NCAA Brackets and discussion

[El-Jefe]

Aaron's path:
- R1: pigtail winner of 32 Crawford (F&M) vs. Bates (NW)
- R2: 16 Luke Stout (Princeton) or 17 Novak (Wyoming)
- Qtrs: 8 Buchanan (Oklahoma) or 9 Little (Little Rock)
- Semis: 4 Beard or 5 Cardenas (Cornell) or 12 Elam (Missouri)

It's unlikely, but there's scenario where Aaron gets PA opponents in every round. In his half are Crawford (Strath Haven), both Stouts (Mt. Lebanon), Urbas (State High), and Beard. Hidlay got the 2.

 

[pish69]

Carter's path:
- R1: 24 Sparks (Goofers)
- R2: 8 Kemp (Cal Poly)
- Qtrs: 1 Lewis
- Semis: 4 Griffith or 5 Conigliaro or 12 Kennedy

Laughable that Welsh and Wolak got the 6 and 7 over Carter. NCAA misses an easy opportunity for a champ vs. 3x champ final on national TV.

Did they put all the good guys on left side? The bottom side is weak as hell

 

[johnstownsteel]

Add Andonian as a semi possibility …

Weird as I may sound saying this but Saldate worries me more than anyone else on Levi's side.

 

[johnstownsteel]

if i’m not mistaken the top 2 seeds at 125 are true freshman who weren’t even ranked in the top 25 of the class lol

And one was beaten by a hs kid this season. Lol

 

[McScoreley]

if i’m not mistaken the top 2 seeds at 125 are true freshman who weren’t even ranked in the top 25 of the class lol

This is correct. True freshman ranked 46 and 75 per Willie's board. Usually there's a better chance kids ranked at those weights never AA let alone be Top 2 seeds.

 

[jmadden1998]

sarcasm? could have made the finals on the other side.

Still not a bad path. Beat Conigliaro and we’ll see how healthy Griffith is.

 

[Psubiomed]

Michigan took a major screwing up and down the draws. 😂

 

[johnstownsteel]

Did they put all the good guys on left side? The bottom side is weak as hell

I just might pick Rocco to make the finals.

 

[82bordeaux]

It's almost as if the NCAA wants Keegan and Mitch in the finals. Lol

They're gonna get it.

 

[El-Jefe]

Kerk's path:
- R1: pigtail winner of 32 Willham (Indiana) vs. Greer (Ohio)
- R2: 16 Day (Binghamton) or 17 Griess (Navy)
- Qtrs: 8 Trephan (NC State) or 9 Feldman
- Semis: 4 Schultz or 5 Taylor (Lehigh)

I wouldn't rule out Pitzer (21) reaching the semis if his shoulder is completely healed.

Snacks got the 30 seed and opens with Hendrickson. Oof.

Kerk got a far easier draw than Bastida, who will likely get Davison in the quarters, then Hendrickson in the semis.

 

[tikk10]

I'm in the market if anyone sees or hears about an automated bracket spreadsheet. I have a template from prior years but it makes more sense, from a laziness standpoint, to wait for someone else to put it together.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Still not a bad path. Beat Conigliaro and we’ll see how healthy Griffith is.

I was being half sarcastic. I think having Griffith on his half is going to be a good thing for him..

 

[RB-Old]

Levi is the rough draw

I feel like Robb will beat Lewan so that will make it a little easier. Mauller is an unknown because Levi hasn't seen him but he seems to be peaking right now so he should be fine. Ed Scott has five losses, Levi should be fine with him too.

 

[Psubiomed]

Shapiro got Chittum.

 

[dicemen99]

Does Mekhi cut a lot?

Who cares?

Doesn't matter.

 

[jmadden1998]

This was added for 2024 so "subjectivity" could be used, but only when needed;

SUBJECTIVE CRITERIA
The committee may also consider the following subjective measures to supplement established selection and seeding criteria:
● Bad Losses
● Outside the top 30 CR and/or 30 RPI
● Conference Champion
● Performance in last five matches
● Number of Injury default or medical forfeits wins/losses
● Best quality win
● Wrestler availability (injured or medically unable to compete)

I saw this. I believe they only use these to move someone up or down a spot or two but I could be wrong.

 

[Psubiomed]

Kasak has a shot here.

 

[johnstownsteel]

They're gonna get it.

We talk about Hamiti and Carr being on keegans side but there's also Hall who gave Keegan his best match this year if not mistaken. Keegan must be thinking wtf?

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Who cares?

Doesn't matter.

Just challenging the accepted wisdom. Like whether Iron sharpens Iron.

Does he have a big cut

 

[McScoreley]

There isn't a smooth draw for anyone honestly, that's wrestling.

125 was always going to be a crapshoot. Davis luckily is a gamer and will take it one match at a time.

Nagao's season was going to warrant a tough R16 and QF, Aaron's top game will have to be a factor to win either.

Bartlett's style was going to leave us nervous in any situation tbh. Matthews won't be fun but I think he'll find a way to get the TD again similar to last year then I like Cael Happel as QF.

Kasak starts out with a former AA. Parco/Arrington as a QF/SF combo for a true freshman is about as reasonable if you want to believe a run can happen.

Levi go figure has Lewan likely ... hopefully he gets Robb instead then a favorable semis (there aren't easy semis, just ones you feel more confident about)

Even Mitch has a good chance of seeing Cam Amine who despite him dominating in regular season is just different at NCAAs but Mesenbrink is an even better tournament wrestler as scary as that sounds

Carter said it doesn't matter to him so we don't need to over analyze anymore

I like Bernie's draw relatively, have a feeling Salazar won't make the semis either

AB next topic until Trent edge wrestles him with an underhook

Kerk has to stay out of the upper body locks with Schultz (or hopefully Taylor just takes him out) and his biggest challenge obviously will sit in the finals

 

[dicemen99]

I love Beau's draw. Too many people worried about Matthews, he's been terrible this year outside of one match. Does anybody really see Matthews taking Beau down this year? I don't.

Mendez has either Hardy or Lemley in his quarter. Beau gets Happel. Beau picked a good time to lose a match.

 

[RB-Old]

The more I looked, I agree with others in that Davis and Nagao's paths not great. I kinda like Bernie's though

I don't think there is the possibility of a good draw at 125. The upside is that there's nobody on his half that has beaten him. Nagao is going to have a tough time no matter what, he's capable of losing to anybody in the top 15 but I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Crookham either.

 

[82bordeaux]

Aaron's path:

Mekhi's path:

 

[jmadden1998]

I don't think there is the possibility of a good draw at 125. The upside is that there's nobody on his half that has beaten him. Nagao is going to have a tough time no matter what, he's capable of losing to anybody in the top 15 but I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Crookham either.

I would be shocked if he beats Crookham.

 

[RB-Old]

I love Beau's draw. Too many people worried about Matthews, he's been terrible this year outside of one match. Does anybody really see Matthews taking Beau down this year? I don't.

Mendez has either Hardy or Lemley in his quarter. Beau gets Happel. Beau picked a good time to lose a match.

I'm also not sold on Woods making the semis, he's got HEW (had enough wrestling) written all over him. And even if he's not HEW he's got he Iowa sixth-year senior magic going for him.

 

[El-Jefe]

Kerk is #1, Schultz is #4. Hopefully Hutmacher knocks off Schultz, he's the only guy who kind of worries me because he wrestles such a stupid style.

That's hilarious. This might be the biggest squash match in the entire tourney -- and Hutmacher will get body locked and squashed.

Taylor and Pitzer have a far better shot.

 

[District four]

I would be shocked if he beats Crookham.

I'll be shocked if he beats the little rock kid he's a beast.

 

[a_mshaffer]

There isn't a smooth draw for anyone honestly, that's wrestling.

125 was always going to be a crapshoot. Davis luckily is a gamer and will take it one match at a time.

Nagao's season was going to warrant a tough R16 and QF, Aaron's top game will have to be a factor to win either.

Bartlett's style was going to leave us nervous in any situation tbh. Matthews won't be fun but I think he'll find a way to get the TD again similar to last year then I like Cael Happel as QF.

Kasak starts out with a former AA. Parco/Arrington as a QF/SF combo for a true freshman is about as reasonable if you want to believe a run can happen.

Levi go figure has Lewan likely ... hopefully he gets Robb instead then a favorable semis (there aren't easy semis, just ones you feel more confident about)

Even Mitch has a good chance of seeing Cam Amine who despite him dominating in regular season is just different at NCAAs but Mesenbrink is an even better tournament wrestler as scary as that sounds

Carter said it doesn't matter to him so we don't need to over analyze anymore

I like Bernie's draw relatively, have a feeling Salazar won't make the semis either

AB next topic until Trent edge wrestles him with an underhook

Kerk has to stay out of the upper body locks with Schultz (or hopefully Taylor just takes him out) and his biggest challenge obviously will sit in the finals

spat my drink out on your Carter note

 

[RB-Old]

I would be shocked if he beats Crookham.

It was a tight match. Plenty of guys have turned around a 6-4 loss.

 

[El-Jefe]

Add Andonian as a semi possibility …

Only if Scott gets upset first. Their last 3 matches have all been bonus wins for Scott.

 

[rmg78]

Did they put all the good guys on left side? The bottom side is weak as hell

I think on Flo's bracket show Kozak stated that 174 has 3 former national champions on one side and a total of one all american on the other, lol

 

[jmadden1998]

I'm also not sold on Woods making the semis, he's got HEW (had enough wrestling) written all over him. And even if he's not HEW he's got he Iowa sixth-year senior magic going for him.

Who’s gonna beat him before the semis?

 

[El-Jefe]

Seeding is almost entirely based on the matrix. When guys don’t have an RPI (10%) or finish low at their conference tourney (15%) they are going to automatically be seeded lower than they should ie Carter Starocci. There will always be questionable seeds because very little subjectivity is used.

Also because some of the criteria are stupid, and others split the points badly.

Example: being the champ of a 1-allocation conference should not automatically count more than being the B10 or B12 runner-up.

Also: Quality Wins only counts once per opponent. Crookham should've gotten credit for beating Vito both times, not just once.

Etc.

 

[McScoreley]

Let's look at it from the other side though .... Nagao is the bad draw

 

[dicemen99]

Davis' path is NOT bad. Look around at the other top 4 guys.

Ramos has Surtin or Poulin in the second round. Both guys have been ranked top 5 this year. Noto, Sotello, Kaylor and Volk are in the other half of his quarter - OOOF.

Ayala has probably the easiest quarter on paper, but faces Spratley in the quarters. I'd rather Davis face McKee or Figueroa all day than Spratley.

Stanich gets DeAugustino or Smith in 2nd round - double OOF. Then maybe Camacho, but probably Barnett.

So, Davis got the 2nd best round of 16 draw out of the top 4 guys and the best quarter-draw out of anyone. Every draw at that weight looks tough because of the parity.

 

[El-Jefe]

Who’s gonna beat him before the semis?

McNeil is the obvious choice -- 6 seed and a good wrestler. And Woods beat him 8-4 in December.

Woods losing this matchup would mean some injury, cut issue, or he's mentally fried. I wouldn't count on either of those.

 

[Psubiomed]

To b

I'll be shocked if he beats the little rock kid he's a beast.

MUST, repeat MUST get out of the first even in that match.

 

[RB-Old]

Did they put all the good guys on left side? The bottom side is weak as hell

Carter has the chance to knock off two former champs en route to the finals, it's unlikely another 4x champ did that.

 

[jmadden1998]

Also because some of the criteria are stupid, and others split the points badly.

Example: being the champ of a 1-allocation conference should not automatically count more than being the B10 or B12 runner-up.

Also: Quality Wins only counts once per opponent. Crookham should've gotten credit for beating Vito both times, not just once.

Etc.

Also, ACC and PAC 12 only have 6 schools. Finishing 3rd is the same as finishing 7th in the Big 10 but the 3rd place finisher gets 15% of the matrix if compared to the 4th place finisher in the Big 10. Also totally agree on the quality wins. It’s harder to beat a good opponent multiple times. Should get credit in the matrix.

 

[dicemen99]

It was a tight match. Plenty of guys have turned around a 6-4 loss.

It wasn't really that tight.

Aaron might have a chance if Crookham slips and falls on his face to give him a TD, but even then I don't think he rides him well enough to win. Barring that I don't see anyway Aaron takes him down and even gets a chance on top (not that I think he can do anything on top to Crookham anyway).

People need to realize that Crookham is the real deal.