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Roar's 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships Seeding Review

RoarLions1

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeds - 2023

I see two challenges this season, maybe three if one includes the injury bug. Once again we’re at eight Big Ten duals for each team, so the idea of having plenty of data for every wrestler can be thrown out the window. 14 teams means 13 potential opponents, and we’re at eight, or barely 60% of the possible iterations. Another factor is the trend to sit wrestlers, even when not injured, to give the starter a rest or a back-up some action, whichever way one chooses to look at it. It seems this is happening more than ever. One could argue that a Brooks or Bravo-Young sitting has no impact as in everyone's mind that would result in a PSU win and an opponent loss. But make no mistake – flipping a loss into a win (IF the PSU back-up loses) does have an impact on wins/losses and WILL influence the committee.

My plan this year is a bit different than year’s past. My seeds won’t go all the way to 14. Some of that reasoning is provided in the first paragraph. My seeds will go AT LEAST to #9, which will cover the 8/9 bout in the first round, and more at times. For example, I believe 125 warrants going to #10. Here goes – ENJOY!!
 
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125
#1 Spencer Lee (IOWA)
#2 Liam Cronin (NEB)
#3 Matt Ramos (PUR)
#4 Eric Barnett (WIS)
#5 Patrick McKee (MINN)
#6 Michael DeAugustino (NU)
#7 Malik Heinselman (tOSU)
#8 Braxton Brown (MD)
#9 Dean Peterson (RUT)
#10 Jack Medley (MICH)

Overall this weight class was easy to seed. A couple places where two guys could be flipped, which I’ll note, but generally 125 was not too difficult.

An easy #1, Spencer Lee (IOWA) beat all comers, including my #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 seeds.

#2 Liam Cronin (NEB) and #3 Matt Ramos (PUR) are toss-ups and might be flipped by the conference. Both lost only to Spencer Lee. Both beat Eric Barnett (WIS), Pat McKee (MINN) and Dean Peterson (RUT), but Cronin has wins vs Mike DeAugustino (NU) and Malik Heinselman (tOSU), while Ramos beat Braxton Brown (MD). By a nose, only because he has more great wins, is Cronin over Ramos. It’s close, and again a B1G flip is possible, but my logic is solid.

My #4 is Barnett after winning HTH vs #5 McKee in Wisconsin’s final regular season dual. McKee has no great wins, but then no one behind him does either except Jack Medley’s (MICH) win vs Barnett, but Medley’s fate is sealed with some of his losses (see below) and he falls down the pecking order. I’ll note that Barnett does have good wins vs DeAugustino and Dean Peterson (RUT), but has three losses (other than one to Medley) to the top three seeds, while McKee’s losses are to the top three plus Barnett. I will mention here that McKee is an amazing 12-1 in the wrestleback bracket the past two years at NCAA’s, finishing 3rd and 5th.

#6 DeAugustino lost HTH to Barnett, and fits nicely at the 6-seed, as he also has a HTH WIN vs #7 Malik Heinselman (tOSU). DeAugustino didn’t go in NU’s final dual vs Purdue, so he missed an opportunity to wrestle Ramos. Winning or losing that bout would not have affected his seed.

Freshman #8 Braxton Brown (MD) is having a solid season, going 6-1 in conference; unfortunately none of his wins were against any of my top-seven, meaning all six wins were against subs or guys ranked below him. The loss to #3 Ramos doesn’t hurt him. He does have a decent win HTH against #9 Dean Peterson (also a freshman), hence the higher seed. Peterson also has no great wins, but did beat #10 Medley HTH twice (dual & tournament).

Medley has a fabulous 6-point win vs my #4 seed Barnett, but the two losses to Peterson, plus a loss to Heinselman sealed his fate. A win in the first round for any of the guys seeded 11-14 would be a shocker at 125. Stranger things have happened, but the data strongly suggests they’ll be moving to wrestlebacks.

125 is a solid weight class for the Big Ten. Spencer Lee is such a dominant wrestler; it’s easy to use that level change to the next best guy as evidence, or an excuse, to say it is weak. I disagree. The conference has plenty of talent here, and on the national scene we see consensus of another six (besides Lee) guys in the top ten plus three others top 20. The conference should get 10 qualification spots.
 
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133
#1 Roman Bravo-Young (PSU)
#2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU)
#3 Lucas Byrd (ILL)
#4 Chris Cannon (NU)
#5 Dylan Ragusin (MICH)
#6 Brody Teske (IOWA)
#7 Tony Nagao (MINN)
#8 Rayvon Foley (MSU)
#9 Joe Heilmann (RUT)
#10 Henry Porter (IND)

My second weight class also has a clear #1. Roman Bravo-Young (PSU) has defeated my #2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU), #5 Dylan Ragusin (MICH), #6 Brody Teske (IOWA) and #8 RayVon Foley (MSU), and is the only undefeated wrestler at 133.

#2 Mendez only lost to RBY and has a plethora of wins against the best-of-the-rest in this weight class including HTH vs #3 Lucas Byrd (ILL) at the Michigan State Open. That HTH win, even though not in conference duals, gives the young Buckeye the higher seed.

Byrd is the easy #3, only losing to Mendez, and with good wins HTH against #4 Chris Cannon and #8 Rayvon Foley (MSU) among his 9 Big Ten wins, including tournament action. Mendez vs Byrd in the semis will be a fabulous bout assuming it happens.

My #4 is Chris Cannon (NU). Some will place Ragusin here, but I select Cannon. He has slightly better wins, but that’s not always the fault of the wrestler, and in this case it is more of a scheduling thing. Another bit of reasoning is the loss side of the equation -- Ragusin lost to Foley, among his three losses (the others were to Bravo-Young and Mendez), while Cannon has no mediocre-to-bad losses (he did lose to Mendez and Byrd).

Here’s where 133 is a mess. Ragusin losing to Foley put a higher seed for the Wolverine in jeopardy. Teske has no great wins, only beating guys that will be seeded 9-14 at B1G’s, although he only has one loss, to Bravo-Young. Nagao has seen limited action, wrestling in four Big Ten duals. He lost to Cannon, but beat Foley and sat out the Iowa dual. Joe Heilmann (RUT) beat Foley and #10 Henry Porter (IND), and only has good losses (if there is such a thing), to four of my five top seeds. I’ve unscrambled this mess thus;
  • #5 Ragusin in a close call with my #6 Teske. Honestly, this could be switched but I went with the guy with the tougher schedule, Teske missing the duals against Cannon and Byrd.
  • #6 Teske gets the nod over #7 Nagao, after Nagao sat for the Iowa vs Minnesota dual, which would have gone a long way towards deciding his seed. Again, I’ll go with the guy that wrestled.
  • #8 Foley, because of the HTH loss to #7 Nagao, a great win vs Ragusin, but also a loss to Heilmann. Foley is an enigma.
  • #9 Heilmann, as noted before he has a win against Foley (which could move him ahead of Foley, but I really like the Foley win against Ragusin), also has a HTH win against #10 Henry Porter.
That’s it. 133, at least near the top of the conference on paper, only has one guy in the top-8 nationally, making it among the weakest Big Ten weight classes. All is not lost for those looking for good action at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships however as the conference is well represented in the 9-20 range with eight wrestlers, and two others (Porter & Lamont) in the top-30. The Big Ten could get as many as 11 allocation spots if Teske gets to 8 bouts (he’s currently at 7 with no duals remaining for Iowa), and will surely get at least 9 qualifier slots. The likes of Fix, Arujau, McGee, McGonagle, Phillippi, Latona, and Colaiocco are 2 thru 8 nationally, though I do see Mendez and Byrd with a better than 50% shot at breaking into that group and becoming an All-American. Ragusin and Cannon have outside shots too.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
133
#1 Roman Bravo-Young (PSU)
#2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU)
#3 Lucas Byrd (ILL)
#4 Chris Cannon (NU)
#5 Dylan Ragusin (MICH)
#6 Brody Teske (IOWA)
#7 Tony Nagao (MINN)
#8 Rayvon Foley (MSU)
#9 Joe Heilmann (RUT)
#10 Henry Porter (IND)

My second weight class also has a clear #1. Roman Bravo-Young (PSU) has defeated my #2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU), #5 Dylan Ragusin (MICH), #6 Brody Teske (IOWA) and #8 RayVon Foley (MSU), and is the only undefeated wrestler at 133.

#2 Mendez only lost to RBY and has a plethora of wins against the best-of-the-rest in this weight class including HTH vs #3 Lucas Byrd (ILL) at the Michigan State Open. That HTH win, even though not in conference duals, gives the young Buckeye the higher seed.

Byrd is the easy #3, only losing to Mendez, and with good wins HTH against #4 Chris Cannon and #8 Rayvon Foley (MSU) among his 9 Big Ten wins, including tournament action. Mendez vs Byrd in the semis will be a fabulous bout assuming it happens.

My #4 is Chris Cannon (NU). Some will place Ragusin here, but I select Cannon. He has slightly better wins, but that’s not always the fault of the wrestler, and in this case it is more of a scheduling thing. Another bit of reasoning is the loss side of the equation -- Ragusin lost to Foley, among his three losses (the others were to Bravo-Young and Mendez), while Cannon has no mediocre-to-bad losses (he did lose to Mendez and Byrd).

Here’s where 133 is a mess. Ragusin losing to Foley put a higher seed for the Wolverine in jeopardy. Teske has no great wins, only beating guys that will be seeded 9-14 at B1G’s, although he only has one loss, to Bravo-Young. Nagao has seen limited action, wrestling in four Big Ten duals. He lost to Cannon, but beat Foley and sat out the Iowa dual. Joe Heilmann (RUT) beat Foley and #10 Henry Porter (IND), and only has good losses (if there is such a thing), to four of my five top seeds. I’ve unscrambled this mess thus;
  • #5 Ragusin in a close call with my #6 Teske. Honestly, this could be switched but I went with the guy with the tougher schedule, Teske missing the duals against Cannon and Byrd.
  • #6 Teske gets the nod over #7 Nagao, after Nagao sat for the Iowa vs Minnesota dual, which would have gone a long way towards deciding his seed. Again, I’ll go with the guy that wrestled.
  • #8 Foley, because of the HTH loss to #7 Nagao, a great win vs Ragusin, but also a loss to Heilmann. Foley is an enigma.
  • #9 Heilmann, as noted before he has a win against Foley (which could move him ahead of Foley, but I really like the Foley win against Ragusin), also has a HTH win against #10 Henry Porter.
That’s it. 133, at least near the top of the conference on paper, only has one guy in the top-8 nationally, making it among the weakest Big Ten weight classes. All is not lost for those looking for good action at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships however as the conference is well represented in the 9-20 range with eight wrestlers, and two others (Porter & Lamont) in the top-30. The Big Ten could get as many as 11 allocation spots if Teske gets to 8 bouts (he’s currently at 7 with no duals remaining for Iowa), and will surely get at least 9 qualifier slots. The likes of Fix, Arujau, McGee, McGonagle, Phillippi, Latona, and Colaiocco are 2 thru 8 nationally, though I do see Mendez and Byrd with a better than 50% shot at breaking into that group and becoming an All-American. Ragusin and Cannon have outside shots too.
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Iowa has a dual left with Okie State next Sunday.
 
RoarLions1 said:
Wrote it the way I did to see who would respond. You win.
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Oh, that’s why HR was making fun of my alma mater Clarion, this is why National duals so late in season are bad, I hope all 20 wrestlers come out of that match healthy. Great matchup, Wrong time IMO
 
141
#1 Real Woods (IOWA)
#2 Brock Hardy (NEB)
#3 Beau Bartlett (PSU)
#4 Danny Pucino (ILL)
#5 Frankie Tal-Shahar (NU)
#6 Jake Bergeland (MINN)
#7 Parker Filius (PUR)
#8 Joey Olivieri (RUT)
#9 Dylan D’Emilio (tOSU)
#10 Joseph Zargo (WIS)
#10 Cole Mattin (MICH)

For the 3rd weight class in a row, we have one undefeated Big Ten wrestler in the conference. #1 Real Woods (IOWA) is the second Iowa #1 seed so far, although it will be their last. Woods beat #2 Brock Hardy (NEB), #3 Beau Bartlett (PSU), and #5 Frankie Tal-Shahar (NU), making this an easy choice. Both Hardy and Bartlett only lost to Woods, with Hardy getting the nod for the higher seed due to better wins, both going 7-1 in conference duals. Hardy beat #4 Danny Pucino (ILL), #5 Tal-Shahar (NU), and #6 Jake Bergeland (MINN). Bartlett’s best win is against #8 Joey Olivieri (RUT). No fault to Bartlett, or Hardy for that matter, as both wrestled everyone in front of them. The schedule just works out this way sometimes. Doesn’t matter, as they are on the same side of the bracket and on paper will meet in the semifinals.

Here is where we hit our first merry-go-round, and the rejection of the transitive law in wrestling. Tal-Shahar beat Bergeland, Bergeland beat Pucino, and Pucino beat Tal-Shahar, so “A>B, B>C, therefore A>C” doesn’t work well in the world of sports. First thing I did was move Bergeland to #6. Of the three, he has a loss to Parker Filius (PUR), while Pucino and Tal-Shahar only have losses to guys in front of them. It’s not a horrible loss, but does break-up a pretty close bunching. Once that move is made, the #4 Pucino HTH win over #5 Tal-Shahar has enough importance to place them in the order I did. Note here that Tal-Shahar’s national ranking is a good five or six places in front of either Pucino or Bergeland. DOESN’T MATTER, only conference bouts matter! Remember that, Big Ten.

Filius picks up my #7 seed, mostly on the strength of the Bergeland win, though he does have a loss to Joe Zargo (WIS). The Zargo loss prevented Filius from being in the mix with the three wrestlers discussed in the last paragraph. Note that Filius also has victories against Schriever (IOWA) and D'Emilio (at Cliff Keen).

#8 Joey Olivieri (RUT) might appear headed to a higher seed with a 5-2 conference mark. Problem is his wins – against Mattin, Hamden, D’Emilio, Rooks and Miller, all guys seeded below him. Still, Olivieri could be a force at Big Ten’s. The HTH loss to Olivieri relegates D’Emilio to my #9 seed. Like Olivieri, he has no great wins. Some combination of Zargo and Cole Mattin (MICH) are the #10 and #11 seeds.

141 is a strong Big Ten weight class. I can see an easy 10 qualifier allocations when those number some out on or the day before Friday, February 24.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Once that move is made, the #4 Pucino HTH win over #5 Tal-Shahar has enough importance to place them in the order I did. Note here that Tal-Shahar’s national ranking is a good five or six places in front of either Pucino or Bergeland. DOESN’T MATTER, only conference bouts matter! Remember that, Big Ten.
Click to expand...
4 vs 5 is a QF matchup anyway, so that seeding decision also has little practical importance.
 
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149
#1 Sammy Sasso (tOSU)
#2 Austin Gomez (WIS)
#3 Yahya Thomas (NU)
#4 Max Murin (IOWA)
#5 Shayne Van Ness (PSU)
#6 Michael Blockus (MINN)
#7 Graham Rooks (IND)
#8 Ethan Miller (MD)
#9 Chance Lamar (MICH)

149 is the 4th consecutive weight class with a single, lone undefeated wrestler. That guy is #1 Sammy Sasso (tOSU), but this story has a twist. Austin Gomez (WIS) owns a win this year against Sasso, but it was in the uncountable-by-NCAA-rule All-Star Classic. In another twist, this one unfortunate, Gomez suffered an injury 1/27 against Yahya Thomas (NU), and the injury default does count as a loss. I do wonder what the conference would have done if both Sasso and Gomez were undefeated. Last year, similar situation, Sasso got the nod.

Despite the HTH loss to Thomas, I’m making it #2 Gomez, followed by #3 Thomas. An injury default doesn’t carry the same weight, and Gomez has earned the consideration. Same side of the bracket, so I’m solid with this but could live with a flip. #3 Thomas lost twice this season to Sasso, early in the Cliff Keen and in SV at a recent dual for his only two losses on the season.

Murin is a solid #4, losing only to Gomez and Thomas HTH, while beating Shayne Van Ness (PSU) and Michael Blockus (MINN).

I’m inserting #5 Shayne Van Ness (PSU) here, though with 3 losses to guys above him (Murin, Gomez, Sasso) and no real great wins, it’s by default that he gets the spot – no one else has a better resume, frankly. Again, no one stands out next, Blockus having similar results to Van Ness, but an added loss to Dayne Morton (NEB).

Morton beat Blockus HTH earlier in the Big Ten season, but then lost four of his last five, including a bad loss to 2-6 Anthony White (RUT). Despite the HTH loss, it will be #6 Blockus in my rankings.

Honestly, it is a bit of a cluster after that. Seed #7, all the way to #14 is a mess at 149. I found one bout that provides an ounce of separation, so I’m going #7 Graham Rooks (IND). His victory against Ethan Miller (MD) is THE best win from among the eight remaining-to-be-seeded guys, and while overall it’s not very impressive, Rooks did have a 5-3 conference mark, beating up on guys seeded below him.

Next I’m going with #8 Miller (MD). His 3-4 conference mark is unimpressive on the win side of the ledger, but he has no bad losses. For #9 I’ll go Chance Lamer (MICH) despite a 1-2 conference record. Lamer missed four conference duals between January 15 and February 10, then missed the Wolverines final dual of the season. It’s obvious there’s an injury here, so I don’t even know if he’ll wrestle at Big Ten’s. His losses to Gomez and Murin don't hurt him.

149 is a bit bizarre. Top heavy with the likes of Sasso, Gomez, Thomas and Murin on the national scene, then a couple solid guys in Van Ness and Blockus, this weight class falls off dramatically for the Big Ten. Without applying the criteria, meaning I’ll make an educated guess, 149 might only get seven or so allocation slots.
 
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Roar, thanks as always. Not sure I'm following the Murin comment re matches. He has a coaches ranking and will earn an allocation. Right now, Big 10 has 8 in top 25 plus Rooks at 25. 7 in top 22 of the RPI. Neither Gomez nor Lamer had enough to qualify for RPI but both have high enough winning percentages. It looks like at least 8 qualifying spots to me.
 
Roar as always this is A+

However I am going to try and boycott this or at least resist the urge to read until after the next dual. This next month is a torture test of inactivity for the team and your analysis helps keep us sane. I just think it is 2 weeks too early.
 
Any idea how bad Gomez is hurt? It looked really bad when it happened
 
RoarLions1 said:
I do wonder what the conference would have done if both Sasso and Gomez were undefeated. Last year, similar situation, Sasso got the nod.
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I don't wonder very much. If both were undefeated in conference, dominating Yianni seems like an obvious tiebreaker.

Then again, Big Ten.
 
Fink said:
Roar, thanks as always. Not sure I'm following the Murin comment re matches. He has a coaches ranking and will earn an allocation. Right now, Big 10 has 8 in top 25 plus Rooks at 25. 7 in top 22 of the RPI. Neither Gomez nor Lamer had enough to qualify for RPI but both have high enough winning percentages. It looks like at least 8 qualifying spots to me.
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Got my Murin's and Teske's mixed up. Oops...both Iowa though.
 
Behind
El-Jefe said:
Based on what? Robb and Haines are both undefeated in the conference. Everybody else has at least 2 losses.

EDIT: Except Carr, who's 3-0 in conference and 4-0 overall. Carr isn't getting a top 2 seed with that few matches.
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Technically Saldate is undefeated in conference, though he has 2 losses to conference foes - Gilcher from Indiana at the Reno TOC(he beat him at the dual.though) and Robb at the Navy Classic. Not sure how they go about this but could see Haines at 3 because Haines did not wrestle Saldate at the dual.
 
rmg78 said:
Technically Saldate is undefeated in conference, though he has 2 losses to conference foes - Gilcher from Indiana at the Reno TOC(he beat him at the dual.though) and Robb at the Navy Classic. Not sure how they go about this but could see Haines at 3 because Haines did not wrestle Saldate at the dual.
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Technically Saldate is not undefeated in conference because of those 2 losses. They're not duals, but since the conference allows facing max 62% (8/13) of opponents in duals, it makes no sense to restrict conference record to duals.

Even if it were restricted to duals: Saldate and Haines would be undefeated in duals, and Saldate losing those 2 matches would be a good tiebreaker.
 
157
#1 Peyton Robb (NEB)
#2 Levi Haines (PSU)
#3 Kendall Coleman (PUR)
#4 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#5 Mike Carr (ILL)
#6 Cobe Siebrecht (IOWA)
#7 Will Lewan (MICH)
#8 Trevor Chumbley (NU)
#9 Garrett Model (WIS)
#10 Derek Gilcher (IND)
#11 Paddy Gallagher (tOSU)

The run of consecutive weight classes with a single undefeated wrestler at the top ends here. 157 actually has three; #1 Peyton Robb (NEB), #2 Levi Haines (PSU), and Mike Carr (ILL). Robb deserves the top seed. He has been the top dog all season and has beaten everyone in front of him, including four in the top-8 if one counts tournaments. Coleman, Saldate, Siebrecht and Chumbley are among those Robb has beaten. Haines gets the #2 seed, also winning all of his Big Ten bouts, while #3 Kendall Coleman (PUR) has two Big Ten losses, to Robb at the Cliff Keen and an early loss to Garrett Model (WIS). Haines’ best win is Will Lewan (MICH), and he beat Model by Major Decision. The Coleman loss to Model clearly separates him and Haines, though they are on the same side of the bracket. It does matter for first round byes, as the #2 seed gets one, and the #3 seed does not. Bigger picture, the #2 seed misses out on a chance for bonus points while the #3 seed gets that chance. Still, one less bout in a brutal tournament isn’t a bad thing when looking at the bigger picture.

#4 Chase Saldate (MSU) is an easy #4. He has a HTH win vs #6 Will Lewan (MICH) and is 8-0 in Big Ten duals. Normally this would get a higher seed, but he also has two tournament losses; to Derek Gilcher (IND) at Reno and Robb at the Navy Classic. The Robb loss doesn’t hurt, and the Gilcher loss was avenged when Saldate beat him in a conference dual. Still, the Gilcher tournament loss moves him behind Coleman.

My #5 is Mike Carr (ILL). He’s undefeated at 3-0 in conference, with one of those wins over my #6 Cobe Siebrecht. Carr’s first bout of the season was on January 6, and he’s missed several duals since. I decided not to penalize him entirely, and consider a 6 seed here a bit of compromise - basically for an undefeated guy with few bouts. The young man missed all of last season due to injury and decided late to wrestle in 2023. Tough situation, and by all appearances he’s limiting action, saving his energies for the post-season. The win over Siebrecht carries more weight, to me, than Carr’s limited action.

#6 Siebrecht had a solid season, going 4-3 and only losing to the three undefeated guys in the Big Ten. He has a good win HTH vs my #7 Will Lewan, hence the higher seed. Lewan, at 5-3 in conference, only has losses to guys in front of him, and some moderately good wins vs Gilcher and Model.

Next, it is real close between Derek Gilcher, Trevor Chumbley (NU), and Garrett Model (WIS). Even Paddy Gallagher (tOSU) enters the fray. Gilcher has a very good win against Saldate at Reno (but losing to Saldate at a dual), but he also has losses to Brayton Lee (MINN) and Model at Midlands. The Lee loss wouldn’t be a big deal as Lee is a terrific talent, but a serious elbow injury last season – ending his season – is preventing his return to form and this is Lee’s only Big Ten win this season. Chumbley is similar, with wins vs Model (at Midland’s), and Gallagher (at the Michigan State Open) while also losing to Gallagher at the dual. In this pod of four wrestlers, counting tournament action, Chumbley is 2-1, Model is 1-1, Gilcher is 1-1 and Gallagher is 1-2, which is the order I’m going with -- #8 Chumbley, #9 Model, #10 Gilcher and #11 Gallagher. The Model HTH win over Gilcher at Midlands gives him the higher seed.

157 is another solid weight class for the Big Ten Conference. With 11 wrestlers in the top-20 plus a little bit, I’m thinking 10 or 11 qualifier allocation spots. Not sure how Brayton Lee will be handled. At 4-7, he took #2 nationally, Jared Franek, to the tiebreaker, and he has the solid win vs Gilcher in the Big Ten. Overall, he has no real bad losses, but his win %, which also affects his RPI may be a problem. He’ll be a bubble guy.
 
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165
#1 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#2 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#3 Patrick Kennedy (IOWA)
#4 Alex Facundo (PSU)
#5 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#6 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#7 Maxx Mayfield (NU)
#8 Cael Carlson (MINN)
#9 Danny Braunagel (ILL)

165 is the first Big Ten weight class without an undefeated wrestler. Four wrestlers each have one loss; Cameron Amine (MICH) to Alex Facundo (PSU), Facundo to Patrick Kennedy (IOWA), Kennedy to Dean Hamiti (WIS) and Hamiti to Amine. Little separates those four on paper, so I dove into the details. Amine also beat Carson Kharchla (tOSU) by FALL (Facundo also beat Kharchla, 4-1), and his victory over Hamiti passes the eye test as the best among the four guys noted. The Facundo tie-breaker win against Amine gets him into the conversation, but not wrestling Hamiti in the dual (legitimately missed as he was “dinged up”) AND the Kennedy loss, relegate the Penn State freshman to my #4 seed. #2 Hamiti winning HTH vs #3 Kennedy earns Hamiti the higher seed.

#5 Kharchla gets the nod over #6 Caleb Fish (MSU) with a HTH win over the Spartan. Both guys only have losses to guys seeded higher, so their seeds are solid.

Next seeds consist of some combination of Danny Braunagel (ILL), Cael Carlson (MINN) and Maxx Mayfield (NU). Braunagel has a loss to Carlson, while Carlson only went 2-2 in conference in limited action. Mayfield split with Braunagel, winning at the dual while losing at Midlands. I’m moving Braunagel to #9. HTH, in this case was the deciding factor as their records are not horribly dissimilar, and Mayfield winning at the dual carries a bit more weight than a tournament loss. In other words, Carlson and Mayfield dual wins over Braunagel relegate Brauagel to the bottom of this list-of-three.

With Carlson’s limited action, I’m going #7 Mayfield and #8 Carlson. It really is a toss-up though given limited data.

165 is the first weight class where a Big Ten is not among the top four nationally. Keegan O’Toole (3rd and 1st at NCAA's), David Carr (1st and 3rd), Shane Griffin (1st and 2nd) and Quincy Monday (2nd) are solid, even if a few of those finishes were at 157 at the NCAA Championships. Amine does rank ahead of Monday in several polls, and I’ll add that the Big Ten boasts five in the top 12. There’s a great chance for some All-American finishes for the best wrestling conference in the country. With three more guys settled into the top 20, the Big Ten will get at least eight and maybe nine qualifier spots when also considering win % and RPI.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
165
#1 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#2 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#3 Patrick Kennedy (IOWA)
#4 Alex Facundo (PSU)
#5 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#6 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#7 Maxx Mayfield (NU)
#8 Carl Carlson (MINN)
#9 Danny Braunagel (ILL)

165 is the first Big Ten weight class without an undefeated wrestler. Four wrestlers each have one loss; Cameron Amine (MICH) to Alex Facundo (PSU), Facundo to Patrick Kennedy (IOWA), Kennedy to Dean Hamiti (WIS) and Hamiti to Amine. Little separates those four on paper, so I dove into the details. Amine also beat Carson Kharchla (tOSU) by FALL (Facundo also beat Kharchla, 4-1), and his victory over Hamiti passes the eye test as the best among the four guys noted. The Facundo tie-breaker win against Amine gets him into the conversation, but not wrestling Hamiti in the dual (legitimately missed as he was “dinged up”) AND the Kennedy loss, relegate the Penn State freshman to my #4 seed. #2 Hamiti winning HTH vs #3 Kennedy earns Hamiti the higher seed.

#5 Kharchla gets the nod over #6 Caleb Fish (MSU) with a HTH win over the Spartan. Both guys only have losses to guys seeded higher, so their seeds are solid.

Next seeds consist of some combination of Danny Braunagel (ILL), Carl Carlson (MINN) and Maxx Mayfield (NU). Braunagel has a loss to Carlson, while Carlson only went 2-2 in conference in limited action. Mayfield split with Braunagel, winning at the dual while losing at Midlands. I’m moving Braunagel to #9. HTH, in this case was the deciding factor as their records are not horribly dissimilar, and Mayfield winning at the dual carries a bit more weight than a tournament loss. In other words, Carlson and Mayfield dual wins over Braunagel relegate Brauagel to the bottom of this list-of-three.

With Carlson’s limited action, I’m going #7 Mayfield and #8 Carlson. It really is a toss-up though given limited data.

165 is the first weight class where a Big Ten is not among the top four nationally. Keegan O’Toole (3rd and 1st at NCAA's), David Carr (1st and 3rd), Shane Griffin (1st and 2nd) and Quincy Monday (2nd) are solid, even if a few of those finishes were at 157 at the NCAA Championships. Amine does rank ahead of Monday in several polls, and I’ll add that the Big Ten boasts five in the top 12. There’s a great chance for some All-American finishes for the best wrestling conference in the country. With three more guys settled into the top 20, the Big Ten will get at least eight and maybe nine qualifier spots when also considering win % and RPI.
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Amine beating Kharchla by fall is a bit deceiving as it was actually in SV when Kharchla gave up when he knew he lost the match on a reversal.

Edit - not criticizing - just adding a bit more detail.
 
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Also, Amine lost to Bryce Hepner, Kharchla's back-up. That loss could be used as a tiebreaker to move Amine to the bottom of the group. It seems like it has to go Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo-Amine or Amine-Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo.
 
Still in State College said:
Using Intermat as a guide, the B1G tournament could be huge to guys like Facundo and Haines because they both site around the 8 spot. I think for both getting to 5 or 6 would be huge.
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Facundo may need to win B10s for that to happen. Top 3 nationally are pretty much set, and the likely EIWA finalists (Monday and Ramirez) are both ranked ahead of him.

For Haines, IMO get O'Connor on the other half and take your chances with everyone else. B10 placement less important than wrestling well.
 
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Fink said:
Also, Amine lost to Bryce Hepner, Kharchla's back-up. That loss could be used as a tiebreaker to move Amine to the bottom of the group. It seems like it has to go Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo-Amine or Amine-Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo.
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I think the Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo-Amine order seems best to me. I haven't been impressed with Amine at all this year, and the SV-1 pin more like an SV-1 victory than a regulation pin. To me, Hamiti is the guy to beat at 165 in B1Gs.
 
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Random4598375 said:
I think the Hamiti-Kennedy-Facundo-Amine order seems best to me. I haven't been impressed with Amine at all this year, and the SV-1 pin more like an SV-1 victory than a regulation pin. To me, Hamiti is the guy to beat at 165 in B1Gs.
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I would not be opposed to Amine, Hamiti, Kennedy, Facundo as Amine is coming off injury and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he defaults in the semi's.
 
rmg78 said:
I would not be opposed to Amine, Hamiti, Kennedy, Facundo as Amine is coming off injury and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he defaults in the semi's.
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In all honestly, the Machiavellian preference as a PSU fan is for Hamiti to have to wrestle Kennedy in the semis regardless of whether Amine defaults or not. My original answer was based on merit, not benefit to Facundo.
 
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