BWI Wise Guys handicapping thread.....

[Grant Green]

FAU should cover tomorrow night -7.5 against Marshall. Kiffin is auditioning for something, and it isn't at FAU. Also Navy should beat up on Temple tonight.

Hmm. I think I'll be against you on both. Marshall and FAU both had misleading finals last week. Marshall outgained FIU by 100 yards, but turned it over 3 times.WKU was beating FAU in the 4th Q and collapsed. WKU had a TO margin of -3. I think FAU is getting too much love and Marshall will be ready to play.
Not as strong on Temple, but their defense was able to handle the Army option, so they should be prepared for this one.

 

[Grant Green]

What do people think about OSU at Iowa (please, no bias)? On one hand, I watched Iowa's offense vs PSU and they were boring, vanilla, and largely unproductive. No imagination from Ferentz Jr. OSU can move the ball like PSU did, and if they can produce points in the red zone (like PSU didn't), this should be an easy cover.
On the other hand, Iowa has that home field, giant killer mojo going for them. Ferentz has only lost 3 games by more than 17 at home in 82 total that he has coached. Can Iowa cover this, or are they going to get steamrolled?

 

[CDLionFL]

I’m staying far away from that game cuz I can see both sides as you mentioned. OSU should blow the doors off them, especially with Iowa’s offense making our 2004 offense look potent. Plus, the Bucks won’t make the same redzone mistakes we made.

But...it’s in Iowa City and though it’s not at nite, there could still be some mojo. OSU could be in a donut state - big win last week, big matchup next week and may have enough a letdown to cover 18. However, there’s nothing ON the field that makes me think this will be close.

 

[psugisher]

I like Iowa to cover. They might look terrible on offense at times but they'll run the ball and shorten the game as much as possible plus play bend but don't break defense. Ohio State is coming off a huge emotional game. They'll be dealing with some of the same issues as us playing at Michigan State. I think it'll be a one to two score game and Ohio State should win but they'll be happy to just get out of there with a win.

 

[Grant Green]

I’m staying far away from that game cuz I can see both sides as you mentioned. OSU should blow the doors off them, especially with Iowa’s offense making our 2004 offense look potent. Plus, the Bucks won’t make the same redzone mistakes we made.

But...it’s in Iowa City and though it’s not at nite, there could still be some mojo. OSU could be in a donut state - big win last week, big matchup next week and may have enough a letdown to cover 18. However, there’s nothing ON the field that makes me think this will be close.

Maybe I'll watch and get a 2nd half bet in.

 

[MtNittany]

Hmm. I think I'll be against you on both. Marshall and FAU both had misleading finals last week. Marshall outgained FIU by 100 yards, but turned it over 3 times.WKU was beating FAU in the 4th Q and collapsed. WKU had a TO margin of -3. I think FAU is getting too much love and Marshall will be ready to play.
Not as strong on Temple, but their defense was able to handle the Army option, so they should be prepared for this one.

I didn't think Navy's defense was that bad. They are really, really bad. Stand by my FAU pick tonight though.

 

[Grant Green]

Ok, finally found a game that could have a weather impact. Colorado St at Wyoming. Supposed to have wind around 15-17mph with gusts up to 32mph. Rain showers possible. Wyoming games have a penchant for the under in general. Under 50.5.

May be some light rain and wind for ORSt at Cal, but not making this a play yet.

 

[CDLionFL]

A couple of interesting numbers that have popped up on my site, which I would imagine reflects other places:

-Va Tech was a consistent 2-2 1/2 favorite but the line has swung to Miami -1
-FSU is now -7 on Syracuse. FSU is 0-7 ATS this year (source - Las Vegas Review-Journal...must have had FSU -7 1/2 at Duke).

 

[MtNittany]

Kid for Find Another University is a good RB.

 

[MtNittany]

Betting Twitter is lighting Kiffin up like a Christmas Tree over that stupid safety.

 

[jrs1024]

Picks of the week. Lines have since moved a bit.

Va tech -2.5 over Miami. Miami has not been tested. Va tech is killing teams.

Georgia state -4 over Georgia southern. Southern is maybe the worst team in FBS this year. State is at least has a winning record.

Penn state -8.5 over MSU. I hate taking our guys, but this one is too easy. MSU can't score. Penn state scores a lot. Redemption game for last week.

Michigan -15 over Minnesota. Michigan at home with a new QB who looked serviceable. Their demise has been vastly overstated. They return to being ranked after this week after a convincing win.

Notre dame -14 over wake. Notre dame has just been pounding the rock these past few weeks. A decent defense from wake isn't enough to handle the line of scrimmage in this one.

 

[Grant Green]

Betting Twitter is lighting Kiffin up like a Christmas Tree over that stupid safety.

My friend and I watched in Vegas. He had fau -6.5 and I had Marshall 7.5. We thought we both had won. Ouch for him.

 

[Grant Green]

Vegas report. really deflating seeing osu get crushed and our boys go down (yeah, I bet on psu) but I was lifted by a huge 13-7 day in the book! my best win in Vegas ever. Hope people got in on that Wyoming under. Play of the day.
I'm sure I'll now get crushed on these nfl picks
Giants+5.5
Bucs +7
Atl over 42
TENN -3

 

[CDLionFL]

Rough week for this kid. The handicappers knew their crap in a number of games I picked:

-Iowa St loses by half point
-NC St wins by half point
-Fla/Miz under wins by half point
-Georgia St push
-Raiders push (really with that prevent D?)
-Fresno would have pushed had they let the kicker try the FG late

Not sure what my total record was but it wasn’t pretty. And naturally, a number of games I had thought about came in on the plus side.

 

[Grant Green]

Your weekly weather forecast. With the CSU at Wyo game hitting the under, the weather under plays are now 14-4-1 this season. Not a lot going on this weekend, but I did find 3 games with a moderate weather impact - Uconn at UCF, ND at Miami, ODU at FIU. Forecast calls for chance of light to moderate showers and wind 10-15mph for these games and it's worth taking a shot at the under. It also may give ND an advantage over Miami since they can run the ball very well and Miami likes to pass a bit more (and RB Walton was lost for the season). PS. ODU scored a total of 6 points last week and won 6-0.

It will be in the 20's with moderate wind tonight for Ball St at NIll. I won't make it an official "weather play", but when combined with the fact that both teams like to run the ball, NIll is playing a freshman QB (multiple QBs been injured this season,but Graham is ?), and Ball St has been without their QB and RB for weeks, the under may be a consideration here.

Also, I know that UNC has a bunch of injuries and sucked this year, but Pitt giving 9 points in a conf game? UNC worth a look.

 

[CDLionFL]

This week's 'likes' (as I kick myself for not hopping on the NC +9 bandwagon). There are a *TON* out there that I may throw some green at (So Car -5 over Florida, BC +3 over NC State, for example) but these are the ones I feel best about:

Sparty +17 at OSU -- Do I think Go Green goes in there and wins? No. But we've seen what the Suckeyes have done this year when they play against a team that has any semblance of competence to it -- 2 losses and a monumental comeback. If anything, Sparty will stay in the ballgame.

Iowa St +6 1/2 vs the other OSU -- It took a couple of quarters for ISU to figure out the WVU offense last week and if they could have mounted any sort of offense of their own (seriously, WVU's defense is not great), they'd have won that one in Morgantown. Now they know what the offense looks like and here comes virtually the same thing in OSU (albeit with better receivers). Another one that may not be an outright win but should be close.

Iowa +12 at Wisky -- Yet another one I think will be tight but the underdog won't win outright. I'd imagine the under will be in play if the number is anything north of 45-50 (my site doesn't post those until later tonite) given that both teams will probably want to run a lot.

Georgia -2 at Auburn -- This one is more of a 'who you think is gonna win' line. I think Georgia is one of those teams that starts quick and then goes into coast mode. They have the defense to keep Stidham & Co. under wraps.

NW -4 1/2 vs Purdue -- I'm a little surprised this number is as low as it is given that Purdue's road game isn't that great, NW has a pretty decent defense (at least better than Rutgers's, right?), and that NW is due for a blowout win after all of these OT thrillers.

TCU +6 1/2 at Oklahoma -- This ain't OSU's swiss cheese defense that Baker Mayfield is facing this week. Of all the underdogs that I've thrown on the board so far, this is the one that I'd be most confident in the outright win.

 

[Grant Green]

This week's 'likes' (as I kick myself for not hopping on the NC +9 bandwagon). There are a *TON* out there that I may throw some green at (So Car -5 over Florida, BC +3 over NC State, for example) but these are the ones I feel best about:

Sparty +17 at OSU -- Do I think Go Green goes in there and wins? No. But we've seen what the Suckeyes have done this year when they play against a team that has any semblance of competence to it -- 2 losses and a monumental comeback. If anything, Sparty will stay in the ballgame.

Iowa St +6 1/2 vs the other OSU -- It took a couple of quarters for ISU to figure out the WVU offense last week and if they could have mounted any sort of offense of their own (seriously, WVU's defense is not great), they'd have won that one in Morgantown. Now they know what the offense looks like and here comes virtually the same thing in OSU (albeit with better receivers). Another one that may not be an outright win but should be close.

Iowa +12 at Wisky -- Yet another one I think will be tight but the underdog won't win outright. I'd imagine the under will be in play if the number is anything north of 45-50 (my site doesn't post those until later tonite) given that both teams will probably want to run a lot.

Georgia -2 at Auburn -- This one is more of a 'who you think is gonna win' line. I think Georgia is one of those teams that starts quick and then goes into coast mode. They have the defense to keep Stidham & Co. under wraps.

NW -4 1/2 vs Purdue -- I'm a little surprised this number is as low as it is given that Purdue's road game isn't that great, NW has a pretty decent defense (at least better than Rutgers's, right?), and that NW is due for a blowout win after all of these OT thrillers.

TCU +6 1/2 at Oklahoma -- This ain't OSU's swiss cheese defense that Baker Mayfield is facing this week. Of all the underdogs that I've thrown on the board so far, this is the one that I'd be most confident in the outright win.

General agreement except for UGA. The game is insignificant to them and everything to AU. I'm a little conflicted on Sparty and Iowa - want to bet them but will probably pass.

My tip for the day - look for teams on the verge of a bowl eligibility to give extra effort.
One that caught my eye was UAB at UTSA. UAB has been out of football for 2 years and just got to 6 wins. UTSA is at 5 wins and needs one for a bowl bid. One team may be a lot more motivated than the other.

 

[CDLionFL]

Today's wins -- Army, BC, South Carolina
Today's losses -- Georgia, Iowa, Sparty
Today's push -- Iowa State

Those I elected not to take -- NW, under in NW game, Miami, TCU....typical.

 

[Grant Green]

I was over zealous on weather unders last week. I tuned in to the UCF game and it didn't look windy/rainy at all. Part of the risk with weather handicapping is that the forecast is not right. My under games went 1-2 (Miami/ND went under), although I don't think weather was a true factor. Record now 15-6-1.

There is definitely weather going on in the upper midwest and down through the south. I'm trying to get a feel on which games will be most affected -there are a bunch of games with showers to rain/wind of 10-17mph

Let's start with
Ohio St vs Illinois U56.
Rutgers at Indiana U50 (also good IU defense and bad Rutgers offense)
Syracuse at Louisville U73.5. (Dungy ? for Syr and high pt total).

I'm looking at UM, Iowa, and NW games, but those point totals are pretty low and/or have moved down already. Also, all teams that can run the ball fairly well (Wisky at least), so may be a little riskier.

 

[Grant Green]

I was over zealous on weather unders last week. I tuned in to the UCF game and it didn't look windy/rainy at all. Part of the risk with weather handicapping is that the forecast is not right. My under games went 1-2 (Miami/ND went under), although I don't think weather was a true factor. Record now 15-6-1.

There is definitely weather going on in the upper midwest and down through the south. I'm trying to get a feel on which games will be most affected -there are a bunch of games with showers to rain/wind of 10-17mph

Let's start with
Ohio St vs Illinois U56.
Rutgers at Indiana U50 (also good IU defense and bad Rutgers offense)
Syracuse at Louisville U73.5. (Dungy ? for Syr and high pt total).

I'm looking at UM, Iowa, and NW games, but those point totals are pretty low and/or have moved down already. Also, all teams that can run the ball fairly well (Wisky at least), so may be a little riskier.

Even though these totals got it already, maybe worth a small play on
NW vs Minny U40.5 (showers and 20mph wind - actually a cross wind which is better)
TCU at Texas Tech U53.5 (18-25mph wind)
SMU at Memphis U71.5 (up to 25 mph wind, Tstorms)

If anyone wants to really go degenerate, there are 5 FCS vs FBS games (you could also throw Auburn vs UL-Mon in) this weekend. Wouldn't surprise me to see them go 3-2. West Carolina at UNC and Wofford (runs option) at South Carolina seem like the best best. Alabama will probably rest a lot of guys vs Mercer. The Citadel at Clemson for military appreciation day (will Clem really rack up points?). FSU vs Delaware St may be the one to stay away from since Delaware is really bad and FSU may want to take it out on them.

 

[Grant Green]

Too bad if people have not followed my weather reports this season. Last week was the worst (best) weather weekend of the season. The 6 games listed went 4-2 to the under bringing the season under record to 18-6-1. I can't believe I didn't put the Sparty game in there too (I did bet it though). Not a very significant weather week. I'm not very confident in these, so maybe smaller plays...

Western Kentucky at FIU U55 - I'm not positive on this one since it looks like the rain may stop before kick. However, looks like winds 10-20mph and these 2 teams don't score a lot

Iowa at Nebraska U52. Sunny, but wind 15-20mph. Risk is that Iowa can run the ball and nebraska can't defend run. Nebraska will have a tough time passing though.

Ohio State at UM - U50. Sunny but wind 13-17mph wind. O'Korn may have to play for UM

BYU at Hawaii - U48.5, isolated showers, but wind 13-22mph. 2 weak offenses.

Also, considering IU at Purdue (windy), WSU at UW (light rain, light wind), OR St at UO (also light rain, lt wind). The Pacific NW teams will handle the weather better though.

 

[CDLionFL]

I went 2-1 with the weather unders but only used Minnesota-NW from off your list. My others were Navy-ND and Nebraska-PSU (doesn't look like that rain was even there given that final score). Those were my only wins of the weekend. I went 0-5 in the games I bet spreads on. Pretty horrific winning streak across a number of sports that I dealt with last weekend.

I'm going to the Civil War in Eugene on Saturday and really hoping that the rain stays away. Not much incentive to watch two teams I don't care about in a rainstorm, especially when the spread is 25+. More about the atmosphere there I guess.

 

[Grant Green]

I went 2-1 with the weather unders but only used Minnesota-NW from off your list. My others were Navy-ND and Nebraska-PSU (doesn't look like that rain was even there given that final score). Those were my only wins of the weekend. I went 0-5 in the games I bet spreads on. Pretty horrific winning streak across a number of sports that I dealt with last weekend.

I'm going to the Civil War in Eugene on Saturday and really hoping that the rain stays away. Not much incentive to watch two teams I don't care about in a rainstorm, especially when the spread is 25+. More about the atmosphere there I guess.

I ended up taking Navy vs ND too, but stayed away from PSU.

Enjoy the Civil War. I've been wanting to go to that game, but it's a tough ticket to get. If it rains, it will probably be light or a mist. Typical Oregon.

 

[Grant Green]

Reviving this topic one last time for bowl season.
Full disclosure. Pretty sure my final weather unders went 0-4 (I seem to remember a bad beat in the Hawaii game). Still a final tally of 18-10-1 to the under.

Looking at some upcoming B10 bowl games.
I got Iowa at -2.5 and under 45.5. BC lost their starting QB late in the season. They have a good running game, but Iowa has a solid run defense - and red zone defense. Iowa actually ranks pretty high in explosive plays (that's all they had in the PSU game) and BC doesn't defend explosive plays well. Weather will be cold. BC runs a fast offense, but I'm hoping that will be contrasted by Iowa's slow plodding offense.

I bet Purdue early at +3.5, but I don't love it. Purdue rushing defense is actually really good. Arizona has a poor rushing defense and Purdue runs well. If the line drops to 2.5, I may hedge back a bit with Arizona. The point total has dropped for some reason, but I'm thinking O64 may be worth looking at. If you are into live betting, could be worth waiting until after 1st quarter.

I want to look more into Sparty vs WSU. Sparty has a good run defense, but WSU likes to throw lots of short passes. Also, I don't know how motivated Sparty is to be here. I think they had their sights on the Outback bowl. Leaning WSU +1.5.