I will make some commentary tomorrow but it looks like some of the spiking in Northern states might finally be over or at least plateauing. Once tomorrow's numbers are in that fill in all the weekend stuff then I will be able to make more definitive conclusion. But assuming that is correct, then I expect the numbers to really go down hard the next few weeks as at that point, basically all states in the country will be in decline.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I will make some commentary tomorrow but it looks like some of the spiking in Northern states might finally be over or at least plateauing. Once tomorrow's numbers are in that fill in all the weekend stuff then I will be able to make more definitive conclusion. But assuming that is correct, then I expect the numbers to really go down hard the next few weeks as at that point, basically all states in the country will be in decline.
That would obviously be good news, but let’s see what happens in the next few weeks. It is getting colder up north now, so more people will be indoors.
Interesting note occurring that I am really starting to see in my line of work. A lot of facilities are requiring a proof of vaccination to come on site. Causing some issues as several of the service techs are not vaccinated and therefore not allowed on site. So how do you do the work if they are not vaccinated and are not going to get vaccinated. And not like we can go out and hire replacements that can do their job as they are highly skilled techs that you just cannot hire right now due to the very difficult hiring market right now and it being a reasonably niche job.
Brandon will have to walk back this hard line on vaccine mandates or his approval rating will continue to sink. There is no way we can continue like this, people should be given option to test weekly.
Someone, please, unf*ck our nation.
"Just talk to your doctor."
Who needs that stupid and simpleton advice when mandates by bureaucrats are more important and supersede it.
Come on now, Brandon cares. My parent's 86 year old neighbors can't even get an uber to go to the doctor.
The FDA really needs to get going on approving more quick tests so they can be easily available for cheap to every American. Europe is ahead of us here.
Considering how hard they are to find (from what I've read, I haven't gone searching myself) it seems a lot of people want them. But specifically the people who would rather test weekly from the context of this discussion.
Right now, about 70% of the population is immune via either infecton/recovery or vaccination.
R0 for Delta was pegged right around 7.0 (depending upon who you ask, but 7 is to the higher side of estimates.
So REff is about 2.0 - so we're still able to spread, but getting closer. I'd guess states like Florida are finished with the pandemic, while those who didn't have a strong 3rd surge will have a while to go.
The mathematics behind it, along with assumptions is here:
R0 for Delta was pegged right around 7.0 (depending upon who you ask, but 7 is to the higher side of estimates.
So REff is about 2.0 - so we're still able to spread, but getting closer. I'd guess states like Florida are finished with the pandemic, while those who didn't have a strong 3rd surge will have a while to go.
The mathematics behind it, along with assumptions is here:
Rough herd immunity calculation. Note the extreme conservativeness of the estimate for transmissibility IF fully vaxxed. Surely it isn't that bad, and is more like 65% or so.
Looks like we're getting close....we'd have been there months ago had it not been for the relatively weak performance of the vaccines against infection.
We need R(eff) to get under 1.0 for the spread to die out.
We can enter in any values we wish to discuss - R0, CDC multiplier, whatever we wish.
How much do you want to collect for a weekly test? Who is paying? Who is charging? Where is this testing happening?
Right because it's not like falsifying a vaccine card is easy. People should have options
188 deaths involving influenza
1018 deaths involving pneumonia
518 deaths involving covid
We can nitpick the numbers but the fact remains that the Covid mortality rate for school age kids is statistically quite low.
It will never end, because it’s not about your health, it’s about control. First it was about the presidential elections, now it’s about controlling the country and maintaining power. How long is it going to take for even the die hard liberals to figure it out ?
But keep believing that there’s a killer super coronavirus out there, almost 2 years after it was unleashed from the Wuhan China Labs and that isolating/quarantining/masking people ~ AND now jabbing everyone in the USA (Biden wants 95%, he said so a few weeks back) with an experimental mRNA inoculation is going to stop the tyranny. It’s just begun folks.
But keep believing that there’s a killer super coronavirus out there, almost 2 years after it was unleashed from the Wuhan China Labs and that isolating/quarantining/masking people ~ AND now jabbing everyone in the USA (Biden wants 95%, he said so a few weeks back) with an experimental mRNA inoculation is going to stop the tyranny. It’s just begun folks.
0.66M shots yesterday so total up to 409.4M.
So far, 219.1 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 189.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen. At least 10.6M have received a booster dose.
Total Population with at least one dose = 66.0%; Fully vaccinated = 57.1%; Booster = 5.8% as percent of fully vaccinated
Population over 12 years of age with at least one dose = 77.2%; Fully vaccinated = 66.8%; Booster = 6.2% as percent of fully vaccinated
Population over 18 years of age with at least one dose = 79.0%; Fully vaccinated = 68.6%; Booster = 9.7% as percent of fully vaccinated
Population over 65 years of age with at least one dose = 95.8%; Fully vaccinated = 84.4%; Booster = 14.9% as percent of fully vaccinated
71,809 positives reported yesterday compared to 92,415 week over week. 7-day rolling average is 78,046
Fatality was 1,863 reported yesterday compared to 1,617 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 1,385
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 52,146 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 50,750 compared to one week ago 59,038 DOWN 11.7%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 6,142 compared yesterday 7-day average of 5,956 compared to one week ago 6,876 DOWN 10.7%.
Daily Positives: Texas-5720, California-5711, Minnesota-5663, Pennsylvania-3899, Ohio-3617, Wisconsin-2736, New York-2670, Florida-2122, Illinios-2071, Massachusetts-2045, Colorado-1983, Washington-1972, Arizona-1887, Kentucky-1735, Georgia-1679, Virginia-1617, Indiana-1534, Idaho-1464, North Carolina-1374, Utah-1343
So when you look at the daily positives, Texas is still on the decline. California is actually now flatlined and has been steady at 5000+ per day for a week now after come down from it's peak (a peaking factor that was nothing like the Southern states). Minnesota appears to have peaked last week and is on the decline. Pa appears to have peaked last week and is on the decline although that decline does not look as steep as other states. Ohio is on a steady decline since mid-September. Wisconsin peaked last week and is on the decline. New York you could say peaked in late September and is on an extremely slow decline that is very flat. Florida is on a crazy decline from a peak of 20,000+ per day in late August to 2440 per day now. Illinois is on a slow decline since mid September. Massachusetts peaked in mid-September but has really flatlined the last few weeks and is not declining anymore. Colorado is at it's peak it appears, has gone down the last few days but not long enough to declare the peak over. Washington peaked in mid-September but the last week has flatlined. Arizona is like New York and on a very slow decline for a month. Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina are all on a very steady decline. Idaho is peaking now. Michigan is still peaking. Utah on the steady slow decline.
So basically there are only a few states left out there that are not declining and based on what their chart looks like, I suspect they will be on the decline before the end of the month. The rate of decline can vary widely with some states on a step 45 degree angle with other states having it be very slow. The country peaked at 167k cases on September 2nd. On October 2nd that number had decreased to 108k. On October 20th we are at 78k. So we should be down in the 60k by months end.
There have been 8 deaths under 18 in PA
On a different note. In a similar situation that Cletus11 talked about. A local nursing home got rid of all their unvaccinated nurses and staff. Then 22 staff memebers tested positive. Guess who they brought back.
Yes, but the point to posting the data was to refute the false claim being circulated here that the flu was much much much more lethal for kids than COVID.
Along similar lines, talking to a friend who does some substitute teaching. She was at a low income district last week and they have had so many bus drivers quit due to the mandate that the school literally has 5 bus runs and the last bus run is at 5:15 at night. So kids done with school at 3PM and if you are on the last bus run sit in the cafeteria for 2+ hours.
Montgomery CO MD claimed the other day to have over 99% of all eligible people vaccinated. Just from data I have in our athletic department in the county shows otherwise. Assuming the overall HS population is vaccinated at a similar rate as the athletic populations that alone would bring their number below 99%.
While the overall # is probably very high (my friend at NIH say they think its more like 85%-90% due to pockets of specific minorities refusing it) its typical of todays news to incorrectly report to meet an agenda.
While the overall # is probably very high (my friend at NIH say they think its more like 85%-90% due to pockets of specific minorities refusing it) its typical of todays news to incorrectly report to meet an agenda.
I heard just the opposite. Older drivers decided to quit because they would be in close contact with so many unvaccinated people that the risks to them were too high.
Yawn, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
This union chief should just shut up. Doesn't he know beaurocrats are better at medicine than doctors?
Southwood said there’s been no consideration in the vaccine mandate debate about natural immunity.
“And a lot of our members have already been exposed to COVID,” Southwood said. “A lot of our members have already had COVID. What about the natural immunities that they have now that protects them even in some studies showing better than the vaccine does and they don’t have to deal with the adverse effects of the vaccine.”
www.yahoo.com
Southwood said there’s been no consideration in the vaccine mandate debate about natural immunity.
“And a lot of our members have already been exposed to COVID,” Southwood said. “A lot of our members have already had COVID. What about the natural immunities that they have now that protects them even in some studies showing better than the vaccine does and they don’t have to deal with the adverse effects of the vaccine.”
Statewide police union warns of political consequences if lawmakers attempt changes to Health Care Right of Conscience Act
Chicago police face possible separation from the force for not complying with Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, but a statewide union said the mayor is not negotiating in good faith.
Liberals can’t stand the truth.
No, we can't stand loud mouth morons like you spreading their stupidity like a virus.
I considered putting you on ignore, but you are too amusing, entertaining and easily agitated to do so BlueLion.
A good Christian he is, just let him tell you. He goes to church on Sundays and then judges everyone else while only caring about himself with the vaccine. Just put this hypocrite on ignore. He’s so FOS it isn’t even funny.
To quote Hillary, at this point “what difference does it make “? If vaxed folks can pass the virus to other vaxed folks and all get sick and some even die why are the unvaxed folks the bad guys. Even when many of them have natural immunity or have never been sick or had the virus. I just do not understand the so called science. We need to just stop reporting numbers and go back to living.
Thats what everyone against the vax has said from day one. Because that's what they said about the vax when it came out.
This union chief should just shut up. Doesn't he know beaurocrats are better at medicine than doctors?
Southwood said there’s been no consideration in the vaccine mandate debate about natural immunity.
“And a lot of our members have already been exposed to COVID,” Southwood said. “A lot of our members have already had COVID. What about the natural immunities that they have now that protects them even in some studies showing better than the vaccine does and they don’t have to deal with the adverse effects of the vaccine.”
Statewide police union warns of political consequences if lawmakers attempt changes to Health Care Right of Conscience Act
Chicago police face possible separation from the force for not complying with Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, but a statewide union said the mayor is not negotiating in good faith.
These police officers should just accept the mandate and SHOT. THE. F*CK. UP.
. The mayor knows better.The CDC says they undercount pediatric flu deaths. The CDC also says that 35% of pediatric covid deaths couldn't medically be from covid.
The flu is far more deadly to kids, especially otherwise healthy kids, than covid.
So you are now dealing in alternative facts and fake news. If you had any honesty then you would recognize that the vaccine mandates are causing substantial issues in the workforce. The supply chain issues now are only going to get worse as the year runs out and to be honest, it is scary. Sometimes a good manager recognizes the reality of the situation and has to make some compromises and pick the lesser of two evils. Right now, the vaccine mandate is causing much more harm then good.
Just so you know the supply chain issues on the food side have been going on since at least last summer. Its been a crazy last 6 months though. I don't think people understand how close certain food items are from not being available. I talked with a customer today who had someone complain that the onion rings are different that she was serving. She explained the situation and he said-I would just not serve onion rings then. Another person complained that they were out of something and walked out. These restrauants can't win. The only good news is not everyone is an asshole!
I know. I saw it starting last spring when random stuff in the grocery store would be out and other shelves pretty bare. Told my wife I am concerned about what is going to come. And supply chain issues are not solved overnight either. Have to stop the unemployment benefit extension and get people working. The fact that just this week started to go 24/7/364 at the LA ports is just outrageous, that should have happened literally months ago. I think the worse is yet to come and when food products start to become scarce that is what is really scary to me now as then that is when panic sets in. One thing to run low on TP and have to use some tissues or napkins, etc..but when food becomes scarce that is a serious health and safety risk looming.
And what is just as scary as I work with a lot of Fortune 1000 large manufacturing companies and they are having issues sourcing raw materials to even keep their factories running. I know a couple of them are planning shutdowns when they normally would not just because they know they cannot continue to run at full capacity so are doing their best to use the time to the best that they can in doing some mtce. activities versus just sitting idle.
At some point people will realize that laborers need to be paid or they won’t work. Corporate profits on the shoulders of workers can only last for so long. The chickens have come home to roost.
We settled this issue earlier.
Influenza is about 2x worse than Covid, as measured by Death, for young people.
There was some confusion about which numbers the CDC represent the actual Flu burden, but that seems to have been sorted out by their own language.
So, the answer is pretty clear - Influenza is somewhat worse (about 2x) than Covid for the young.
Link:
About half way down the page.
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Allow Mexicans to come in and work the jobs Americans wont perform. They are hard working people for an economical cost.
