It was a signature win in that it was the first bowl game while under heavy sanctions and it was a very close victory (went to OT). Any bowl game win over a P5 win in overtime is a signature win.
Close games under CJF (historical perspective)
- Thread starter PSU2UNC
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Here's how i see it. When we win a close game i'm looking at whether we were SUPPOSED to win. If we were, then we did our job. Winning close games we were favored to win means nadda... winning close games we weren't is something else. Can't recall wisky... do know we were fav'd vs aubrey.
Not that I’m disagreeing with what you wrote, but for teams that have come up short a couple times without winning it all, isn’t this the nature of the beast?
tOSU under Cooper, Oregon in their run 10+/- years ago, UGA before this year, OU after their ‘00 title.
If little is expected, the losses are less memorable.
UM will be favored but Iowa makes games ugly and Michigan isn't some dominant team. They've played close games against teams that are worse than Iowa.
Yep. I think Nebraska has lost something like 9 straight 1 score games (and like 14/23 games were 1 score or less IIRC??).
I don’t think anyone here thinks Nebraska is ‘on the verge’ of greatness or not really that bad because of close losses.
Amazing what one season can do for perspective. After '19 and '20, Harbaugh was an afterthought and surprisingly wasn't fired. Recruiting was down.
Now it's all turned on it's head.
Kudos to Harbaugh. I don't foresee Iowa winning in Indy, but they are built to keep it close. Of course, nobody knows how they will play after getting the Buckeye monkey off their back. This isn't a Saban led team. They could come out flat.
Now it's all turned on it's head.
Kudos to Harbaugh. I don't foresee Iowa winning in Indy, but they are built to keep it close. Of course, nobody knows how they will play after getting the Buckeye monkey off their back. This isn't a Saban led team. They could come out flat.
I think you missed my larger point here (more on that below) but unless I am interpreting the divisional tiebreaker rules but if OSU beat PSU, PSU beat UM and UM beat OSU (which is what happened in my scenario with 4 plays) then all three teams are tied atop the East. The only differences in any of the tiebreakers are head to head and non-conference winning percentage. I think OOC win % eliminates OSU (their loss to Oregon) and then head to head, PSU goes over Michigan.
However, even if I am wrong about that (and this was all hypothetical anyway), my larger point is that PSU was much closer to their goals this year than you would think based on everyone's "sky is falling" comments here.
Whether it is "4 plays from being 11-1 and being in contention for playoff bid and definitely in NY6 bowl" or "6 plays from being 12-0 and going to Big Ten Championship game" that is FAR FAR better than getting blown out in 3 of our 5 losses and just not being competitive.
A couple of years ago, I was firmly in Franklin's corner. Now, he has lost me. He is a great recruiter, a great speaker, and a great representative of the university. Unfortunately, he is a lousy game day coach. If there are examples of him being a good game day coach, I would love to hear them
Great data. It would be interesting to see data for other ~Top 15 programs over the same period.
I fully agree that there is an element of luck involved, but if luck was the predominant factor, then over time, most teams would see similar data to what you have compiled above. I don't think that is what we would see.
My sense is that gameday coaching (ie scheme, play-calling, clock mgmt, etc) comes into play more than luck, in games like this. For the sake of making the point, let's say that game-day coaching can generally provide a 7 point swing (O or D, etc) or something in that neighborhood, which I don't think is that crazy. Run your data set against that assumption and things look way different. (I've made the comparison before, but I think Florida, under Steve Spurrier, might look similar to Franklin. Loads of talent, but UF generally got beat by teams of similar talent. Bowden certainly outcoached him annually, and Spurrier was exposed in the NFL where there is great parity in talent.)
And before anyone attacks me on the assumption, I don't think this is crazy. It is generally assumed that playing at home is about a 7pt advantage so there are externalities that affect results. Regarding coaching, let me use the NFL to illustrate becuase there is more parity in talent and scheduling than CFB. Some coaches perform better than others. Lots of variables for sure, but at least some of that performance has to be in-game management. If it wasn't, then the coach wouldn't need to be on the sideline, actively participating in decisions. To put it another way, if all coaches are equal, and there is no WAR, then coaches wouldn't command many millions in compensation becuase there would be a much bigger supply of candidates available to fill the 32 available positions. So, if in-game coaching affects results in the NFL, then is certainly does in CFB as well.
So when you say, "In terms of one score games lost, Franklin has been pretty consistent (post-sanctions, non-covid) of having his teams in striking distance of winning every game," I think it is fair to examine why Franklin-coached teams seem to fall just short against opponents of similar talent, more than they win, or why Franklin coached teams don't seem to put an opponent away when they have the chance late in a game (ie get one first down and the game is over, vs 3-&-out and needing defensive heroics to hold on).
IMHO, Franklin excels at all of the things that make a CFB coach special (recruiting, politicking, etc) except actual coaching. At $6M+ a year, is it fair to ask him to be better at executing a game plan and making crucial decisions? Is this something that can be learned, or has he reached his ceiling? These are real questions because it's obvious to anyone watching that PSU football today, isn't performing relative to their talent level in the same way that PSU teams did under JVP or even BOB. This isn't personal. I generally like Franklin, but I think it's a fair and honest assessment. JVP didn't lose many games he was supposed to win, and won a lot of games he was supposed to lose. He also performed very well against teams of similar talent. In short, he didn't get out-coached very often.
They may be built to keep it close, but when we played them, if Clifford doesn't go down, I think we beat them handily. And that's why it didn't shock me when they got clobbered.
Agreed.
Iowa is completely opportunistic this year. 4+ turnovers and they might win by 3 over Michigan. Even keel and Michigan probably wins by 2 TDs.
You make some good points and I'll follow up with some points of my own.
1) My point wasn't to say that Franklin is perfect (no coach is) only to point out that PSU isn't getting outclassed in many (any?) games while playing in arguably the toughest division in P5. You can certainly make the argument that PSU should be winning more close games, but I don't think it is realistic to think PSU should win all close games (especially when those games are against top 25 opponents on the road).
2) Many people say Franklin isn't a good game day coach. I have a hard time reconciling that with what I've observed on the field. During games Franklin is in charge of timeouts, "unusual" decisions (going for it on 4th down, fakes, onside kicks, going for 2, etc) and working the refs. He also gives macroscale input (e.g. we should take a shot here or we need to grind some clock or don't go to prevent yet) to his coordinators. I think he does a reasonably good job (compared with other coaches) with all of those. For many of those decisions, there is no "right" answer. If it works, in hindsight it was a great call. If it doesn't, people criticize.
3) Game PLANNING might be another issue. I have no idea what the coaches and position group meetings are like during the week in terms of game planning, or to what extent Franklin is hands on with those. In many programs, the coordinators put together their plans based on film study and walk the HC through them for feedback/approval. In other words, if you didn't like that particular route tree or zone blitz, that's on the coordinators not on Franklin (I understand he has "CEO" oversight over everything, but I would hope he is not trying to micromanage every aspect of game planning)
Definitely agree, but it's also more frustrating as a fan which is why so many are adamant in blaming the coaches. Franklin is on the cusp and has been for a while now. IMO OL play and a star QB are the missing pieces. Of course now we also have a solid DC to replace too.
It is definitely frustrating but it is also better than one of the alternatives (blow outs).
I'd say we were on the cusp in 2016-17, but even the 2019 team showed a drop from those earlier teams. 11-2 just the same, but didn't really beat any great teams, and didn't look dominant by any means in games vs. the likes of Iowa, Michigan, Memphis, etc.
Since Barkley left, we've been 7-12 against Big Ten teams with a winning record. 6-5 in 2018-19, and 1-7 in 2020-21. We generally beat the teams we're supposed to -- the bad ones -- but consistently struggle against good ones. Not just the top-10 teams, vs. whom we're notoriously bad. But we struggle against winning teams in general.
I think we're farther away from that cusp than we all thought. Warning signs were there in 2018 and 2019, but they've since been blown wide open for all to see.
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Good data, but it goes both ways. We were very fortunate / lucky to beat Wisconsin and Auburn.
Winning teams MAKE plays…that is the difference…Penn State used to be known for winning the close ones…now we are known for “finding a way to lose.” Common denominator? Who has set this narrative in place over 8 years? One year can be an outlier…but eventually patterns present themselves. 8 years is long enough…and things (peaked in 2016) are getting worse.
Missed a real opportunity to change course and direction. But the University is devoid of leaders. The AD, the President? Yep…known for years…box check and puppet “ leaders.” And sadly, though there was once hope that Franklin was the exception, it can now be safely said that he is a byproduct of the two aforementioned incompetents.
Exactly. When you look at Franklin look at his record in key games agsinst O$U scUM, MSU, B10 championship and bowl games since 2016 and he has a losing record overall.
O$U 1-5
scUM and MSU 3-3
B10 championship 1-0
Bowls 2-2
7-10
Clearly it is O$U driving this lousy win % but he should have a better record against MSU.
More maddening is that he should be above .500 but his teams blew very winnable games.
2016 Rose Bowl
2017 O$U, MSU
2018 O$U, MSU, KY
2021 scUM, MSU
IF he was able to just convert 4 of these games to wins he would turn a piss poor 7-10 to a very respectable 11-6 and the whining would be less loud.
You can't cherry pick close plays that went agsinst PSU then ignore stuff that goes our way. For example, if the scoop and score does not happen against O$U how do we know that they don't hit a couple TDs in the red zone or at least one when they settled for FGs. Against scUM we could have missed one of the 4th down conversions on our tying drive. Wisky doesn't fumble or throw a pick. On and on.
I agree with your first sentence. I think the psychology of this is that you are more affected by the close losses than the close wins. As I pointed out above, PSU won 2 of 6 one score games. That's not great but is close enough to 50% that it seems like a statistically reasonable outcome. In other words, I would expect teams to win half of their close games and lose half (over the long term). It is unreasonable to think that any team will win every close game.
Exactly. Sometimes we just need to take a step back and remove the blue and white glasses.
If the accepted argument now is “hey, we play close games and are only 4 plays away from 11-1” then you have to accept that PSU is also only 2 plays away from being 5-7.
And if playing close games is now the indicator for being on the cusp of a breakthrough, then Nebraska must be on the verge of reaching greatness. No one has lost more 1 score games then them.
Is anyone touting Nebraska as being close to a top tier team? Hell, even the children of the corn in Lincoln aren’t saying that.
Other than Illinois (which I agree was a bad loss) all of our one score games were against top 25 teams.Exactly. Sometimes we just need to take a step back and remove the blue and white glasses.
If the accepted argument now is “hey, we play close games and are only 4 plays away from 11-1” then you have to accept that PSU is also only 2 plays away from being 5-7.
And if playing close games is now the indicator for being on the cusp of a breakthrough, then Nebraska must be on the verge of reaching greatness. No one has lost more 1 score games then them.
Is anyone touting Nebraska as being close to a top tier team? Hell, even the children of the corn in Lincoln aren’t saying that.
I hear ya but to me that doesn’t mean much. There are a lot of very average teams ranked in the top 25.
Franklin was robbed of a signature win in 2014 against Ohio State as the crooked BIG did all it could to protect their lone shot at the playoffs and beloved cash cow.
Refs award two ridiculous calls to OSU
Ten of Ohio State's first-half points came after these two mis-calls.
www.sbnation.com
I just want to point out, and I am not sure if it has been pointed out already because I didn't read every post, but really, the difference in so many of our losses to OSU in particular is recruiting.
Take Justin Fields as an example. Had we kept him and or had he not went to OSU, we beat them. We most likely don't lose to Minnesota and we go on to the playoffs.
This isn't to say that the loss this year to Illinois is excusable, but again, just a few more high level players gets us that win. This year, if we keep this class together, is the best class since 2018. You need to string together several classes like that to really be elite.
It took the boy 10 years to win it all and that is without sanctions and in a turd conference.
This isn't to make excuses for the terrible play-calling and clock management we have witnessed in the past and you can only hope someone learns from their mistakes, I have yet to see that so far, but I honestly feel our trajectory is up, not down. We will get there.
And lastly there are those who say they think next year is a rebuilding year. I think the opposite, I think next year is the year.
Take Justin Fields as an example. Had we kept him and or had he not went to OSU, we beat them. We most likely don't lose to Minnesota and we go on to the playoffs.
This isn't to say that the loss this year to Illinois is excusable, but again, just a few more high level players gets us that win. This year, if we keep this class together, is the best class since 2018. You need to string together several classes like that to really be elite.
It took the boy 10 years to win it all and that is without sanctions and in a turd conference.
This isn't to make excuses for the terrible play-calling and clock management we have witnessed in the past and you can only hope someone learns from their mistakes, I have yet to see that so far, but I honestly feel our trajectory is up, not down. We will get there.
And lastly there are those who say they think next year is a rebuilding year. I think the opposite, I think next year is the year.
Totally agree. But at least the Illinois game should not have been close.
I would agree with that pending on who the close games are against. Close to 50 percent against top or high tier opponents is respectable. But include lower tier teams that PSU should comfortably win but don't, the 50 percent close game wins loses its luster.
If one is going to cherry pick records vs certain opponents, I'd at least like Wisconsin and Iowa added to it. Particularly if the time frame is "since '16" and one of the opponents included is Sparty, who has been less competitive overall since '16 than Wisconsin and Iowa (who we have played just as much).
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