Penn State vs. Kentucky, Citrus Bowl, Jan 1st 1pm, ABC

[Judge Smails]

College football odds, picks, lines for 2018 Bowl Games: Advanced computer model backing Oklahoma State, Penn State

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

One of the top college football bowl picks the model is extremely high on: No. 12 Penn State (-6.5) covers against No. 14 Kentucky in the 2019 Citrus Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Wildcats clearly exceeded expectations this season, but their second half of the season wasn't nearly as impressive as the first. They dropped three of their last five conference games, including a 24-7 defeat at the hands of 5-7 Tennessee. Penn State, meanwhile, won five of its last six games to enter the postseason with plenty of momentum. James Franklin's squad held Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland to a combined 20 points to close out the season.

The model projects Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley to account for over 250 yards of total offense against a tough Kentucky defense. That helps the Nittany Lions cover in 60 percent of simulations, while the Under (47.5) has plenty of value as well because that hits over 60 percent of the time. Penn State continues its dominating point differential this season of +14.6, compared to Kentucky's +7.8.

 

[Judge Smails]

Big Ten mouthpiece Teddy Greenstein picks UK of course...

Citrus: Penn State (minus 6.5) vs. Kentucky: Penn State will say goodbye to Trace McSorley. Kentucky will bid adieu to tailback Benny Snell. And half the bettors will say adios to their money. Tough call here, but I’ll go with the rugged SEC defense and those 6.5 points. UK it is.

 

[Judge Smails]

Journal and Courier

VRBO CITRUS

Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley (9) reacts after scoring his second rushing touchdown against Maryland during the first half of an NCAA college football game in State College, Pa., Saturday, Nov. 24, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Knight) (Photo: The Associated Press)


Penn State vs. Kentucky

When: Tuesday, Jan. 1

Where: Orlando (Camping World Stadium)

Time/TV: 1 p.m. (ABC)

Line: Penn State by 7

Why watch: Josh Allen, is one of the nation’s top defenders, and is the key player on the Wildcats’ ferocious defense. They’ll have to deal with quarterback Trace McSorley, who closes out an outstanding career with the Nittany Lions.

The pick: Penn State 31-22. McSorley goes out in style.

 

[Judge Smails]

Rotoworld

12. Citrus Bowl (January 1) -- Kentucky +6.5 Penn State -- This is not the Nittany Lions team of a year ago. That much has become clear. Last year’s team saw a perfect troika in QB Trace McSorley, RB Saquon Barkley and OC Joe Moorhead. With Barkley and Moorhead gone, McSorley has struggled to truly spark in the passing game, with Penn State entering this bowl game with an S&P+ No. 65 passing attack. Kentucky has serious issues on offense outside of star RB Benny Snell, but they also have a rock-solid awesome defense (S&P+ No. 11!). McSorley will get his yards on the ground, and Miles Sanders could have a nice game, but don’t expect a ton of points on the scoreboard from either squad. We’ll take the rock-solid awesome defense in that case.

 

[Judge Smails]

Miller, Lions still eying season sack record

At present, the Nittany Lions have done exactly that 43 times this season for 274 yards in losses. The number is the best among all Big Ten teams and is, in fact, the highest sacks-per-game average among all Football Bowl Subdivision programs this season at 3.58 per outing.

To get to Miller’s promised land, though, the Nittany Lions will need to rack up a season-best seven sacks against a Kentucky team that has allowed just 24 on the season at an average of only two per game.

Among the most prolific for the Nittany Lions in the category, finishing the regular season with 7.0 sacks for 59 yards in losses, behind only Yetur Gross Matos (8.0 for 58 yards lost) and Robert Windsor (7.5 for 43 yards lost), the goal still feels possible. Even if the Nittany Lions were unable to reach 50, tying or improving upon the 47 sacks set three times at Penn State, in 1998, 1999, and 1979, would be significant.

 

[Judge Smails]

Greenfield Recorder

VRB Citrus Bowl, 1 p.m., ABC

No. 12 Penn St. (9-3) vs. No. 14 Kentucky (9-3)

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fl.

Line: Penn St. 6 (48)

ATS: Penn St. 7-5; Ky. 5-7

SOS: Penn St. 12; Ky. 15

ONE LINERS: Penn State QB Trace McSorley’s 2,284 yards passing and 723 rushing yards complemented Miles Sanders’ 1,223 yards on 207 carries. Nittany Lions won five of last six but 11 fumbles are third-highest in FBS. Kentucky’s offense keyed by Benny Snell Jr.’s 1,305 rushing yards and 14 TDs, defense driven by Josh Allen’s 14 sacks— fourth-most in FBS.

Pick: Penn State

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Those are certainly some remarkable numbers Judge!

 

[PennsylvaniaPride]

College football odds, picks, lines for 2018 Bowl Games: Advanced computer model backing Oklahoma State, Penn State

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

One of the top college football bowl picks the model is extremely high on: No. 12 Penn State (-6.5) covers against No. 14 Kentucky in the 2019 Citrus Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Wildcats clearly exceeded expectations this season, but their second half of the season wasn't nearly as impressive as the first. They dropped three of their last five conference games, including a 24-7 defeat at the hands of 5-7 Tennessee. Penn State, meanwhile, won five of its last six games to enter the postseason with plenty of momentum. James Franklin's squad held Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland to a combined 20 points to close out the season.

The model projects Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley to account for over 250 yards of total offense against a tough Kentucky defense. That helps the Nittany Lions cover in 60 percent of simulations, while the Under (47.5) has plenty of value as well because that hits over 60 percent of the time. Penn State continues its dominating point differential this season of +14.6, compared to Kentucky's +7.8.

Not much excitement for this game. Hopefully Penn StAte rolls.

 

[Judge Smails]

Kentucky has serious issues on offense outside of star RB Benny Snell, but they also have a rock-solid awesome defense (S&P+ No. 11!). McSorley will get his yards on the ground, and Miles Sanders could have a nice game, but don’t expect a ton of points on the scoreboard from either squad. We’ll take the rock-solid awesome defense in that case.

Yards Per Play Allowed
Kentucky 5.23
Penn State 4.69

 

[Judge Smails]

JASUN74
Blue Chip Prospect
Location:Eastern Kentucky
UK-32. PENN ST-3. Write it Down. Lol. I see a coming out party for the future of Kentucky Football, plus a unbelievable performance by our Seniors.

I’m not so sure, that after the first half, Pennsylvania State will want to come back for another half of Big Blue Punishment!
We Ready!!

 

[BobPSU92]

JASUN74
Blue Chip Prospect
Location:Eastern Kentucky
UK-32. PENN ST-3. Write it Down. Lol. I see a coming out party for the future of Kentucky Football, plus a unbelievable performance by our Seniors.

I’m not so sure, that after the first half, Pennsylvania State will want to come back for another half of Big Blue Punishment!
We Ready!!

We're screwed.

 

[Obliviax]

Thanks Judge...I need to get into this game (not that it means anything). And, of course, that is the problem. It all comes down to how badly this team wants this game. We've got a handful of seniors, led by Trace. We also have a couple of kids that will play and leave early for the NFL. But this game isn't the game they hoped for. They really played all year expecting to play in the Rose or playoff. Playing KY in the Citrus Bowl is not exciting. Sorry.

In some ways, KY is PSU three years ago. They are trying to build a program and their seniors feel they can leave a legacy. They are pumped to play a top tier team and national draw on NYD. So they are uber motivated.

A lot comes down to just wanting to play football. I loved playing and every game was an opportunity no matter the opponent. We never needed to get "up" to play. I am hopeful this team feels the same way after a somewhat disappointing season.

In addition, we came down the stretch with 1/2 of a starting QB. I am pretty sure Trace will be 100%. I am also pretty sure JJ is 100%. So I am looking forward to seeing a heathy offense for a change.

In the end, Trace and the seniors will need to whip the team into investing in this game. We've seen, way too many times, top tier teams get throttled in lesser bowls because they don't want to be there. PSU will win, as long as they match intensity and desire. If not, KY is a good team and won't fold easily.

 

[Judge Smails]

 

[interrobang]

Kentucky has this great rushing offense, yet Penn State has a higher ypc

Kentucky has this great rushing defense, yet Kentucky allows a higher ypc

 

[BobPSU92]

View embedded media

Did Franklin just deck that guy?

 

[bdgan]

Thanks Judge...I need to get into this game (not that it means anything). And, of course, that is the problem. It all comes down to how badly this team wants this game. We got a handful of seniors, led by Trace. We also have a couple of kids that will play and leave early for the NFL. But this game isn't the game they hoped for. They really played all year expecting to play in the Rose or playoff. Playing KY in the Citrus Bowl is not exciting. Sorry.

In some ways, KY is PSU three years ago. They are trying to build a program and their seniors feel they can leave a legacy. They are pumped to play a top tier team and national draw on NYD. So they are uber motivated.

A lot comes down to just wanting to play football. I loved playing and every game was an opportunity no matter the opponent. We never needed to get "up" to play. I am hopeful this team feels the same way after a somewhat disappointing season.

In addition, we came down the stretch with 1/2 of a starting QB. I am pretty sure Trace will be 100%. I am also pretty sure JJ is 100%. So I am looking forward to seeing a heathy offense for a change.

In the end, Trace and the seniors will need to whip the team into investing in this game. We've seen, way too many times, top tier teams get throttled in lesser bowls because they don't want to be there. PSU will win, as long as they match intensity and desire. If not, KY is a good team and won't fold easily.

Seems to me that this is an NFL audition for seniors and kids looking to leave early. It's also an audition for the second team kids to show that they deserve a starting role in 2019. The players should be motivated. Of course they are kids and they're being wined and dined in Florida. It's the staff's job to keep them focused.

 

[Judge Smails]

Did Franklin just deck that guy?

Yup. Then marked it down on his chart.

"Juwan Johnson dropped pass. Decked his ass: ✔"

 

[34EVER]

Snell gets all the attention but Sanders only has around 80 less yards on 50+ less carries. Expected considering he followed Barkley and having Trace there, but Sanders really hasn't gotten any national attention this year.

 

[BobPSU92]

Yup. Then marked it down on his chart.

"Juwan Johnson dropped pass. Decked his ass: ✔"

 

[PennsylvaniaPride]

Snell gets all the attention but Sanders only has around 80 less yards on 50+ less carries. Expected considering he followed Barkley and having Trace there, but Sanders really hasn't gotten any national attention this year.

Snell ran in the mighty SEC. In SEC country they make fun of people who follow other sports than football. Football 365/24/7. Shut about hockey, basketball, and wrestling.

 

[Obliviax]

Seems to me that this is an NFL audition for seniors and kids looking to leave early. It's also an audition for the second team kids to show that they deserve a starting role in 2019. The players should be motivated. Of course they are kids and they're being wined and dined in Florida. It's the staff's job to keep them focused.

I agree. But there seems to be an edge that gets lost for many top teams who aren't in the bowl they wanted.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Thanks Judge...I need to get into this game (not that it means anything). And, of course, that is the problem. It all comes down to how badly this team wants this game. We got a handful of seniors, led by Trace. We also have a couple of kids that will play and leave early for the NFL. But this game isn't the game they hoped for. They really played all year expecting to play in the Rose or playoff. Playing KY in the Citrus Bowl is not exciting. Sorry.

In some ways, KY is PSU three years ago. They are trying to build a program and their seniors feel they can leave a legacy. They are pumped to play a top tier team and national draw on NYD. So they are uber motivated.

A lot comes down to just wanting to play football. I loved playing and every game was an opportunity no matter the opponent. We never needed to get "up" to play. I am hopeful this team feels the same way after a somewhat disappointing season.

In addition, we came down the stretch with 1/2 of a starting QB. I am pretty sure Trace will be 100%. I am also pretty sure JJ is 100%. So I am looking forward to seeing a heathy offense for a change.

In the end, Trace and the seniors will need to whip the team into investing in this game. We've seen, way too many times, top tier teams get throttled in lesser bowls because they don't want to be there. PSU will win, as long as they match intensity and desire. If not, KY is a good team and won't fold easily.

I agree with what you are saying. The reality is our team was very inconsistent all year - from quarter to quarter and game to game. Take a look at the last two games - against Rutgers and MD. We probably played our worst game of the year against the worst team on our schedule (Rutgers). Then, one week later, we played our best game of the year on both sides of the ball against MD.

Reading the KY boards, it is pretty evident their entire team really wants to win this game badly - there was absolutely no thought from their NFL draft picks (running back and linebacker) of sitting this game out. They have a senior laden team on defense that wants to establish their legacy by winning 10 games, especially against one of the blue-blood names in college football.

For those that will jump up and tell me how motivated we will be because of Trace's last game, 10 wins, etc. etc. - look no further than the MSU game. We should have been motivated to win that game due to pay-back from the 2017 game and more importantly, all our 2018 goals were still in front of us. Yet, we somehow come out and played arguably the worst game of the CJF era.

We have a more talented roster than KY and a higher ceiling. Yet, it's a coin flip game to me - if we play like we did against Rutgers, we lose. If we play like we did against MD, we win. I have no idea which team will show up.

 

[GregInPitt]

Kentucky has this great rushing offense, yet Penn State has a higher ypc

Kentucky has this great rushing defense, yet Kentucky allows a higher ypc

Just more over the top SEC hype??

 

[wilbury]

Good summary, so often these meaningless bowl games come down to motivation. Kentucky has all of the motivation, we have little. It all comes down to how much the seniors and the coach can get the team up for the game. On the positive side, I think Kentucky might be a little over motivated and over confident for this game. We've always played pretty well in bowl games, so I'm hoping that trend continues.

 

[Judge Smails]

 

[Connorpozlee]

Spoke to a guy at the store on Christmas Eve. I was wearing a Penn State sweatshirt so of course that sparked a conversation. Guy asked what I thought of the game and I gave him my brief analysis. He responds with, “Yeah, I’m just not sure your guys can hang with the SEC speed.” I started laughing, he did not, and I said, “Oh, does Kentucky get to pick any group of fast SEC players they want or do they have to use players already in the Kentucky roster.” He said, “You’ll see... you’ll see.”

 

[2020 is Our Year]

Snell gets all the attention but Sanders only has around 80 less yards on 50+ less carries. Expected considering he followed Barkley and having Trace there, but Sanders really hasn't gotten any national attention this year.

Sanders performed poorly against Ohio State and Michigan in his first year as a starter. He wasn't going to get much national attention. That fumble against Ohio State was a back-breaker for us. Nine touchdowns didn't help either especially when more than half came against App State and Illinois. He only scored once in the last 5 games. It isn't fair but on a national level (and even here to a lesser extent) he's going to be compared to Barkley. No one can live up to that. It will be easier for Slade, Cain and Ford because the comparison won't be so fresh.

Snell had 3 really good years. That's helps when you're already on the minds of the national media when the season starts. Snell deserves his accolades IMO.

 

[BobPSU92]

Good summary, so often these meaningless bowl games come down to motivation. Kentucky has all of the motivation, we have little. It all comes down to how much the seniors and the coach can get the team up for the game. On the positive side, I think Kentucky might be a little over motivated and over confident for this game. We've always played pretty well in bowl games, so I'm hoping that trend continues.

Who says we have little motivation? We have no idea what our guys are feeling.

 

[Obliviax]

Who says we have little motivation? We have no ideas what our guys are feeling.

its true. but have often been struck at how the mood of the fans seems to parallel that of the team. Contrast that of the Cleveland Browns who have just been eliminated but very, very excited to be able to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs this weekend, if they can.

I am not feeling it and don't feel like many of the fans are either.

 

[Ski]

Spoke to a guy at the store on Christmas Eve. I was wearing a Penn State sweatshirt so of course that sparked a conversation. Guy asked what I thought of the game and I gave him my brief analysis. He responds with, “Yeah, I’m just not sure your guys can hang with the SEC speed.” I started laughing, he did not, and I said, “Oh, does Kentucky get to pick any group of fast SEC players they want or do they have to use players already in the Kentucky roster.” He said, “You’ll see... you’ll see.”

Totally unrelated tangent. The talk of southern speed reminded me of Arizona 1999 and Camp Cochise, which led me to this bit in an article that I had never heard of before today:

'East coast drought causes field problems

The heat wave that baked the eastern United States this summer left most of Pennsylvania in a drought, forcing Penn State officials to get creative in terms of keeping the field at Beaver Stadium alive.

Creative is one way to put it anyway.

The Nittany Lions' groundskeepers pumped water from the nearby nuclear reactor onto the field. The water was not contaminated with radiation, as it was only used to cool the reactor and had no contact with any radioactive materials.

At least one Wildcat, though, was a bit taken aback by the news of what PSU did.

"So what, I'm supposed to fear cancer now?" senior fullback Jim Wendler said with a laugh. "Are my kids going to have six heads?"

Wendler said he wasn't sure if it was "dedication or stupidity, but we'll find out in 30 years." '

http://wc.arizona.edu/papers/93/1/72_1_m.html

 

[Judge Smails]

Who says we have little motivation? We have no ideas what our guys are feeling.

Mostly posters I already have on ignore...

 

[royboy]

its true. but have often been struck at how the mood of the fans seems to parallel that of the team. Contrast that of the Cleveland Browns who have just been eliminated but very, very excited to be able to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs this weekend, if they can.

I am not feeling it and don't feel like many of the fans are either.

Well, I respect your opinions, Obli, but I think this PSU team takes care of business. Trace will come up big, and the young guys in the lineup (Parsons, Dotson, Friermuth, Hamler, etc.) will show their skills.

PSU 31
KY 10

 

[Obliviax]

Well, I respect your opinions, Obli, but I think this PSU team takes care of business. Trace will come up big, and the young guys in the lineup (Parsons, Dotson, Friermuth, Hamler, etc.) will show their skills.

PSU 31
KY 10

I hope you are correct, Roy. And, of course, I know nothing other than my own feelings. But I've seen, way too often, teams come in flat when they are at a bowl that doesn't get their juices flowing. And, I am not making that prediction.

I also expect PSU to take care of business, as long as we play our A game. I expect a ten point win. Trace will be healthy for the first time since the first half of Ohio State.

 

[2020 is Our Year]

Well, I respect your opinions, Obli, but I think this PSU team takes care of business. Trace will come up big, and the young guys in the lineup (Parsons, Dotson, Friermuth, Hamler, etc.) will show their skills.

PSU 31
KY 10

Anything is possible but it is reasonable to expect Kentucky to be "more up" for this game. We're likely disappointed that we didn't make the playoff or at least a NY6 games. This is a step back for the program. For Kentucky, this is a huge step forward.

Who knows what will motivates individuals though. Maybe the guys will get up to send Trace and other seniors out a winner? Never know

All that said, other than Maryland we haven't blown anyone out since Illinois. Even Rutgers stayed with 13. I'd be surprised if we won by 3+ scores.

 

[BobPSU92]

It is stupid, pointless, and a waste of time to debate whether or not our team is motivated for the bowl game. Of course, this obvious point will not stop anyone from continuing this stupid, pointless waste of time.

 

[Obliviax]

It is stupid, pointless, and a waste of time to debate whether or not our team is motivated for the bowl game. Of course, this obvious point will not stop anyone from continuing this stupid, pointless waste of time.

On the other hand, kids from schools across the nation are so under motivated that they skip the game entirely to prep for the NFL combine.

 

[Judge Smails]

This is a step back for the program.

If we win, we will finish in the Top 10 again. What a horrible step back for the program. Not sure how they will recover.

 

[2020 is Our Year]

If we win, we will finish in the Top 10 again. What a horrible step back for the program. Not sure how they will recover.

Not making a NY6 bowl is a step back regardless of how you want to spin it. All I stated was "a step back". A factual statement even if the reality of the situation frustrates you.

I don't know why you're talking about "if we win". The bowl game itself is the discussion as we're discussing finding motivation. It is a step back from the Rose and Fiesta. Again, fact not opinion.

 

[Judge Smails]

Not making a NY6 bowl is a step back regardless of how you want to spin it. All I stated was "a step back". A factual statement even if the reality of the situation frustrates you.

I don't know why you're talking about "if we win". The bowl game itself is the discussion as we're discussing finding motivation. It is a step back from the Rose and Fiesta. Again, fact not opinion.

Super. The bowl game is a step back, it's not a NY6 bowl game. Through a quirky end of season, a Top 12 rating at the end of the season doesn't result in a NY 6 bowl berth, which is rare.

When the bowl game is over, if we win, we will finish in the Top 10 with the ink drying on a Top 4 recruiting class based on average ranking. You focus on meaningless minutiae, I'll look at the big picture. Now you go on ignore as a troll.

 

[Obliviax]

Not making a NY6 bowl is a step back regardless of how you want to spin it. All I stated was "a step back". A factual statement even if the reality of the situation frustrates you.

I don't know why you're talking about "if we win". The bowl game itself is the discussion as we're discussing finding motivation. It is a step back from the Rose and Fiesta. Again, fact not opinion.

c'mon now...all of our kids are perfect, our coach is perfect, our program is perfect, we will win all of our games, we will be 112% motivated, and every year is better than the year before.