Tesla - exited short sale

bdgan

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2008
50,433
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You did not respond as below then?

I posted this response to you on August 31 2019.
"So when are you predicting they will run out of cash?"
You replied to my post.
"1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity."
We're done rumble. Your misrepresentations are childish.
 

blion72

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2010
8,423
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The lengths you Tesla lovers go to defend/support the company is amazing. I'm impressed withTesla's innovation and I hope they do well, but that doesn't make me blind to financial realities and competitive pressures.

When they had negative working capital and big quarterly losses I said that they're going to have to get profitable in a hurry and/or raise more money. The response I got was that profits were for companies that can't grow. Guess what? Tesla restructured their debt, issued new equity, and Musk told employees that layoffs and other cost cutting was necessary in order to make their products competitive with fossil fuels.

Now Tesla has positive working capital (barely) and they've stopped the losses. More than 100% of the profits reported over the past 3 quarters is due to the sale of ZEV credits. They've made a lot of progress but their PE ratio is still negative. The PE is over 300 based on forward looking earnings. The stock price is all based on huge profit growth that is not guaranteed.

I said that Tesla has a head start over their competitors and the China factory might turn out great for them, but neither they nor their competitors (which are coming) have proven and ability to sell EVs profitably without government programs. I'm just trying to present the facts and you guys respond like I told you there's no Santa Claus.

P.S. I always said that Tesla would continue in some form even if they ran out of cash. They might have been bought out or forced into a restructuring. I said that the intellectual property was too valuable to simply disappear.
first - I want to say that this forum has a lot of sharp people who have good backgrounds. the discussions bring great points on any topic whether Tesla or our OL play.

a common theme here is the Tesla success and EV market trend success are conjoined. it sounds like most of us see ICE to EV or ICE to hybrid to EV trends happening and some type of EV world is the future. some may think an all EV world is in 5 years and other 50 years, but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.

you could be an EV bull and a Tesla skeptic. that is possible. the discussions around Tesla have been more their operational capabilities and style vs the EV market. Tesla has adapted well to avoid collapse financially, but they are given a valuation that is not close to what they have done. much of this seems to be that Musk is involved. If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk? The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators. finally the market is still treating Tesla like a startup. What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?

who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit. let someone else try and design/build cars.

I made a little on the first short and got out before another tweet. I may try again, depending on how things go. no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market. they would need 50-100/share earnings to do that. that is alot of profitable cars.
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
16,553
3,034
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first - I want to say that this forum has a lot of sharp people who have good backgrounds. the discussions bring great points on any topic whether Tesla or our OL play.

a common theme here is the Tesla success and EV market trend success are conjoined. it sounds like most of us see ICE to EV or ICE to hybrid to EV trends happening and some type of EV world is the future. some may think an all EV world is in 5 years and other 50 years, but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.

you could be an EV bull and a Tesla skeptic. that is possible. the discussions around Tesla have been more their operational capabilities and style vs the EV market. Tesla has adapted well to avoid collapse financially, but they are given a valuation that is not close to what they have done. much of this seems to be that Musk is involved. If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk? The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators. finally the market is still treating Tesla like a startup. What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?

who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit. let someone else try and design/build cars.

I made a little on the first short and got out before another tweet. I may try again, depending on how things go. no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market. they would need 50-100/share earnings to do that. that is alot of profitable cars.
but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.

You should test drive a Tesla.

If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk?

I assume they would drive Telsa into the ground in a few years, so zero. Gotta keep that profitable fossil fuel vehicles rolling!

The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators.

This sounds a lot like Tesla FUD.

What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....

They came out with the all electric EV1 in 1996 in order to meet the strict California regulations that were going to be implemented. It was a revolutionary car. They were miles ahead of everyone else. But they lobbied to have the regulations watered down and collected all the EV1's at the end of their leases and crushed them.

The lesson is that you probably are not going to see any kind of revolutionary game changing new product from GM or any other big car company. They are pretty happy adding usb ports or extra cup holders to their existing line up.

would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?


Hard to say but if they would have keep developing the EV1 then maybe Musk decides that he doesn't even need to enter the auto market.

who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit.

Doubtful, because Musk already tried that. Telsa supplied batteries and power trains to Toyota(used in an electric RAV4) and Mercedes and Daimler in the past. Instead of rolling out a full line of Tesla powered cars they all just produced low volume models in just enough numbers to cover their regulatory compliance needs. So Musk decided to just make his own cars and take away as many customers from them as he could.

let someone else try and design/build cars.

Telsa cars appear to be competing quite well in segments they sell into.

no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market.

And yet here we are. The stock price is determined by the price that sellers and buyers agree to pay. It mattes not one whit if you think the current prices are not justified because there are buyers that do.

If you are looking for bargain basement then check out Ford. That stock has dropped from 14 to 6 in the last couple of years. That looks promising!
 
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blion72

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Jan 1, 2010
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but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.

You should test drive a Tesla.

If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk?

I assume they would drive Telsa into the ground in a few years, so zero. Gotta keep that profitable fossil fuel vehicles rolling!

The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators.

This sounds a lot like Tesla FUD.

What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....

They came out with the all electric EV1 in 1996 in order to meet the strict California regulations that were going to be implemented. It was a revolutionary car. They were miles ahead of everyone else. But they lobbied to have the regulations watered down and collected all the EV1's at the end of their leases and crushed them.

The lesson is that you probably are not going to see any kind of revolutionary game changing new product from GM or any other big car company. They are pretty happy adding usb ports or extra cup holders to their existing line up.

would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?


Hard to say but if they would have keep developing the EV1 then maybe Musk decides that he doesn't even need to enter the auto market.

who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit.

Doubtful, because Musk already tried that. Telsa supplied batteries and power trains to Toyota(used in an electric RAV4) and Mercedes and Daimler in the past. Instead of rolling out a full line of Tesla powered cars they all just produced low volume models in just enough numbers to cover their regulatory compliance needs. So Musk decided to just make his own cars and take away as customers from them as he could.

let someone else try and design/build cars.

Telsa cars appear to be competing quite well in segments they sell into.

no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market.

And yet here we are. The stock price is determined by the price that sellers and buyers agree to pay. It mattes not one whit if you think the current prices are not justified because there are buyers that do.

If you are looking for bargain basement then check out Ford. That stock has dropped from 14 to 6 in the last couple of years. That looks promising!
this is fun....you really did not understand what I was saying.

expensive golf carts is a commonplace expression/joke about EVs. and i have been in more than one Tesla.

there has been a lot of commentary in Crains Automotive re the valuation of some OEMs had they gone all in EV and just shutdown their ICE production.....overwhelmingly beat writers think the market would have punished them.

SEC and regulatory comment has been in WSJ. just saying it like it is...Musk has been given much more leeway given that Tesla is a public company. not passing judgement, stating a fact.

valuation comment is also widely stated - Barrons, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc. the "normal" logic to valuations does not hold for Tesla, as it didnt for Groupon, Twitter, FB, etc. you state the obvious that the market clears with buyers and sellers agreeing on a price based on expectations. that is not at all what i am saying. valuation experts have studied where the buy side is an almost cult like fascination with the company and frequently the founders - i.e. Zuck and FB. This is exactly how the VC market valuations occur, but rarely do you see that logic enter into the public markets = where there is more oxygen and rationalization. almost all of the firms that fit into this space have owners (cult) who feel the firm will own the market with first mover or winner take all assumptions. these buyers along with technical algos can drive a stock price to very high values that are hard to explain with cold hard facts/numbers. THIS is the area I love to invest on a short basis. this takes some balls and you have to have a way to exit in hours not days. normally the SEC rules which limit what a company can say publicly helps prevent sudden "news" over Twitter driving a spike - short loss.

I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
16,553
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this is fun....you really did not understand what I was saying.

expensive golf carts is a commonplace expression/joke about EVs. and i have been in more than one Tesla.

there has been a lot of commentary in Crains Automotive re the valuation of some OEMs had they gone all in EV and just shutdown their ICE production.....overwhelmingly beat writers think the market would have punished them.

SEC and regulatory comment has been in WSJ. just saying it like it is...Musk has been given much more leeway given that Tesla is a public company. not passing judgement, stating a fact.

valuation comment is also widely stated - Barrons, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc. the "normal" logic to valuations does not hold for Tesla, as it didnt for Groupon, Twitter, FB, etc. you state the obvious that the market clears with buyers and sellers agreeing on a price based on expectations. that is not at all what i am saying. valuation experts have studied where the buy side is an almost cult like fascination with the company and frequently the founders - i.e. Zuck and FB. This is exactly how the VC market valuations occur, but rarely do you see that logic enter into the public markets = where there is more oxygen and rationalization. almost all of the firms that fit into this space have owners (cult) who feel the firm will own the market with first mover or winner take all assumptions. these buyers along with technical algos can drive a stock price to very high values that are hard to explain with cold hard facts/numbers. THIS is the area I love to invest on a short basis. this takes some balls and you have to have a way to exit in hours not days. normally the SEC rules which limit what a company can say publicly helps prevent sudden "news" over Twitter driving a spike - short loss.

I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.

At the current price of 1,200 I'm surprised.
 
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bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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No logic supports current valuation
The logic that supports a $1,200 share price is that Tesla will be making annual profits of $10 billion as it matures in the several years. That's not my prediction. It just represents a market multiple of 24x.
 

cjrugger

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Sep 30, 2002
5,426
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The logic that supports a $1,200 share price is that Tesla will be making annual profits of $10 billion as it matures in the several years. That's not my prediction. It just represents a market multiple of 24x.
Yeah I know. Those are blion’s quotes, not mine
 

cjrugger

Well-Known Member
Sep 30, 2002
5,426
3,802
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this is fun....you really did not understand what I was saying.

expensive golf carts is a commonplace expression/joke about EVs. and i have been in more than one Tesla.

there has been a lot of commentary in Crains Automotive re the valuation of some OEMs had they gone all in EV and just shutdown their ICE production.....overwhelmingly beat writers think the market would have punished them.

SEC and regulatory comment has been in WSJ. just saying it like it is...Musk has been given much more leeway given that Tesla is a public company. not passing judgement, stating a fact.

valuation comment is also widely stated - Barrons, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc. the "normal" logic to valuations does not hold for Tesla, as it didnt for Groupon, Twitter, FB, etc. you state the obvious that the market clears with buyers and sellers agreeing on a price based on expectations. that is not at all what i am saying. valuation experts have studied where the buy side is an almost cult like fascination with the company and frequently the founders - i.e. Zuck and FB. This is exactly how the VC market valuations occur, but rarely do you see that logic enter into the public markets = where there is more oxygen and rationalization. almost all of the firms that fit into this space have owners (cult) who feel the firm will own the market with first mover or winner take all assumptions. these buyers along with technical algos can drive a stock price to very high values that are hard to explain with cold hard facts/numbers. THIS is the area I love to invest on a short basis. this takes some balls and you have to have a way to exit in hours not days. normally the SEC rules which limit what a company can say publicly helps prevent sudden "news" over Twitter driving a spike - short loss.

I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
What does the system say about Tesla at $1740?
 
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blion72

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Jan 1, 2010
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What does the system say about Tesla at $1740?
what is the value of the entire automotive market? that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.

does anyone see the recent moves on Tesla in any way related to the actual bottom line of the business?

as i said, you don't short companies that are having momentum moves. I am focused on others - there are still some good ones.
 

cjrugger

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Sep 30, 2002
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what is the value of the entire automotive market? that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.

does anyone see the recent moves on Tesla in any way related to the actual bottom line of the business?

as i said, you don't short companies that are having momentum moves. I am focused on others - there are still some good ones.
You said literally the opposite actually

valuation experts have studied where the buy side is an almost cult like fascination with the company and frequently the founders - i.e. Zuck and FB. This is exactly how the VC market valuations occur, but rarely do you see that logic enter into the public markets = where there is more oxygen and rationalization. almost all of the firms that fit into this space have owners (cult) who feel the firm will own the market with first mover or winner take all assumptions. these buyers along with technical algos can drive a stock price to very high values that are hard to explain with cold hard facts/numbers. THIS is the area I love to invest on a short basis. this takes some balls and you have to have a way to exit in hours not days. normally the SEC rules which limit what a company can say publicly helps prevent sudden "news" over Twitter driving a spike - short loss.

I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
 

blion72

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2010
8,423
1,679
1
You said literally the opposite actually
not sure what you think I said that is opposite. I am not involved with this as a short or long position.

commenting on the valuation is not taking a position on either side. there were multiple analysts talking about this today on both Bloomberg and Fox Bus. I did not hear one say that the Tesla valuation had anything to do with the actual business. Just a lot of discussion about their valuation might put them into the S&P pool - so then ETF's wind up having to buy them to mimic market moves - so you have anticipation buys. also still some short squeeze not over according to guy on Bloomberg. not a person said anything about the business driving the valuation moves. that is exactly what you steer clear of in shorts. market can be very technical and not fundamentals oriented for those stocks.....I do not short when it becomes so technical that it totally drives out fundamentals and you cannot depend on the news on results to drive price. someone in this chain suggested that Tesla could make $10B net/year and that would justify today's valuation. how many vehicles would they need to make at the current profit/car to hit that profit?

I just did very well with an Uber short (cleared $13 per share on a $27 exit). Uber was a stock with a cult following, but has lost some of that - so safe to go back in the water.
 

mn78psu83

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Nov 10, 2011
23,495
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My friend and I were laughing about TSLA earlier today when the action was hot. He said, "Screw it, I'm shorting it." He did. It was up around $120.00 at the time. I have a call in to him to see if he covered before the close. I know I would have.

Correction: It was up around $140.00 when he shorted. He covered. Good for him.
 
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cjrugger

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Sep 30, 2002
5,426
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not sure what you think I said that is opposite. I am not involved with this as a short or long position.

commenting on the valuation is not taking a position on either side. there were multiple analysts talking about this today on both Bloomberg and Fox Bus. I did not hear one say that the Tesla valuation had anything to do with the actual business. Just a lot of discussion about their valuation might put them into the S&P pool - so then ETF's wind up having to buy them to mimic market moves - so you have anticipation buys. also still some short squeeze not over according to guy on Bloomberg. not a person said anything about the business driving the valuation moves. that is exactly what you steer clear of in shorts. market can be very technical and not fundamentals oriented for those stocks.....I do not short when it becomes so technical that it totally drives out fundamentals and you cannot depend on the news on results to drive price. someone in this chain suggested that Tesla could make $10B net/year and that would justify today's valuation. how many vehicles would they need to make at the current profit/car to hit that profit?

I just did very well with an Uber short (cleared $13 per share on a $27 exit). Uber was a stock with a cult following, but has lost some of that - so safe to go back in the water.
Sure chief. Do us a favor, tell us when you put a short on next time instead of just showing up here to tell us about how much money you made after it’s over. You remind me of a lot of bad sports gamblers I know
 
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rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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what is the value of the entire automotive market? that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.

does anyone see the recent moves on Tesla in any way related to the actual bottom line of the business?

as i said, you don't short companies that are having momentum moves. I am focused on others - there are still some good ones.
that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.

Those luxury cars are a small part of the action but they generate 50% of the profits.
 

cjrugger

Well-Known Member
Sep 30, 2002
5,426
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How long do you all think it will take for Tesla to get back to 2000? 1 week? 2 weeks maybe?
 

YogiMan71

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Gold Member
Oct 20, 2001
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Colorado
I haven’t been in Tesla but am considering taking some profit and playing with house money with ATVI, NVDA, CRWD, SWKS. Holding on to PANW and AAPL.
 

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