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Close games under CJF (historical perspective)

PSU2UNC

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Feb 9, 2016
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As others have pointed out PSU has lost their five games by a total of 22 points (4,2,9,4,3). All but one of those is obviously one score.

I’m just as frustrated with this season as everyone else, but I don’t think (despite all the specific criticisms that can be made) that PSU is THAT far away.

In all of those one score games you can point to a singular play that, if made, PSU wins.

So I would argue that PSU is four PLAYS away from being in the Big Ten Championship game this coming weekend. FOUR PLAYS.

I fully agreed that championship teams make those singular plays that win those games, but would also postulate that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck?) involved in college football and sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way.

But I would also argue that it is much, much better to be one play away from a win than being blown out.

Here is some historical perspective.

Number of games lost by more than one score

2021 1

2020 3

2019 1

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 4

2014 2





Number of games lost by 14+

2021 0

2020 2

2019 0

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 3

2014 2



In terms of one score games lost, Franklin has been pretty consistent (post-sanctions, non-covid) of having his teams in striking distance of winning every game.

Just some actual data/food for thought.
 
As others have pointed out PSU has lost their five games by a total of 22 points (4,2,9,4,3). All but one of those is obviously one score.

I’m just as frustrated with this season as everyone else, but I don’t think (despite all the specific criticisms that can be made) that PSU is THAT far away.

In all of those one score games you can point to a singular play that, if made, PSU wins.

So I would argue that PSU is four PLAYS away from being in the Big Ten Championship game this coming weekend. FOUR PLAYS.

I fully agreed that championship teams make those singular plays that win those games, but would also postulate that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck?) involved in college football and sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way.

But I would also argue that it is much, much better to be one play away from a win than being blown out.

Here is some historical perspective.

Number of games lost by more than one score

2021 1

2020 3

2019 1

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 4

2014 2





Number of games lost by 14+

2021 0

2020 2

2019 0

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 3

2014 2



In terms of one score games lost, Franklin has been pretty consistent (post-sanctions, non-covid) of having his teams in striking distance of winning every game.

Just some actual data/food for thought.

That's a thoughtful and well-researched post, but the thread that connects so many of those close and very winnable games that you document, going back to the 2016 Rose Bowl right up to this season, is the inability to make plays, either on offense or defense, at critical times in the 4th quarter.

Some teams have signature wins. Penn State under Franklin has a bunch of signature losses. I mean, at this point the pattern is pretty well established and hard to deny.

Personally, I'd rather lose a game by 14 or more due to being outplayed by a superior team than choke in big games against good teams where the chance to win was there but frittered away late because you couldn't hold a lead or get a stop or make a 1st down.

I say none of this as a Franklin-basher, by the way. On the contrary, if you check the history here, you'll typically find me defending the guy. But facts are stubborn things, and the time has come to face some of them.
 
That's a thoughtful and well-researched post, but the thread that connects so many of those close and very winnable games that you document, going back to the 2016 Rose Bowl right up to this season, is the inability to make plays, either on offense or defense, at critical times in the 4th quarter.

Some teams have signature wins. Penn State under Franklin has a bunch of signature losses. I mean, at this point the pattern is pretty well established and hard to deny.

Personally, I'd rather lose a game by 14 or more due to being outplayed by a superior team than choke in big games against good teams where the chance to win was there but frittered away late because you couldn't hold a lead or get a stop or make a 1st down.

I say none of this as a Franklin-basher, by the way. On the contrary, if you check the history here, you'll typically find me defending the guy. But facts are stubborn things, and the time has come to face some of them.
You are entitled to your opinion, but your third paragraph makes no sense to me. When you get blown out, it is clear that you are not in the same class as your opponent. At PSU that should NEVER happen. I would much rather lose a close game than get blown out.

I would argue that Franklin does have signature wins.

2014 Pinstripe Bowl against BC
2016 vs Minnesota
2016 vs OSU
2017 @ Iowa
2017 vs Michigan

Should I list more?
 
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As others have pointed out PSU has lost their five games by a total of 22 points (4,2,9,4,3). All but one of those is obviously one score.

I’m just as frustrated with this season as everyone else, but I don’t think (despite all the specific criticisms that can be made) that PSU is THAT far away.

In all of those one score games you can point to a singular play that, if made, PSU wins.

So I would argue that PSU is four PLAYS away from being in the Big Ten Championship game this coming weekend. FOUR PLAYS.

I fully agreed that championship teams make those singular plays that win those games, but would also postulate that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck?) involved in college football and sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way.

But I would also argue that it is much, much better to be one play away from a win than being blown out.

Here is some historical perspective.

Number of games lost by more than one score

2021 1

2020 3

2019 1

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 4

2014 2





Number of games lost by 14+

2021 0

2020 2

2019 0

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 3

2014 2



In terms of one score games lost, Franklin has been pretty consistent (post-sanctions, non-covid) of having his teams in striking distance of winning every game.

Just some actual data/food for thought.
And how many plays away from defeating us were Wisky and Auburn ? Cuts both ways.
 
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As others have pointed out PSU has lost their five games by a total of 22 points (4,2,9,4,3). All but one of those is obviously one score.

I’m just as frustrated with this season as everyone else, but I don’t think (despite all the specific criticisms that can be made) that PSU is THAT far away.

In all of those one score games you can point to a singular play that, if made, PSU wins.

So I would argue that PSU is four PLAYS away from being in the Big Ten Championship game this coming weekend. FOUR PLAYS.

I fully agreed that championship teams make those singular plays that win those games, but would also postulate that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck?) involved in college football and sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way.

But I would also argue that it is much, much better to be one play away from a win than being blown out.

Here is some historical perspective.

Number of games lost by more than one score

2021 1

2020 3

2019 1

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 4

2014 2





Number of games lost by 14+

2021 0

2020 2

2019 0

2018 1

2017 0

2016 1

2015 3

2014 2



In terms of one score games lost, Franklin has been pretty consistent (post-sanctions, non-covid) of having his teams in striking distance of winning every game.

Just some actual data/food for thought.
Good post.

I saw where Nebraska when 1-8 in the B1G. if you add up all of their win margins and all of their loss margins, then subtract the loss margins against the win margins you'd get zero.

In other words, they lost 8 games by a total of 49 points. They won their only game by 49 points.
 
People always like to point out the close losses that could have been wins yet ignore the close wins that could have been losses.
 
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And how many plays away from defeating us were Wisky and Auburn ? Cuts both ways.
Right...I think one can also argue that, and I'll use Sparty as an example, we lost by more than 3. That was the final margin but they played a defense that was a lot looser because they had a ten-point lead in the middle of the fourth quarter. The game score dictates the game strategy.

If you look at the stats, we got outplayed. It was a solid Sparty win despite the score. It really came down to four plays:
  • missed PSU field goal while Sparty made theirs
  • Lee Fumble
  • Lovett Fumble
  • 4th and 21 TD
 
And how many plays away from defeating us were Wisky and Auburn ? Cuts both ways.
It does. Let's say (for the sake of argument) each one score game is essentially a coin flip. They lost four and won two. That's within what I would consider normal randomness.

Now if you want to argue that PSU should have been blowing out Wisconsin and Auburn and Michigan and MSU so that they weren't in danger of losing due to coin flip, then that is a separate argument. I'm not sure it holds much water though...those are all top 25 teams, two of which were on the road.
 
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It does. Let's say (for the sake of argument) each one score game is essentially a coin flip. They lost four and won two. That's within what I would consider normal randomness.

Now if you want to argue that PSU should have been blowing out Wisconsin and Auburn and Michigan and MSU so that they weren't in danger of losing due to coin flip, then that is a separate argument. I'm not sure it holds much water though...those are all top 25 teams, two of which were on the road.
IMHO, PSU was soundly beaten by tOSU and UM. We were "in it" but really were outplayed almost the entire game. I'd also argue that Sparty was a "solid win" for Sparty. Again, a check of the stats shows this.

The only real 50/50 games were Iowa (because our QB got hurt) and ILL (because we decided to not show up). On the win side, I'd argue that we had a solid win against Auburn but the Wisconsin game was a tad better than 50/50.
 
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People always like to point out the close losses that could have been wins yet ignore the close wins that could have been losses.

Except that the people who bash Franklin make it seem like there are no close wins that could have been losses because the narrative is that Franklin is a bad coach who cant find a way to win close games.
 
Except that the people who bash Franklin make it seem like there are no close wins that could have been losses because the narrative is that Franklin is a bad coach who cant find a way to win close games.
True....but PSU shouldn't be having close games against teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois. We should be in the class of tOSU and UM. Especially because this was supposed to be our "up" year.
 
IMHO, PSU was soundly beaten by tOSU and UM. We were "in it" but really were outplayed almost the entire game. I'd also argue that Sparty was a "solid win" for Sparty. Again, a check of the stats shows this.

The only real 50/50 games were Iowa (because our QB got hurt) and ILL (because we decided to not show up). On the win side, I'd argue that we had a solid win against Auburn but the Wisconsin game was a tad better than 50/50.
I disagree with your first sentence (PSU outplayed UM for most of the game) but note I did not include OSU in my "coin flip game" scenario.

My big picture point is that PSU was in every game this year (even OSU). I would MUCH rather than have than losing by 3 scores and never having a chance. So yes, things could have gone better, but we are much closer than the "gloom and doomers" would have you believe AND things could be MUCH MUCH worse.
 
True....but PSU shouldn't be having close games against teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois. We should be in the class of tOSU and UM. Especially because this was supposed to be our "up" year.
Iowa and MSU are both pretty good this year. Not amazing, but pretty good. MSU beat UM and I wouldn't be shocked it Iowa lucks into beating UM on Saturday.
 
Iowa and MSU are both pretty good this year. Not amazing, but pretty good. MSU beat UM and I wouldn't be shocked it Iowa lucks into beating UM on Saturday.
I can live with a loss against a single inferior team that is having a good year. This year, we lost to Iowa, Michigan State AND ILL. And after several years, our record against Iowa and Sparty has to be close to 50%. With our recruiting, that shouldn't be happening. it should be the exception.
 
You are entitled to your opinion, but your third paragraph makes no sense to me. When you get blown out, it is clear that you are not in the same class as your opponent. At PSU that should NEVER happen. I would much rather lose a close game than get blown out.

I would argue that Franklin does have signature wins.

2014 Pinstripe Bowl against BC
2016 vs Minnesota
2016 vs OSU
2017 @ Iowa
2017 vs Michigan

Should I list more?
Wisconsin in the B1G title game
 
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True....but PSU shouldn't be having close games against teams like Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois. We should be in the class of tOSU and UM. Especially because this was supposed to be our "up" year.

A bunch of people thought this team was starting 2-2 so not sure what kind of up year it was.

Not sure wtf you're talking about with Michigan being in a class that's above close games against perceived lesser competition. Unpacking this a bit. Harbaugh has a losing record against Michigan State and is .500 (1-1) against Iowa. The loss being against an unranked Iowa team and the win being 7 points.

I'm going to define close as single score wins: Harbaugh has close wins against the following:
Rutgers (2021, 2020)
Nebraska (2021)
US (2021)
Iowa (2019)
Army(2019
)
Notre Dame (2018)
Northwestern (2018)
Indiana (2017, 2015)

Wisconsin (2016)
Minnesota (2015)

Give me a break.
 
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A bunch of people thought this team was starting 2-2 so not sure what kind of up year it was.

Not sure wtf you're talking about with Michigan being in a class that's above close games against perceived lesser competition. Unpacking this a bit. Harbaugh has a losing record against Michigan State and is .500 against Iowa. The loss being against an unranked Iowa team.

I'm going to define close as single score wins: The Harbaugh has close wins against the following:
Rutgers (2021, 2020)
Nebraska (2021)
US (2021)
Iowa (2019)
Army(2019
)
Notre Dame (2018)
Northwestern (2018)
Indiana (2017, 2015)

Wisconsin (2016)
Minnesota (2015)

Give me a break.
single scores mean very little to me if anyone is including Sparty. We lost by 10. They gave us the last TD and we tried an onside kick.

But from my standpoint, we get much stronger classes than any team in the B1G except tOSU and Michigan. yet, we struggle to stay abreast of Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State. That tells me the problem is elsewhere
  • Recruiting the wrong kids even though the media has them highly rated
  • Not developing them
  • Coaching
One of those three, at least, must be correct.
 
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single scores mean very little to me if anyone is including Sparty. We lost by 10. They gave us the last TD and we tried an onside kick.

But from my standpoint, we get much stronger classes than any team in the B1G except tOSU and Michigan. yet, we struggle to stay abreast of Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State. That tells me the problem is elsewhere
  • Recruiting the wrong kids even though the media has them highly rated
  • Not developing them
  • Coaching
One of those three, at least, must be correct.

Tell me how you want to define close. Point was Michigan hasn't been some beacon on the hill. You use MSU as a school we shouldn't be having close games with because we should aspire to Michigan's level, yet Harbaugh has a losing record against them. Shouldn't have close games with Iowa. Harbaugh is 1-1 with the loss being to an unranked Iowa team and the win being a 7 point win where they were shutout after the first quarter.

The Rutgers game this year Michigan was shutout in the second half and Rutgers actually managed to get into the red zone with a chance to tie late in the 4th. The Rutgers Michigan game last year went to 3 overtimes.

Army took them to OT in 2019.
Indiana took them to OT in 2017 and 2015.
Northwestern blew a 17-0 lead and Michigan didn't take the lead until their second to last possession.
Nebraska this year was a game winning fg with under 2:00 to play.
Minnesota in 2015 ended in a goal line stand at the 1 when the gophers could have kicked a fg to play for OT.

Which of these would you like to exclude from Michigan's close game resume?
 
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You are entitled to your opinion, but your third paragraph makes no sense to me. When you get blown out, it is clear that you are not in the same class as your opponent. At PSU that should NEVER happen. I would much rather lose a close game than get blown out.

I would argue that Franklin does have signature wins.

2014 Pinstripe Bowl against BC
2016 vs Minnesota
2016 vs OSU
2017 @ Iowa
2017 vs Michigan

Should I list more?

I mean, with all respect, when you have to fall back on the freakin' Pinstripe Bowl as a signature win, you've lost the argument.

That said, absolutely, I think your 2016 versus Ohio State and 2017 versus Iowa could qualify as signature wins. The problem is, even if you count those in that category, the signature losses during the last five years are more. A lot more. Hell, there were arguably three this year alone...and that's not even counting Ohio State, which was actually a winnable game even in the 4th quarter.

Re my 3rd paragraph that you reference, emotionally (for me) it's easier to take a loss that you know you should have lost than a loss against a top-flight team that you could have and should have won except for the inability to make critical plays late in the game.
 
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Tell me how you want to define close. Point was Michigan hasn't been some beacon on the hill. You use MSU as a school we shouldn't be having close games with because we should aspire to Michigan's level, yet Harbaugh has a losing record against them. Shouldn't have close games with Iowa. Harbaugh is 1-1 with the loss being to an unranked Iowa team and the win being a 7 point win where they were shutout after the first quarter.

The Rutgers game this year they were shutout in the first half and Rutgers actually managed to get into the red zone with a chance to tie late in the 4th. The Rutgers Michigan game last year went to 3 overtimes.
you are getting all wound up on the sauce. I don't aspire to be Michigan, a team that gets great recruits but fails to compete for a B1G championship except once every 20 years. But that is who we are.

I aspire to be competitive with tOSU. They don't lose to Iowa, Michigan State or Ill.

It starts with recruiting. If you get the kids you want, it is about development. And if you get the kids and develop them, it is about in-season coaching.

We are out recruiting everyone, by a wide margin, except tOSU and Michigan year in and year out. So the problem is development or coaching. UM has been coaching. They have been good this year, I'll give them that. Can they sustain? We'll see.
 
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you are getting all wound up on the sauce. I don't aspire to be Michigan, a team that gets great recruits but fails to compete for a B1G championship except once every 20 years. But that is who we are.

I aspire to be competitive with tOSU. They don't lose to Iowa, Michigan State or Ill.

It starts with recruiting. If you get the kids you want, it is about development. And if you get the kids and develop them, it is about in-season coaching.

We are out recruiting everyone, by a wide margin, except tOSU and Michigan year in and year out. So the problem is development or coaching. UM has been coaching. They have been good this year, I'll give them that. Can they sustain? We'll see.

You're the one who said "We should be in the class of tOSU and UM." not me. Should have just stuck to saying OSU.

Amazing we've won it 3 times in that span when we've only competed for it once.
 
You're the one who said "We should be in the class of tOSU and UM." not me. Should have just stuck to saying OSU.

Amazing we've won it 3 times in that span when we've only competed for it once.
This is why I rarely engage with you. You are way too argumentative and pedantic.
 
This is why I rarely engage with you. You are way too argumentative and pedantic.

You say we need to be in the class with OSU and UM and then when I call you out on it backtrack and say you really meant OSU. Grow up.

"We suck. UM never plays close games against teams. Whoops jk just talking OSU. Sounded better when I could bitch about multiple programs that are better than us instead of just the one that everyone in the conference is lagging behind"
 
back on ignore you go. I no longer have time for this kind of foolishness.

Thank god. Sorry you needed helping being reminded you were only talking about OSU and not UM as well. I get how confusing it can be to remember what you wrote 10 minutes ago half way up the page.
 
You raise valid points.

One question, though. How could we be 4 plays from the Big Ten championship when we lost 5 games? And we lost to OSU by multiple scores -- winning that game would require at least 2 critical plays going another way.

Not seeing the math there. And as others mentioned, we won a few games by a play or two that -- if reversed -- could have spelled our demise.

I assume one of those plays is Clifford going down, which saves us from two losses?

Ultimately, we are what our record says we are. We are one of the better 7-5 teams out there. No doubt. But we're still 7-5.
 
A bunch of people thought this team was starting 2-2 so not sure what kind of up year it was.

Not sure wtf you're talking about with Michigan being in a class that's above close games against perceived lesser competition. Unpacking this a bit. Harbaugh has a losing record against Michigan State and is .500 (1-1) against Iowa. The loss being against an unranked Iowa team and the win being 7 points.

I'm going to define close as single score wins: Harbaugh has close wins against the following:
Rutgers (2021, 2020)
Nebraska (2021)
US (2021)
Iowa (2019)
Army(2019
)
Notre Dame (2018)
Northwestern (2018)
Indiana (2017, 2015)

Wisconsin (2016)
Minnesota (2015)

Give me a break.
IMO, this is pretty much the ONLY year JH can hang his hat on... given the talent he's had, he's been a dismal coach. But this year, he's done it right and much as I hate doing it, I commend him (short leash on this guy due to his meh history).
 
IMO, this is pretty much the ONLY year JH can hang his hat on... given the talent he's had, he's been a dismal coach. But this year, he's done it right and much as I hate doing it, I commend him (short leash on this guy due to his meh history).

We aren't actually talking about Michigan, just OSU apparently. My mistake.

And still a chance Iowa messes it up for him, which would be the perfect outcome for this season.
 
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IMO, this is pretty much the ONLY year JH can hang his hat on... given the talent he's had, he's been a dismal coach. But this year, he's done it right and much as I hate doing it, I commend him (short leash on this guy due to his meh history).

In Harbaugh's defense (yuck), he was literally inches from the CFP in 2016.

That JT Barrett 4th down conversion in 2OT (which he got by perhaps an inch or two) set up the winning TD for OSU. Stop Barrett a few inches back, and Michigan wins the 2016 Big Ten and probably goes to the CFP.

Also would have deprived us of the 2016 conference title. how would our perception of CJF be different?

Amazing how a few inches can change perceptions.

(yes, they say that in the adult entertainment industry, too)
 
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In Harbaugh's defense (yuck), he was literally inches from the CFP in 2016.

That JT Barrett 4th down conversion in 2OT (which he got by perhaps an inch or two) set up the winning TD for OSU. Stop Barrett a few inches back, and Michigan wins the 2016 Big Ten and probably goes to the CFP.

Also would have deprived us of the 2016 conference title. how would our perception of CJF be different?

Amazing how a few inches can change perceptions.

(yes, they say that in the adult entertainment industry, too)
As always.. really good stuff.. thanx!
 
IMO, this is pretty much the ONLY year JH can hang his hat on... given the talent he's had, he's been a dismal coach. But this year, he's done it right and much as I hate doing it, I commend him (short leash on this guy due to his meh history).

lol. And yet he has a winning record against Franklin & more ten win seasons -and B10 East titles (in a shorter time frame)
 
lol. And yet he has a winning record against Franklin & more ten win seasons -and B10 East titles (in a shorter time frame)
inherited a much cleaner situation with much better talent. Has not coached well... period.
 
lol. And yet he has a winning record against Franklin & more ten win seasons -and B10 East titles (in a shorter time frame)
Frankly, I'm scared to crap about what happens if he beats iowa and wins at least once in big brawl, and looks tough doing it.

Recruiting for um will be a sweet walk in the park. I'd kill to be in his shoes going after big game if he doesn't crap the bed vs iowa. I have them winning that 30-10. Remember, this is the same iowa team we were smoking before SC and company bit the dust. UM comes ready to play, it could get ugly fast.

This um team is playing very well and very tough in the trenches. Their play-calling the past few weeks has been superb, unpredictable, spot on. Everything is clicking for JH and if he finishes it off on top, look the f out. Hate saying it, but the eyes have it.

And i hate these guys more than osu... but it is what it is. Franklin needs to win and he needs to win BIG.
 
You are entitled to your opinion, but your third paragraph makes no sense to me. When you get blown out, it is clear that you are not in the same class as your opponent. At PSU that should NEVER happen. I would much rather lose a close game than get blown out.

I would argue that Franklin does have signature wins.

2014 Pinstripe Bowl against BC
2016 vs Minnesota
2016 vs OSU
2017 @ Iowa
2017 vs Michigan

Should I list more?
These are our signature wins during Franklin era? Pretty small stuff with the exception of 2016 O$U…how the mighty have fallen…
 
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As always.. really good stuff.. thanx!
Except it wasn't inches in the case of penn state. It was a pathetic loss to a 25 point underdog at home, a 9 point loss to Ohio state in which a terrible offensive line cost them the game, an injury to a starting quarterback at Iowa, also caused by an awful offensive line, a loss to Michigan that featured poor play calling at the end and a horrible fake fg, and once again an offensive line in the snow at Lansing that could not gain one yard when needed, not to mention a kicker who cannot kick extra points and was iced by his own coach lol.

It's the offensive line, is what I'm saying. Now if you want to call that "inches", then feel fine, I guess
 
Frankly, I'm scared to crap about what happens if he beats iowa and wins at least once in big brawl, and looks tough doing it.

Recruiting for um will be a sweet walk in the park. I'd kill to be in his shoes going after big game if he doesn't crap the bed vs iowa. I have them winning that 30-10. Remember, this is the same iowa team we were smoking before SC and company bit the dust. UM comes ready to play, it could get ugly fast.

This um team is playing very well and very tough in the trenches. Their play-calling the past few weeks has been superb, unpredictable, spot on. Everything is clicking for JH and if he finishes it off on top, look the f out. Hate saying it, but the eyes have it.

And i hate these guys more than osu... but it is what it is. Franklin needs to win and he needs to win BIG.
Agreed
 
Except it wasn't inches in the case of penn state. It was a pathetic loss to a 25 point underdog at home, a 9 point loss to Ohio state in which a terrible offensive line cost them the game, an injury to a starting quarterback at Iowa, also caused by an awful offensive line, a loss to Michigan that featured poor play calling at the end and a horrible fake fg, and once again an offensive line in the snow at Lansing that could not gain one yard when needed, not to mention a kicker who cannot kick extra points and was iced by his own coach lol.

It's the offensive line, is what I'm saying. Now if you want to call that "inches", then feel fine, I guess
in the instance the op was referencing.. it WAS inches. but... yes to all the above
 
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