Michigan

NittanyChris

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As much as Iowa fans and nervous PSU fans would like to protest, Iowa is not winning a title this year, barring unforeseen injuries on PSU and Michigan (knock on wood).

That said, let’s look at the Michigan dual coming up in 2.5 weeks. Just for fun. Should be a barn burner!

25 - UM by Dec - this one should be low scoring and close, but Nicky Push-ups should prevail. UM leads 3-0.
33 - PSU by Dec - Ragusin is improved, but RBY wins by 4-5 points in a controlled match. Tied up, 3-3.
41 - PSU by Dec - Some might view this as a toss up, but I favor the returning champ, especially following a long folk style layoff for Micic. PSU leads 6-3.
49 - Tossup - I’ve always thought Storr a bit overrated. I lean Beau to win, but to be fair, it’s a toss up. Still PSU 6-3.
57 - UM by Dec. Lewan beats Negrón or anyone we put out there. Tied up at 6.
65 - UM by Dec - Cam Amine is tough, but Edsell keeps it non-bonus. UM leads 9-6.
74 - PSU by Dec - Carter by 2-3 over Massa. Tied up 9-9.
84 - Toss up - I favor Brooks, and I think he wins, but have to take off my fan glasses for a moment. M Amine is at a better weight for him. This could go either way. Still tied 9-9.
97 - PSU by Dec. I nearly went Major here. Dean by 6 or 7. PSU leads 12-9.
HW - UM by Dec - a healthy Kerk closes the gap but it’s not enough. Tied again at 12.

So it’s tied at 12 with two toss ups left to be decided. Great, dramatic stuff!

Thoughts?
 

PSUeng

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Feb 5, 2003
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As much as Iowa fans and nervous PSU fans would like to protest, Iowa is not winning a title this year, barring unforeseen injuries on PSU and Michigan (knock on wood).

That said, let’s look at the Michigan dual coming up in 2.5 weeks. Just for fun. Should be a barn burner!

25 - UM by Dec - this one should be low scoring and close, but Nicky Push-ups should prevail. UM leads 3-0.
33 - PSU by Dec - Ragusin is improved, but RBY wins by 4-5 points in a controlled match. Tied up, 3-3.
41 - PSU by Dec - Some might view this as a toss up, but I favor the returning champ, especially following a long folk style layoff for Micic. PSU leads 6-3.
49 - Tossup - I’ve always thought Storr a bit overrated. I lean Beau to win, but to be fair, it’s a toss up. Still PSU 6-3.
57 - UM by Dec. Lewan beats Negrón or anyone we put out there. Tied up at 6.
65 - UM by Dec - Cam Amine is tough, but Edsell keeps it non-bonus. UM leads 9-6.
74 - PSU by Dec - Carter by 2-3 over Massa. Tied up 9-9.
84 - Toss up - I favor Brooks, and I think he wins, but have to take off my fan glasses for a moment. M Amine is at a better weight for him. This could go either way. Still tied 9-9.
97 - PSU by Dec. I nearly went Major here. Dean by 6 or 7. PSU leads 12-9.
HW - UM by Dec - a healthy Kerk closes the gap but it’s not enough. Tied again at 12.

So it’s tied at 12 with two toss ups left to be decided. Great, dramatic stuff!

Thoughts?
after the first 4 in your points should be 9-3 not 6-3
 
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AndEEss

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Cam Amine is a beatable wrestler. He's an AA because Alex Marinelli MFOR in the R12 last year. He lost to Julian Ramirez 9-6; Edsell lost 7-5.

Also, I thought I heard that Storr and Brucki are both hurt. We'll know a bit more about that after tonight. There's literally a red ambulance next to Storr's name on WrestleStat.

 

NittanyChris

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Cam Amine is a beatable wrestler. He's an AA because Alex Marinelli MFOR in the R12 last year. He lost to Julian Ramirez 9-6; Edsell lost 7-5.

Also, I thought I heard that Storr and Brucki are both hurt. We'll know a bit more about that after tonight. There's literally a red ambulance next to Storr's name on WrestleStat.

Didn’t know the injury news. Thanks for the update. As for Cam Amine, beatable, yes, but still a significant favorite against any of our 65s right now, IMO.
 

jack66

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Seems about right.

Until I see the 2022 version of Micic I definitely give Nick Lee the edge at 141. Up a weight and he hasn't wrestled Folk since March 2019.

Not only that, he's now 8 years out of high school. The Hawkeye old man disease could be setting in.
 
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NittanyChris

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I like our squad as much as anybody and I certainly enjoy the PSU/UM analysis. But is it a bit premature to announce Iowa isn’t winning the title?
I actually thought we were beating them with Spencer, and whether Ayala is an AA or not, it’s still a large drop off in points. Throw in Murin and Young’s disappointing performances this season, along with Eierman squeaking out 1 point wins in matches he should have won easily and, no, I don’t think it’s premature.
 
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jack66

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I like our squad as much as anybody and I certainly enjoy the PSU/UM analysis. But is it a bit premature to announce Iowa isn’t winning the title?

No doubt there are a few PSU fans overreacting to the Spencer news. I think once we get into the season and people get to see the team Iowa puts on the mat they will come to realize this year's NCAAs is too close to call.
 

GogglesPaizano

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Might Michigan consider throwing out Medley at 125 and Suriano at 133 for this dual? I could see where 'they' might think they have a shot at winning both. Of course this also brings in the possibility of them losing both as well. Risk, reward?

We should know a lot more about Hildy over the next two weeks, but he has been out of the game for nearly a year and it may take until March to get him back to an AA level.

Watching RBY v Suriano would be a treat.
 

jmadden1998

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I actually thought we were beating them with Spencer, and whether Ayala is an AA or not, it’s still a large drop off in points. Throw in Murin and Young’s disappointing performances this season, along with Eierman squeaking out 1 point wins in matches he should have won easily and, no, I don’t think it’s premature.
 
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RoarLions1

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Let's try not turn a Michigan thread into an Iowa discussion
There's a provocative mention in the first sentence of the OP's post, so it started at the very beginning of this thread.

I happen to think that today, given what we know, it's a two-and-a-half horse race, with PSU and Iowa still the top two, and Michigan with an outside shot. All of that could change in a split second if there are any more injuries -- which I hope there are not -- for any team.
 

NittanyChris

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A still recovering Kerk beat Parris in the offseason.
Freestyle, correct? Would you pick Kerk to beat him in the Dual? Certainly it could happen, but I think Parris is the favorite until, hopefully, Kerk supplies the data to refute that.
 
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slushhead

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A still recovering Kerk beat Parris in the offseason.
If one were to attempt to describe my feelings for Kerk’s prospects this season, it might be ‘restrained jubilation’.

George-Thrilled.jpg


I believe he beats Cass, and I’m cautiously optimistic he beats Parris, as well.
 

AndEEss

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Suriano has already certified at 125. So he'd have to weigh in at 125 in order to wrestle RBY at 133, if he wants to keep wrestling at 125.
 

LDandy

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I think we'll squeak one out, but Michigan's Lineup top to bottom is legit. The holes at 157 and 165, as much as we like to give our guys the benefit of the doubt, are still there. This will come down to getting bonus where we can and avoiding it elsewhere. Definitely a situation where we can lose the overall match count, but still potentially pull out the dual. RBY and Dean will definitely have to push the scoring, as guys we typically count on as major contributors in Nick, Carter, and Aaron will have their hands full.
 

RoarLions1

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Won't be long till we know more about Kerkvliet and his fortunes for the post-season. Among his opponents in the season's final five Big Ten duals (Jan. 21 through Feb. 6) are #2 Parris, #3 Cassioppi, #8 Orndorff and #16 Lance. Then he has to contend with the same cast, plus #1 Steveson and #7 Hillger at B1G's. That's a minefield. Without looking, I'm not sure any of our guys have a tougher schedule.

Not making prognostications here, but I will say this is a heck of an opportunity for young Mr. Kerkvliet to make a statement.
 

pish69

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NJ--The Shore
Bartlett wins and Brooks wins..I also have Kerk over Parris..

21-9 Good guys..I also think RBY majors Ragusin..so could be 22-9
 
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GogglesPaizano

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What do people think about Bartlett vs Storr (if healthy)?

I think Beau can keep it close with anyone. That said I am pretty much passing on predictions for him this season up at 149. I think his strategy to manage matches will push the defining moment to the third period most likely in neutral. I suspect he will beat a couple of top 10 guys and then go and lose to 10-20 ranked guys as well. I have my fingers crossed that he remains on an upward trajectory until March but we may not see the real deal until next year back down at 141 where he belongs.
 

AndEEss

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I think Storr is pretty similar to BB; he wins ugly matches.

That said, even if he IS healthy enough to go against PSU, if he's not rolling with a full set of lungs, BB will have a distinct advantage there.

Also, I think that BB is trending upwards at a good rate. He's going to start getting to his offense, earlier, as the season progresses.
 
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NoVa Lion

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Suriano has already certified at 125. So he'd have to weigh in at 125 in order to wrestle RBY at 133, if he wants to keep wrestling at 125.
Not quite true. He can weigh in at more than 125 but then would need to follow the descent rules of only losing 1.5% per week. In any case UM has Ragusin at 133 so IMHO Suriano will stay at 125 for the whole season.
 
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AndEEss

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True. But if he weighs in at 130.0, he won't be able to wrestle at 125 for three weeks. Mid-February.
 

El-Jefe

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Won't be long till we know more about Kerkvliet and his fortunes for the post-season. Among his opponents in the season's final five Big Ten duals (Jan. 21 through Feb. 6) are #2 Parris, #3 Cassioppi, #8 Orndorff and #16 Lance. Then he has to contend with the same cast, plus #1 Steveson and #7 Hillger at B1G's. That's a minefield. Without looking, I'm not sure any of our guys have a tougher schedule.

Not making prognostications here, but I will say this is a heck of an opportunity for young Mr. Kerkvliet to make a statement.
In fairness, several of our guys ARE the tougher schedule.
 
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El-Jefe

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True. But if he weighs in at 130.0, he won't be able to wrestle at 125 for three weeks. Mid-February.
He could weigh in at 126.8 and drop to 125.0 for the Goofer match 1 week later.

However, Michigan faces Rutger only 2 days after PSU. Unless they plan to have him face Alvarez as well, he'll make 125 vs. Hildebrandt.
 
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jack66

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On a side note; Suriano is still not listed on Michigan's roster so it looks like we won't be seeing Nick vs Courtney tonight.
 

AndEEss

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On a side note; Suriano is still not listed on Michigan's roster so it looks like we won't be seeing Nick vs Courtney tonight.

He wasn't completely registered for classes, per Flo.
 

BOSCO2

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In fairness, several of our guys ARE the tougher schedule.
Back in the 8os I used to debate SOS with some Pitt football fans. If you broke down both teams' schedules, the only difference was that Pitt had to play us and we got to play them.
 

PSU Mike

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Not quite true. He can weigh in at more than 125 but then would need to follow the descent rules of only losing 1.5% per week. In any case UM has Ragusin at 133 so IMHO Suriano will stay at 125 for the whole season.
Yes. And I also think he can’t wrestle at 141 (2 classes up) at any time during the season and then go 125. Not like he ever would.
 

AndEEss

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If you guys have Flo, watch the Blockhus vs Storr match from CKLV.

Storr will be trotting out with a Marinelli-style and sized knee brace, if at all.