No.'s 2, 3, 4, and 5

[RoarLions1]

Not bravado at all. Using InterMat, PSU is listed No. 1, followed by Ohio State, Iowa, Oklahoma State and Michigan. Bouts are wrestled for a reason, and I'll always agree with Cael that preparation and hard work are needed up to the time of the tournament, don't relax as No. 1.

So, taking PSU out of the mix completely...of the two through five ranked tournament teams, what are other's thoughts on order of finish at NCAA's? Also interested in knowing why. For example, are there guys that you think will surprise (perform enough above their seed to earn critical team points), or maybe some that you think are ranked, and likely seeded, higher than they will perform?

 

[nerfstate]

My opinion on this changes a lot based on dual outcomes which probably means it’s not a good opinion. I’m actually coming around to the idea that Iowa has a good shot at 2nd, but if Weigl and Rogers are close to 100%, it could easily be the cowboys. And maybe Michigan could have a breakout tourney—they have the talent to get 2nd—but seem to regularly underperform come tourney time. I guess that other school has a chance too.

 

[pish69]

Tough..

Let’s start with expected podium

OSU- 125, 133, 149, 174, HWT
TOSU-141, 149, 184, 197
Iowa- 125, 133, 165, 197
Michigan- 133, 157, 165, 174,

Now let’s look at expected finalists
OSU- none
TOSU 184,197
Iowa 125
Michigan 133

Now let’s look at expected top 3 finishes
OSU-133, HWT
tOSU - 141, 149, 184, 197
Iowa- 125, 165
Michigan 133

Based on this I would have tOSU at 2. OSU 3, Iowa 4, Michigan 5

But then you look at possible podium finishes (not definets) and OSU has a bunch of weights that can make podium (141, 165, 184, 197) where tOSU only has (133, 157). Iowa has (149, 157,,HwT). Michigan only has (141, HWT)

So in my opinion I’m going to stick with
tOSU 2nd
OSU 3rd
Iowa 4th
Michigan 5

If OSU has a good tourney I wouldn’t be surprised if them in 2nd. If Iowa gets Lee as Champ and Bull as finalist and a good tourney from Warner and Stoll they could easily finish 2nd

This is tough but I tried..the only team I’d be shocked for 2nd is Michigan

 

[nerfstate]

Tough..

Let’s start with definite podium

OSU- 125, 133, 149, 174, HWT
TOSU-141, 149, 184, 197
Iowa- 125, 133, 165
Michigan- 133, 157, 165, 174,

Now let’s look at lock finalists
OSU- none
TOSU 184,197
Iowa 125
Michigan 133

Now let’s look at probable top 3 finishes
OSU-133, HWT
tOSU - 141, 149, 184, 197
Iowa- 125, 165
Michigan 133

Based on this I would have tOSU at 2. OSU 3, Iowa 4, Michigan 5

But then you look at possible podium finishes (not definets) and OSU has a bunch of weights that can make podium (141, 165, 184, 197) where tOSU only has (133, 157). Iowa has (149, 157,197,HwT). Michigan only has (141, HWT)

So in my opinion I’m going to stick with
tOSU 2nd
OSU 3rd
Iowa 4th
Michigan 5

If OSU has a good tourney I wouldn’t be surprised if them in 2nd. If Iowa gets Lee as Champ and Bull as finalist and a good tourney from Warner and Stoll they could easily finish 2nd

This is tough but I tried..the only team I’d be shocked for 2nd is Michigan

Better analysis than me but I think you’re selling Amine and Pantaleo a bit short. They’re both likely top 3, IMO.

 

[pish69]

Better analysis than me but I think you’re selling Amine and Pantaleo a bit short. They’re both likely top 3, IMO.

I can be wrong no doubt, but the 2 guys you mentioned are not currently ranked top 3 and the guys ahead of them are pretty good.

You are correct though. Amine totally slipped my mind as probable top 3

Amine is ranked 3 now, but will go to 4 next week

 

[a_mshaffer]

My opinion on this changes a lot based on dual outcomes which probably means it’s not a good opinion. I’m actually coming around to the idea that Iowa has a good shot at 2nd, but if Weigl and Rogers are close to 100%, it could easily be the cowboys. And maybe Michigan could have a breakout tourney—they have the talent to get 2nd—but seem to regularly underperform come tourney time. I guess that other school has a chance too.

When you get a new coach new things may happen.

 

[RoarLions1]

Tough..

Yes, it is. Anyone that knows anything about the national tourney though, recognizes that the unpredictable, unforeseeable, and strange happens.

I like your analysis...if anything I'd tone down the "definite podium" and "lock finalists" comments, but that's just me being me. There are no guarantees.

 

[pish69]

Yes, it is. Anyone that knows anything about the national tourney though, recognizes that the unpredictable, unforeseeable, and strange happens.

I like your analysis...if anything I'd tone down the "definite podium" and "lock finalists" comments, but that's just me being me. There are no guarantees.

I didn’t like my verbiage either..I just edited it

I also added 197 to expected podium for Iowa. Even though I’m not impressed with Warner, the weight is really weak

And Stoll would definetly be an expected podium but I don’t trust his health

 

[Cali_Nittany]

I didn’t like my verbiage either..I just edited it

I also added 197 to expected podium for Iowa. Even though I’m not impressed with Warner, the weight is really weak

And Stoll would definetly be an expected podium but I don’t trust his health

As the current #2, I would add 165 to Iowa's projected finalists.

 

[pish69]

As the current #2, I would add 165 to Iowa's projected finalists.

I’m not going purely ranking based. Some of it is my own gut. I like Bull but I can’t get over the 2 semi slides he had last year

That being said you can certainly make that case and I won’t argue

 

[bowandarrow]

Dual Teams:
2) Okie St.
3) Michigan
4) O$U
5) Iowa

Tournament Teams:
2) O$U
3) Okie St.
4) Iowa
5) Michigan

Nice breakdown by @pish69

 

[pish69]

Dual Teams:
2) Okie St.
3) Michigan
4) O$U
5) Iowa

Tournament Teams:
2) O$U
3) Okie St.
4) Iowa
5) Michigan

Nice breakdown by @pish69

Agree 100% with your dual rankings. Nice we’ll at least be able to see Okie State vs Iowa this month

 

[RoarLions1]

Using Placement/Advancement, from 1st to 8th; 20, 16, 13.5, 12.5, 10, 9, 6.5, 5.5...

IOWA
-- Spencer Lee could end #1, adding 4 points (2nd ranked, to 1st place).
-- Stoll, given his circumstance, is about right at #7 ranking, but could end up anywhere from up a place or two, to off the podium altogether. Off the podium subtracts about 6.5, up one place could add 2.5 points.
-- DeSanto looks to me like a best possible outcome at #3, but with Suriano (yes, I know ADS won at the dual), Pletcher, Phillippi, and others, could be lower. One place is worth a point, 2 places is 3.5.
-- Lugo or Wilcke as AA's would be huge. The rankings have them #12 and #10, and an 8th Place finish would be worth 5.5 huge team points for either.

MICHIGAN
-- Storr at #6 looks the most vulnerable to not matching his ranking. A drop from #6 to off the podium is -9 team points, 7th is -2.5, 8th is -3.5.
-- Parris is another of those guys that could go off the podium, and I don't see him bettering a #6 finish. Same as Storr, off the podium is -9, etc., etc.
-- Massa at #7 has the most upside that I see. Finish 4th for example is worth 6 points, 5th is worth 3.5, and 6th worth 2.5.
-- Few points, if any, at 149 and 197 hurt, plus 125 and 184, unless they wrestle the tournament of their lives (happens!!), a couple points are all that's expected.

OHIO STATE
-- Pletcher and Hayes, both #6, are possible bets for lower place finishes. Either/both could finish higher, sure. I'm looking at the talent (Lizak, Gomez, Erneste, Bridges, RBY at 133, and Young, Bleise, Early, Barone at 157) just behind them, and imo there's equal probability of getting the 9 points for 6th as there is getting fewer points.
-- M. Jordan is maxxed out at #3, as is Martin at #1 (obvious), and Moore at #2 (just as obvious).
-- 125, 165 and 285 likely won't yield many points, nor 174 (Smith) though I believe he has the best chance to surprise. An AA from any of these four, albeit unlikely, would be huge.

OKLAHOMA STATE
-- Piccininni could do better than #4. 3rd would be worth 1, but finishing as a finalist is bigger points (3.5 for 2nd)
-- A Brock, Geer, and/or Rogers AA finish would be big, as all three show out of the money by IM. 8th is worth 5.5 each, 7th is 6.6, and 6th is 9 points. All three are capable imo.
-- Gfeller is within one of his peak at #5, imo, and it would be a good finish. Could be #4 (worth 2.5 points).
-- White finishing 2nd, Joe Smith 7th, and Jacobe Smith 8th would all be good results, and about where I'd put them. One slip, and both Smiths could finish off the podium, but looking at the guys ahead of them, it's just as likely they finish higher than their ranking.

I see Iowa and Oklahoma State with the highest upside. A couple guys ranked just outside the top-8 finishing as AA's add valuable team points. Using the Tournament Points from IM, tOSU is ahead of Iowa by 9.5, so I guess I'll call that a toss-up for 2nd Place. Oklahoma State could enter the fray for second if they have a great tournament, especially if their three guys just outside the top-8 finish on the podium. Michigan, imo, with only Massa with significant upside, and not getting much from four weight classes, is my lowest finishing of these four teams.

tOSU and Iowa - dogfight for the best of these four teams
OSU - highest upside, could be in the mix with tOSU and Iowa, but many things have to go their way.
Michigan - best of the rest

 

[KCLion]

Using Placement/Advancement, from 1st to 8th; 20, 16, 13.5, 12.5, 10, 9, 6.5, 5.5...

IOWA
-- Spencer Lee could end #1, adding 4 points (2nd ranked, to 1st place).
-- Stoll, given his circumstance, is about right at #7 ranking, but could end up anywhere from up a place or two, to off the podium altogether. Off the podium subtracts about 6.5, up one place could add 2.5 points.
-- DeSanto looks to me like a best possible outcome at #3, but with Suriano (yes, I know ADS won at the dual), Pletcher, Phillippi, and others, could be lower. One place is worth a point, 2 places is 3.5.
-- Lugo or Wilcke as AA's would be huge. The rankings have them #12 and #10, and an 8th Place finish would be worth 5.5 huge team points for either.

MICHIGAN
-- Storr at #6 looks the most vulnerable to not matching his ranking. A drop from #6 to off the podium is -9 team points, 7th is -2.5, 8th is -3.5.
-- Parris is another of those guys that could go off the podium, and I don't see him bettering a #6 finish. Same as Storr, off the podium is -9, etc., etc.
-- Massa at #7 has the most upside that I see. Finish 4th for example is worth 6 points, 5th is worth 3.5, and 6th worth 2.5.
-- Few points, if any, at 149 and 197 hurt, plus 125 and 184, unless they wrestle the tournament of their lives (happens!!), a couple points are all that's expected.

OHIO STATE
-- Pletcher and Hayes, both #6, are possible bets for lower place finishes. Either/both could finish higher, sure. I'm looking at the talent (Lizak, Gomez, Erneste, Bridges, RBY at 133, and Young, Bleise, Early, Barone at 157) just behind them, and imo there's equal probability of getting the 9 points for 6th as there is getting fewer points.
-- M. Jordan is maxxed out at #3, as is Martin at #1 (obvious), and Moore at #2 (just as obvious).
-- 125, 165 and 285 likely won't yield many points, nor 174 (Smith) though I believe he has the best chance to surprise. An AA from any of these four, albeit unlikely, would be huge.

OKLAHOMA STATE
-- Piccininni could do better than #4. 3rd would be worth 1, but finishing as a finalist is bigger points (3.5 for 2nd)
-- A Brock, Geer, and/or Rogers AA finish would be big, as all three show out of the money by IM. 8th is worth 5.5 each, 7th is 6.6, and 6th is 9 points. All three are capable imo.
-- Gfeller is within one of his peak at #5, imo, and it would be a good finish. Could be #4 (worth 2.5 points).
-- White finishing 2nd, Joe Smith 7th, and Jacobe Smith 8th would all be good results, and about where I'd put them. One slip, and both Smiths could finish off the podium, but looking at the guys ahead of them, it's just as likely they finish higher than their ranking.

I see Iowa and Oklahoma State with the highest upside. A couple guys ranked just outside the top-8 finishing as AA's add valuable team points. Using the Tournament Points from IM, tOSU is ahead of Iowa by 9.5, so I guess I'll call that a toss-up for 2nd Place. Oklahoma State could enter the fray for second if they have a great tournament, especially if their three guys just outside the top-8 finish on the podium. Michigan, imo, with only Massa with significant upside, and not getting much from four weight classes, is my lowest finishing of these four teams.

tOSU and Iowa - dogfight for the best of these four teams
OSU - highest upside, could be in the mix with tOSU and Iowa, but many things have to go their way.
Michigan - best of the rest

Did you deduct the DeSanto team points he is likely to “earn”, tic.

 

[jack66]

Iowa is the hardest team to handicap IMO. Between wrestling a weak schedule and ducking tough match-ups, I suspect they don't have a lot of upside beyond their rankings. Their match with Ok St should tell us a lot about both teams.

I don't have any strong feelings, or reasons, so I'll go with my gut.
2. tOSU 3. OSU 4. Iowa 5. Mich.

 

[jtothemfp]

I think a healthy Weigel buries tOSU for 2nd. 197 is sofffft, and he can sleepwalk to 3rd.
Geer can get the back-end of the 184 podium that Jacobe prob can't,
But Jacobe can prob get at 174, although JoJo will prevent him, so, no Jacobe

 

[jmadden1998]

Iowa is the hardest team to handicap IMO. Between wrestling a weak schedule and ducking tough match-ups, I suspect they don't have a lot of upside beyond their rankings. Their match with Ok St should tell us a lot about both teams.

I don't have any strong feelings, or reasons, so I'll go with my gut.
2. tOSU 3. OSU 4. Iowa 5. Mich.

I like to use numbers instead of perception to evaluate teams. I know wrestlebypirate includes strength of schedule for both team and individual. These are last weeks rankings FYI. He has OSU at 9, Iowa at 10, Michigan at 19, and tOSU at 26. Has Penn St at 23. Iowa individual strength of schedule

Lee 4
Desanto 16
Murin 17
Lugo 2
Young 9
Marinelli 7
Bowman N/A (not enough matches)
Wilcke 11
Warner 2
Stoll 13

Just to compare here is Penn St individual rankings

Schnupp 40
RBY 29
Lee 34
Berge 38
Nolf 21
Joseph 25
Hall 5
Rasheed 26
Nickal 22
Cassar 7

 

[NoVaLion2]

I must say, this is one of the best threads I've read here in a while. LOTS of really good info on the competition. For those of us who don't have as much time to follow things as closely as we/I would like -- this is a gold mine. Thanks to everyone who has posted here.

 

[El-Jefe]

I think a healthy Weigel buries tOSU for 2nd. 197 is sofffft, and he can sleepwalk to 3rd.
Geer can get the back-end of the 184 podium that Jacobe prob can't,
But Jacobe can prob get at 174, although JoJo will prevent him, so, no Jacobe

View embedded media

Jacobe Smith could cut to 157. It's the cowboy way.

 

[Used2BEerie]

I think a healthy Weigel buries tOSU for 2nd. 197 is sofffft, and he can sleepwalk to 3rd.
Geer can get the back-end of the 184 podium that Jacobe prob can't,
But Jacobe can prob get at 174, although JoJo will prevent him, so, no Jacobe

View embedded media

It will be interesting to see what OSU's post season roster looks like. With Weigel back, I'm not sure if Geer will have enough time to drop back to 184 unless he was already working a descent plan prior to Weigel's return.

 

[El-Jefe]

It will be interesting to see what OSU's post season roster looks like. With Weigel back, I'm not sure if Geer will have enough time to drop back to 184 unless he was already working a descent plan prior to Weigel's return.

B12s are on 3/9.

If Geer weighed in yesterday, his max would've been approx 195 -- without seeing his weigh-ins, he might have been under that anyway as a bumped up 184.

His last match was 2/3. If that was also his last weigh-in, then he's likely on track -- but depending on that exact weight, he might not be able to go 184 before the postseason.

 

[jack66]

I like to use numbers instead of perception to evaluate teams. I know wrestlebypirate includes strength of schedule for both team and individual. These are last weeks rankings FYI. He has OSU at 9, Iowa at 10, Michigan at 19, and tOSU at 26. Has Penn St at 23. Iowa individual strength of schedule

Lee 4
Desanto 16
Murin 17
Lugo 2
Young 9
Marinelli 7
Bowman N/A (not enough matches)
Wilcke 11
Warner 2
Stoll 13

Just to compare here is Penn St individual rankings

Schnupp 40
RBY 29
Lee 34
Berge 38
Nolf 21
Joseph 25
Hall 5
Rasheed 26
Nickal 22
Cassar 7

Interesting that you use last weeks SOS. Good example of how one can choose whichever set of stats support his opinion. Since then PSU wrestlers have added 6 top-10, and 9 ranked wrestlers to their SOS, Iowa's line-up faced a total of 1 ranked wrestler.

I find Warner at #2 vs Bo at #22 particularly intriguing. Warner has faced 3 ranked wrestlers, according to Intermat, Bo has faced 6 ... including #2.

I could go on with stats of my choosing, but I think I'll just stick with perception. In the end it will probably trump your outdated "numbers"..

 

[jmadden1998]

Interesting that you use last weeks SOS. Good example of how one can choose whichever set of stats support his opinion. Since then PSU wrestlers have added 6 top-10, and 9 ranked wrestlers to their SOS, Iowa's line-up faced a total of 1 ranked wrestler.

I find Warner at #2 vs Bo at #22 particularly intriguing. Warner has faced 3 ranked wrestlers, according to Intermat, Bo has faced 6 ... including #2.

I could go on with stats of my choosing, but I think I'll just stick with perception. In the end it will probably trump your outdated "numbers"..

The new rankings don’t come out until this week. I used the most current available. Let’s review after they come out.

 

[lockhavenlion3]

The new rankings don’t come out until this week. I used the most current available. Let’s review after they come out.

doesn't matter what set of numbers are used. everyone knows what team is best, and who will prevail when it counts.

 

[jmadden1998]

doesn't matter what set of numbers are used. everyone knows what team is best, and who will prevail when it counts.

I agree. The thread is about 2-5 and a statement was made that Iowa had a weak schedule. The numbers prove otherwise.

 

[JohnBasedow]

doesn't matter what set of numbers are used. everyone knows what team is best, and who will prevail when it counts.

Classic Nolf next question post.

 

[JohnBasedow]

Using Placement/Advancement, from 1st to 8th; 20, 16, 13.5, 12.5, 10, 9, 6.5, 5.5...

IOWA
-- Spencer Lee could end #1, adding 4 points (2nd ranked, to 1st place).
-- Stoll, given his circumstance, is about right at #7 ranking, but could end up anywhere from up a place or two, to off the podium altogether. Off the podium subtracts about 6.5, up one place could add 2.5 points.
-- DeSanto looks to me like a best possible outcome at #3, but with Suriano (yes, I know ADS won at the dual), Pletcher, Phillippi, and others, could be lower. One place is worth a point, 2 places is 3.5.
-- Lugo or Wilcke as AA's would be huge. The rankings have them #12 and #10, and an 8th Place finish would be worth 5.5 huge team points for either.

MICHIGAN
-- Storr at #6 looks the most vulnerable to not matching his ranking. A drop from #6 to off the podium is -9 team points, 7th is -2.5, 8th is -3.5.
-- Parris is another of those guys that could go off the podium, and I don't see him bettering a #6 finish. Same as Storr, off the podium is -9, etc., etc.
-- Massa at #7 has the most upside that I see. Finish 4th for example is worth 6 points, 5th is worth 3.5, and 6th worth 2.5.
-- Few points, if any, at 149 and 197 hurt, plus 125 and 184, unless they wrestle the tournament of their lives (happens!!), a couple points are all that's expected.

OHIO STATE
-- Pletcher and Hayes, both #6, are possible bets for lower place finishes. Either/both could finish higher, sure. I'm looking at the talent (Lizak, Gomez, Erneste, Bridges, RBY at 133, and Young, Bleise, Early, Barone at 157) just behind them, and imo there's equal probability of getting the 9 points for 6th as there is getting fewer points.
-- M. Jordan is maxxed out at #3, as is Martin at #1 (obvious), and Moore at #2 (just as obvious).
-- 125, 165 and 285 likely won't yield many points, nor 174 (Smith) though I believe he has the best chance to surprise. An AA from any of these four, albeit unlikely, would be huge.

OKLAHOMA STATE
-- Piccininni could do better than #4. 3rd would be worth 1, but finishing as a finalist is bigger points (3.5 for 2nd)
-- A Brock, Geer, and/or Rogers AA finish would be big, as all three show out of the money by IM. 8th is worth 5.5 each, 7th is 6.6, and 6th is 9 points. All three are capable imo.
-- Gfeller is within one of his peak at #5, imo, and it would be a good finish. Could be #4 (worth 2.5 points).
-- White finishing 2nd, Joe Smith 7th, and Jacobe Smith 8th would all be good results, and about where I'd put them. One slip, and both Smiths could finish off the podium, but looking at the guys ahead of them, it's just as likely they finish higher than their ranking.

I see Iowa and Oklahoma State with the highest upside. A couple guys ranked just outside the top-8 finishing as AA's add valuable team points. Using the Tournament Points from IM, tOSU is ahead of Iowa by 9.5, so I guess I'll call that a toss-up for 2nd Place. Oklahoma State could enter the fray for second if they have a great tournament, especially if their three guys just outside the top-8 finish on the podium. Michigan, imo, with only Massa with significant upside, and not getting much from four weight classes, is my lowest finishing of these four teams.

tOSU and Iowa - dogfight for the best of these four teams
OSU - highest upside, could be in the mix with tOSU and Iowa, but many things have to go their way.
Michigan - best of the rest

Good break down. One thing I will point out about Iowa’s fringe guys is that many of them are in weight classes that aren’t as deep which could be big for Iowa come tournament time.

149, 157, 184, 197 and Hwt are prime examples as they are top heavy. 184 maybe not as much but Wilcke has shown he can compete with the upper echelon (other than Martin).

I think Iowa/Ok St are neck and neck for 2nd and 3rd. I give the edge to Iowa based on bonus points. Ohio State has a low ceiling IMO but they will be 4th and Michigan will slot it at 5.

 

[jmadden1998]

Interesting that you use last weeks SOS. Good example of how one can choose whichever set of stats support his opinion. Since then PSU wrestlers have added 6 top-10, and 9 ranked wrestlers to their SOS, Iowa's line-up faced a total of 1 ranked wrestler.

I find Warner at #2 vs Bo at #22 particularly intriguing. Warner has faced 3 ranked wrestlers, according to Intermat, Bo has faced 6 ... including #2.

I could go on with stats of my choosing, but I think I'll just stick with perception. In the end it will probably trump your outdated "numbers"..

Feb 11 rankings. Team

Iowa 6
Penn St 8
OSU 9
Michigan 11
tOSU 13

Iowa individual

Lee 4
Desanto 13
Murin 15
Lugo 6
Young 10
Marinelli 9
Bowman 49
Wilcke 12
Warner 8
Stoll 9

Penn St

Schnupp 36
RBY 23
Lee 27
Berge 37
Nolf 17
Joseph 24
Hall 5
Rasheed 27
Nickal 14
Cassar 7

 

[pish69]

Feb 11 rankings. Team

Iowa 6
Penn St 8
OSU 9
Michigan 11
tOSU 13

Iowa individual

Lee 4
Desanto 13
Murin 15
Lugo 6
Young 10
Marinelli 9
Bowman 49
Wilcke 12
Warner 8
Stoll 9

Penn St

Schnupp 36
RBY 23
Lee 27
Berge 37
Nolf 17
Joseph 24
Hall 5
Rasheed 27
Nickal 14
Cassar 7

What rankings are these?

 

[jmadden1998]

What rankings are these?

Read further up in the post. They are strength of schedule from wrestlebypirates rankings. It was said Iowa was hard to gauge because they had a weak schedule. I wanted to compare to the other top teams.

 

[pish69]

Read further up in the post. They are strength of schedule from wrestlebypirates rankings. It was said Iowa was hard to gauge because they had a weak schedule. I wanted to compare to the other top teams.

Interesting. How is the team one ranked? Based on individuals they’ve faced or the rank of the teams they’ve faced?

I would think PSU, Michigan and tOSU would be higher than Iowa since they’ve all wrestled each other.

Who’s number 1? Has to be Lehigh

 

[dunkej01]

Read further up in the post. They are strength of schedule from wrestlebypirates rankings. It was said Iowa was hard to gauge because they had a weak schedule. I wanted to compare to the other top teams.

maybe pirate could build an algorithm that measures the SOS of the PSU practice room

 

[jmadden1998]

Interesting. How is the team one ranked? Based on individuals they’ve faced or the rank of the teams they’ve faced?

I would think PSU, Michigan and tOSU would be higher than Iowa since they’ve all wrestled each other.

Who’s number 1? Has to be Lehigh

Illinois 1
Lehigh 2
Northwestern 3
Nebraska 4
Minnesota 5

 

[NoVaLion2]

Feb 11 rankings. Team

Iowa 6
Penn St 8
OSU 9
Michigan 11
tOSU 13

Iowa individual

Lee 4
Desanto 13
Murin 15
Lugo 6
Young 10
Marinelli 9
Bowman 49
Wilcke 12
Warner 8
Stoll 9

Penn St

Schnupp 36
RBY 23
Lee 27
Berge 37
Nolf 17
Joseph 24
Hall 5
Rasheed 27
Nickal 14
Cassar 7

These kinds of numbers are always a little skewed. e.g., It's not possible for us to wrestle #1.

 

[jmadden1998]

These kinds of numbers are always a little skewed. e.g., It's not possible for us to wrestle #1.

If pirate is reading this he can speak to how his rankings are calculated.

 

[jack66]

Read further up in the post. They are strength of schedule from wrestlebypirates rankings. It was said Iowa was hard to gauge because they had a weak schedule. I wanted to compare to the other top teams.

So is wrestleby pirates the end all of all rankings. Iowa's toughest test was #7 Minnesota, #10 Nebraska is the only other top-10. Meanwhile Michigan, tOSU and PSU have staged a round robin.

Anyone with common sense would recognize there is something askew with the Pirate's algorithm.

Trying to "prove" Iowa .hasn't had a relatively weak schedule by using these outdated numbers is like trying to put lipstick on a pig.

 

[BFosr1]

Using Placement/Advancement, from 1st to 8th; 20, 16, 13.5, 12.5, 10, 9, 6.5, 5.5...

IOWA
-- Spencer Lee could end #1, adding 4 points (2nd ranked, to 1st place).
-- Stoll, given his circumstance, is about right at #7 ranking, but could end up anywhere from up a place or two, to off the podium altogether. Off the podium subtracts about 6.5, up one place could add 2.5 points.
-- DeSanto looks to me like a best possible outcome at #3, but with Suriano (yes, I know ADS won at the dual), Pletcher, Phillippi, and others, could be lower. One place is worth a point, 2 places is 3.5.
-- Lugo or Wilcke as AA's would be huge. The rankings have them #12 and #10, and an 8th Place finish would be worth 5.5 huge team points for either.

MICHIGAN
-- Storr at #6 looks the most vulnerable to not matching his ranking. A drop from #6 to off the podium is -9 team points, 7th is -2.5, 8th is -3.5.
-- Parris is another of those guys that could go off the podium, and I don't see him bettering a #6 finish. Same as Storr, off the podium is -9, etc., etc.
-- Massa at #7 has the most upside that I see. Finish 4th for example is worth 6 points, 5th is worth 3.5, and 6th worth 2.5.
-- Few points, if any, at 149 and 197 hurt, plus 125 and 184, unless they wrestle the tournament of their lives (happens!!), a couple points are all that's expected.

OHIO STATE
-- Pletcher and Hayes, both #6, are possible bets for lower place finishes. Either/both could finish higher, sure. I'm looking at the talent (Lizak, Gomez, Erneste, Bridges, RBY at 133, and Young, Bleise, Early, Barone at 157) just behind them, and imo there's equal probability of getting the 9 points for 6th as there is getting fewer points.
-- M. Jordan is maxxed out at #3, as is Martin at #1 (obvious), and Moore at #2 (just as obvious).
-- 125, 165 and 285 likely won't yield many points, nor 174 (Smith) though I believe he has the best chance to surprise. An AA from any of these four, albeit unlikely, would be huge.

OKLAHOMA STATE
-- Piccininni could do better than #4. 3rd would be worth 1, but finishing as a finalist is bigger points (3.5 for 2nd)
-- A Brock, Geer, and/or Rogers AA finish would be big, as all three show out of the money by IM. 8th is worth 5.5 each, 7th is 6.6, and 6th is 9 points. All three are capable imo.
-- Gfeller is within one of his peak at #5, imo, and it would be a good finish. Could be #4 (worth 2.5 points).
-- White finishing 2nd, Joe Smith 7th, and Jacobe Smith 8th would all be good results, and about where I'd put them. One slip, and both Smiths could finish off the podium, but looking at the guys ahead of them, it's just as likely they finish higher than their ranking.

I see Iowa and Oklahoma State with the highest upside. A couple guys ranked just outside the top-8 finishing as AA's add valuable team points. Using the Tournament Points from IM, tOSU is ahead of Iowa by 9.5, so I guess I'll call that a toss-up for 2nd Place. Oklahoma State could enter the fray for second if they have a great tournament, especially if their three guys just outside the top-8 finish on the podium. Michigan, imo, with only Massa with significant upside, and not getting much from four weight classes, is my lowest finishing of these four teams.

tOSU and Iowa - dogfight for the best of these four teams
OSU - highest upside, could be in the mix with tOSU and Iowa, but many things have to go their way.
Michigan - best of the rest

Why is Micah Jordan maxed out at #3 at 149?

 

[Waste Management Consultant]

I like to use numbers instead of perception to evaluate teams. I know wrestlebypirate includes strength of schedule for both team and individual. These are last weeks rankings FYI. He has OSU at 9, Iowa at 10, Michigan at 19, and tOSU at 26. Has Penn St at 23. Iowa individual strength of schedule

Lee 4
Desanto 16
Murin 17
Lugo 2
Young 9
Marinelli 7
Bowman N/A (not enough matches)
Wilcke 11
Warner 2
Stoll 13

Just to compare here is Penn St individual rankings

Schnupp 40
RBY 29
Lee 34
Berge 38
Nolf 21
Joseph 25
Hall 5
Rasheed 26
Nickal 22
Cassar 7

Very interesting, however I don’t know if you can put much into these strength of schedule numbers. If you are the number 1 guy, you are automatically penalized because all of your opponents are below you and it will hurt your average. Plus I don’t buy Nolf’s SOS number, hasn’t he gone up against like 6 or7/top10 guys? So if you are say #4 or #5 guy but wrestled the top 3 and a few other top 10 guys your average is going to be higher and you wrestled basically the same guys as Nolf.(young/Berger). Just interesting to me how low the PSU guys SOS seems to be maybe more so skewed by Kent/Bucknell/scuffle guys than anything. Thanks for posting this breakdown.

 

[RoarLions1]

Why is Micah Jordan maxed out at #3 at 149?

Don't believe he can get by Ashnault or Kolodzik. I'll give you Kolodzik, and make it #2.

 

[jack66]

Illinois 1
Lehigh 2
Northwestern 3
Nebraska 4
Minnesota 5

The thing about SOS, as soon as you knock off a ranked team your SOS goes down since that team will then drop in the rankings.

Illinois has done a great job protecting the SOS by going 2-7,

Very interesting, however I don’t know if you can put much into these strength of schedule numbers. If you are the number 1 guy, you are automatically penalized because all of your opponents are below you and it will hurt your average. Plus I don’t buy Nolf’s SOS number, hasn’t he gone up against like 6 or7/top10 guys? So if you are say #4 or #5 guy but wrestled the top 3 and a few other top 10 guys your average is going to be higher and you wrestled basically the same guys as Nolf.(young/Berger). Just interesting to me how low the PSU guys SOS seems to be maybe more so skewed by Kent/Bucknell/scuffle guys than anything. Thanks for posting this breakdown.

Yeah, too bad Nolf beat Berger, Deakin, Pantaleo and Hayes. If he had lost to all 4 he would likely have the #1 SOS.