Yes, a minor bowl is at this point a realistic expectation. Is winning out possible? Sure. It's also possible that Alabama will lose three games too. Neither is likely.
The biggest hurdle is Ann Arbor. Even if we believe the teams are of comparable strength, this year the B1G isn't going to allow a fair fight. Michigan will get the calls, or we will have to play an overly clean game relative to the other side. Either way, it's a huge disadvantage. It's like playing against more than 11 on the other side.
When I see B1G officials screw over OSU or Michigan a few times while they're still in the running then I'll believe certain events (including this year) were just incompetence and we have true equity in the league. Until then, seeing is believing.