We really need to start restrictimg Hawk fans from creating threads here...
Time to give Iowa credit where credit is due?
- Thread starter GogglesPaizano
- Start date
At first I thought this was plagiarized from @98lberEating2Lunches . He is a big cheese now on GIA.
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In every great super hero movie there is a great villain ... we are lucky to live in a world with sequels! Every year is different, every year brings new excitement. 8 weeks from today brings the greatest show to all of us fans ... get ready KC, the swarms of bad ears and puffed up lats will be in town.
Every dynasty needs a whipping boy and Iowa is the PSU whipping boy. It will continue as long as Cael is in charge and the NLWC is thriving which has no end in sight. Its all about the room....
I didn’t read the OP’s full post, but yeah - hard to not be impressed with how they’ve done thus far. But we’ll see how March goes.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that all their best guys, absent maybe Ayala, are transfers. Their fans complain about our use of the portal but check their starting lineup as per wrestlestat:
125 Drake came to Iowa from high school
133 Teske is a transfer
141 Woods is a transfer
149 Voinovich is a transfer
157 Franek is a transfer
165 Caliendo is a transfer
174 Kennedy/Arnold came to Iowa from high school
184 Riggins came to Iowa from high school.
197 Glazier came to Iowa from high school. (But they wanted to start a transfer)
285 Hill came to Iowa from high school
Half their starting lineup are transfers and the coaches tried for 60%. But Iowa fans decry Cael “recruiting over” guys.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that all their best guys, absent maybe Ayala, are transfers. Their fans complain about our use of the portal but check their starting lineup as per wrestlestat:
125 Drake came to Iowa from high school
133 Teske is a transfer
141 Woods is a transfer
149 Voinovich is a transfer
157 Franek is a transfer
165 Caliendo is a transfer
174 Kennedy/Arnold came to Iowa from high school
184 Riggins came to Iowa from high school.
197 Glazier came to Iowa from high school. (But they wanted to start a transfer)
285 Hill came to Iowa from high school
Half their starting lineup are transfers and the coaches tried for 60%. But Iowa fans decry Cael “recruiting over” guys.
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Would love it if somebody could link the article by the Iowa columnist that was written when Cael was hired (even if the comment section is long gone).
There's a reason why Iowa is the whipping boy. Don't recall any other programs that reacted to the situation in such a condescending manner.
For everybody that's confused about our "obsession" with Iowa: Please read this article, if it's posted, and you will find your answer.
This year we will whip the 2nd and 3rd teams combined. We can realistically finish with 10 AAs and anywhere from 3 to 6 Champions at the NCAAs. We could set such a fantastic record that it will never be broken (until we break it a few years from now). How's the view from GIA now?
With Davis's emergence, if SVN hadn't gotten hurt, there would have been a nonzero chance that the nationals finals would have been a PSU dual match vs "Field". And that PSU would have won it.This year we will whip the 2nd and 3rd teams combined. We can realistically finish with 10 AAs and anywhere from 3 to 6 Champions at the NCAAs. We could set such a fantastic record that it will never be broken (until we break it a few years from now). How's the view from GIA now?
Yes, Iowa is the same program they were 15 years ago. But not only has Penn State changed, but the sport has changed as well.
And they tried to add Gable, AJ , Nagao, and Truax I believe. Tom is a 100% kind of guy.
And they got none of them. Cael actively recruited Nagao and Truax and not only got both but also Mesenbrink, who wasn't really even on the radar.
Iowa has a tough dual team, but they will be hard-pressed to get a trophy this year.
At nationals, they will need more than a few kids to score double digits. Woods and Franek are the only two to reach that last year, and I see only 2 or 3 others who might get there this year. Missou, Mich, and NCS have more scoring potential, IMO.
At nationals, they will need more than a few kids to score double digits. Woods and Franek are the only two to reach that last year, and I see only 2 or 3 others who might get there this year. Missou, Mich, and NCS have more scoring potential, IMO.
Potentially, yes.
After Woods and Franek, Ayala is the most likely to go deep. Caliendo parlayed his AA finish into 6.5 points last year, and he appears to be the same wrestler against a similar field. Kennedy scored 1.5 points last year, and his best win at 174 this year is over #23 Gaitan ... he got majored by #7 Incontrera.
Like I said, though, they are a much better dual team. Kennedy, for instance, might hand-fight and stall his way to a 6-point decision loss to Star but get outscored by 20 team points at NCAAs.
Maybe they will surprise, we'll see.
Definitely a threat for 2nd if Arujau gets back in time. Getting a trophy without him will be tough.
Iowa has a favorite to win (Woods) plus Ayala who, while there is no one favorite at 125 this year, is definitely in the top tier of a large pool of contenders. Add Franek likely to go pretty deep in the tournament, Caliendo likely to be an AA somewhere even if the class is too deep for him to realistically challenge to win, Glazier who is looking like he may slip into the AA conversation. Let's say one champion (maybe two) and 5 total AAs. Penn State is going to suck so much oxygen out of the room this year that it's going to be hard to find another team that can match that.
Mizzou has one favorite in KOT, but falls off quickly after that. The Elam brothers and Mocco are a good bet to be low AAs, but who else? Surtin maybe, but he's in a tier below Ayala in the 125 craziness.
Michigan? LOL. They barely even have anyone with an outside chance to win (Gomez maybe? I don't see him beating Lovett...). They have like 5 or 6 Caliendo type low AA scorers in DeAug, Ragusin, Gomez, Amine, Griffith, and Davison. They'll be lucky to sniff the top 5.
NC St.? They also have pretty much no title contenders. Hidlay should be a high AA, potentially runner-up, but like Mich, after him, it's a handful of low AA types like Orine, Jack, Arrington, and Scott.
Ok St. may be able to make a push at Iowa. Fix will be there right to the end, as well as Olejnik and Plott. Their depth falls off after those guys who. Ohio St. unfortunately has too many injuries. If they had both Mendez and Sasso competing for a title with Bouzakis and Kharchla in the high AA range, they could have been contenders but missing half of their major scoring is too much to overcome. Lehigh actually could be interesting with two potential champs at the start in Stanich (if he doesn't RS, LOL) and Crookham and two hammers on the back end with Beard and Taylor. They just need a couple guys in between to overachieve to put themselves in the race.
Cornell is probably the closest if they get a couple breaks. They have two legit contenders in Vito and Shapiro plus high AA candidates in Foca, Cardenas, and Ramirez. They probably also need an improbable run from Ungar or Cornella since they will get zeros from multiple positions.
All in all, I still expect Iowa to be a really uninspiring 2nd place finisher this year.
Ayala is going to AA and in the wide-open 125 lb weight class, is a potential finalist
Woods has already been a finalist.
Franek was 4th last year; Caliendo was 7th. I expect better results this year from each.
That looks like 60ish points from those four to me, before bonus. I’ll give them 10 bonus points. Up to 70 now.
R12ish from Teske, Voinovich and Glazier with a few bonus points adds 10ish points. Now we’re at 80 and prob getting a team trophy.
Pull Arnold’s shirt and you’re definitely getting a team trophy and in mix, if not the favorite, for 2nd.
$0.02
Woods has already been a finalist.
Franek was 4th last year; Caliendo was 7th. I expect better results this year from each.
That looks like 60ish points from those four to me, before bonus. I’ll give them 10 bonus points. Up to 70 now.
R12ish from Teske, Voinovich and Glazier with a few bonus points adds 10ish points. Now we’re at 80 and prob getting a team trophy.
Pull Arnold’s shirt and you’re definitely getting a team trophy and in mix, if not the favorite, for 2nd.
$0.02
Arnold replacing PK would have them firmly entrenched in 2nd. Teske R12? LMAO. Teske should be happy if he's even still the starter in the postseason.
There's no dual with tOSU (who are fielding a good team despite the loss of Sasso and being bit by the injury bug), but I'd think that that might have been a good match.
DeAug, Gomez, Lewan, Griffith, and Davison have all scored 10 or more points in the past. They might be suffering from the old man's disease this year, but at least they've done it. Only 2 Hawks have done it.
Returning NCAA points:
1. PSU 127.5 (does not include Van Ness)
2. Cornell 62.0
3. Missouri 61.0
4. Michigan 58.0
5. NC State 48.0
T6. Nebraska, VT 47.0
8. Iowa 42.5
These include all incoming transfers, except Cannon since he's been replaced by Ragusin. Ayala's 2022 nationals included for Iowa. Freshmen obviously not included.
Iowa will probably break into the top 4 with Ayala + Glazier a lock to improve upon their combined 0.5 returning points. But they are very unlikely to catch Cornell, especially with Shapiro added to the lineup.
Going back to the OP - it’s hard to give credit to TnT for limiting the damage to the chaos THEY CREATED. Its like patting the arsonist on the back for keeping his fire from burning down the entire house.
TnT leadership and decisions have led to their mess.
TnT leadership and decisions have led to their mess.
Yes.
Plus whatever improvement from our returnees -- for example, Kerk +4 seems likely.
That was not the intent here. Absolutely much of the pain this past year was indeed self inflicteded and avoidable. My observation was largely, despite TnTs limitations and the nightmare that has been this past 10 months for the program, they have actually consistently delivered solid performances from a team and individuals that would seem vulnerable.
How we get to 170:
Likely:
- Returning 127.5
- Psycho 18.5 (3rd + bonus)
- Davis + Kasak 12.0 (5th + R12, no bonus)
- Kerk +4 (2nd --> 1st)
Subtotal = 162.0
Gave Psycho 3rd because he'll very likely get O'Toole or Carr in the semis; last year's highest-scoring 3rd was 18.5 pts.
We'd still need to find 8 more pts out of:
- Levi 2 --> 1?
- Beau 3 --> 2 or 1?
- Truax 4 --> ??
- Nagao 5 --> ??
- More bonus?
Plus no upsets and no more injuries.
Feasible.
We want to beat 170, so we need to find at least 9 pts.
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