If Spencer stays at 125 the dual score is likely 6-3 or 6-4 Iowa after the first 2 bouts but if he moves up it’s either likely 3-3 or 6-3 PSU. I wish it would happen as a wrestling fan but I put the odds at about 1%
Hmmm. This looks like you are a master in common core math to me.
Let's ignore the value Drake has for Iowa 4 years from now, they have no problem recruiting 125s. The value of Drake's shirt is far overstated IMO. Heck with Iowa being 125 central, Drake might not win the spot years down the road. So if they pulled his shirt, and Spencer won vs RBY the math is very compelling for Iowa, so much so, I see this as Iowa's only realistic path to victory. Of the top 6 tossup/competitive matches I see us winning at least 4.
So back to the math. With Spencer at 125 they hit 141 up by 2 points (6-4).
With Drake and Spencer IMO their chances of winning both are slightly better than 50%. Drake most likely bonuses Steen so even if the unthinkable for Iowa happened they enter 141 with a minimum of a (4-3) 1 point lead as opposed to a 2 pointer as noted with the standard lineup.
If Drake bonuses, and Spencer decisions, they enter 141 up by at least (4+3) 7. Heck the Iowa HR faithful think Spencer gets multiple turns vs RBY which could add more.
Do I think they will do it? no.
Is it the best use of Drake's RS? No but if it wins the dual, maybe.
Do I favor Spencer over RBY? In all honesty, yes by a very slight margin say 1/2 a point line.
Will Spencer losing to RBY affect the Hodge race? I think he bonuses out and it is Spencer's either way.
Does the math make a compelling case? Hell yes, ( the potential to add 5 more points) and I stand by the thought that if Spencer wins, it's Iowa's
only path to a dual victory. It doesn't guarantee it but opens up the possibility.