let's talk predictions!

[Obliviax]

Home, white out, bad weather, celebrities, it has it all.

Iowa Background

• rain favors iowa to be a low scoring affair with turnovers
• Iowa out their two RBs and TE although that ones playing are good and experienced
• Iowa has played nobody and has not faced anywhere near the talent PSU has
  • Beat Utah State 24-14 (lost to Air Force in a blowout)
  • Beat Iowa State 20-13 (Iowa state just lost to Ohio U)
  • Beat Western Michigan 41-10 (lost to Syracuse 48-7)

Game

• Iowa will run a basic offense to keep it close and hope to get a break
• Rain helps
• Iowa hasn't faced a defense in the same continent as PSUs
• Having said that, they always play us tough and Flash Ferentz is a very good coach
• PSU's Offense is very explosive but really hasn't had consistent chunk plays
• While PSU has played a much more difficult schedule so far (WVU and ILL), Iowa's defense is the best we'll have seen so far
• PSU hasn't had a turnover including zero INTs from a first-year, true sophomore second-year player
• PSU should be at close to full strength with the exception of the kids out for the season

Prediction

• Iowa follows the ILL script thinking that if they can keep from turning it over (ILL had 4) and can get a turnover, they have a shot
• Iowa will play the same defense, two deep/everyone else crowding the line. Challenge the short passing game and run while keeping S back in case someone gets through the front 9
• PSU plays a balanced defense being more concerned about the QB passing than the run game and makes adjustments as needed
• PSU hasn't run a lot of slants and this could change. Also, look for more TE involvement as we try to attack with a more balanced offense. I look for the intermediate pass game to be open as Iowa looks to stop the run and deep plays.
• PSU will have to be patient and perform better in the red zone than we did against ILL. I look for a better game from Allar as ILL was a much more physical and disciplined defense than anything he's played against this season. He'll be more prepared.
• I look for a slog-it-out, physical, hard-hitting, trench game. Especially if the rain is heavy. Again, PSU will have to be patient on offense while being stout on defense to stop the run and short passing game of Iowa.
• Close at the half, PSU pulls away in the 3rd, just as we did vs ILL and WVU
• If PSU limits turnovers, I just don't see how Iowa's offense can sustain and that their defense will wear out
• PSU 31 and Iowa 10.

 

[NittanyChris]

Very fair assessment. My prediction was a nearly identical score. I do think that we will finally see Allar be allowed to take some shots deep downfield. I think halftime will be something like PSU 14-10.
For a final, I have it:
PSU 31
Iowa 13

WE ARE!!!

 

[knickslions]

Psu 69
Iowa 0

 

[Obliviax]

Very fair assessment. My prediction was a nearly identical score. I do think that we will finally see Allar be allowed to take some shots deep downfield. I think halftime will be something like PSU 14-10.
For a final, I have it:
PSU 31
Iowa 13

WE ARE!!!

I think our O will struggle with Iowa's defense, based on what we saw vs ILL. And if it rains, worse. However, I don't think any iowa fan is confident in their O versus our D. Their game plan coming in will be to not let their offense lose the game (no turnovers, let alone pic sixes).

 

[bdgan]

Home, white out, bad weather, celebrities, it has it all.

Iowa Background

• rain favors iowa to be a low scoring affair with turnovers
• Iowa out their two RBs and TE although that ones playing are good and experienced
• Iowa has played nobody and has not faced anywhere near the talent PSU has
  • Beat Utah State 24-14 (lost to Air Force in a blowout)
  • Beat Iowa State 20-13 (Iowa state just lost to Ohio U)
  • Beat Western Michigan 41-10 (lost to Syracuse 48-7)

Game

• Iowa will run a basic offense to keep it close and hope to get a break
• Rain helps
• Iowa hasn't faced a defense in the same continent as PSUs
• Having said that, they always play us tough and Flash Ferentz is a very good coach
• PSU's Offense is very explosive but really hasn't had consistent chunk plays
• While PSU has played a much more difficult schedule so far (WVU and ILL), Iowa's defense is the best we'll have seen so far
• PSU hasn't had a turnover including zero INTs from a first-year, true sophomore second-year player
• PSU should be at close to full strength with the exception of the kids out for the season

Prediction

• Iowa follows the ILL script thinking that if they can keep from turning it over (ILL had 4) and can get a turnover, they have a shot
• Iowa will play the same defense, two deep/everyone else crowding the line. Challenge the short passing game and run while keeping S back in case someone gets through the front 9
• PSU plays a balanced defense being more concerned about the QB passing than the run game and makes adjustments as needed
• PSU hasn't run a lot of slants and this could change. Also, look for more TE involvement as we try to attack with a more balanced offense. I look for the intermediate pass game to be open as Iowa looks to stop the run and deep plays.
• PSU will have to be patient and perform better in the red zone than we did against ILL. I look for a better game from Allar as ILL was a much more physical and disciplined defense than anything he's played against this season. He'll be more prepared.
• I look for a slog-it-out, physical, hard-hitting, trench game. Especially if the rain is heavy. Again, PSU will have to be patient on offense while being stout on defense to stop the run and short passing game of Iowa.
• Close at the half, PSU pulls away in the 3rd, just as we did vs ILL and WVU
• If PSU limits turnovers, I just don't see how Iowa's offense can sustain and that their defense will wear out
• PSU 31 and Iowa 10.

Not sold on our OL and we're due for a turnover. Rain won't help.

PSU 20
IA 13

If PSU can get it's passing game going it will open up the run. In that case PSU could win by 20.

 

[Psubiomed]

Penn State 24
Iowa 6

 

[PennSt8er]

Good guys hang a lot on the hapless bird eyeballs. something like a woodshed beatdown. I'll go with 63-17.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I don't understand the talk of the rain. I've checked Weather Underground and they said 0.19 inches of rain during the day and none at night. Accuweather says 0.28 during the day and 0.38 in the evening. The worst forecast is from Weather Channel which says 0.25 during the day and 1/2 inch in the evening.

Those don't seem that bad--but then again, I'm typing this from sunny Pasadena.

 

[RickinDayton]

Home, white out, bad weather, celebrities, it has it all.

Iowa Background

• rain favors iowa to be a low scoring affair with turnovers
• Iowa out their two RBs and TE although that ones playing are good and experienced
• Iowa has played nobody and has not faced anywhere near the talent PSU has
  • Beat Utah State 24-14 (lost to Air Force in a blowout)
  • Beat Iowa State 20-13 (Iowa state just lost to Ohio U)
  • Beat Western Michigan 41-10 (lost to Syracuse 48-7)

Game

• Iowa will run a basic offense to keep it close and hope to get a break
• Rain helps
• Iowa hasn't faced a defense in the same continent as PSUs
• Having said that, they always play us tough and Flash Ferentz is a very good coach
• PSU's Offense is very explosive but really hasn't had consistent chunk plays
• While PSU has played a much more difficult schedule so far (WVU and ILL), Iowa's defense is the best we'll have seen so far
• PSU hasn't had a turnover including zero INTs from a first-year, true sophomore second-year player
• PSU should be at close to full strength with the exception of the kids out for the season

Prediction

• Iowa follows the ILL script thinking that if they can keep from turning it over (ILL had 4) and can get a turnover, they have a shot
• Iowa will play the same defense, two deep/everyone else crowding the line. Challenge the short passing game and run while keeping S back in case someone gets through the front 9
• PSU plays a balanced defense being more concerned about the QB passing than the run game and makes adjustments as needed
• PSU hasn't run a lot of slants and this could change. Also, look for more TE involvement as we try to attack with a more balanced offense. I look for the intermediate pass game to be open as Iowa looks to stop the run and deep plays.
• PSU will have to be patient and perform better in the red zone than we did against ILL. I look for a better game from Allar as ILL was a much more physical and disciplined defense than anything he's played against this season. He'll be more prepared.
• I look for a slog-it-out, physical, hard-hitting, trench game. Especially if the rain is heavy. Again, PSU will have to be patient on offense while being stout on defense to stop the run and short passing game of Iowa.
• Close at the half, PSU pulls away in the 3rd, just as we did vs ILL and WVU
• If PSU limits turnovers, I just don't see how Iowa's offense can sustain and that their defense will wear out
• PSU 31 and Iowa 10.

Very good breakdown.. My only disagreement would be with the final score, especially if there is heavy rain. I don't see PSU eclipsing 30 points. Perhaps 21-24 points?

 

[Jerry]

I make it Penn State 24 Iowa 13.

Defense dominates on a wet night. Hawkeyes score a meaningless TD late.

Very little chance that Iowa wins this game...regardless of the weather.

 

[Obliviax]

Very good breakdown.. My only disagreement would be with the final score, especially if there is heavy rain. I don't see PSU eclipsing 30 points. Perhaps 21-24 points?

Good point...a bit of a guess, really. So far, looks like Drizzel is going to sustain the entire game but there won't be a downpour. In that case, it is possible that our WRs hit some big ones as a slippery field may make it difficult to rush and cover.

 

[RickinDayton]

Good point...a bit of a guess, really. So far, looks like Drizzel is going to sustain the entire game but there won't be a downpour. In that case, it is possible that our WRs hit some big ones as a slippery field may make it difficult to rush and cover.

Sure do hope it is no more than that type of rain.

 

[LandoComando]

Penn State 24
Iowa 6

This...both offenses will struggle but Penn State's defense is suffocating and we win the turnover battle. Might be slightly closer than this like 17-6 but it will be a comfortable win.

 

[olelion]

I just am not as confident here. I think this is going to be a close one with Iowa having a chance with their final possession

 

[fastlax16]

Going to predict .5 inches of rain

 

[royboy]

David Jones of pennlive No surprise considering the source.

THE PICK: Though Penn State is a 2-TD betting-line favorite with everyone anticipating a Whiteout ambush of the Hawkeyes, I’m going to pick a major upset. I’ll bank that Parker cooks up a scheme that fools Allar sufficiently to mine multiple turnovers, something the Lions have been fortunate to avoid completely so far. And that Iowa’s improving running game shortens the game just enough to take the pressure off so-far underwhelming Hawkeye QB Cade McNamara. … Iowa 23, Penn State 17.

 

[fastlax16]

David Jones of pennlive No surprise considering the source.

THE PICK: Though Penn State is a 2-TD betting-line favorite with everyone anticipating a Whiteout ambush of the Hawkeyes, I’m going to pick a major upset. I’ll bank that Parker cooks up a scheme that fools Allar sufficiently to mine multiple turnovers, something the Lions have been fortunate to avoid completely so far. And that Iowa’s improving running game shortens the game just enough to take the pressure off so-far underwhelming Hawkeye QB Cade McNamara. … Iowa 23, Penn State 17.

Dave doesn't think much of the two backs missing this week I guess.

 

[royboy]

Dave doesn't think much....

generally

 

[LandoComando]

David Jones of pennlive No surprise considering the source.

THE PICK: Though Penn State is a 2-TD betting-line favorite with everyone anticipating a Whiteout ambush of the Hawkeyes, I’m going to pick a major upset. I’ll bank that Parker cooks up a scheme that fools Allar sufficiently to mine multiple turnovers, something the Lions have been fortunate to avoid completely so far. And that Iowa’s improving running game shortens the game just enough to take the pressure off so-far underwhelming Hawkeye QB Cade McNamara. … Iowa 23, Penn State 17.

He does this stuff just so people react. The only real concern for this game IMO is if Allar does turn the ball over. I just don't think it will happen.

 

[knickslions]

He does this stuff just so people react. The only real concern for this game IMO is if Allar does turn the ball over. I just don't think it will happen.

Ya Penn state is better at every position in this game.

 

[LMTLION]

I don't understand the talk of the rain. I've checked Weather Underground and they said 0.19 inches of rain during the day and none at night. Accuweather says 0.28 during the day and 0.38 in the evening. The worst forecast is from Weather Channel which says 0.25 during the day and 1/2 inch in the evening.

Those don't seem that bad--but then again, I'm typing this from sunny Pasadena.

Tough to say. The forecast looks slightly better than before, thankfully. But if you look at the current radar the extent of the rain to our south is pretty far west already with the center of the storm still strengthening in the ocean as it moves northwest toward landfall.

 

[tboyer]

It's a very dangerous game. The Iowa D looks very, very good, no weaknesses, and PSU's offense is still a work in progress. Iowa O will get stymied most of the day but they're probably good for 17 points -- one of those TDs will be a gift from PSU -- fumble or blocked punt.

I bet it comes down to turnovers and special teams. If Allar can go another tough game without a turnover, PSU wins a nailbiter 20-17.

If PSU wins by more than that, it could come down to quarterbacking. McNamara does not have great accuracy and may not have the arm strength to handle wind. Allar can get the ball out fast and beat the Iowa zone.

PSU TEs could have a really big day because the way to beat a 2-deep zone is to attack the deep middle of the field (which was true of Tom Bradley's defenses as well).

 

[tboyer]

Ya Penn state is better at every position in this game.

That's what makes playing Iowa so frustrating. PSU is almost always better on paper but Iowa plays with a kind of physicality that PSU has had trouble with.

On the other hand, PSU under Franklin has handled Iowa pretty well. Their only two wins over Franklin were Covid season and the crazy game where PSU literally didn't have a backup quarterback who could run the offense.