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Tesla - exited short sale

Maybe one should question mining practices. Cleveland Cliffs mines in Minnesota it takes 1 and half coal cars of aggregate to yield one quarter sized steel ball bearing for melt to iron ore and we are worried about gross tonnage for cobalt?? fact is that some folks seem to have bearing on the topic but refuse to acknowledge all the other uses of cobalt-- as if it was a 1:1 ratio for EV batteries only or mutually exclusive

and if also noted is not primarily mined as a stand alone (nickle and copper) so there's that too that gets factored in the infamous 500,000 pounds (tranlsate 250 tons) ooohh so heavy

https://www.chemicool.com/elements/cobalt.html
I did not bring up the mining stats, but I am apparently a lot more curious about this than a lot of people in this thread.
I think if an environmental comparison is going to be made between EV and conventional vehicles it should not be restricted to a single metric which is CO2 production. Apparently, some here would disagree. But even with the question of CO2 production, it should be a “ womb to tomb “ comparison.

I recall when CFL’s were all the rage. They were going to slow Global Warming, we were told. Walmart sold 300 million one year. Being a dentist, I have found myself in the crosshairs of agencies regulating Mercury pollution, a tiny amount of which is caused by dentistry due to amalgam ( silver ) restorations. We are mandated to place separation devices for our wastewater that strains the metaphorical gnat from a camel to comply and we do this at our cost.
Meanwhile, Joe Q Public is tossing hundreds of millions of Mercury - containing CFL’s into the regular trash ( you’re not supposed to do this ) which inevitably results in groundwater contamination by Mercury.
Thankfully, CFL’s are disappearing, but they will leave a legacy of environmental stupidity.
 
I did not bring up the mining stats, but I am apparently a lot more curious about this than a lot of people in this thread.
I think if an environmental comparison is going to be made between EV and conventional vehicles it should not be restricted to a single metric which is CO2 production. Apparently, some here would disagree. But even with the question of CO2 production, it should be a “ womb to tomb “ comparison.

I recall when CFL’s were all the rage. They were going to slow Global Warming, we were told. Walmart sold 300 million one year. Being a dentist, I have found myself in the crosshairs of agencies regulating Mercury pollution, a tiny amount of which is caused by dentistry due to amalgam ( silver ) restorations. We are mandated to place separation devices for our wastewater that strains the metaphorical gnat from a camel to comply and we do this at our cost.
Meanwhile, Joe Q Public is tossing hundreds of millions of Mercury - containing CFL’s into the regular trash ( you’re not supposed to do this ) which inevitably results in groundwater contamination by Mercury.
Thankfully, CFL’s are disappearing, but they will leave a legacy of environmental stupidity.

Do you really think that you’re the first person to think to do a full life cycle analysis on electric cars?

There have been numerous comprehensive studies; EVs require 15-60% additional emissions to manufacture compared to ICEs; this is recouped in 6-18 months of driving. Over the lifetime of an EV the emissions are half on average in regions that use fossil fuels to generate electricity. In regions with more hydro and nuclear electrical generation it’s significantly less than half.
 
Do you really think that you’re the first person to think to do a full life cycle analysis on electric cars?

There have been numerous comprehensive studies; EVs require 15-60% additional emissions to manufacture compared to ICEs; this is recouped in 6-18 months of driving. Over the lifetime of an EV the emissions are half on average in regions that use fossil fuels to generate electricity. In regions with more hydro and nuclear electrical generation it’s significantly less than half.
Did you read what I just wrote ?
The CO2 emissions are just one metric as far as environmental impact ( I wrote ).
What kind of mining operations are going to result from large scale EV adoption and what will be the impacts ? What about battery disposal ? Is there an economically viable process developing in parallel for reclaiming the battery components, or are we someday going to see mountainous auto salvage yards of used EV’s with dripping batteries ?
Reading through this thread, this subject seems more like a religion to some people. It is apparently blasphemy just to raise questions.
 
As with emissions, the potential impacts of scaling mining, viability of recycling, etc have have been studied extensively. Sure, there are unknowns and variables in the models but the net impacts are positive and getting better as conflict minerals are engineered out of battery chemistry and battery recycling is scaled.

My beef is that the same people who have suddenly decided to wring their hands about electric vehicles have not similarly scrutinized the ongoing environmental, geopolitical and human health impacts of our dependency on oil.
 
As with emissions, the potential impacts of scaling mining, viability of recycling, etc have have been studied extensively. Sure, there are unknowns and variables in the models but the net impacts are positive and getting better as conflict minerals are engineered out of battery chemistry and battery recycling is scaled.

My beef is that the same people who have suddenly decided to wring their hands about electric vehicles have not similarly scrutinized the ongoing environmental, geopolitical and human health impacts of our dependency on oil.
It is a matter of comparison between the two technologies. And everything should be on the table as far as analysis, not just CO2 emissions. I am open to argument, but not convinced that EV’s will actually mitigate climate change. I still think EV’s will replace ICE vehicles as the technology improves and costs drop.

Personally, I often wonder if technological civilizations like ours are even sustainable. Either they go through some transition to some sort of future that is sustainable or possibly extinguish themselves. The fact that we have been listening for radio signals for over fifty years and heard nothing is obviously not encouraging.
 
It is a matter of comparison between the two technologies. And everything should be on the table as far as analysis, not just CO2 emissions. I am open to argument, but not convinced that EV’s will actually mitigate climate change. I still think EV’s will replace ICE vehicles as the technology improves and costs drop.

Personally, I often wonder if technological civilizations like ours are even sustainable. Either they go through some transition to some sort of future that is sustainable or possibly extinguish themselves. The fact that we have been listening for radio signals for over fifty years and heard nothing is obviously not encouraging.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
It is a matter of comparison between the two technologies. And everything should be on the table as far as analysis, not just CO2 emissions. I am open to argument, but not convinced that EV’s will actually mitigate climate change. I still think EV’s will replace ICE vehicles as the technology improves and costs drop.

Personally, I often wonder if technological civilizations like ours are even sustainable. Either they go through some transition to some sort of future that is sustainable or possibly extinguish themselves. The fact that we have been listening for radio signals for over fifty years and heard nothing is obviously not encouraging.

Are you also counting all the other stuff that's in gas and diesel exhaust besides CO2?
 
I just saw that Tesla shares have soared past $500, Hope poster who shorted them is Ok.

a few people shorted them. I got out some time ago, but will look again. did you see anything about their earnings growth or what the P/E is on the stock?
 
a few people shorted them. I got out some time ago, but will look again. did you see anything about their earnings growth or what the P/E is on the stock?

A few? From NPR yesterday (the final quote in this article is hilarious):

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

January 16, 20204:22 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has always had ambitious goals. Make electric cars cool, save the world, all while making money as a brand new car manufacturer.

And from the start some people have been confident that he would fail. So they shorted Tesla stock — placing a bet that the company's stock value would collapse.

So far, that has been a phenomenally bad bet.

In the first two weeks of 2020 alone, short sellers were down some $2.6 billion, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners.

"It's not a happy new year for Tesla short sellers," he says.

Tesla stock debuted at less than $20 a share in 2010. It hit $200 in 2014. And now, after strong deliveries in the fourth quarter and the successful launch of a new factory in China, it's above $500 — giving the company the highest valuation of any U.S. carmaker ever.

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

"We've lost a lot of money," says Mark Spiegel, the head of a small hedge fund that placed a very large bet against Tesla.

Spiegel's fund lost more than $1 million from shorting Tesla, which he started doing back in 2014. This week, he began cutting back.

"[It was] at 20% of the fund, sometimes a third of the fund, and I slashed it back today because [the stock price] is just so decoupled from reality," he said on Monday.

"I am the world's worst predictor of Tesla's stock price," he said.

But he's far from the only one.

Most companies don't have investors betting against them like this, and when they do it's normal for 3% to 8% of a company's stock to be shorted, according to Dusaniwsky.

At the start of 2020, more than 20% of Tesla stock was shorted. As of Jan. 15, it's the single most-shorted stock on the U.S. market. Some major hedge funds are among the most active short sellers.

Musk seems to take this personally. He once called short sellers "jerks who want us to die," and he's tussled with prominent short sellers on Twitter.

He's also repeatedly warned them that they're making a bad bet — once saying a "tsunami of pain" was coming for those who bet against the company. And he's repeatedly been right.

'Cultish convictions on both sides'

Dusaniwsky says the community of Tesla short sellers is unusual — not just for its size, but for its passion. Meanwhile, Tesla also has a highly energetic community of superfans and Elon Musk enthusiasts.

"It's not just a financial transaction," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost a lifestyle choice to be on one side or the other."

There's a very public battle between the two sides, waged on Twitter, podcasts, YouTube channels and the business press.

The Tesla fans say Musk is a genius and a visionary, who's made droolworthy, eco-friendly cars with cutting-edge autonomous technology. And sales are through the roof, they point out.

The Tesla shorts, like Spiegel, say Musk is an erratic fraud. They say Tesla's Autopilot technology is dangerous or even "homicidal," and that the company's sales rely on subsidies that will eventually run out.

"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does."

His data shows some short sellers are finally backing away from their investments as Tesla's remarkable rally continues. Forty percent of all the short sales of Tesla stock have been closed out since June 30, 2019. That means major losses, given Tesla's stock market surge.

But it still leaves a lot of investors holding on. "They're just staying in a position no matter what," Dusaniwsky says.

Even Spiegel, who has reduced the size of his position, hasn't changed his mind about the company's future.

He still says the stock prices will collapse — eventually.

Just like he's been saying for years.

"Obviously we've been way too early on the timing," Spiegel says. "But you never know that in advance."
 
By all accounts Tesla has a great product and they have negotiated large subsidies from China. The question is where they go from here and if competitors can respond. Stocks are priced based on projected future cash flows and Tesla has a long way to go to justify current valuations. Some analysts think the real profit opportunities for Tesla are developing a national charging network for EVs and developing fleets of robo taxis. Tesla stock could go much higher if those things come to fruition but that's all on the come. At some point they need to monitize their success. It will be interesting to follow.
 
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OIP.QLtBXk-G5qBOXDPX7hEiLAHaDk

That's what I think when you get on one of your PSU wasting money on facilities rants.
 
1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity.

Hmmm, it doesn't look so good for your prediction.

Tesla just released 2019 Q4 financials:

$930M increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q4 to $6.3B $1.0B operating cash flow less capex ("free cash flow") in Q4​

Doesn't look like they are going to be selling more stock to raise cash, but you still have 6 months left.
 
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Hmmm, it doesn't look so good for your prediction.

Tesla just released 2019 Q4 financials:

$930M increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q4 to $6.3B $1.0B operating cash flow less capex ("free cash flow") in Q4​

Doesn't look like they are going to be selling more stock to raise cash, but you still have 6 months left.

You keep lying. Does lying make you feel good?

Tesla announced $380m in profits for Q4. That's fantastic. You said profits are for companies that can't grow. Is Tesla done growing?

I said that Tesla had to become profitable or else they would need to raise cash from other sources like equity. That's still true.

I don't think they filed statements. Just a press release to announce top level numbers. I like to wait and see the statements and footnotes but they were quite positive about 2020.
 
You keep lying. Does lying make you feel good?

Tesla announced $380m in profits for Q4. That's fantastic. You said profits are for companies that can't grow. Is Tesla done growing?

I said that Tesla had to become profitable or else they would need to raise cash from other sources like equity. That's still true.

I don't think they filed statements. Just a press release to announce top level numbers. I like to wait and see the statements and footnotes but they were quite positive about 2020.

You keep lying. Does lying make you feel good?

I'm not lying.

Just following up with what you said earlier in this thread.

I posted this: "So when are you predicting they will run out of cash?"

You replied: "1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity."

You replied on August 31 - page 2 of this thread.

They haven't sold stock to raise cash since your post on August 31. They haven't run out of cash and they haven't had to sell equity so that makes you wrong for now. Hey anything can happen in the next 6 months.

You also posted this which is kinda funny now: "P.S. Nobody is paying $420 per share at this point."
 
You keep lying. Does lying make you feel good?

I'm not lying.

Just following up with what you said earlier in this thread.

I posted this: "So when are you predicting they will run out of cash?"

You replied: "1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity."

You replied on August 31 - page 2 of this thread.

They haven't sold stock to raise cash since your post on August 31. They haven't run out of cash and they haven't had to sell equity so that makes you wrong for now. Hey anything can happen in the next 6 months.

You also posted this which is kinda funny now: "P.S. Nobody is paying $420 per share at this point."
Another misleading comment. "At this point" was shortly after Musk lied and was fined by the SEC. IIRC the stock was trading around $269 back then. At that point nobody was paying $420.
 
Another misleading comment. "At this point" was shortly after Musk lied and was fined by the SEC. IIRC the stock was trading around $269 back then. At that point nobody was paying $420.

I wish I could buy it for 420........
 
My buddy, who loves his Tesla (think his is about 7 years old at this point stresses that Tesla is much more than just a battery and car company. He stresses that Tesla is also a data company.....No other company collects as much data from the road as Tesla does...
 
Not even if you "know" that it's the opportunity of a lifetime?

I may own it in a fund but like I said I don't invest in individual stocks. My job has quite a few restrictions on those activities.
 
Stay short. Keep the faith!

I made out quite nicely with my two short positions and exited a well before the latest run. the stock does not move based on normal earnings growth but on hype. I am watching the real earnings details. Tesla is a car company and it is a bich of a biz to make money in cars. I am sure some of you have been in that sector and can speak to how hard it is to turn profit. what do their future earnings need to look like to justify today's price? how many cars (and what share of the market) do they need? this is not a winner take all market - many people capable of making EV or even hybrids. What does the company look like without any subsidies? all this run up seems to be associated with China plant and market. you can be bullish on EV's and not Tesla - these are mutually exclusive.

BTW - if you think Musk is a genius at RUNNING a company, try to identify any company he has ever run that made sustainable operating profit - like a real business. He has done outstanding SELLING businesses to others. this is common in SV land where the Unicorns live. that is not the same as running a company.
 
I made out quite nicely with my two short positions and exited a well before the latest run. the stock does not move based on normal earnings growth but on hype. I am watching the real earnings details. Tesla is a car company and it is a bich of a biz to make money in cars. I am sure some of you have been in that sector and can speak to how hard it is to turn profit. what do their future earnings need to look like to justify today's price? how many cars (and what share of the market) do they need? this is not a winner take all market - many people capable of making EV or even hybrids. What does the company look like without any subsidies? all this run up seems to be associated with China plant and market. you can be bullish on EV's and not Tesla - these are mutually exclusive.

BTW - if you think Musk is a genius at RUNNING a company, try to identify any company he has ever run that made sustainable operating profit - like a real business. He has done outstanding SELLING businesses to others. this is common in SV land where the Unicorns live. that is not the same as running a company.
Musk is outstanding at obtaining and taking advantage of government subsidies. China helped finance Tesla's plant near Shanghai. China waived it's 10% auto tax and they are also providing a $3,650 per car subsidy. Tesla is currently negotiating for additional subsidies in exchange for using more Chinese manufactured parts.

The U.S. tax credits have expired but as was mentioned half of Tesla's profit was due to selling government EV credits.

Musk is definitely a great salesman and opportunist.
 
I made out quite nicely with my two short positions and exited a well before the latest run. the stock does not move based on normal earnings growth but on hype. I am watching the real earnings details. Tesla is a car company and it is a bich of a biz to make money in cars. I am sure some of you have been in that sector and can speak to how hard it is to turn profit. what do their future earnings need to look like to justify today's price? how many cars (and what share of the market) do they need? this is not a winner take all market - many people capable of making EV or even hybrids. What does the company look like without any subsidies? all this run up seems to be associated with China plant and market. you can be bullish on EV's and not Tesla - these are mutually exclusive.

BTW - if you think Musk is a genius at RUNNING a company, try to identify any company he has ever run that made sustainable operating profit - like a real business. He has done outstanding SELLING businesses to others. this is common in SV land where the Unicorns live. that is not the same as running a company.

sure you did buddy.
 
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Musk is outstanding at obtaining and taking advantage of government subsidies. China helped finance Tesla's plant near Shanghai. China waived it's 10% auto tax and they are also providing a $3,650 per car subsidy. Tesla is currently negotiating for additional subsidies in exchange for using more Chinese manufactured parts.

The U.S. tax credits have expired but as was mentioned half of Tesla's profit was due to selling government EV credits.

Musk is definitely a great salesman and opportunist.

You’ve picked the wrong industry if you want to slight Tesla’s success by pointing to subsidies. Every automaker has been built on subsidies- from bailouts to city and state level tax incentives. Tesla just happens to be getting more incentives right now because, unlike legacy automakers, they are growing quickly and, unlike legacy automakers, they are making products that help governments achieve their decarbonization goals.
 
You’ve picked the wrong industry if you want to slight Tesla’s success by pointing to subsidies. Every automaker has been built on subsidies- from bailouts to city and state level tax incentives. Tesla just happens to be getting more incentives right now because, unlike legacy automakers, they are growing quickly and, unlike legacy automakers, they are making products that help governments achieve their decarbonization goals.
I didn't slight Tesla at all. I merely pointed out that Musk fought for government assistance, he got it, and he's taking advantage of it. Others could have done the same thing but they didn't. Like I said, Musk is a great salesman.

I don't like the government subsidies any more than I like government bailouts. I root for new technologies like renewable energy to succeed. Who wants to spend a lot of money to heat their home and fuel their autos? I just think they should make it on their own merits. That said, I don't blame companies that take advantage of subsidies. My issue is with the government officials that try to pick winners and losers.
 
I didn't slight Tesla at all. I merely pointed out that Musk fought for government assistance, he got it, and he's taking advantage of it. Others could have done the same thing but they didn't. Like I said, Musk is a great salesman.

I don't like the government subsidies any more than I like government bailouts. I root for new technologies like renewable energy to succeed. Who wants to spend a lot of money to heat their home and fuel their autos? I just think they should make it on their own merits. That said, I don't blame companies that take advantage of subsidies. My issue is with the government officials that try to pick winners and losers.

Far more than a salesman, all those subsidies and front ended loans in the 2011 to 2014 years are all about R&D and resource allocation and getting it right. When hes working with the engineers personally to solve the math problems or the production problems that's more than just sales--like to see GM or any other CEO rollup the sleeves.

It might be worthwhile for the naysayers to actually listen to the man talk and maybe you understand the challenges and yet we argue about subsidies and why they are important? this isn't a salesman




and for the bulls
 
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+1 Railroads wouldn't have existed without government land grants. And probably the auto industry as we know it wouldn't exist without the taxpayer-financed interstate highways.

A phased-out $7,000-per-car tax credit is peanuts compared to railroad land and interstate highways. Without it, maybe there'd be no EV industry in the US. But at this point, the phase-out doesn't seem to be hurting Tesla's ability to sell cars. I'd say in this case the government subsidy succeeded. Sometimes they do.

You’ve picked the wrong industry if you want to slight Tesla’s success by pointing to subsidies.
 
I don't really care about you all, but for the sake of your families I hope none of you idiots are short

 
Let’s check back in on everyone’s favorite car company

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney initiated coverage of Tesla Inc. shares (TSLA) with a buy rating and $864 price target late Tuesday, writing of the company's "early-mover advantage" and favorable technology cadence relative to peers as the company can deliver software updates over the air. He expects Tesla to sport a compound annual growth rate "well over 20%" for the next five years and said that Tesla screens well on the basis of enterprise value to sales "especially in the context of the improvements the company has made in cash flow." He also sees Tesla earning $40 to $75 a share "in the 2030 timeframe." Tesla shares are up about 6% in premarket trading Wednesday. The stock has added 70% so far this year as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has lost 12%.
 
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A few? From NPR yesterday (the final quote in this article is hilarious):

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

January 16, 20204:22 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has always had ambitious goals. Make electric cars cool, save the world, all while making money as a brand new car manufacturer.

And from the start some people have been confident that he would fail. So they shorted Tesla stock — placing a bet that the company's stock value would collapse.

So far, that has been a phenomenally bad bet.

In the first two weeks of 2020 alone, short sellers were down some $2.6 billion, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners.

"It's not a happy new year for Tesla short sellers," he says.

Tesla stock debuted at less than $20 a share in 2010. It hit $200 in 2014. And now, after strong deliveries in the fourth quarter and the successful launch of a new factory in China, it's above $500 — giving the company the highest valuation of any U.S. carmaker ever.

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

"We've lost a lot of money," says Mark Spiegel, the head of a small hedge fund that placed a very large bet against Tesla.

Spiegel's fund lost more than $1 million from shorting Tesla, which he started doing back in 2014. This week, he began cutting back.

"[It was] at 20% of the fund, sometimes a third of the fund, and I slashed it back today because [the stock price] is just so decoupled from reality," he said on Monday.

"I am the world's worst predictor of Tesla's stock price," he said.

But he's far from the only one.

Most companies don't have investors betting against them like this, and when they do it's normal for 3% to 8% of a company's stock to be shorted, according to Dusaniwsky.

At the start of 2020, more than 20% of Tesla stock was shorted. As of Jan. 15, it's the single most-shorted stock on the U.S. market. Some major hedge funds are among the most active short sellers.

Musk seems to take this personally. He once called short sellers "jerks who want us to die," and he's tussled with prominent short sellers on Twitter.

He's also repeatedly warned them that they're making a bad bet — once saying a "tsunami of pain" was coming for those who bet against the company. And he's repeatedly been right.

'Cultish convictions on both sides'

Dusaniwsky says the community of Tesla short sellers is unusual — not just for its size, but for its passion. Meanwhile, Tesla also has a highly energetic community of superfans and Elon Musk enthusiasts.

"It's not just a financial transaction," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost a lifestyle choice to be on one side or the other."

There's a very public battle between the two sides, waged on Twitter, podcasts, YouTube channels and the business press.

The Tesla fans say Musk is a genius and a visionary, who's made droolworthy, eco-friendly cars with cutting-edge autonomous technology. And sales are through the roof, they point out.

The Tesla shorts, like Spiegel, say Musk is an erratic fraud. They say Tesla's Autopilot technology is dangerous or even "homicidal," and that the company's sales rely on subsidies that will eventually run out.

"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does."

His data shows some short sellers are finally backing away from their investments as Tesla's remarkable rally continues. Forty percent of all the short sales of Tesla stock have been closed out since June 30, 2019. That means major losses, given Tesla's stock market surge.

But it still leaves a lot of investors holding on. "They're just staying in a position no matter what," Dusaniwsky says.

Even Spiegel, who has reduced the size of his position, hasn't changed his mind about the company's future.

He still says the stock prices will collapse — eventually.

Just like he's been saying for years.

"Obviously we've been way too early on the timing," Spiegel says. "But you never know that in advance."

I made (pocketed) a beach house on Tesla stock. Now playing w/house money on same. Thanks to all feeble-minded f*cktards out there.
 
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I guess the luddites dont want to talk about Tesla anymore

@Pinkhippo PeanutButter
@m.knox
@blion72
@83wuzme

They too busy covering their short positions.

I think one thing driving the Tesla stock price is the absolute failure of the "Tesla killers" that were recently released. The Porsche Taycan, Volvo Polestar, Jaguar I-Pace, whatever "icar" bmw is on now. They all just suck compared to Tesla's offerings. People are starting to realize that the legacy car manufacturers have no idea how build a good electric car. If you think ev's are the future what company do you invest in right now?
 
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