha Bowl would be the best. Have been to Honolulu twice for Cal games. A very enjoyable road trip, to say the least.

 

[PSUoh90]

If PSU is below Oklahoma State and Va Tech in this week's CFP rankings, it will be tough for them to jump both because each of them will likely win out and also finish 10-2.

Agree. This coming week will be VT and OK State's best chance at a loss. I don't think the Pokes go down, but think there is a better than good chance that VT loses at GT.

 

[PennStateNate]

Ohio State and Wisky can't both win out. They would have to play each other if they keep winning.

True, but considering they play in the B1G title game, they be in better bowl then PSU. Our best bet would be for Wisky to go unbeaten, get to the CFP playoffs. If OSU beats Wisky, then Wisky and/or OSU would be in a NY6 bowl.

 

[PSUoh90]

considering they play in the B1G title game, they be in better bowl then PSU.

Perhaps. But, last year UM went to the Orange Bowl to play FSU while Wisco went to the Cotton to play a MAC opponent.

Based on that, I think best case scenario would be to get a team like Miami if they lose the ACC championship game.

 

[BOSCO2]

I decided I’d rather wait until the announcement than read the post.

Me too. We need to take care of Rutgers. Nothing else means anything to me right now.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

And only 1 of them can win out.

If PSU wins out - we will be in a NY6 bowl (As long as one of the 2 following occur: 1) Wiscy wins the BIG or 2) loses 2 times. If they lose the BIG title game and enter 12-1 we could be in trouble (depending on how the game goes).

If Wiscy wins out - we are assured of being the 2nd highest ranked BIG10 team. OSU/UM/MSU would all have 3 losses (minimum) - we would have 2.

Look at potential teams right now.
SEC - Auburn/Bama/Georgia
ACC - Miami/Clemson/VT
BIG - OSU/MSU/Wiscy/UM/PSU
BIG12 - OSU/OU/TCU
PAC - UW/Champ
Ind - ND
Non p5 - 1

That is 18 teams teams for 12 slots.

Again - assume we win out.

The SEC will get 2 in. Potentially 3
The ACC will likely get 2 in
The BIG12/PAC will get 3 combined (Both non champs will have 2+ losses)
IF UW wins out - every PAC team would have 3 losses
After Saturday - only 1 Big12 team will have 1 loss.
ND will take a spot (worst case scenario)
UCF (assuming they will be the highest non P5)
That leaves at worst 2 spots for the BIG.
The champ gets one.
Assume Wiscy wins out
MSU/OSU/Michigan would have 3 losses. We would be ahead of them.
All would be below us, we would have less losses and a longer winning streak
Assume OSU/MSU win the conference.
If Wiscy loses before teh CCG - they would have 2 losses and ours would be equal/better
(considering their loss would be to either a team we beat (UM/Iowa) or Minnesota who is
worse than our loss

The only Hiccup I see for us not making a NYC6 bowl is if Wiscy enters 12-0 and loses a
close game or a fluky game. They might stay ahead of us - though even this isn't guaranteed
as we were ahead of them with 1 more loss. They would have loss to a team we loss to and
in reality our loss would have been better (on the road) and it will be hard to get a closer loss
than what we had (1 point vs OSU and last second FG) - plus their bets 3 wins would be
NW/Iowa/Michigan which we also beat.
That is 10 (worst case) though if Auburn goes 0-2 against Bama/UGA that may only be 1.

Basically:

• If SEC gets 3 teams in, then PSU won't be in.
  
• If Big 12 gets 3, PSU won't be in.
  
• If Pac 12 gets 2, PSU won't be in.

I think PSU only gets in as the 3rd Big 10 team not the second. The Big 10 champ game loser has been in the NY6 each year and I don't think they deny a 10-3 OSU or 10-3 MSU. Their 3rd loss would be in a conference champ game and I think that won't hurt them that much. Now, if either gets blown out by Wisc, they could fall in the CFP and then yes, they wouldn't be the 2nd team out of the Big 10. The same could be said for Wiscy...if they lose one prior to Big 10 champ game and then lose the champ game and finish 10-2, I think it is very close if they are in the NY6. It is really all about how the CFP rankings go--if PSU ends up in top 9, they are in the NY6.

 

[gohigh79]

I think it depends on how far the drop is in the CFP this week. If they drop down too far, even if teams ahead of them lose, there might be too many teams to jump. If they are in the #13-14 spot, they have a chance. OSU, Mich State, USC, Auburn are likely to be right ahead of PSU. The undefeated and one-loss teams will all be in the top 8.

• OSU or MSU will drop below PSU after this week.
  
• Auburn could lose twice more (UGa this week or Bama in Iron Bowl).
  
• USC could win out and win Pac 12 which means Washington finishes 11-2 (assuming they win out regular season and lose in Pac 12 champ game).
  
• Washington would probably still be above us in the final CFP rankings.
  
• If USC loses in Pac 12 game, they fall below.
  
• Miami probably loses twice more (this week vs ND and ACC champ game). However, if Clemson gets into playoff, the ACC gets a replacement team so it won't matter where Miami is ranked.
  
• TCU could lose twice more vs Oklahoma and it would be interesting to see where they fall if that happens. If Oklahoma is in the playoffs, it won't matter where they fall because they likely get in as the Big 12 replacement (yes, they would have 3 losses but they beat Oklahoma State and their 3rd loss is in a conference champ game).

If PSU is below Oklahoma State and Va Tech in this week's CFP rankings, it will be tough for them to jump both because each of them will likely win out and also finish 10-2.

As far as "replacement" teams (that is, a team from a Power 5 conference selected to go to a NY6 bowl to replace a team from their conference that makes the playoff), that only applies for non-playoff NY6 bowls that have contractual ties to a conference. Among the current NY6 bowls, the only ones with contractual ties are:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten and Pac-12)
Sugar Bowl (SEC and Big XII)
Orange Bowl (ACC and Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC)
(Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Cotton Bowl have no contractual ties with specific conferences; all Power 5 conference champions and the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion are guaranteed to play in a NY6 bowl)

Since the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are the playoff games this year, the only bowl that could take a "replacement" team is the Orange Bowl. They'll take 1) the ACC Champion or highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff; vs. 2) the highest ranked team not in the playoff among the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame.

Overall, this means that literally the #5 through #12 ranked teams will play in the four non-playoff NY6 bowls, unless:

1) The highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion is ranked lower than 12 (pretty likely, though UCF could conceivably get to #12 at 12-0)
2) The Big XII champion is ranked lower than #12 (very unlikely at this point)
3) The Pac-12 champion is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
4) The Big Ten champion is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
5) The ACC champion or highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
6) The SEC champion is ranked lower than #12 (no)
7) The highest ranked non-playoff team among the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame is ranked lower than #12 (very no)

Essentially, a #11 ranking for Penn State tonight would indicate a very high chance of getting to a NY6 bowl by winning out. #12 or #13 would still indicate a pretty good chance, with teams ahead that will inevitably move down.

Southern Cal winning the Pac-12 against Washington could leave both teams ahead of Penn State to push Penn State out of the NY6. I don't see any 3-loss team, including Ohio State or Michigan State (losing this Saturday/in the Big Ten Championship), staying ranked ahead of 2-loss Penn State, even with the head-to-head victory by OSU/MSU. A 9-3 Auburn team that beats Georgia (and loses to Alabama) is a possibility, though. I don't think 2-loss Virginia Tech will ever get ahead of 2-loss Penn State.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

As far as "replacement" teams (that is, a team from a Power 5 conference selected to go to a NY6 bowl to replace a team from their conference that makes the playoff), that only applies for non-playoff NY6 bowls that have contractual ties to a conference. Among the current NY6 bowls, the only ones with contractual ties are:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten and Pac-12)
Sugar Bowl (SEC and Big XII)
Orange Bowl (ACC and Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC)
(Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Cotton Bowl have no contractual ties with specific conferences; all Power 5 conference champions and the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion are guaranteed to play in a NY6 bowl)

Since the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are the playoff games this year, the only bowl that could take a "replacement" team is the Orange Bowl. They'll take 1) the ACC Champion or highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff; vs. 2) the highest ranked team not in the playoff among the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame.

Overall, this means that literally the #5 through #12 ranked teams will play in the four non-playoff NY6 bowls, unless:

1) The highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion is ranked lower than 12 (pretty likely, though UCF could conceivably get to #12 at 12-0)
2) The Big XII champion is ranked lower than #12 (very unlikely at this point)
3) The Pac-12 champion is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
4) The Big Ten champion is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
5) The ACC champion or highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff is ranked lower than #12 (also very unlikely)
6) The SEC champion is ranked lower than #12 (no)
7) The highest ranked non-playoff team among the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame is ranked lower than #12 (very no)

Essentially, a #11 ranking for Penn State tonight would indicate a very high chance of getting to a NY6 bowl by winning out. #12 or #13 would still indicate a pretty good chance, with teams ahead that will inevitably move down.

Southern Cal winning the Pac-12 against Washington could leave both teams ahead of Penn State to push Penn State out of the NY6. I don't see any 3-loss team, including Ohio State or Michigan State (losing this Saturday/in the Big Ten Championship), staying ranked ahead of 2-loss Penn State, even with the head-to-head victory by OSU/MSU. A 9-3 Auburn team that beats Georgia (and loses to Alabama) is a possibility, though. I don't think 2-loss Virginia Tech will ever get ahead of 2-loss Penn State.

I see what you are saying and I guess I read it a bit differently. In every year, the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion has always been out of the top 12 and it isn't controversial to state that that slot will always be filled by a team that is outside of the top 12. So if we make that reasonable assumption, we could say it should always be #1-11 of the CFP rankings EXCEPT when #2-7 of your rationale is in place. However, if you look at the history below, 2014 comes the closest to fitting but 2015 and 2016 still show one of the top #11 teams being skipped due to a conference replacement (#10 and #11 in 2015 and #10 in 2016).

• In 2014 - CFP #12 (ACC replacement), and #20(non Big 5 conf champ) joined #1-10. #10 was Arizona this year and was the Pac 12 replacement.
• In 2015 - CFP #12 (SEC replacement), #16 (Big 12 replacement), and #18 (non Big 5 conf champ) joined CFP #1-9.
• In 2016 - CFP #11 (ACC replacement), #14 (SEC replacement), and #15 (non Big 5 conf champ).

Maybe I'm just not understanding it but I really dont think PSU could feel guaranteed a spot until/unless they get in the top 9 in the final rankings. More importantly, I dont think PSU is #11 in this week's CFP rankings--if they are, great but I think they are in the #13-14 range.

 

[PSUinSTL]

Basically:

• If SEC gets 3 teams in, then PSU won't be in.
  
• If Big 12 gets 3, PSU won't be in.
  
• If Pac 12 gets 2, PSU won't be in.

I think PSU only gets in as the 3rd Big 10 team not the second. The Big 10 champ game loser has been in the NY6 each year and I don't think they deny a 10-3 OSU or 10-3 MSU. Their 3rd loss would be in a conference champ game and I think that won't hurt them that much. Now, if either gets blown out by Wisc, they could fall in the CFP and then yes, they wouldn't be the 2nd team out of the Big 10. The same could be said for Wiscy...if they lose one prior to Big 10 champ game and then lose the champ game and finish 10-2, I think it is very close if they are in the NY6. It is really all about how the CFP rankings go--if PSU ends up in top 9, they are in the NY6.

I disagree.

If the SEC gets 3 that leaves 9 spots for
Infact - I assume they will.
Here are my spots (as I laid out in my post
1) Bama
2) UGA
3) Auburn
4) ND
5) Clemson
6) Miami or VT
7) Oklahoma
8) Washington
9) TCU or Ok State
10) UCF
11) Wiscy or BIG Champ
12) PSU

If BIG12/PAC12 both get 2 (which is unlikely) then yes - we are in trouble
Look at the PAC12. If UW loses again - do they get in over us? They were behind us with less losses. Everybody else has 2 losses. We are ranked higher then all of them except USC - the only 2 loss team that could get an atlarge over us (if it ended today) would be UW (if USC doesn't lose again they get the auto bid)
Look at the Big12. Right now - there are 3 teams. Assume worst case scenario for us (TCU/OU play twice and split) - that leaves 3 teams eligible for the NY6. Would 2 big12 teams with 2 losses have a stronger case? Our resume compares well to all of them (except perhaps OU). Iowa/Mds wins over the BIG 12 help us.

There are 3 SEC teams in play
Bama/UGA/Auburn.
If Auburn loses 1 time they won't be ahead of us in the rankings.
If Auburn Wins out - that means Georgia would have 2 losses. Chances are they would fall behind us with 2 losses unless they were 'flukes' or really close losses
I don't see 3 SEC teams in unless 2 BIG teams are in.

Now the BIG.
Either MSU/OSU will have a 3rd loss this weekend. We will be ahead of them - considering we lost to both by the slimmest of margins on their field - most people will negate the head to head results and focus on body of work (and neither is better than ours) considering they haven't beaten anybody we didn't.
UM won't jump us regardless of what they do - as they can't have less losses than us - and the head to head results (come into play because losses are equal).
That leaves the Wiscy/BIGE loser to potentially be ahead of us.
While it is possible that they remain ahead of us - i don't think it is likely. OSU would have 3 losses including 2 'ugly' losses. our 2 losses were again close and on the road. The committee will likely take that into account.
If MSU loses - That would be 3 losses. They will likely be behind us as well. The committee will consider we lost on a last 2nd play in bad weather on the road after a 3.5 hour delay.

MSU hasn't lit the world on fire - they have had tight wins. We have had 3 close games.
I think if we dominate the last 3 weeks - that will be the difference. We will have had 9 'easy' wins. One nail biter (in a very tough environment that sees top teams lose regularly (see UM last year and OSU this year). And 2 losses that we were in position to win until the last minute.

The circumstances of our losses help us. I honestly believe that we will get a pass of the losses to the extent that we can (assuming we play well the last 3 weeks).

I think the committee might surprise people tonight and rank higher than many feel (might be higher than either OSU/MSU)

 

[gohigh79]

I see what you are saying and I guess I read it a bit differently. In every year, the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion has always been out of the top 12 and it isn't controversial to state that that slot will always be filled by a team that is outside of the top 12. So if we make that reasonable assumption, we could say it should always be #1-11 of the CFP rankings EXCEPT when #2-7 of your rationale is in place. However, if you look at the history below, 2014 comes the closest to fitting but 2015 and 2016 still show one of the top #11 teams being skipped due to a conference replacement (#10 and #11 in 2015 and #10 in 2016).

• In 2014 - CFP #12 (ACC replacement), and #20(non Big 5 conf champ) joined #1-10. #10 was Arizona this year and was the Pac 12 replacement.
• In 2015 - CFP #12 (SEC replacement), #16 (Big 12 replacement), and #18 (non Big 5 conf champ) joined CFP #1-9.
• In 2016 - CFP #11 (ACC replacement), #14 (SEC replacement), and #15 (non Big 5 conf champ).

Maybe I'm just not understanding it but I really dont think PSU could feel guaranteed a spot until/unless they get in the top 9 in the final rankings. More importantly, I dont think PSU is #11 in this week's CFP rankings--if they are, great but I think they are in the #13-14 range.

The Group of 5 conference champion definitely holds true and is likely to be ranked lower than #12 as it has been the past three years (UCF could get that high by the end of the season)

Those Power 5 replacement teams in 2014-16 were for bowls that had contractual ties to the conferences:

2014: Orange Bowl selects ACC team #12 Georgia Tech to replace ACC champion Florida State that went to the playoff (Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take an ACC team); #11 Kansas State is left out of the NY6

2015: Sugar Bowl selects SEC team #12 Mississippi to replace SEC champion Alabama that went to the playoff; Sugar Bowl selects Big XII team #16 Oklahoma State to replace Big XII champion Oklahoma that went to the playoff (Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take an SEC team vs. a Big XII team); #10 North Carolina and #11 TCU are left out of the NY6 (bowls that make replacement picks have latitude in which replacement team from the contracted conference they take, and the Sugar Bowl used OSU's win over TCU that season as a "tiebreaker" instead of the final CFP ranking)

2016: Orange Bowl selects ACC team #11 Florida State to replace ACC champion Clemson that went to the playoff; Sugar Bowl selects SEC team #14 Auburn to replace SEC champion Alabama that went to the playoff (same contractual obligations by the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl); #10 Colorado is left out of the NY6

This year, a Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-12, or SEC non-champion (or Notre Dame, for that matter) cannot be selected to the NY6 bowls ahead of a higher ranked team (except for the miniscule chance of the Orange Bowl's Big Ten/SEC/ND pick; there will almost certainly be a Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame team available ranked between 5 and 11). An ACC non-champion could be selected to the Orange Bowl and push a higher ranked team out of the NY6, but given the current standings, the ACC team that the Orange Bowl selects will probably be ranked higher than #12 anyway.

So, if Penn State is #11, they could only be passed up by a Power 5 conference champion (they should all be ranked higher than 11 this year) or an ACC team (i.e., Miami (FL) wins the ACC over Clemson, Clemson falls to #12, #12 Clemson would go to the Orange Bowl and #11 Penn State would be left out of the NY6). If Miami (FL) and Clemson both make the playoff somehow, then a, say, #12 (or lower) Virginia Tech would be selected to the Orange Bowl, also leaving #11 Penn State out of the NY6.

Those scenarios aren't very likely (I don't think Clemson or Miami would fall that far after losing the ACC championship), so #11 is really the breaking point this year. Maybe if Miami loses to Notre Dame and Clemson they might fall down to #12 or lower, but I don't think so. Do note that NC State could still win the ACC if Clemson loses to Florida State on Saturday, which would throw a wrench in things.

 

[PSUinSTL]

The Group of 5 conference champion definitely holds true and is likely to be ranked lower than #12 as it has been the past three years (UCF could get that high by the end of the season)

Those Power 5 replacement teams in 2014-16 were for bowls that had contractual ties to the conferences:

2014: Orange Bowl selects ACC team #12 Georgia Tech to replace ACC champion Florida State that went to the playoff (Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take an ACC team); #11 Kansas State is left out of the NY6

2015: Sugar Bowl selects SEC team #12 Mississippi to replace SEC champion Alabama that went to the playoff; Sugar Bowl selects Big XII team #16 Oklahoma State to replace Big XII champion Oklahoma that went to the playoff (Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take an SEC team vs. a Big XII team); #10 North Carolina and #11 TCU are left out of the NY6 (bowls that make replacement picks have latitude in which replacement team from the contracted conference they take, and the Sugar Bowl used OSU's win over TCU that season as a "tiebreaker" instead of the final CFP ranking)

2016: Orange Bowl selects ACC team #11 Florida State to replace ACC champion Clemson that went to the playoff; Sugar Bowl selects SEC team #14 Auburn to replace SEC champion Alabama that went to the playoff (same contractual obligations by the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl); #10 Colorado is left out of the NY6

This year, a Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-12, or SEC non-champion (or Notre Dame, for that matter) cannot be selected to the NY6 bowls ahead of a higher ranked team (except for the miniscule chance of the Orange Bowl's Big Ten/SEC/ND pick; there will almost certainly be a Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame team available ranked between 5 and 11). An ACC non-champion could be selected to the Orange Bowl and push a higher ranked team out of the NY6, but given the current standings, the ACC team that the Orange Bowl selects will probably be ranked higher than #12 anyway.

So, if Penn State is #11, they could only be passed up by a Power 5 conference champion (they should all be ranked higher than 11 this year) or an ACC team (i.e., Miami (FL) wins the ACC over Clemson, Clemson falls to #12, #12 Clemson would go to the Orange Bowl and #11 Penn State would be left out of the NY6). If Miami (FL) and Clemson both make the playoff somehow, then a, say, #12 (or lower) Virginia Tech would be selected to the Orange Bowl, also leaving #11 Penn State out of the NY6.

Those scenarios aren't very likely (I don't think Clemson or Miami would fall that far after losing the ACC championship), so #11 is really the breaking point this year. Maybe if Miami loses to Notre Dame and Clemson they might fall down to #12 or lower, but I don't think so. Do note that NC State could still win the ACC if Clemson loses to Florida State on Saturday, which would throw a wrench in things.

Spot on Post.
However - NCState winning the ACC really doesn't throw a wrench in things. If Clemson lost to FSU they would likely fall below us. If NC St won the ACC - the ACC would still only get 2 teams in. Clemson wouldn't get in over us if Miami was the ACC2.
I get the point of the rankings - but regardless of rankings (in relation to PSU) the ACC will get 2 teams in. If both teams are below us that means we are that much higher.

 

[N&B4PSU]

first, we have to win the last 3 games. period.

I'm comfortable that if osu beats msu and we win out, that anyone picking a bowl opponent will take us over msu.... at least in the old days.

However... I'm pretty sure SB and Gesicki won't play, and that might change things. [the other SB, Blacknall, likely plays to try and impress the scouts].

If our players indicate they will play if it's a top bowl game, we get the nod over msu.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Thought I'd drop this in here. Pretty funny. Poor OSU.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I disagree.

If the SEC gets 3 that leaves 9 spots for
Infact - I assume they will.
Here are my spots (as I laid out in my post
1) Bama
2) UGA
3) Auburn
4) ND
5) Clemson
6) Miami or VT
7) Oklahoma
8) Washington
9) TCU or Ok State
10) UCF
11) Wiscy or BIG Champ
12) PSU

If BIG12/PAC12 both get 2 (which is unlikely) then yes - we are in trouble
Look at the PAC12. If UW loses again - do they get in over us? They were behind us with less losses. Everybody else has 2 losses. We are ranked higher then all of them except USC - the only 2 loss team that could get an atlarge over us (if it ended today) would be UW (if USC doesn't lose again they get the auto bid)
Look at the Big12. Right now - there are 3 teams. Assume worst case scenario for us (TCU/OU play twice and split) - that leaves 3 teams eligible for the NY6. Would 2 big12 teams with 2 losses have a stronger case? Our resume compares well to all of them (except perhaps OU). Iowa/Mds wins over the BIG 12 help us.

There are 3 SEC teams in play
Bama/UGA/Auburn.
If Auburn loses 1 time they won't be ahead of us in the rankings.
If Auburn Wins out - that means Georgia would have 2 losses. Chances are they would fall behind us with 2 losses unless they were 'flukes' or really close losses
I don't see 3 SEC teams in unless 2 BIG teams are in.

Now the BIG.
Either MSU/OSU will have a 3rd loss this weekend. We will be ahead of them - considering we lost to both by the slimmest of margins on their field - most people will negate the head to head results and focus on body of work (and neither is better than ours) considering they haven't beaten anybody we didn't.
UM won't jump us regardless of what they do - as they can't have less losses than us - and the head to head results (come into play because losses are equal).
That leaves the Wiscy/BIGE loser to potentially be ahead of us.
While it is possible that they remain ahead of us - i don't think it is likely. OSU would have 3 losses including 2 'ugly' losses. our 2 losses were again close and on the road. The committee will likely take that into account.
If MSU loses - That would be 3 losses. They will likely be behind us as well. The committee will consider we lost on a last 2nd play in bad weather on the road after a 3.5 hour delay.

MSU hasn't lit the world on fire - they have had tight wins. We have had 3 close games.
I think if we dominate the last 3 weeks - that will be the difference. We will have had 9 'easy' wins. One nail biter (in a very tough environment that sees top teams lose regularly (see UM last year and OSU this year). And 2 losses that we were in position to win until the last minute.

The circumstances of our losses help us. I honestly believe that we will get a pass of the losses to the extent that we can (assuming we play well the last 3 weeks).

I think the committee might surprise people tonight and rank higher than many feel (might be higher than either OSU/MSU)

I guess we will know in a few hours today. If PSU starts too low in the rankings, then they will have too far to catch up to get in the top 9 (yes, I'm still maintaining that they need to be in the top 9 as the #10 team has been left out in 2015 and 2016 (only made it in 2014) and #11 team has only made it in 2016.

Also, the CFP committee may not be weighing the number of losses as apples and apples. If a team has a 3rd loss in a close conference championship game does or should that hurt them when compared to a team that has two losses, no division title, and maybe not that big win?

 

[blion72]

We have Zero Chance at the playoffs
We have about 10-15% Chance at a NY6

Wisky, OSU, and Mich St will be selected over us.

agree with this, AND i am not even sure we will win out over Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland (away). this team is right now well off where it was when we played UM. we are in a tight spot right now.