ESPN playoff predictor
- Thread starter bdgan
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They would take the four undefeated teams and there wouldn’t be any question about it. Fewest losses (among P5 team) has always been the primary consideration of the playoff committee. And winning a CCG has always been a big tie breaker among similar candidates.
Oklahoma as weak as their schedule would be wouldn’t be worried - they’d have defeated Texas (likely twice) who defeated Alabama at Bama. Zero chance you take Bama or a Georgia that Bama beat over them.
FSU could be an argument but in addition to winning the ACC, they have 2 wins over SEC teams in that scenario. I can’t imagine they’d be left out.
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By the time it's said and done, we probably end up with no more than 2 undefeated teams and just enough 1 loss teams to fill out the 4.
It’s not but if psu/osu/um split they’re going to take the conference champ because it’s the least messy.
Yeah OU's schedule is not the toughest. Need WVU to shock the world!
It’s funny that you think they would leave out a one loss SEC champion named Bama after beating Georgia. Not sure who would be left out, but I am sure of one thing, Bama would be in.
Why do you make a statements using such absolute terms? You even contradicted yourself with your second sentence.
There is a chance for it to happen, not a good or likely one, but a chance.
To add to it, a 1-loss Texas team that theoretically would win the Big 12 would be sitting pretty in comparison to a theoretical 1-loss Bama team who won the SEC. Bama would be sitting pretty compared to a theoretical 1-loss UGA team they beat in the SEC CCG.
There are so many scenarios to play out. Sure, discuss if you want. But don’t make ridiculous absolute statements unless it is something truly determined.
Provided none of those teams have more than one loss. No 2-loss team has ever been in the 4-team Playoffs and this year is no exception unless there are only 3 one or no loss teams out there
No 1 loss P5 team is going to be chosen over an undefeated P5 champion. It would not happen, no matter what the name of the 1 loss team is.
Granted, that's an extremely unlikely scenario so there's no way to test it but the CFP Committee has been steadfast in using fewest losses as the first criteria in terms of teams being chosen (granted, they don't come out and say that explicitely, but it's been very consistent).
more to your point, if they had wanted to take a "close but worse record" Alabama team, then would have chosen them last year over TCU but they did not.
Agreed. I expect that some teams will have 1 loss but not two. Look at the BiG. PSU could have two losses (OSU & UM) but in that case they wouldn't be the conference champ.
Less than a tenth of a percent isn't statistically revelant and is still none.
You can discuss situations unlikely scenarios all you want but we all know at 12-1 Georgia is in
See us when? In 2016? We had more losses than the teams that made it. Again, fewest losses is the first criteria.
Two teams with identical records. One with a win over the other and is conference champion, the other with no marquee win? No way Georgia would jump Bama in that scenario.
What would be Georgia's claim? That they were ranked higher all season and won the championship the year before?
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Who said they jump Bama. They stay ahead of other teams. Not the year before the past 2 years...you may not want that to matter but it does.
I don't agree with that, but I think their computer has Ohio State with a shot of getting into the playoff at either 11-1 or 12-1, while Michigan pretty much needs to be 13-0.
And isn't Ohio State very likely to win a tiebreaker if all 3 go 11-1
Almost a certainty OSU wins the 3 way tiebreak. Iowa beating Wisconsin this weekend might give us a glimmer, but Illinois and NW are going to f* us unless they can both spring some upsets, preferably against whoever they have left amongst Wisconsin/Purdue/Minnesota.
Michigan has no chance to win it. They'd need Nebraska to finish with a better conference record than Wisconsin because they share the other 2 crossovers with OSU.
0 loss vs 1 loss and 1 loss vs 2 loss is a part of resume. It got Cincy in the playoff in '21. It kept us out in '16. There hasn't been an example of a multi loss team getting in over one with less losses yet. They could, but the precedent doesn't exist.
They could play Texas again in the Big 12 title game, that is possible, correct?
If Florida State is the ACC champ then Bama and UGA don't make it. If North Carolina is the undefeated ACC champ then Bama or UGA gets picked over them.
Part of--yes
Not the top reason
It didn't get UCF in the playoffs right?
Cincinnati got lucky it was a down year.
And yes, multiple losses over one loss--but that's not what we're discussing
If Texas wins out then beats Okie in B12 CG then should be in playoff unless there are 4 undefeated teams from B10, Pac 12, ACC and SEC.
You gotta figure UGA is in going undefeated. If they lose to Bama in SEC CG and Bama only has one loss then Bama in as long as not 4 undefeated teams. UGA out if Bama beats them in SEC championship game and there is undefeated FSU, scUM and undefeated Pac 12 champ. Even if Pac 12 champ has one loss then I think UGA still out if they lose to Bama in SEC CG. Then you have undefeated scUM and FSU. A one loss Texas if they run table and then Bama. Or Okie is undefeated then scUM, FSU, Okie all undefeated and one loss Bama who won SEC CG.
FSU looking good now and could run table and be in.
B10 champ in definitely. Call it scUM for this purpose.
Then probably Pac 12 champ but if not an undefeated USC, Wash, or Oregon then whatever one wins Pac 12 CG game is probably in unless a bunch of undefeated teams or they all end up with two losses or Pac 12 CG winner has 2 losses. Then who knows.
One loss B10 team who lose tie breaker or have head to head loss with B10 champ. For simplicity say it is OSU or PSU. Have a shot but need chaos in Pac 12 and probably ACC, in other words all contenders getting 2 losses or FSU getting 2 losses. Definitely would need a 2nd loss by Bama.
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I can see that, but if undefeated NC defeats undefeated FSU in the ACC CCG, I don't see a 1 loss team jumping them, even if it is the SEC champ. But I wouldn't be shocked either.
The discussion was undefeated power 5s being jumped by a 1 loss SEC champion or potentially 1 loss UGA as runner-up. If there are 4 P5 Conference champs that finish 13-0, there is no precedent for a 1 loss team to jump them. Resume debate only exists, thus far, when trying to decide between teams with equal losses.
I'm not saying it is right because if UGA and Bama finish as stated above, they are very likely 2 of the best of 4 teams. However, it would put the committee in a bind to jump one or both of them over any of 4 undefeated P5 champs.
Not really because the playoff is expanding. They'll say their job is to put in the best four teams.
I could be wrong but I can't create any scenario that leaves out a one loss Georgia.
They'd be ahead of anyone in the ACC or Big XII that's undefeated.
1. Undefeated Big Ten
2. Undefeated Pac XII
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Undefeated Big XII
6. Undefeated ACC
7. 1 loss Big Ten
That would be unprecedented, but to have 4 P5 teams undefeated and 1 of them NOT be an SEC team would be also.
In this theory, Oklahoma would be the undefeated Big 12 rep, who would likely have 2 wins over Texas (who beat Bama soundly).
As for the ACC, if both FSU and North Carolina finish undefeated, they both would have wins over SEC opponents (LSU, South Carolina).
Again, the precedent says the SEC gets left out under this scenario. Or is there a pick I'm forgetting that states otherwise?
Also, I don't think we have this many undefeated teams going into ccg week. This is just Ss&Gs.
That is ridiculous.
A one loss, non champion Georgia would be behind an undefeated Big Ten Champion, undefeated OU, an undefeated PAC champion, undefeated FSU AND SEC one loss Bama, and arguably, 12-1 non champ Texas.
Georgia may not even have a single win vs a ranked team come December.
Yes, 12-1 Georgia will be ahead of Oklahoma with 2 wins over Texas and nothing else.
The committee always favor the SEC and in particular Bama and Georgia.
I also think the discussion is moot as it won't happen but 2 time defending champ that goes 12-1 won't be in a bowl game.
The easiest way to end the NCAA is for that to happen. The SEC will the join with the Big Ten leaving everyone else out.
OU would have two wins over the Texas team that beat Bama. The Bama team that Georgia lost to.
Where are Georgia's wins that are equivalent to beating Texas twice? Kentucky? Tennessee? Georgia Tech?
Being champion last year will not get them into the playoff if they aren't SEC champs and there are three plus undefeated P5 champs.
Wrong. Georgia at 12-1 is a lock. The committee will value their SEC win despite your opinion.
Texas beating Bama has zero factor is a OU-Georgia comparison.
Oklahoma's SOS will be borderline horrific.
Georgia's remaining SOS 21
Oklahoma 51
Georgia's safe at 12-0 no matter what happens in the SECCG.
OU's SOS would be better than Georgia's.
Beating Texas twice tops ANY two of Georgia's wins. Beating a 9-3 Kentucky or Tennessee does not compare. Kentucky and Tennessee are equivalent to beating Kansas.
By your logic the playoffs could be:
- Undefeated FSU (ACC)
- Undefeated Oklahoma (BIG 12)
- 1 Loss GA
- 1 loss Alabama
Possibly left out:
- 1 loss PSU
- 1 loss OSU
- 1 loss UM
- 1 loss USC
- 1 loss Oregon
- 1 loss Washington
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