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Amazing Nvidia numbers

The Spin Meister

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Nov 27, 2012
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So they just released some blowout numbers and the stock went even further up. CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Last Call has been posting amazing stats:

The company market cap went up $250’Billion …. In just fifteen minutes! That 15 minute move is more than the total value of Netflix.

Nvidia is worth more than twice the value of the entire Italian stock market.

Homes in Santa Clara are incredibly over priced. A two bedroom home under 1,000 sq ft sold for $1.1 million. A 2000 sq ft home sold for over $3 million.

Crazy stuff
 
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So they just released some blowout numbers and the stock went even further up. CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Last Call has been posting amazing stats:

The company market cap went up $250’Billion …. In just fifteen minutes! That 15 minute move is more than the total value of Netflix.

Nvidia is worth more than twice the value of the entire Italian stock market.

Homes in Santa Clara are incredibly over priced. A two bedroom home under 1,000 sq ft sold for $1.1 million. A 2000 sq ft home sold for over $3 million.

Crazy stuff
Check out SMCI. Up 700% in a year.
 
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So they just released some blowout numbers and the stock went even further up. CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Last Call has been posting amazing stats:

The company market cap went up $250’Billion …. In just fifteen minutes! That 15 minute move is more than the total value of Netflix.

Nvidia is worth more than twice the value of the entire Italian stock market.

Homes in Santa Clara are incredibly over priced. A two bedroom home under 1,000 sq ft sold for $1.1 million. A 2000 sq ft home sold for over $3 million.

Crazy stuff

Nvidia has a juggernaut and it’s going to get bigger. Chips take a long time to produce. Hopefully, crypto will die soon - it’s a fake business. The AI thing isn’t going away. Nvidia doesn’t deserve to be this big, but it’s explainable.
 
Insane but it seems that they are limited right now only by how much they can supply. Also heard an analyst today saying that intel and AMD look like they now have strong alternatives to compete and help satisfy this crazy demand.

The question that I have is which of Nvidia's clients are themselves about to experience a dose of accelerative growth due to AI innovations? I missed the Nvidia run up and I'm not jumping on it now. But there are clearly some diamonds down stream whose growth is yet unrealized.
The use cases I’m seeing aren’t so much to accelerate growth but more so to reduce overhead, fraud, and money laundering.

I think industry is still trying to figure out how to monetize AI. Think Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, and Meta will figure it out first, if they haven’t already done so.
 
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I think it's worthwhile to have a little right now to diversify. Approaching ATH and halving is coming up which typically launches its value into the stratosphere for a little bit. It is extremely volatile. But with bitcoin ETFs officially accepted by the SEC and launched in US markets, it is likely to become more accepted.
And some ETH... Etf's are coming for this as well
 
Insane but it seems that they are limited right now only by how much they can supply. Also heard an analyst today saying that intel and AMD look like they now have strong alternatives to compete and help satisfy this crazy demand.

The question that I have is which of Nvidia's clients are themselves about to experience a dose of accelerative growth due to AI innovations? I missed the Nvidia run up and I'm not jumping on it now. But there are clearly some diamonds down stream whose growth is yet unrealized.
In the discussion last night they saidbghst Nvidia doesn’t even make the chips, just designs high end chips. They contract out the manufacturing to companies like TSMC and other chipmakers.
 
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In the discussion last night they saidbghst Nvidia doesn’t even make the chips, just designs high end chips. They contract out the manufacturing to companies like TSMC and other chipmakers.
Apple's most recent release, among bug fixes, was to upgrade the encryption of messages. Why? Apple anticipates that the release of supercomputers in the very near future will be able to crack the old encryption methods in minutes if not seconds. The National Institute of Standards (NIST, a govt group that creates and enforces the USA's "standards') hasn't caught up yet. So all of these encryption methods will soon be useless. For example, you typical workstation password of 8 characters/upper and lower/plus a control character can be cracked in seconds.

Apple's Next iOS Update Protects iMessage Against Future Quantum Computing Attacks

Although Apple says bad actors aren't using quantum computing to break into your messages yet, this update aims to safeguard them.

 
Two days ago I was sitting on my Schawb account starting to enter a Buy for some SMCI. I thought about, "What if Nvidia has bad earnings?" I chickened out and didn't hit the Buy key. I'm a wimp!


I get it. Nobody knows. I was just responding to the thread about high flyers. A lot of ups and downs. Probably wont close up 30%. It could go down 35% tomorrow.
 
Surprised no one commenting on the housing prices. $1.1 million for home under 1000 sq ft is insane.


That has been a problem for a while. Those are probably tear downs too. Liberals hate affordable housing and diversity in their own neighborhoods and professions.
 
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Surprised no one commenting on the housing prices. $1.1 million for home under 1000 sq ft is insane.
maybe you know what is going on but in my area, I am seeing almost all new builds using or exceeding $1m This is CLEVELAND! The lack of new housing has pushed up everything else. Rents are crazy, You can't rent in a decent place for less than $1750/mo. Flips seem to take forever and cost a ton when all is said and done. You can't get the help and product costs are through the roof.
 
maybe you know what is going on but in my area, I am seeing almost all new builds using or exceeding $1m This is CLEVELAND! The lack of new housing has pushed up everything else. Rents are crazy, You can't rent in a decent place for less than $1750/mo. Flips seem to take forever and cost a ton when all is said and done. You can't get the help and product costs are through the roof.


Many Local governments really dont want affordable housing. They wont admit that but they make it much easier to get Mcamansions approved vs affordable units.

Affordable Multi units fill the schools and schools cost the local governments more money. The one exception is age restricted multi units. Age restricted units bring in tax payers who dont have kids.
 
I get it. Nobody knows. I was just responding to the thread about high flyers. A lot of ups and downs. Probably wont close up 30%. It could go down 35% tomorrow.
Yep. Investing in the stock market is much like playing blackjack at the casino.
 
In the discussion last night they saidbghst Nvidia doesn’t even make the chips, just designs high end chips. They contract out the manufacturing to companies like TSMC and other chipmakers.
The value is in the IP, not the actual manufacturing. Chip making (ie printing the integrated circuit(IC)) is not hard and there is plenty of capacity.

The fabrication of the silicon wafers that the ICs are printed on is TSMC's core business. It is very expensive and time consuming to build a silicon foundry. Once a fab goes online, each wafer takes 5-8 weeks to make. TSMC controls something like 75% of the wafer market after 2 US fabs closed when the US govt declined subsidies a few years back. With the risk of China invading Taiwan, the US passed the CHIPS act which is subsidizing the creation of new chip fabs in the US, most notably by Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron.
 
With the risk of China invading Taiwan, the US passed the CHIPS act which is subsidizing the creation of new chip fabs in the US, most notably by Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron.

With the red tape, nobody can hardly survive without the subsidies.
 
The value is in the IP, not the actual manufacturing. Chip making (ie printing the integrated circuit(IC)) is not hard and there is plenty of capacity.

The fabrication of the silicon wafers that the ICs are printed on is TSMC's core business. It is very expensive and time consuming to build a silicon foundry. Once a fab goes online, each wafer takes 5-8 weeks to make. TSMC controls something like 75% of the wafer market after 2 US fabs closed when the US govt declined subsidies a few years back. With the risk of China invading Taiwan, the US passed the CHIPS act which is subsidizing the creation of new chip fabs in the US, most notably by Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron.
Intel plants in Ohio are on hold. Bidenomics
 
Two A.I. companies with A LOT of room to run are Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Palantir (PLTR).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - Develops robotic surgical products to improve minimally invasive procedures. AI and robots may perform safer and better surgeries soon.

Palantir (PLTR) - Company that specializes in big data analytics and uses A.I. to improve access to information and faster results. The biggest client is the U.S. government but its sheer power is now quickly drawing in Wall Street corporations as its next clients.
 
My deceased wife, died in the summer of 2008, bought 3 stocks in her Roth IRA. 2 went bankrupt. Taiwan semi-conductor was the third and it has gone up approximately 18 times in value. Didn't even know about this stock (now in my portfolio) until about 4 months ago. Her initial purchase was small, but it has led to a good hunk of change and a pleasant surprise for me.
 
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My deceased wife, died in the summer of 2008, bought 3 stocks in her Roth IRA. 2 went bankrupt. Taiwan semi-conductor was the third and it has gone up approximately 18 times in value. Didn't even know about this stock (now in my portfolio) until about 4 months ago. Her initial purchase was small, but it has led to a good hunk of change and a pleasant surprise for me.
That is why stocks are a good investment. They can only lose 100%. They can go up 1000s of %. If you have 9 losers and one amazon you still make money. Not very likely to even have 2 out of 3 go bankrupt.
 
More good news on small investments I have ignored and that have been doing well. About 2 or 3 years ago, on my then college son's recommendation bought small amounts of AMD (up 125%), GBTC up (238%) and OBTC (up 216%). Bought them mainly to watch them and learn, but haven't had time. Probably haven't looked at them for 18 months or 2 years. Pleasant surprise that I have a gain of over $4,000. Only 3 investments in this small portfolio.
 
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Yep. Investing in the stock market is much like playing blackjack at the casino.
Not true. It is a risk/reward proposition. Sure some of these stocks have the potential for an all or nothing result but an investment in a low fee index fund will generate returns of approximately 9% over the long term. This will not make you rich instantly but it will make you happy over your lifetime.
 
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My deceased wife, died in the summer of 2008, bought 3 stocks in her Roth IRA. 2 went bankrupt. Taiwan semi-conductor was the third and it has gone up approximately 18 times in value. Didn't even know about this stock (now in my portfolio) until about 4 months ago. Her initial purchase was small, but it has led to a good hunk of change and a pleasant surprise for me.
You should not have 3 stocks in your retirement account unless they were awards from blue chip companies that you worked for. Even then, stock investments in a retirement account should be diversified.
 
That is why stocks are a good investment. They can only lose 100%. They can go up 1000s of %. If you have 9 losers and one amazon you still make money. Not very likely to even have 2 out of 3 go bankrupt.
No doubt. Diversification counteracts the potential for loss. Plus stocks ordinarily keep pace with inflation. Also consider dividends. People who have been frightened out of investing in the stock market for whatever reason are missing out on one of the best and easiest ways to build wealth.
 
Worse yet on the housing front is that mortgage rates are back at 7%. Just a couple of years ago you had 2% - 3%. So it isn't just the property values that make it unaffordable, but these rates are making that same value home WAY MORE expensive.

For example, the mortgage payment for that 1000 sqft, $1.1M house with 20% down at 7% is $6280/month when just a couple of years ago at 2.5% it was $3902. That is a 61% increase in mortgage payment FOR THE EXACT SAME PRICED HOUSE!

Further, people aren't selling because why would you get out of a 2 or 3 % rate to sign onto a 7% rate? That's insane.
Sadly, some people still pay off low interest mortgages early because they don’t understand leverage or are risk averse to the extreme.
 
So they just released some blowout numbers and the stock went even further up. CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Last Call has been posting amazing stats:

The company market cap went up $250’Billion …. In just fifteen minutes! That 15 minute move is more than the total value of Netflix.

Nvidia is worth more than twice the value of the entire Italian stock market.

Homes in Santa Clara are incredibly over priced. A two bedroom home under 1,000 sq ft sold for $1.1 million. A 2000 sq ft home sold for over $3 million.

Crazy stuff
Gravity
 
Not true. It is a risk/reward proposition. Sure some of these stocks have the potential for an all or nothing result but an investment in a low fee index fund will generate returns of approximately 9% over the long term. This will not make you rich instantly but it will make you happy over your lifetime.
Exactly like playing blackjack in a casino if you are a card counter. Instead of a 9% return you get a 2% return on blackjack in the long run. Both the stock market and blackjack (with card counting) have a positive expected value and a high variance.
 
100%. I didn't come from money. I did see my parents go from living with my grandmother when I was a toddler to buying a half a double to buying a modest single-family home before I went off to college. I also happened to have a roommate in undergrad whose dad put $10k in a brokerage account and told him to learn how to invest.

When I graduated, I bought a book about investing and with my first decent money-making job at 22 years old, starting socking away about 50% of my pay into mutual funds and was maxing out my Roth contributions. I didn't have a 401k or matching when I started.

In 3 years, I took a little out and bought my first house, then a 2nd, then a 3rd, then a 4th, all in the next few years (I bought a book about making money in rental properties after the first house). I lived in 3 of those places for a couple of years and then would rent it out after I left. By my early 30s, I owned 4 properties and had a pretty nice little start on a retirement fund. We sacrificed some things that my peers were doing like frequent vacations, expensive new cars, and my time with self-managing the rental properties.

At some point, ETFs came along and so my savings started going there instead of mutual funds. I've done individual stocks as well but that's been hit or miss. I have one about to go completely under and a few down significantly while others have over doubled and over tripled since buying in the last few years. The individual stocks are mostly for fun, and the bulk of the portfolio is in real estate and ETFs, plus those early mutual funds.

Fast forward to my early 40s and the wife and I decided to retire early, comfortably, with multiple income streams. We still don't spend in excess but have loosened up considerably on that front. I suspect we continue to as several rental properties will be entirely paid off over the next few years in my early 50s. Those already nicely cash flow positive income streams will get a significant increase.

We're working to get to 8 figure net worth which we were well on the way before 2022. That was a bad year for nearly everyone and it's the first year in our adult lives that our net worth decreased. Actually, the inflation-adjusted (so relative to inflation or what you can actually buy with it) annualized (so the 1-year average) returns have been pretty bad the last 3 years. They are DOW 1.87%, NASDAQ -0.04%, and S&P 4.51%. I know it's been a much harder 3 years on most people though with cumulative inflation now about 20%. Many families are raiding their 401ks, running up massive credit card bills, going without including meals, or even a roof over their heads (foreclosures are up 8% this year and PA is 3rd highest in the nation with a 46% increase!). Some of this is what seems like permanently high inflation but also mortgage rates surged from 2.77% to 6.88% currently (was over 7 a few months ago). Average rents have increased by 6.49% annually over the last 3 years (well over double what it had been) and real wages (measured against inflation) were down 3.1% in this timeframe. It's just breaking a lot of families.

Anyway, I still remain positive in the long term and am convinced we'll be above 8 figure net worth before long. The 4 years prior to the last 3 were significantly better. We can get back to that eventually (it's not going to be immediate). Those 4 years the inflation-adjusted annual returns were DOW 12.03%, NASDAQ 32.53% (the highest 4 year in history), and S&P 14.78%. The best part is that this period was coupled with average annual inflation of only 1.875% and real wage growth of 8.7%. So we just need to get back to an economy that was very strong not that long ago.

My point while dropping a number of market conditions that I track for investments and broader economic health is that anyone can do what we did. Again, I didn't come from money. I'm not rich, at least in my mind, but we've done well for ourselves and our family. The formula is relatively easy to follow. Financial planners advise you to start putting away at minimum 10-13% of your pay starting in your early 20s and that should be enough to replace 80% of your income in retirement if you retire at 65. If you start later, you need to sock away a higher % (13-20% if you wait a decade to start investing). Someone who invests $5000 a year from age 25 to 35 and just lets it sit until age 65 will have almost 30% more saved at retirement age (assuming an 8% annual return) than someone who saves $5000 a year from age 35 to 65. The key is to start early, so impress this upon young people. You don't have to do the real estate if it sounds daunting or too much. Just start investing and the earlier the better.
THAT’S what I’m talking about!
 
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Exactly like playing blackjack in a casino if you are a card counter. Instead of a 9% return you get a 2% return on blackjack in the long run. Both the stock market and blackjack (with card counting) have a positive expected value and a high variance.
OK but counting cards is prohibited. Diversification in the stock market protects you against loss. My point is that over time you will build wealth with a properly diversified portfolio or more simply using index funds.
 
OK but counting cards is prohibited. Diversification in the stock market protects you against loss. My point is that over time you will build wealth with a properly diversified portfolio or more simply using index funds.
I totally agree. The best book I ever read on this is A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel. He explains in statistical terms why index funds are the best way to build wealth. Stock pickers (even mutual fund heads) usually do worse than just a diversified pot of index funds.

Card counting isn't illegal. Casinos try to catch people doing card counting and then prohibit them from playing blackjack at their casino. There is no penalty for card counting. In reality the casinos ignore card counters unless you are betting huge amounts of money each hand. I have been a card counter since the 1990s and have made almost exactly 2% on my bets over the past 30 years. The statistical "Law of Large Numbers" works! I am a small time player and have never gotten backed off by a casino. I haven't made a lot of money but I've had fun.
 
I totally agree. The best book I ever read on this is A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel. He explains in statistical terms why index funds are the best way to build wealth. Stock pickers (even mutual fund heads) usually do worse than just a diversified pot of index funds.

Card counting isn't illegal. Casinos try to catch people doing card counting and then prohibit them from playing blackjack at their casino. There is no penalty for card counting. In reality the casinos ignore card counters unless you are betting huge amounts of money each hand. I have been a card counter since the 1990s and have made almost exactly 2% on my bets over the past 30 years. The statistical "Law of Large Numbers" works! I am a small time player and have never gotten backed off by a casino. I haven't made a lot of money but I've had fun.
Yes, not illegal but prohibited by the casinos. If they can catch you. Jack Bogle, founder of Pennsylvania’s very own Vanguard Group, was the Father of Index Funds.
 
Yes, not illegal but prohibited by the casinos. If they can catch you. Jack Bogle, founder of Pennsylvania’s very own Vanguard Group, was the Father of Index Funds.
I think "prohibited" is too strong a word. I think "frowned upon" is more accurate. Actually, unless you are betting hundreds of dollars each hand and swinging your bets from say $100 per hand to say $800 per hand, most of the casinos don't really care if you are a card counter. They realize that card counting is a difficult skill to master and most people who try to do it screw up and don't get it right. Those people lose more money that if they were just playing normally because they are raising their bets at the wrong time and playing their hands improperly.
 
Two A.I. companies with A LOT of room to run are Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Palantir (PLTR).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - Develops robotic surgical products to improve minimally invasive procedures. AI and robots may perform safer and better surgeries soon.

Palantir (PLTR) - Company that specializes in big data analytics and uses A.I. to improve access to information and faster results. The biggest client is the U.S. government but its sheer power is now quickly drawing in Wall Street corporations as its next clients.
I'm very bullish in PLTR. They've yet to put it all together to take off, but I think they will do it. The stock is very cheap so a solid position can be picked up that will really grow if they launch.
 
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100%. I didn't come from money. I did see my parents go from living with my grandmother when I was a toddler to buying a half a double to buying a modest single-family home before I went off to college. I also happened to have a roommate in undergrad whose dad put $10k in a brokerage account and told him to learn how to invest.

When I graduated, I bought a book about investing and with my first decent money-making job at 22 years old, starting socking away about 50% of my pay into mutual funds and was maxing out my Roth contributions. I didn't have a 401k or matching when I started.

In 3 years, I took a little out and bought my first house, then a 2nd, then a 3rd, then a 4th, all in the next few years (I bought a book about making money in rental properties after the first house). I lived in 3 of those places for a couple of years and then would rent it out after I left. By my early 30s, I owned 4 properties and had a pretty nice little start on a retirement fund. We sacrificed some things that my peers were doing like frequent vacations, expensive new cars, and my time with self-managing the rental properties.

At some point, ETFs came along and so my savings started going there instead of mutual funds. I've done individual stocks as well but that's been hit or miss. I have one about to go completely under and a few down significantly while others have over doubled and over tripled since buying in the last few years. The individual stocks are mostly for fun, and the bulk of the portfolio is in real estate and ETFs, plus those early mutual funds.

Fast forward to my early 40s and the wife and I decided to retire early, comfortably, with multiple income streams. We still don't spend in excess but have loosened up considerably on that front. I suspect we continue to as several rental properties will be entirely paid off over the next few years in my early 50s. Those already nicely cash flow positive income streams will get a significant increase.

We're working to get to 8 figure net worth which we were well on the way before 2022. That was a bad year for nearly everyone and it's the first year in our adult lives that our net worth decreased. Actually, the inflation-adjusted (so relative to inflation or what you can actually buy with it) annualized (so the 1-year average) returns have been pretty bad the last 3 years. They are DOW 1.87%, NASDAQ -0.04%, and S&P 4.51%. I know it's been a much harder 3 years on most people though with cumulative inflation now about 20%. Many families are raiding their 401ks, running up massive credit card bills, going without including meals, or even a roof over their heads (foreclosures are up 8% this year and PA is 3rd highest in the nation with a 46% increase!). Some of this is what seems like permanently high inflation but also mortgage rates surged from 2.77% to 6.88% currently (was over 7 a few months ago). Average rents have increased by 6.49% annually over the last 3 years (well over double what it had been) and real wages (measured against inflation) were down 3.1% in this timeframe. It's just breaking a lot of families.

Anyway, I still remain positive in the long term and am convinced we'll be above 8 figure net worth before long. The 4 years prior to the last 3 were significantly better. We can get back to that eventually (it's not going to be immediate). Those 4 years the inflation-adjusted annual returns were DOW 12.03%, NASDAQ 32.53% (the highest 4 year in history), and S&P 14.78%. The best part is that this period was coupled with average annual inflation of only 1.875% and real wage growth of 8.7%. So we just need to get back to an economy that was very strong not that long ago.

My point while dropping a number of market conditions that I track for investments and broader economic health is that anyone can do what we did. Again, I didn't come from money. I'm not rich, at least in my mind, but we've done well for ourselves and our family. The formula is relatively easy to follow. Financial planners advise you to start putting away at minimum 10-13% of your pay starting in your early 20s and that should be enough to replace 80% of your income in retirement if you retire at 65. If you start later, you need to sock away a higher % (13-20% if you wait a decade to start investing). Someone who invests $5000 a year from age 25 to 35 and just lets it sit until age 65 will have almost 30% more saved at retirement age (assuming an 8% annual return) than someone who saves $5000 a year from age 35 to 65. The key is to start early, so impress this upon young people. You don't have to do the real estate if it sounds daunting or too much. Just start investing and the earlier the better.
First off, congrats on reaching escape velocity. You may not feel rich (liquidity) but your net worth in assets protects you from most anything the feds will do to F the average citizen.
For anyone that hasn't read the book, "rich dad, poor dad," Edward here is the Rich Dad in the story - investing and delaying gratification....Utilizing time and debt to grow an asset base that hedges inflation and takes advantage of metro area zoning boards refusing to approve additional housing units/density which is the primary driver of exploding real estate prices and rents.

Now, he has "retired" early and will continue to earn a solid and increasing, passive income. He may not be "rich" but he is pretty much set!

Congrats again Edward. Awesome stuff!
 
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