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Is it really just recruiting?? Let's take a look...

dicemen99

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Nov 15, 2005
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So, with it being a slow and cold Saturday with no PSU football, AND with a lot of renewed bluster appearing on our board without a lot (or any) of fact behind it, I decided to start a little project.

I decided to take a look (by team) of ALL the recruits since 2010, where they were ranked, if they AA'd, # of AAs, if they made an NCAA final or won a championship and total number of finals and championships and put it in a spreadsheet. I'll clean that spreadsheet up in format and post it here shortly, if you want to take a look at it.

A couple of notes about the methodology:
  • The cutoff was 2010 because that was really the year when I could gather the most reliable data. It is not easy gathering recruiting rankings prior to 2015 or so and prior to 2012 or so a lot of them were just weight class rankings although there are some Intermat - really hard to find - that rank all SRs regardless of weight class as far back as 2006 or so, but not all of them. I wanted to do wrestlers since Cael became HC at PSU, but it was too difficult, so I made 2010 the arbitrary cutoff as I was able to find and confirm all of the rankings (at least in one place). This probably hurt PSU a bit as we lost Taylor, Ruth, and Quentin but there's a lot of data so the effect is limited. It also saved me from making ranking decisions about guys like Wright and Grant Gambrall, where I could only find weight-class ranks, but also could find articles that said things like Gambrall is the top-ranked 171 in the nation ahead of Wright and another kid from IL, but what does that mean? Are they 10 and 11? Are they 5 and 25?
  • Because of the above, I expect I made a mistake or two. Maybe Willie can look at it later and correct it. Sometimes there were conflicting rankings from different sources, but they were generally in the same ballpark. From 2010 to about 2015 I relied on Intermat mostly, then FLO, and then Rokfin when Willie got his Big Board back in 2020.
  • Transfers in and out mess with the data, so you can accumulate credit only for AAs, Finals & NCs under your tenure. Any transfer out in the first year and any transfer in at the end of your career is removed. DeSanto and Lugo are counted for Iowa, as will Mesenbrink later, Suriano, Gross - no, Max Dean, and Eirman were not counted. Guys that were removed also include guys like Austin Blythe (football), Wyatt Henson, and Sam Sherlock - removed. Not enough data at their college to make their data relevant.
  • I broke the stats down into 4 categories:
    • Top 10 recruits
    • Recruits ranked 10-20
    • Recruits ranked 20-50
    • Recruits ranked below 50 that AA'd.
In honor of our new guest, I did PSU and Iowa first, see the post below. I would also like to do tOSU and OK State in the future. Maybe Michigan and/or NC State. I hope you enjoy.
 
decided to take a look (by team) of ALL the recruits since 2010, where they were ranked, if they AA'd, # of AAs, if they made an NCAA final or won a championship and total number of finals and championships and put it in a spreadsheet. I'll clean that spreadsheet up in format and post it here shortly, if you want to take a look at it.
Didn't read the rest yet but already ready to read the cleaned up version.
 
PSU vs Iowa

For the 2020 to 2023 recruits stats were only compiled for recruits that were either in the lineup, or their trajectory already set. For example, Howard is included (as a zero), Haines, Bartlett and Van Ness are included even though they still have 10 seasons of eligibility left; Ayala and Kennedy are also included. Guys like Franklin, Riggins, and Mesenbrink - not included.

Top 10 recruits
  • Totals
    • PSU with a total of 21 top-10 recruits accounting for 46 AAs, 30 finals appearances, and 21 national championships. They will have a chance to improve on that number with Kerk, Haines, Bartlett, and Van Ness.
    • Iowa with a total of 10 top-10 recruits accounting for 24 AAs, 8 finals appearances, and 4 national championships. They will have a chance to improve on that number with Ayala and Kennedy.
  • Individually
    • If you were a top-10 recruit that went to PSU, there was an 81% chance you earned AA (17/21), a 62% chance you made a final (13/21), and a 43% chance you won it all (9/24).
    • If you went to Iowa as a top-10 recruit there was a 70% chance you earned AA (7/10), a 50% chance you made a final (5/10), and a 20% you ended up a NC (2/10)
Mind you, those numbers above do NOT include Taylor, Ruth, or Wright from PSU under Cael. Still, a significantly better chance that you develop into a wrestler who could win an NCAA title under Cael, Casey, and Cody than under Tom and Terry. I'll check back on these numbers in 3 years when we have the final totals from Kerk, Haines, Van Ness, Bartlett, Ayala & Kennedy and I will guess that it will be even more significant. PSU with 9 multi-time finalists so far (and likely at least 11), and Iowa with 2.

Recruits 10-20
  • Totals
    • PSU with a pretty small sample size (I included Carter in the top 10s, although he was ranked 15th by FLO and 9th by Willie). PSU with 5 recruits in this category, accounting for 6 AAs, 3 finals appearances, and 2 championships (RBY)
    • Iowa with 11 recruits in this category resulting in 19 AAs, 2 finals, and one championship (Clark)
  • Individuals
    • PSU recruits 11-20 were AAs 60% of the time (3/5), finalists 20% of the time (1/5), and champs 20& of the time (1/5)
    • Iowa recruits 11-20 were AAs 64% of the time (7/11), finalists 9% of the time (1/11), and champs 9% of the time (1/11).
Not a lot to say here. PSU takes a hit with Beard only earning 1 AA for them before transferring but hits on RBY, whereas Iowa has over double the recruits at this weight and hits on only Clark but gets some nice mid-AAs with guys like DeSanto, Telford, and Cassioppi. NOTE: Burak is listed in this category. Strange recruit, committing to Iowa a year after HS after winning Junior Nationals. He was listed by Intermat as their top recruit over Nick Moore (who was ranked #11), but doubtful he was in top 10 so I put him here. Similar results in the area of AAs, but PSU ends up with the best recruit with less than half the total number of tries.

Recruits 21-50
  • PSU again with a small sample size here (SSS) with only four recruits ranked in this area (not including Davis who will be added at the end of this year.) They hit one AA (Shakur Rasheed) out of the four. No finalists or NCs.
  • Iowa has 10 recruits in this category and four of them made AA, with Sorenson (ranked #27) making a final.
A category that Iowa bests PSU in with one finalist to zero and a 40% to 25% edge in AAs.

Unranked (or below 50) recruits
  • PSU has three recruits Cassar (UR), Brown (UR), and Conaway (109) who accounted for six AAs, three finals appearances and two National Championships
  • Iowa has one recruit Brands (93) and a transfer, Lugo (74) that each AA'd once. NOTE: Lugo transferred after a R12 finish, so not sure this belongs in unranked, but, hey, I'm not backing away from my methodology.
Along with the top-10 results, probably the most damning of all the evidence to refute the "Cael can only recruit" argument. Two National Championships from unranked guys in the last ten years and another guy who was a multiple-time AA. Iowa with the coach's son and a R12 transfer that garnered 1 AA apiece and those are the fans that do most of the talking.

I think it's fair to say that if you kept the recruits in the same place and you switched the staffs (gave Brands all the PSU recruits and Cael all the Iowa recruits), Brands & Brands probably win at least four fewer championships than Cael & Company do over the past 13 years - in fact, I'm not sure how you can dispute this given the stats above and the team scores over the years. PSU is not the only school that gets top recruits, but they do significantly more - percentage-wise per recruit - with the top recruits they get. And again, these stats do not include Taylor, Ruth, and Wright - eight national championships and 10 finals appearances all under Cael. Additionally, they have been able to develop multiple national champs from unranked recruits - maybe there has been another coach to do this in the last dozen years (I'm not doing the research now), but he is sure not at Iowa.

Ok, done for today.
 
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I'm confused on this?
Instead of including 2009 (or 2008) to include wrestlers that wrestled their entire or most of their career for Cael at PSU, I cut it off at 2010, since anything before that the rankings were unclear. This eliminated Ruth, Taylor and Wright from the data pool for PSU. I'm not sure if this eliminated anyone - maybe McDonogh - who won a NC from Iowa, but it is clear if we included those years, PSU's numbers would be even better.
 
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A lot of great stuff here. But not sure why you needed to eliminate DT and Ruth as each had their first NCAA tourney in 2011
 
PSU vs Iowa

For the 2020 to 2023 recruits stats were only compiled for recruits that were either in the lineup, or their trajectory already set. For example, Howard is included (as a zero), Haines, Bartlett and Van Ness are included even though they still have 10 seasons of eligibility left; Ayala and Kennedy are also included. Guys like Franklin, Riggins, and Mesenbrink - not included.

Top 10 recruits
  • Totals
    • PSU with a total of 21 top-10 recruits accounting for 46 AAs, 30 finals appearances, and 21 national championships. They will have a chance to improve on that number with Kerk, Haines, Bartlett, and Van Ness.
    • Iowa with a total of 10 top-10 recruits accounting for 24 AAs, 8 finals appearances, and 4 national championships. They will have a chance to improve on that number with Ayala and Kennedy.
  • Individually
    • If you were a top-10 recruit that went to PSU, there was an 81% chance you earned AA (17/21), a 62% chance you made a final (13/21), and a 43% chance you won it all (9/24).
    • If you went to Iowa as a top-10 recruit there was a 70% chance you earned AA (7/10), a 50% chance you made a final (5/10), and a 20% you ended up a NC (2/10)
Mind you, those numbers above do NOT include Taylor, Ruth, or Wright from PSU under Cael. Still, a significantly better chance that you develop into a wrestler who could win an NCAA title under Cael, Casey, and Cody than under Tom and Terry. I'll check back on these numbers in 3 years when we have the final totals from Kerk, Haines, Van Ness, Bartlett, Ayala & Kennedy and I will guess that it will be even more significant. PSU with 9 multi-time finalists so far (and likely at least 11), and Iowa with 2.

Recruits 10-20
  • Totals
    • PSU with a pretty small sample size (I included Carter in the top 10s, although he was ranked 15th by FLO and 9th by Willie). PSU with 5 recruits in this category, accounting for 6 AAs, 3 finals appearances, and 2 championships (RBY)
    • Iowa with 11 recruits in this category resulting in 19 AAs, 2 finals, and one championship (Clark)
  • Individuals
    • PSU recruits 11-20 were AAs 60% of the time (3/5), finalists 20% of the time (1/5), and champs 20& of the time (1/5)
    • Iowa recruits 11-20 were AAs 64% of the time (7/11), finalists 9% of the time (1/11), and champs 9% of the time (1/11).
Not a lot to say here. PSU takes a hit with Beard only earning 1 AA for them before transferring but hits on RBY, whereas Iowa has over double the recruits at this weight and hits on only Clark but gets some nice mid-AAs with guys like DeSanto, Telford, and Cassioppi. NOTE: Burak is listed in this category. Strange recruit, committing to Iowa a year after HS after winning Junior Nationals. He was listed by Intermat as their top recruit over Nick Moore (who was ranked #11), but doubtful he was in top 10 so I put him here. Similar results in the area of AAs, but PSU ends up with the best recruit with less than half the total number of tries.

Recruits 21-50
  • PSU again with a small sample size here (SSS) with only four recruits ranked in this area (not including Davis who will be added at the end of this year.) They hit one AA (Shakur Rasheed) out of the four. No finalists or NCs.
  • Iowa has 10 recruits in this category and four of them made AA, with Sorenson (ranked #27) making a final.
A category that Iowa bests PSU in with one finalist to zero and a 40% to 25% edge in AAs.

Unranked (or below 50) recruits
  • PSU has three recruits Cassar (UR), Brown (UR), and Conaway (109) who accounted for six AAs, three finals appearances and two National Championships
  • Iowa has one recruit Brands (93) and a transfer, Lugo (74) that each AA'd once. NOTE: Lugo transferred after a R12 finish, so not sure this belongs in unranked, but, hey, I'm not backing away from my methodology.
Along with the top-10 results, probably the most damning of all the evidence to refute the "Cael can only recruit" argument. Two National Championships from unranked guys in the last ten years and another guy who was a multiple-time AA. Iowa with the coach's son and a R12 transfer that garnered 1 AA apiece and those are the fans that do most of the talking.

I think it's fair to say that if you kept the recruits in the same place and you switched the staffs (gave Brands all the PSU recruits and Cael all the Iowa recruits), Brands & Brands probably win at least four fewer championships than Cael & Company do over the past 13 years - in fact, I'm not sure how you can dispute this given the stats above and the team scores over the years. PSU is not the only school that gets top recruits, but they do significantly more - percentage-wise per recruit - with the top recruits they get. And again, these stats do not include Taylor, Ruth, and Wright - eight national championships and 10 finals appearances all under Cael. Additionally, they have been able to develop multiple national champs from unranked recruits - maybe there has been another coach to do this in the last dozen years (I'm not doing the research now), but he is sure not at Iowa.

Ok, done for today.

This is good stuff! I know that took some time to compile.
 
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A lot of great stuff here. But not sure why you needed to eliminate DT and Ruth as each had their first NCAA tourney in 2011
If you can give me all of Iowa and PSUs "big board" ranks for 2008 and 2009 I would include them. I was unable to find more than just an article about Taylor being #1 on International and Grajales being #1 on WIN. Nothing about Ruth beyond being a top recruit. Nothing on guys like Wright and Gambrall besides an article about Gambrall being #1 at the weight class.

Mind you, I would need data on ALL the recruits in those classes, not just the best ones - otherwise I'm screwing with the data.

Like I said, maybe Willie can help. I know 2008 would have also added James English as an unranked AA, but maybe Iowa had a guy like that that year as well, so I would need both.
 
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If you can give me all of Iowa and PSUs "big board" ranks for 2008 and 2009 I would include them. I was unable to find more than just an article about Taylor being #1 on International and Grajales being #1 on WIN. Nothing about Ruth beyond being a top recruit. Nothing on guys like Wright and Gambrall besides an article about Gambrall being #1 at the weight class.

Mind you, I would need data on ALL the recruits in those classes, not just the best ones - otherwise I'm screwing with the data.

Like I said, maybe Willie can help. I know 2008 would have also added James English as an unranked AA, but maybe Iowa had a guy like that that year as well, so I would need both.
I read cutoff as when they started, not recruited. Just trying to understand. Love what you did
 
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Okay; my bad. Original post said recruits prior to 2010. I read posts after that that referred to wrestlers starting in 2010. Was just confused as Q started prior to Ed and DT. And of course, Ed and DT would be big additions. Again - great stuff here. I love this kind of analysis.
 
To sum up the Iowa-PSU comparison, it basically says for any recruit:
  • If you're happy just making AA, go where you want.
  • If you want a shot at a NC, if you're a top 10 guy you should pick PSU because your 2x to 3x as likely to do it there ; if you aren't a top 10 guy, you don't have a great chance but you're much more likely to do this a PSU.
  • If you want to be a multi-time NC you better go to PSU no matter where you are ranked because they are unicorns unless you are a top 5 recruit if you don't go to PSU. If you go to PSU and win one, you are very likely to win 2 or more.
  • If you want to be a generational-type guy (top-10 only need apply), you're probably 5x more likely to do this at PSU than Iowa.
 
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So if Brands was the coach of PSU for the last 13 years and had 4 fewer championships, what other D-1 teams win these 4?

Tom Brands is a far better coach than you would ever give him credit. I think Tom would have done quite well with same wrestlers PSU has had for the last 13 years. Really well actually.

Tom needs top 10 P4P talent at Iowa and has struggled to consistently get it. PSU has not struggled at all.
 
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Totally flawed position. OP admits thy were not ranked before 2010 and it is difficult to even find rankings before 2015.

Matt brown was at ISU in 2008. He took a two year mission and transferred to psu. Yea, he was not ranked.

Casaar and conaway were both before 2015. I believe casaar was also injured in hs.

The whole premise goes out the window if you admit some original rankings were wrong

The reality is recruiting is the biggest part of college sports. Coaches know it and that is why they spend millions recruiting!!!
 
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To sum up the Iowa-PSU comparison, it basically says for any recruit:
  • If you're happy just making AA, go where you want.
  • If you want a shot at a NC, if you're a top 10 guy you should pick PSU because your 2x to 3x as likely to do it there ; if you aren't a top 10 guy, you don't have a great chance but you're much more likely to do this a PSU.
  • If you want to be a multi-time NC you better go to PSU no matter where you are ranked because they are unicorns unless you are a top 5 recruit if you don't go to PSU. If you go to PSU and win one, you are very likely to win 2 or more.
  • If you want to be a generational-type guy (top-10 only need apply), you're probably 5x more likely to do this at PSU than Iowa.
As a statistics kinda guy, I’m enjoying your efforts. Your work adds color to our view of dominance. Tx
 
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So if Brands was the coach of PSU for the last 13 years and had 4 fewer championships, what other D-1 teams win these 4?

Tom Brands is a far better coach than you would ever give him credit. I think Tom would have done quite well with same wrestlers PSU has had for the last 13 years. Really well actually.

Tom needs top 10 P4P talent at Iowa and has struggled to consistently get it. PSU has not struggled at all.
yea but if Brands was the coach they wouldn't have gone there! LOL just sayin
 
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K
Totally flawed position. OP admits thy were not ranked before 2010 and it is difficult to even find rankings before 2015.

Matt brown was at ISU in 2008. He took a two year mission and transferred to psu. Yea, he was not ranked.

Casaar and conaway were both before 2015. I believe casaar was also injured in hs.

The whole premise goes out the window if you admit some original rankings were wrong

The reality is recruiting is the biggest part of college sports. Coaches know it and that is why they spend millions recruiting!!!
Admit some of the original rankings were wrong?

Then why point at rankings at all? You can just rank people after they have posted results at the NCAA level. This is specifically to address performance against recruiting rankings. Data over a long period will minimize the impact of "outliers." If you don't accept this, just be happy with your own opinion based on no data.

Rankings before 2015 were difficult but not impossible. Conaway was ranked 109 by Intermat. Cassar was unranked after he won his state championship his senior year and was mentioned by Intermat under others, not ranked. Not injured either, he was mentioned again in 2015 by FLO because of the progress he made as a RS as the reason why Kellen Stout might not make an impact. Then, he got injured.

Matt Brown took a mission and showed up PSU in 2012, but I can tell you he was not a top-50 prospect. I saw enough of the recruiting class rankings to see that. Take him off if you want. Doesn't make a dent in the stats.

Yes, the reality is that recruiting is a large part of success in the NCAA. The stats show that. The stats also show that what you do with a top recruit is a big part. Iowa has had 10 top-10 recruits since 2010. They have 2 champs, one with multiple titles. Waiting on the next one.
 
Matt Brown took a mission and showed up PSU in 2012, but I can tell you he was not a top-50 prospect. I saw enough of the recruiting class rankings to see that. Take him off if you want. Doesn't make a dent in the stats.
Folks can read Matt Brown’s book about his recruiting.

Cael saw him wrestle at a clinic or camp he was at. Brown wrestled well against someone that was a known recruit at the camp. But no one was recruiting Brown. He was set to attend Army West Point until Cael convinced him to go ROTC. There was no scholarship money


Brown’s dad or parents went to Penn St. He visited campus on his own dime while in town while Sunderland was coach. There was no interest from Sunderland.

I thought Brown did a redshirt year at Iowa State. I could be mistaken. I recall he purchased weight lifting bands and worked out with them extensively while on his mission trip.

He then followed Cael to Penn St.

Someone correct me if needed.
 
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So if Brands was the coach of PSU for the last 13 years and had 4 fewer championships, what other D-1 teams win these 4?

Tom Brands is a far better coach than you would ever give him credit. I think Tom would have done quite well with same wrestlers PSU has had for the last 13 years. Really well actually.

Tom needs top 10 P4P talent at Iowa and has struggled to consistently get it. PSU has not struggled at all.
Tom has had 10 top ten recruits since 2010. If his hypothetical performance with the PSU recruits was similar to the actual results he put up with top-10 results, it would have resulted in less than half as many champs as Cael had according to the data. Cut PSUs champs in half and reduce their finalists by 25% and 2013, 2014, and 2018 go to OK State, Minnesota, and Ohio State, while 2011 is a coin flip at best.

I didn't say Brands was a bad coach and have never said he's not a top one. I just think there's a big gap between Cael and EVERYONE else.
 
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BTW, I'm done responding to all the opinion stuff.

The point of this thread was to take a statistical look at PSUs performance with different tiers of recruits and compare them to other teams performances with like recruits.

If you have some stats to post, have at it.

If you just want to post subjective opinions like the recruiting rankings were wrong in one case but not the other, or things like PSU has more top recruits (which the comparison is trying to normalize and make less relevant) your argument is misplaced.

Everything in my posts are based on data, including the posit that Brands would win 4 fewer titles. If you have have data that contradicts this have at it. My research was not exhaustive at this point and there could be data points that have not been considered.
 
I'm also preemptively ignoring ITs post, since it is inconceivable he could post a response based on data - that would break a streak of probably over 10k posts he has made with no facts attached. Well, no facts that are grounded in the reality outside his mind.
 
BTW, I'm done responding to all the opinion stuff.

The point of this thread was to take a statistical look at PSUs performance with different tiers of recruits and compare them to other teams performances with like recruits.

If you have some stats to post, have at it.

If you just want to post subjective opinions like the recruiting rankings were wrong in one case but not the other, or things like PSU has more top recruits (which the comparison is trying to normalize and make less relevant) your argument is misplaced.

Everything in my posts are based on data, including the posit that Brands would win 4 fewer titles. If you have have data that contradicts this have at it. My research was not exhaustive at this point and there could be data points that have not been considered.

FWIW,

I enjoy stats like this. Hope you still plan on compiling/sharing more schools.

My quick takeaway:

Doing more with more=dynasty
 
BTW, I'm done responding to all the opinion stuff.

The point of this thread was to take a statistical look at PSUs performance with different tiers of recruits and compare them to other teams performances with like recruits.

If you have some stats to post, have at it.

If you just want to post subjective opinions like the recruiting rankings were wrong in one case but not the other, or things like PSU has more top recruits (which the comparison is trying to normalize and make less relevant) your argument is misplaced.

Everything in my posts are based on data, including the posit that Brands would win 4 fewer titles. If you have have data that contradicts this have at it. My research was not exhaustive at this point and there could be data points that have not been considered.

Feelings matter more than data for some people. 🤷
 
FWIW,

I enjoy stats like this. Hope you still plan on compiling/sharing more schools.

My quick takeaway:

Doing more with more=dynasty
Yes, I will. I would like to do tOSU next. I suspect they will not fare well, given that I have been expecting them to be our foremost challenger for several years now based on their recruiting, but they've consistently disappointed.

Doing more with more. Very well stated, better than I could come up with. Pithy and on the mark.
 
Yes, I will. I would like to do tOSU next. I suspect they will not fare well, given that I have been expecting them to be our foremost challenger for several years now based on their recruiting, but they've consistently disappointed.

Doing more with more. Very well stated, better than I could come up with. Pithy and on the mark.
I suspect Cornell will fare very well in further analysis.
 
The problem for me is I have been drinking tonight and have zero clue how to read this post
 
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The problem for me is I have been drinking tonight and have zero clue how to read this post

Welp, I guess read it tomorrow. In the meantime...

cheers-shaun-of-the-dead.gif
 
Your daughter needs her allowance cut if she’s going to be sassy like that
Daughter is 24. I'm down visiting her and her brothers for the holiday. Very nice change of pace having older kids and having them host for the first time.

As I'm a guest in HER house now, she's officially allowed to be as sassy as she wants. I'm going to ask her for an allowance on her next raise.
 
So if Brands was the coach of PSU for the last 13 years and had 4 fewer championships, what other D-1 teams win these 4?

Tom Brands is a far better coach than you would ever give him credit. I think Tom would have done quite well with same wrestlers PSU has had for the last 13 years. Really well actually.

Tom needs top 10 P4P talent at Iowa and has struggled to consistently get it. PSU has not struggled at all.
Recruiting is a huge part of building a good program. It's a big part of coaching.
 
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