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Early Look at the Pre-Allocation/AQ's By Weight

RoarLions1

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Using only a five-year history for pre-allocations in 2021 has led to some interesting situations affecting Big Ten wrestlers. Numbers shown are Big Ten only.

125
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
13 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
12 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

133
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
6 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
7 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

141
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
6 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

149
7 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
12 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
12 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

157
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
9 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

165
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
9 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
10 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

174
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
10 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
11 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

184
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
10 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
10 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

197
6 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

285
7 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

125 and 149 affected in a bad way, with a 4 or 5 wrestler difference. At-large will make up some of the difference surely, but doubtful the whole difference.

174, 184, and 197 are next, with a 2 or 3 wrestler difference currently. At-large can cover that difference.

133 and 141 appear to benefit with 1 or 2 more spots than there are ranked wrestlers.

It's not over yet, there's one more Coaches Ranking to be released after this weekend, which will change as guys get 4 matches. Still, the current difference at 125 and 149, and to a lesser degree 174, 184 and 197, may affect the chances of a couple of the currently-ranked guys making it to St. Louis.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Using only a five-year history for pre-allocations in 2021 has led to some interesting situations affecting Big Ten wrestlers. Numbers shown are Big Ten only.

125
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
13 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
12 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

133
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
6 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
7 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

141
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
6 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

149
7 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
12 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
12 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

157
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
9 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

165
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
9 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
10 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

174
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
10 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
11 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

184
8 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
10 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
10 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

197
6 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

285
7 - pre-allocation/AQ spots
8 - wrestlers ranked top-25 according to Flo
8 - top-33 in Coaches Ranking

125 and 149 affected in a bad way, with a 4 or 5 wrestler difference. At-large will make up some of the difference surely, but doubtful the whole difference.

174, 184, and 197 are next, with a 2 or 3 wrestler difference currently. At-large can cover that difference.

133 and 141 appear to benefit with 1 or 2 more spots than there are ranked wrestlers.

It's not over yet, there's one more Coaches Ranking to be released after this weekend, which will change as guys get 4 matches. Still, the current difference at 125 and 149, and to a lesser degree 174, 184 and 197, may affect the chances of a couple of the currently-ranked guys making it to St. Louis.
Click to expand...
We will get a new coaches poll on Thursday must've 3 matches to qualify
 
RoarLions1 said:
125 and 149 affected in a bad way, with a 4 or 5 wrestler difference. At-large will make up some of the difference surely, but doubtful the whole difference.

133 and 141 appear to benefit with 1 or 2 more spots than there are ranked wrestlers.
Click to expand...

More reason for Bartlett 141, Lee 149! I kid I kid, I think that’s now impossible anyway with what Bartlett weighed in at on Friday
 
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PSU guys at;

Howard #27 (11th highest Big Ten)
RBY #2 (Highest B1G wrestler)
N. Lee #2 (2nd highest B1G)
Bartlett #26 (11th highest B1G)
Berge #9 (5th highest B1G)
J. Lee # 14 (5th highest B1G), No Marinelli, only with 2 bouts, so move Lee down 1
Starocci #3 (3rd highest B1G)
Brooks #2 (Highest B1G)
Beard #21 (7th highest B1G)
Nevills #16 (7th highest B1G), No Kerkvliet, only 2 bouts
 
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Couple interesting things from the poll:

Ragusin at 125 and Medley at 133. I'm not sure if teams submit names. If so, might be insight on how Michigan plans to go at Big Tens/NCAAS.

Kerk not eligible but Seth listed.

Lipari ASU at 141 although PAC 12 release today says Chlebove wrestling instead.

Ragusin (3-0) and DeAugustino (2-1) ahead of Foley (4-3) and Barnett (4-2). Foley beat Medley, who wrestled instead of Ragusin. Cardani (2-6) is 17 with one good win (Barnett) while Howard (2-1) is 27.

Lewan ahead of Berge.

Graham Rooks (2-2) with best win over Baxter and losses to Parriott (pin) and Thomas is 18 while Bartlett (3-1) with win over Baxter as well is 26.

Mekhi is 2 (no Marinelli due to only 2 bouts) while Wentzel is 6.
 
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For somebody smarter than me. I am curious what the logic is for ranking Seth Nevills if Kerkvliet is truly the starter? I understand that Kerkvliet can't be ranked but what does Penn State gain by putting somebody in the rankings who to my understanding will not be in the lineup for the Big 10 Tournament?
 
regularfan said:
For somebody smarter than me. I am curious what the logic is for ranking Seth Nevills if Kerkvliet is truly the starter? I understand that Kerkvliet can't be ranked but what does Penn State gain by putting somebody in the rankings who to my understanding will not be in the lineup for the Big 10 Tournament?
Click to expand...
PSU put Nevills in the rankings?

It's an easy out for the coaches. PSU has not declared a postseason starter (even though everybody knows who it will be).
 
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Fink said:
Couple interesting things from the poll:

Kerk not eligible but Seth listed.

Lewan ahead of Berge.
Click to expand...
regularfan said:
For somebody smarter than me. I am curious what the logic is for ranking Seth Nevills if Kerkvliet is truly the starter? I understand that Kerkvliet can't be ranked but what does Penn State gain by putting somebody in the rankings who to my understanding will not be in the lineup for the Big 10 Tournament?
Click to expand...
Lewan is not ahead of Berge, they are tied at 9th.

Re Kerk, PSU didn't put him in the rankings. I suspect the Nevills inclusion is the result of wrestling in 5 of the only 6 PSU duals, so he was on the coaches list when handing in their rankings. Assuming Kerk goes, he'll be in the Coaches Ranking published after the conference tourneys.
Btw, the coaches that vote for 285 this year are;
Dennis Papadatos (Hofstra)
Dan Wirnsberger (Bucknell)
Mark Manning (Neb)
Sean Bormet (Mich)
Tom Borrelli (CMU)
Josh Moore (Cleveland St)
Coleman Scott (UNC)
Pat Popolizio (NC State)
John Mark Bentley (App St.)
Ryan LeBlance (the Citadel)
Sam Barber (Air Force)
Greg Williams (Utah Valley)
Jason Borrelli (Stanford)
Zeke Jones (Ariz. St)
... though it's questionable if the coaches listed ACTUALLY provide the ranking.
 
Last edited:
El-Jefe said:
Because (1) most of Bartlett's matches were at a lower weight; (2) he has zero notable wins.
Click to expand...
To add to this...there are 14 coaches that provide rankings at each weight class. To be 26th, there had to be some level of commonality. Using E-J's reasoning, he's about where he belongs, for now. Bartlett has to earn his way, like all wrestlers, and he will over time imo. He can start with the Big Ten Wrestling Championships :).
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Re Kerk, PSU didn't put him in the rankings. I suspect the Nevills inclusion is the result of wrestling in 5 of the only 6 PSU duals, so he was on the coaches list when handing in their rankings. Assuming Kerk goes, he'll be in the Coaches Ranking published after the conference tourneys.
Click to expand...

The way I understand the process (and maybe I am just wrong) is that Penn State coaches or designee of the coaches go in and selected 10 guys who they say are starters. Otherwise how would people know who was going what weight at Michigan for example. I would assume that was probably due by sometime over the weekend to give the rankers time. Maybe they didn't want to "tip-off" anybody that Kerkvliet was available but its not like it made any difference in the Maryland dual and after that obviously everybody would have known.

Not a huge deal either way as if he doesn't qualify at Big 10s (I am really not worried about this happening) I can't say he would deserve an at-large bid because he would have two pins against the worst kids in the Big 10 and then at best a 1-2 or 2-3 result at the conference tournament with probably no quality wins.
 
I don't believe Kerk has enough matches to be eligible for a coaches ranking. That's why Marinelli isn't ranked at 165 either. Coaches probably put Nevills in this time because he's eligible so might as well.

As for Bartlett, he's 3-1 at the weight and the combined records of the guys he's beaten is 5-13. The only reason he's there at all is because of his reputation and the eye test. Similar situation for Ridge Lovett, who's right next to him.
 
regularfan said:
The way I understand the process (and maybe I am just wrong) is that Penn State coaches or designee of the coaches go in and selected 10 guys who they say are starters. Otherwise how would people know who was going what weight at Michigan for example. I would assume that was probably due by sometime over the weekend to give the rankers time. Maybe they didn't want to "tip-off" anybody that Kerkvliet was available but its not like it made any difference in the Maryland dual and after that obviously everybody would have known.

Not a huge deal either way as if he doesn't qualify at Big 10s (I am really not worried about this happening) I can't say he would deserve an at-large bid because he would have two pins against the worst kids in the Big 10 and then at best a 1-2 or 2-3 result at the conference tournament with probably no quality wins.
Click to expand...
Yes coaches go in and select the guy they want ranked at each weight
 
Fink said:
Couple interesting things from the poll:

Ragusin at 125 and Medley at 133. I'm not sure if teams submit names. If so, might be insight on how Michigan plans to go at Big Tens/NCAAS.

Kerk not eligible but Seth listed.

Lipari ASU at 141 although PAC 12 release today says Chlebove wrestling instead.

Ragusin (3-0) and DeAugustino (2-1) ahead of Foley (4-3) and Barnett (4-2). Foley beat Medley, who wrestled instead of Ragusin. Cardani (2-6) is 17 with one good win (Barnett) while Howard (2-1) is 27.

Lewan ahead of Berge.

Graham Rooks (2-2) with best win over Baxter and losses to Parriott (pin) and Thomas is 18 while Bartlett (3-1) with win over Baxter as well is 26.

Mekhi is 2 (no Marinelli due to only 2 bouts) while Wentzel is 6.
Click to expand...

Cardani was a NQ last year and this year also beat Hudkins who had a win over #2 last year. The 6 guys he lost to are all in the top 13. Howard hasn’t earned being ranked over him yet.

Rooks was also a NQ last year and Bartlett hasn’t beaten anyone of note yet, so he hasn’t earned being ranked over him yet either.

Even if we’re calling Wentzel over Lewis a real loss, Wentzel also lost to Bullard so I think Lewis staying ahead of Wentzel makes sense. I do think Wittlake should be ahead of Lewis though
 
Given the # of AQ's at the weight-class, I'm most concerned with RH making NCAAs based on his match with MH (who is decent, but not awesome imho).
 
CJFisJoePaII said:
Given the # of AQ's at the weight-class, I'm most concerned with RH making NCAAs based on his match with MH (who is decent, but not awesome imho).
Click to expand...
Heinselman isn't awesome, but he's taken a pretty good step up since last season. His main problem in the past was lack of size and strength, and that has improved quite a bit. This year he's 7-1, with wins over #13 Barnett (by MD) and #8 Foley, and a loss 1-0 to #11 Schroder. Howard getting beat by Heinselman, while not the outcome we were hoping for, is by no means a really bad loss.
 
BruceK-PSU83 said:
Heinselman isn't awesome, but he's taken a pretty good step up since last season. His main problem in the past was lack of size and strength, and that has improved quite a bit. This year he's 7-1, with wins over #13 Barnett (by MD) and #8 Foley, and a loss 1-0 to #11 Schroder. Howard getting beat by Heinselman, while not the outcome we were hoping for, is by no means a really bad loss.
Click to expand...

Not concerned with the loss, but more so, the way he lost. He was dominated in the scrambles and frankly it wasn't a close match imho.
 
CJFisJoePaII said:
Not concerned with the loss, but more so, the way he lost. He was dominated in the scrambles and frankly it wasn't a close match imho.
Click to expand...

Respectfully disagree. It was 0-0 after the first, and Howard almost got the throw. Then he made a bad decision to abandon the whizzer to dive for a leg and gave up 2. Heinselman got an escape and then won 1 scramble to get another takedown. I don’t think that’s dominating the scrambles. IMO, the match was closer than the 5-2 score. The good thing, we may get the rematch shortly and see what adjustments get made, and how much better Howard got from his first college match.
 
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Junglekitty said:
Respectfully disagree. It was 0-0 after the first, and Howard almost got the throw. Then he made a bad decision to abandon the whizzer to dive for a leg and gave up 2. Heinselman got an escape and then won 1 scramble to get another takedown. I don’t think that’s dominating the scrambles. IMO, the match was closer than the 5-2 score. The good thing, we may get the rematch shortly and see what adjustments get made, and how much better Howard got from his first college match.
Click to expand...

Heinselman is also clearly WAY better this year. I think people are still judging him on his first 2 years results. Sophomore to Junior year is often when a lot of wrestlers make a BIG jump in college.

First things first, he's a full sized 125 pounder. Size was always his achilles heel, it wasn't his skillset, he made 2 Cadet World Teams for a reason. He was clearly rushed into the lineup and struggled against much bigger wrestlers but still managed to qualify for Nationals both years. He used the COVID lockdown to gain muscle and it's made a big difference.

He could very well be the 2nd best 125 in the Big Ten, he's beaten Foley already, majored Barnett, almost majored Cardani (9-2) and lost 1-0 to Schroeder (who most have as #2)
 
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The pre allocations this year are a joke. The EIWA getting around the same amount as last year, despite missing this best team abd possible their second best team, is unbelievable. Seven teams in their conference aren’t wrestling. It makes no sense. The ncaa has plenty of time to fix this but they won’t. This will be the most water downed tournament ever.
 
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Somehow I missed it...is F&M not wrestling at EIWA's this year?

Regarding the Willie tweet above, posted by E-J, here's a bit of data...
First column is the conference, second the number of teams, far right is the percent of wrestlers in that conference that will go to NCAA's.

ACC
6​
55.00%​
Big 12
12​
37.50%​
Big Ten
14​
54.29%​
EIWA
10​
45.00%​
MAC
14​
25.00%​
Pac-12
6​
31.67%​
Southern
8​
16.25%​
 
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Chickenman Testa said:
The first 2 rounds of NCAAs are going to be a veritable EIWA Turkey shoot
Click to expand...
Midwest mafia all but assured the hawks of a title with the eiwa Turkey shoot.

They may set a new bonus points and team record.

First 2 rounds will be a blood bath.

Then there will be wild upsets in other parts of the bracket

If they can keep Spencer away from a positive covid test it's over

Good on them. I've always wanted my little brother to have some success here and there.
 
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Chickenman Testa said:
The first 2 rounds of NCAAs are going to be a veritable EIWA Turkey shoot
Click to expand...

Ec9T.gif
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Somehow I missed it...is F&M not wrestling at EIWA's this year?

Regarding the Willie tweet above, posted by E-J, here's a bit of data...
First column is the conference, second the number of teams, far right is the percent of wrestlers in that conference that will go to NCAA's.

ACC
6​
55.00%​
Big 12
12​
37.50%​
Big Ten
14​
54.29%​
EIWA
10​
45.00%​
MAC
14​
25.00%​
Pac-12
6​
31.67%​
Southern
8​
16.25%​
Click to expand...
Roar,

My beloved alma mater (F&M) opted out this year :confused:
 
Bulsak (top seed) lost in the semis of the MAC tournament and it wasn't close, 12-5. The MAC only gets 2 AQ's at 197, so he HAS to wrestle back for 3rd or he's out at Nationals, I would think.
 
dunkej01 said:
Midwest mafia all but assured the hawks of a title with the eiwa Turkey shoot.

They may set a new bonus points and team record.

First 2 rounds will be a blood bath.

Then there will be wild upsets in other parts of the bracket

If they can keep Spencer away from a positive covid test it's over

Good on them. I've always wanted my little brother to have some success here and there.
Click to expand...
Since no Ivy league and others not participating could you put an "*" (asterisk) next to the point total and really piss HR off. Asking for a friend ;)
 
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