TV Alert PSU at Illinois on BTN tonight at 7. Another winnable game if they
- Thread starter CattyGuy51
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All of the remaining games (save for playing above their potential @ PU) are winnable games, but also lose-able games. Even though Illinois is 2-10 on the season, we will be tested tonight on the road. I think that this team is finally getting past being lackadaisical, so I fully expect us to control and win this game.
This is more than a winnable game, it would be a huge dissapointment if Penn State didn’t win. That isn’t to say that Illinois is chopped liver... just that Penn State is playing very well recently and should be able to take care of business. Losing against Illinois tonight would mean that Penn State would likely have to win against tOSU, Michigan, and Nebraska to be in the conversation for a post season tournament.
Penn State would have to go 0-5 to miss out on the NIT. Good luck finding an 8-win Big Ten team left out of the NIT. It's never happened. They don't care about RPI. They'll gobble up any big school with a qualifying record that was close to .500 in their conference.
4-1 most likely gets them into the NCAA tournament.
The NIT is influenced greatly by how many conference champions win their tournament. Those that don't get an automatic bid. I would think we'd be a lock for the NIT if we go 2-3 but you never know how it shakes out. There's no excuse if they don't win tonight. This is a MUST win against a bad (not pathetic but bad) team
Agreed. 8-10 gets us in the NIT. 9-9 get's us in the NIT AND home court advantage for the first 2 rounds. 10-8 gets us on the verge of the bubble, but good NIT seeding. 11-7 and a respectable performance in the BTT gets us in the dance. 12-6 gets us in, regardless of our BTT performance.
NIT has taken 6-12 Big Ten teams before. They've taken teams outside the Top 100 in RPI. Anyone who thinks we need 2 wins to "maybe" get into the NIT is out to freaking lunch and cursed with a form of pessimism that I hope isn't contagious or the world is f'd. NIT would snatch us up in a heart beat and not even think twice about it. They are out to make as much money as they can from that event, period.
4-1 probably gets us in as long as we don't throw up on ourselves in the BTT.
I hope that you are right, but am not so confident of the committee’s opinion and decisions. I am confident in the teams ability to finish strong, however. I predict a 4-1 and at worst a 3-2 finish. I hop I’m right, and in case I’m not, I hope that you are right.
I don't think there's a such thing as a lock with this program and the NIT. I think we're probably in and should be in if we go 2-3. I also know if 10-12 conference champions lose that's going to throw everything off. Let's see how these next couple weeks play out. I still think a Purdue win is a must to get in barring a semi final run in the B1G given our "bad losses" and lack of quality wins
Yea, you can repeat yourself til your blue in the face and you'd still be wrong.
Let's hope we go 4-1 and go out in the quarters of the B1G and see if we get in then. You think it's a lock. I think we're last 4-8 out. Only one way to find out
There have been many 8-10 B1G teams left out of the NIT. So it certainly has happened. Especially with a resume like the one that we'd have. I see very little chance that 8-10 PSU team would make the NIT.
Dratings.com who has both NCAA and NIT projections has us as the last team in the NEXT 4 OUT and currently a 2 seed in the NIT so its not that far fetched if we can make a late run
Is this since the NCAA bought the NIT a few years ago?? Selection criteria changed at that point. It used to be a .500 overall record in a P5 conf gets you in... not anymore though, and there are numerous examples
Instead of blowing smoke, name them please. I'll do it for you because it's probably hard work for you: There's been one. Northwestern 2015-16. They had zero Top 40 wins, and were 117th in RPI. That's the only one since we've gone to the 18 conference game format. Even if we go 1-4, Our RPI will be 20-25 spots higher than that our our metrics (BPI, KenPom, etc..), which committees can and do use, will be somewhere around 50th.
Below .500 in Conference Big Ten NIT Bids (RPI in parenthesis)
2017 - Illinois 8-10 (61), Indiana 7-11 (82)
2014 - Minnesota 8-10 (34), Illinois 7-11 (61)
2012 - Northwestern 8-10 (56), Iowa 8-10 (125!!), Minnesota 6-12 !!! (61)
2011 - Northwestern 7-11 (78)
2010 - Northwestern 7-11 (114)
2009 - Northwestern 8-10 (78)
2008 - Minnesota 8-10 (107)
and before we were playing 18 conference games:
2006 - Penn State 6-10 (118), Minnesota 5-11 (83)
"Many" teams left out. What a joke. ONE has, and multiple 7-11 teams have gotten in, two 6 win teams (us once), AND a 5-11 MINNESOTA!!
If you seriously think we need two wins to get into the NIT, have your wife wear an "I'm With Stupid" t-shirt for the rest of your life.
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We are currently 45th in Kenpom rankings. If we go 4-1 that would include a win over a top 10 team and we would move up the Kenpom ratings well into the 30s. I would think 3-2 leaves PSU out of the NCAA’s baring a deep big 10 tourney run.
Unfortunately they lost the Iowa and Wisconsin games which were 100% winnable. With 2 more wins PSU would be In a great position to make the dance.
Unfortunately they lost the Iowa and Wisconsin games which were 100% winnable. With 2 more wins PSU would be In a great position to make the dance.
In the eyes of our resume, the closest we have had to a bad loss is Wisky. Rider certainly was not a "bad" loss - they are a 2nd quartile loss, which is acceptable. The lack of quality wins is what gets us, though. @ OSU being the only signature win so far - BUT, we have many opportunities from here on out: @PU, OSU, Mich, @Neb. If we sweep OSU, Michigan, and Nebraska, I think that we are it, regardless of the PU game.
Purdue was 16-18.
Michigan was 16-16.
Teams not above .500 are almost never taken. Those aren't qualifying teams.
18-13 (8-10) is a lock.
11-7 and one in the BTT is good enough. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless. Hot teams have tons of cache with the committee. Finishing 8-2 over your last 10 with two wins over OSU, one vs Michigan, and one at Nebraska? Buy a clue if you don't think that'll be enough. Maybe under the old archaic methods, but RPI is being phased out. KenPom and other metrics will be front and center on the team sheets for the first time.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/
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11-7, with the loss to Purdue probably puts us in the 5-12 game. I ran the scenario of us then beating Illinois, and losing to Nebraska at MSG. RPI is 58. And frankly, the rest of the resume wouldn't be all that great. We'd be firmly on the bubble, and would sweat a lot of other results in early March.
I've got more than just a clue when it comes to this stuff, and that resume isn't nearly the lock that you're portraying.
95% In. It would take multiple mid-major locks like New Mexico State, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Rhode Island to drop their conference tournament to teams that are out to keep us out if we win 4+1.
On pure resume, it is bubblelicious. But Hot teams with outside the bubble resumes get pushed up and in every single year.
Moore with a nice block and rebound, then Garner throws up a terrible 3. Illinois goes down and hits an open 3. 6-point turnaround.
To be fair...Garner hit a deep three on the possession before that...maybe a heat check. Garner's playing well early IMO
This may be the first time I have seen Moore play like he is as tall as he is..... Pleasant surprise!!
