Is it really just recruiting?? Let's take a look...

[voltz99]

I think what I am saying, granted probably very unpopular here, is if you swap those recruits between the two programs you would not see the same results.

Less (probably not none) championships for our recruits, and more (definitely not none) championships for Iowa's.

We will never know. I think Nolf, NIckel, Zain and Taylor would win anywhere. They were all top 10. There are guys that go to PSU and underperform.

Spencer Lee did go to Iowa and won three.

If you had your choice between Cael and all walk ons vs coach of your choice and all top 10 guys who would you take? Cael is the best but it is mostly recruiting.

PSU should have put it together decades earlier. There were years in the 80s where 5 Pa teams would be in the top 10. PSU would be 3rd but ESU, Bloom, Clarion, Edinboro, Lock Haven, Temple, Pitt, and Pitt Johnstown were producing champions.

 

[kingslayer_85]

So

Nope.

It does not support the premise about recruiting. It is mostly recruiting. The PSU guys were top 10.

So what , isn’t recruiting the coaches responsibility. Cael is doing this better than everyone else. Maybe you should be asking why they all want to come to Penn state. How does he get them to perform at a high level year in and year out. When he doesn’t have a top recruit how does he extract the most he can out of the wrestlers. How is a team loaded with top recruits maintain cohesion? Coaching is everything and one guy is doing it better than everyone else

 

[dicemen99]

Nope.

It does not support the premise about recruiting. It is mostly recruiting. The PSU guys were top 10.

It's completely useless having a discussion with someone who doesn't understand the basic tenets of the argument being presented. Either willfully or because of lack of capabilities.

So, which is it - stubborn or just plain stupid?

 

[El-Jefe]

Nope.

It does not support the premise about recruiting. It is mostly recruiting. The PSU guys were top 10.

Eierman shirted and placed 5th while Nick Lee was still in high school.

He then placed 4th and 3rd at NCAAs, and top 3 at the US Open and Senior World Team Trials, while still at Missouri.

And Lee surpassing him was fait accompli because Lee was a top 10 recruit.

Got it.

 

[a_mshaffer]

We will never know. I think Nolf, NIckel, Zain and Taylor would win anywhere. They were all top 10. There are guys that go to PSU and underperform.

Spencer Lee did go to Iowa and won three.

If you had your choice between Cael and all walk ons vs coach of your choice and all top 10 guys who would you take? Cael is the best but it is mostly recruiting.

PSU should have put it together decades earlier. There were years in the 80s where 5 Pa teams would be in the top 10. PSU would be 3rd but ESU, Bloom, Clarion, Edinboro, Lock Haven, Temple, Pitt, and Pitt Johnstown were producing champions.

what you're missing is what all the PSU guys state and that is the mindset is different. Plays a big role when athletes are matched up closely

 

[voltz99]

It's completely useless having a discussion with someone who doesn't understand the basic tenets of the argument being presented. Either willfully or because of lack of capabilities.

So, which is it - stubborn or just plain stupid?

Can you answer my previous question? If you use MULTIPLE sources of rankings and YOUR sources have DIFFERENT rankings then isn't one of those rankings wrong?

 

[El-Jefe]

I actually thought of this but could not remember the URL. If you have that I can use the Internet way back machine and it may be accessible.

It was D1CW.com or .org or some other extension. Been gone for a few years but maybe you can find an archive.

 

[voltz99]

what you're missing is what all the PSU guys state and that is the mindset is different. Plays a big role when athletes are matched up closely

Sounds good but I did not miss that point. You missed the fact that it is mostly top 10 guys with the championships. Diceman gave the stats. PSU top 10 recruits had 21 championships. PSU had 0 titles from wrestlers ranked 21-50. Was their mindset different? Was the coaching different?

 

[nerfstate]

I actually thought of this but could not remember the URL. If you have that I can use the Internet way back machine and it may be accessible.

I'd be pretty surprised if Earl didn't drop by here from time to time. Maybe @smalls103 can poke him.

 

[nerfstate]

Sounds good but I did not miss that point. You missed the fact that it is mostly top 10 guys with the championships. Diceman gave the stats. PSU top 10 recruits had 21 championships. PSU had 0 titles from wrestlers ranked 21-50. Was their mindset different? Was the coaching different?

You're kinda ignoring the lede though:

​

If you want a shot at a NC, if you're a top 10 guy you should pick PSU because your 2x to 3x as likely to do it there ; if you aren't a top 10 guy, you don't have a great chance but you're much more likely to do this a PSU.​

 

[voltz99]

You're kinda ignoring the lede though:

​

If you want a shot at a NC, if you're a top 10 guy you should pick PSU because your 2x to 3x as likely to do it there ; if you aren't a top 10 guy, you don't have a great chance but you're much more likely to do this a PSU.​

I will go with more likely to win at PSU.

Some of the stats are bogus. 2x or 3x? If we used real numbers it would be exact. The OP uses MULTIPLE rankings. His sources had different rankings and he cherry picked the numbers to suit his premise. The original rankings cant all be accurate when they have DIFFERENT rankings.

 

[dicemen99]

Can you answer my previous question? If you use MULTIPLE sources of rankings and YOUR sources have DIFFERENT rankings then isn't one of those rankings wrong?

I've already answered it in my original post.

But again, early on there is only one set available that I could find - Intermat. Later (after 2015) on there are multiple sources but they generally agree with each other with very few exceptions. For example you are not going to find No Jordan ranked #1 at Intermat and #56 somewhere else. These services use each other for reference and to weed out large discrepancies. There are small deviations that ultimately don't amount to a hill of beans if you use a lot of data and understand statistics.

It doesn't matter that Marinelli was ranked #2 by one publication and #3 by another. Or that Carter is #9 in one and #15 in another. If you are consistent with your methodology it will come out the same as long as you are using a lot of data - like I am - and not cherry picking specific examples - like you are.

When you use a lot of data - like 800 or so data sets that we have here - you can have a high degree of confidence in the patterns that result.

Usually people understand this after they finish their elementary statistics class as a freshman.

 

[nerfstate]

I will go with more likely to win at PSU.

Some of the stats are bogus. 2x or 3x? If we used real numbers it would be exact. The OP uses MULTIPLE rankings. His sources had different rankings and he cherry picked the numbers to suit his premise. The original rankings cant all be accurate when they have DIFFERENT rankings.

I don’t think cherry picking is what dice was doing, but I haven’t analyzed his source material. I think he was just trying to get a complete picture. A model can be flawed, but still informative, regardless. If you seem so confident in the flaws you identified, maybe you can make your own?

 

[a_mshaffer]

Sounds good but I did not miss that point. You missed the fact that it is mostly top 10 guys with the championships. Diceman gave the stats. PSU top 10 recruits had 21 championships. PSU had 0 titles from wrestlers ranked 21-50. Was their mindset different? Was the coaching different?

your last 2 sentences are questions. Thought I answered as the mindset is part of the coaching scheme.

 

[Ski]

It was D1CW.com or .org or some other extension. Been gone for a few years but maybe you can find an archive.

I believe it was www.d1collegewrestling.net, but that domain is now available for purchase. Like you said, maybe there is an archive somewhere.

 

[SpikingWhamos]

Sounds good but I did not miss that point. You missed the fact that it is mostly top 10 guys with the championships. Diceman gave the stats. PSU top 10 recruits had 21 championships. PSU had 0 titles from wrestlers ranked 21-50. Was their mindset different? Was the coaching different?

If we concede that Penn State coaches do their jobs better and indeed succeed with great recruits, will you find a better argument to make?

 

[Agoodnap]

It's completely useless having a discussion with someone who doesn't understand the basic tenets of the argument being presented. Either willfully or because of lack of capabilities.

So, which is it - stubborn or just plain stupid?

"I can give you an argument, but I can't give you an understanding." Samuel Adams

 

[Agoodnap]

I actually thought of this but could not remember the URL. If you have that I can use the Internet way back machine and it may be accessible.

I think he writes for Intermat. @smalls103 do you have Earl Smith's contact information?

 

[Sullivan]

So

So what , isn’t recruiting the coaches responsibility. Cael is doing this better than everyone else. Maybe you should be asking why they all want to come to Penn state. How does he get them to perform at a high level year in and year out. When he doesn’t have a top recruit how does he extract the most he can out of the wrestlers. How is a team loaded with top recruits maintain cohesion? Coaching is everything and one guy is doing it better than everyone else

At Iowa, recruiting is Bobby Telford’s responsibility.

 

[dicemen99]

I think he writes for Intermat. @smalls103 do you have Earl Smith's contact information?

I found them. He did "Big Board" rankings from 2010 to 2016. I will incorporate them into my data. I am now compiling all ranking sources and will average the ranking between them.

 

[PAHURDLER]

Oh look, it’s the “Carl sucks at coaching because all he can do well is everything that a coach is supposed to do” argument from Iowa fans again. A tired dance often danced on GIA, now bleeding over to here.

🥱

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Go to archive.org and type in www.d1collegewrestling.net. It has been archiving internet sites since the 90s. It will show you when snapshots of this site were archived and let you pull up the site for a specific date in the past to crawl through looking for recruiting info.

 

[tullfan68]

yes Spencer Lee did win 3 title but leaves him out of the GOAT but I take pride in knowing that a kid from Pa is the greatest wrestler ever for iowa!

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Go to archive.org and type in www.d1collegewrestling.net. It has been archiving internet sites since the 90s. It will show you when snapshots of this site were archived and let you pull up the site for a specific date in the past to crawl through looking for recruiting info.

Nice!

 

[cms432]

I found them. He did "Big Board" rankings from 2010 to 2016. I will incorporate them into my data. I am now compiling all ranking sources and will average the ranking between them.

Dice - First, thanks for your efforts in crunching the data and sharing the results with us. I find this kind of stuff super interesting.

Once you have all the data compiled, I'd love to see how all top 10 recruits that chose Cael and PSU fared against all top 10 recruits that chose another coach/school. In other words, Penn State vs. the field specifically for top 10 recruits. Have to believe the results will be favorable for the good guys, but curious to see the actual data.

 

[The Japanese Whizzer]

I found them. He did "Big Board" rankings from 2010 to 2016. I will incorporate them into my data. I am now compiling all ranking sources and will average the ranking between them.

Good job on this, btw. Most of us get the analysis. Changing rankings will not add national champions to Iowa’s total.

 

[Agoodnap]

Dice - First, thanks for your efforts in crunching the data and sharing the results with us. I find this kind of stuff super interesting.

Once you have all the data compiled, I'd love to see how all top 10 recruits that chose Cael and PSU fared against all top 10 recruits that chose another coach/school. In other words, Penn State vs. the field specifically for top 10 recruits. Have to believe the results will be favorable for the good guys, but curious to see the actual data.

This, plus one more comparison. Our top fifteen or twenty pfp recruits vs all other top fifteen or twenty pfp recruits that compete at the same weights simultaneously.

 

[El-Jefe]

Good job on this, btw. Most of us get the analysis. Changing rankings will not add national champions to Iowa’s total.

Everybody gets the analysis. Most of us admit it.