This is easy
#1 Alabama
#2 UGA
#3 Oregon
#4 OSU gets final spot after 2 weeks of Herbie whitewashing early loss to #3 Oregon, while playing a freshman QB
What a day in CFB - really resets the CFP chess board....
- Thread starter Midnighter2
- Start date
#1 Alabama
#2 UGA
#3 Oregon
#4 OSU gets final spot after 2 weeks of Herbie whitewashing early loss to #3 Oregon, while playing a freshman QB
Kerry Collins, Ki-Jana Carter, and the rest of the 1994 squad say Hi
Rose Bowl and pollsters screwed us there.
We definitely would have been in a 4 team playoff.
Hell, we'd have made the BCS that year no questions asked.
There is a lot of absolute type statements made in this thread for how early it is in the season. PSU has to win out only to control their destiny. There are realistic scenarios to lose a game and still end up as one of the favorites to make the CFP, with the best being lose to Iowa in October.
Also, a potential UGA/Bama CCG loser is not guaranteed a spot in the CFP right now.
tOSU and UW’s losses have left open the door for there being more viable contenders for a spot. Hopefully, Auburn can do us a favor or two in SEC play.
Also, a potential UGA/Bama CCG loser is not guaranteed a spot in the CFP right now.
tOSU and UW’s losses have left open the door for there being more viable contenders for a spot. Hopefully, Auburn can do us a favor or two in SEC play.
Playoff. It’s not a playoff. It’s strictly an invitational. The rules change even within a year on how a team may be selected. Hardly the standard of qualifying for an actual playoff.
But I digress.
But I digress.
This x100.
There is no way that PSU is even considered to be left out if it goes 13-0, hell, I'd be surprised if they weren't ranked #1 in that scenario based on the strength of the B1G East.
A 12-1 B1G champion PSU will also be very compelling, IMO, assuming the loss isn't a bad loss, but not 100%-in like the scenario above.
An 11-1 non champion PSU likely doesn't make it without a lot of chaos. An 11-2 B1G champion Penn State is likely in the same position based on previous experience, although I personally believe had the 2016 Michigan game been closer that the CFP committee would have put PSU in at #4. I still think they should have considering the state of the roster for that game. The Pitt game couldn't be held against PSU that year as they had beat Clemson at Clemson, too.
PSU was #1, but dropped in the polls after a 63-14 beat down of Ohio State
to be clear, your post said that PSU would not be dropped in the polls if they win out. In '94 PSU spanked a ranked OSU team 63-14 and were dropped in the polls.
Full stop
Didn’t you just write “if Oregon goes undefeated they are in. Notre Dame the same way”?
And now you write “If we win out, we are in no questions asked”.
One of those two statements doesn’t make any sense since the SEC will get in at least two.
If Ohio State and Wisconsin would have taken care of business with Oregon and Notre Dame, we could have probably gotten in with one loss as long as it wasn’t to Ohio State or Auburn. We would have DEFINITELY gotten in if we go undefeated. Now, even if we go undefeated, it’s a crap shoot, and we have very rarely fared well in crap shoots.
Still a LONG way to go, but Ohio State and Wisconsin sure didn’t do us any favors.
If Penn State, Oregon, and ND are all undefeated, the loser of the presumed Alabama/UGA game is going to #5. Maybe you are right and I am wrong, but we just see the philosophy different there. One loss loser between any other one loss teams, sure.
While fun to think about, it's waaaay too early to start thinking about playoff hypotheticals. Every year after nonconference season things change dramatically. While right now it looks like there are many contenders in the east, I guarantee that some will be exposed as pretenders by the end of the season. Conference play is a grind and will expose those that are not worthy.
A one loss SEC team is not getting in ahead of an undefeated Oregon or Penn State team….not gonna happen.
And that right there is why we had to have Oregon and Notre Dame lose to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Both those B1G teams, by losing, left our fate in the hands of the Committee who has a history of leaning SEC.
The national media, who drives the narrative, right now are almost universally united that the Georgia/Alabama loser will be in. Oregon and Notre Dame absolutely MUST lose.
1) if we enter CCG week with Alabama/UGA 1/2, Oregon, ND, and Penn State all undefeated, the team who likely gets hurt the most is the one who doesn't play a CCG . So even if they were to pick a 1 loss SEC team, I think ND is the odd man out.
2) I don't think that many teams end up undefeated. Honestly, I could see Cincinnati as the most likely undefeated team if they beat ND.
The SEC West is going to be a slugfest much like the Big 10 East. Just losing 1 game is going to be impressive this year.
You’re kidding, right?
If the season ended today, by almost all projections, the loser of the SEC Championship game between Georgia and Alabama would be seeded number 2. If Mississippi won, Georgia would be no lower than 4.
We have to all be Arkansas fans this week! 🙂 That might actually be a GREAT game. Arkansas might actually be able to control the line of scrimmage. They might have the best defensive line in the country. They have completely physically manhandled every team they have played. They threw a good Texas offensive line around like toys.
Agreed. There is zero chance that a 1 loss SEC team will get in over an undefeated Power 5 conference champ. It's an entirely different story talking about a 1 loss non-champion SEC team versus a 1 loss champion from another conference but I still suspect being a champ would be a decisive criteria.
The only time a second/non-champion SEC made the playoff was in 2017 when 11-1 Alabama got in over 2 loss champions (Ohio St and USC)
Also, as an aside, everyone know that John Urschel is on the CFP committee this year, right? And the committee chair is the Iowa AD.
The one thing I could see is a 1 loss CCG loser getting in over an undefeated Notre Dame because the latter would not have "won a championship" and they might seek to avoid penalizing a CCG loser for playing an extra game. They already established a precedent though where in teams with equal losses, they would favor a team having won a championship game (i.e. 2014 where tOSU went in over the Big 12 co-champions who did not have a CCG at that time).
Any word on the Arkansas QB? They struggled to move the ball against A&M despite their line play when he was not on the field. Though he did return for a series or two toward the end of the game he was hobbling noticeably.
IDK, Oregon has a weak schedule ahead. If they struggle a game of two it will hurt them. Could drop behind a one loss SEC team it the loss is in their CCG.
I do not like our chances of getting a nod over Notre Dump if we are both undefeated.
If Oregon and Notre Dump go undefeated and then GA has 1 loss to Bama in SEC title game then we will go in ahead of GA. Even the sick dimented minds of college football playoff committees can't put a one loss no conference champ ahead of an undefeated B10 champ.
The problem we have now is both Notre Dump and Oregon have a good shot of running the table with their remaining schedules so assuming Bama is undefeated you have 3 in for sure.
I would like to think we could squeak in if we lose to Iowa and beat the Luckeyes and win the B10. But that would necessitate a GA loss to Florida then a Florida 2nd loss to Bama and probably other dominoes to fall our way like Okie losing. We should match up well vs Okie as one loss teams if our loss is to Iowa and then we revenge it in the B10 title game vs Okie losing to a worse team.
If Oregon and Notre Dump go undefeated and then GA has 1 loss to Bama in SEC title game then we will go in ahead of GA. Even the sick dimented minds of college football playoff committees can't put a one loss no conference champ ahead of an undefeated B10 champ.
The problem we have now is both Notre Dump and Oregon have a good shot of running the table with their remaining schedules so assuming Bama is undefeated you have 3 in for sure.
I would like to think we could squeak in if we lose to Iowa and beat the Luckeyes and win the B10. But that would necessitate a GA loss to Florida then a Florida 2nd loss to Bama and probably other dominoes to fall our way like Okie losing. We should match up well vs Okie as one loss teams if our loss is to Iowa and then we revenge it in the B10 title game vs Okie losing to a worse team.
But the season doesn’t end today….if we beat Iowa, OSU, Michigan, MSU, Maryland, and Indiana and go undefeated, we’re in, no questions asked. No way a one loss SEC non-champion gets in over an undefeated Big champ…that’s just plain paranoia.
Possibly, but doubtful….I still see an undefeated conference champ with a win over OSU and two wins over UCLA getting in over a one loss non-champ.
If we end up undefeated (which we won’t) we would be in the playoffs no matter what anyone else does. Anyone with even an ounce of football knowledge knows how tough the Big East is and then throw in wins over Wiscy and Iowa as our cross over games and a win over Auburn, it’s a slam dunk.
I agree - it’s more about what happens if/when you have a half dozen or more one loss teams some of whom are conference champs (plus ND).
The one wrench I could see is if both Bama and Georgia go undefeated and Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game. Does the committee keep out Bama regardless of who else may be undefeated?
I don't recall PSU dropping in the polls after the OSU win. I recall them dropping from #1 to #2 after the close win against Indiana. That situation is not even close to comparable to a scenario where PSU goes undefeated in 2021.
I could see them getting in over Notre Dame in the circumstances outlined above.
I'm curious about the Ole Miss Bama game myself right now. Kiffin threw all over Bama last year, he just couldn't get a stop. This year, his defense ought to be good for a couple.
Nonetheless, it is true. In one poll in remained #1; in the other, PSU dropped to #2. After the Indiana game, both polls had Penn State at #2.
J
they absolutely dropped in one of the polls after beating OSU. Dropped in the other after Indiana
they absolutely dropped in one of the polls after beating OSU. Dropped in the other after Indiana
I was at that game at Indiana, and it was only close because we called off the dogs and let them score two quick TDs at the end. Score was closer than expected, the game was not.
PENN STATE 35, INDIANA 29
BLOOMINGTON, IND., NOV. 5 -- Indiana's second-string quarterback gave second-ranked Penn State its biggest scare of the season.
The Nittany Lions, who lost their No. 1 ranking to Nebraska last week, gave up two touchdown passes to Indiana's Chris Dittoe in the final two minutes but held on to beat the Hoosiers, 35-29, today.
If that 94 team can be dropped after winning, and there is a way for the 2021 committee to apply the look test amongst similar teams and do early-loss/close-win mental gymnastics, anything can happen.
IIRC it wasn’t so much that PSU was dropped but that Nebraska passed us after that weekend. PSU retained our first place votes, but Nebraska picked up/most of the ones Colorado had. IOW, I recall Nebraska jumping up as a bunch of polls went from:
1. CU 2. PSU 3. NU to 1. NU 2. PSU
or
1. PSU 2.CU 3. NU to 1. PSU 2. NU
Polls that were 1.PSU 2. NU or 1.NU 2.PSU probably mostly stayed unchanged
Colorado and Nebraska had more combined #1 votes than PSU going into the weekend
(I’m not justifying what happened just explaining the mechanics.)
1. CU 2. PSU 3. NU to 1. NU 2. PSU
or
1. PSU 2.CU 3. NU to 1. PSU 2. NU
Polls that were 1.PSU 2. NU or 1.NU 2.PSU probably mostly stayed unchanged
Colorado and Nebraska had more combined #1 votes than PSU going into the weekend
(I’m not justifying what happened just explaining the mechanics.)
Ok, half a mea culpa. Nevertheless, it was a completely different situation than current. Not applicable to 2021.
Agreed. If you look at the ranking trends this year, it's clear that for once we're on the right side of pollster politics. If we win out, we're in. Period. Same for Oregon.
Now if Oklahoma and Notre Dame were to win out, and a hypothetical Alabama-Georgia matchup were close, things would get interesting. SEC propaganda would fill the airwaves, but both the Irish and Sooners have large lobbies of their own. Ironically, however, the rest of the Big-12 might take a lot of satisfaction in Oklahoma getting screwed over...especially at the hands of the SEC.
Our problem is that the winner of the B1G east is not likely to be undefeated. Iowa, on the other hand, looks to have smooth sailing, at least until the conference championship game, if they beat us in two weeks.
Yep. And that never happens if Kordell Stewart doesn’t complete that freakin Hail Mary to Michael Westbrook. Those votes would have been ours. Not Colorado’s. The Michigan loss to Colorado screwed us.
I remember watching that play in the HUB after walking back from our Rutgers game, and realized our fate was no longer in our own hands.
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