After spring game, early predictions for season

[AWS1022]

If we lose this year then your hypothetical is very unlikely. The recruiting momentum will swing and I imagine the majority of the fanbase will not allow another year or two for Franklin to get his system in place.

We lose to Pitt we are coach hunting immediately and I won't settle for an unproven coach. We have the money.

Bullsh!t. Franklin is not going to get fired for losing one non-conference game. And as far as recruiting, one game is not going to vault Pitt that high in recruiting. One win is not going to change all the problems Pitt has recruiting...no field, no fan support, crappy campus, crappy location, etc.

 

[Lionrevival]

Bullsh!t. Franklin is not going to get fired for losing one non-conference game. And as far as recruiting, one game is not going to vault Pitt that high in recruiting. One win is not going to change all the problems Pitt has recruiting...no field, no fan support, crappy campus, crappy location, etc.

Well then, I guess we have no reason to lose to them. You made the case. I agree. No excuse for losing to a team with the negatives you listed.

 

[21Guns]

Last year's team won 7 with an absolutely awful offense. So I don't think 8 wins is unreasonable if PSU manages to field just an average Big Ten offense. If they are better than average offensively, 9 wins is possible.

We know speed matters and the team has speed. There is NFL talent at receiver and running back.

But most important, experience is everything with college football. Godwin and Gesicki will be in their third years. McSorley's a new starter, but the guy is also a junior who has been around and had time to mature.

Barkley will be in his 2nd year as a starter and Robinson will be a redshirt freshman who knows the defense well. Polk and Thompkins will be in their second years.

And the line will have some guys who have played some football in the Big Ten and won't be so easily fooled by defensive stunts.

The line will have 4 guys who have been manhandled for 2 years.

Unless personnel changes are made, only Bates and possibly Nelson are going to be able to go out there and be assets.

 

[AWS1022]

Well then, I guess we have no reason to lose to them. You made the case. I agree. No excuse for losing to a team with the negatives you listed.

You've been given many reasons why we could lose to them, you just don't want to listen. Same way Bama lost to Ole Miss two years in a row. I guess Saban should be fired. Teams with more talent lose to teams with less talent all the time and it's not always about coaching. We have young talent and we play them early in the season, anything could happen.

 

[21Guns]

You've been given many reasons why we could lose to them, you just don't want to listen. Same way Bama lost to Ole Miss two years in a row. I guess Saban should be fired. Teams with more talent lose to teams with less talent all the time and it's not always about coaching. We have young talent and we play them early in the season, anything could happen.

I wish that the game was later in the season, as I believe Matt and Joe will have our correct personnel on the field after Franklin is forced to admit his favorites cannot play.

 

[Judge Smails]

there is no reason for us to not win nine games this season. We have a very favorable schedule, our recruiting classes the past few years have been really good, and we have one of the highest paid coaching crew in all of college football - translate, means we have really good coaches.

This is going to be a great year! Looking forward to traveling in to at least one or two games this season.

So after reading your comments below, and knowing what a big, HUGE, Penn State fan you are, what do you think of Penn State's start of every verbal having a Pitt offer? Right back to domination, right?? 7-1 on commonly offered players? Then Wade back on campus this weekend, 4th time in State College since Feb 27th. Verbal would be awesome. You think he pulls the trigger?


Lionrevival Prep
We just lost several commitments in the last few weeks and failed to replace with better players. After the Hudson and Hamlin debacle I feel quite justified and saying that Franklin is sinking the ship.

Lionrevival Prep
New I just wanted to say that if you analyze the PSU class vs the Pitt class I feel you guys edged us by a hair or two. Going head-to-head with Narduzzi is a very humbling experience.

 

[T J]

Last year's team won 7 with an absolutely awful offense. So I don't think 8 wins is unreasonable if PSU manages to field just an average Big Ten offense. If they are better than average offensively, 9 wins is possible.

We know speed matters and the team has speed. There is NFL talent at receiver and running back.

But most important, experience is everything with college football. Godwin and Gesicki will be in their third years. McSorley's a new starter, but the guy is also a junior who has been around and had time to mature.

Barkley will be in his 2nd year as a starter and Robinson will be a redshirt freshman who knows the defense well. Polk and Thompkins will be in their second years.

And the line will have some guys who have played some football in the Big Ten and won't be so easily fooled by defensive stunts.

Good points on the offense. We hope and expect significant improvements there.

Yet now the flip side is a concern. We had the top offense disrupting DE and solid DTs who often got double teamed. So, we will likely face higher scoring against the defense too.

Of course, the mix is the final outcome. Hopefully the talent on both sides and the talented newcomers will rise to the challenged and surprise some teams this season.

 

[PennState_one]

It's obvious I know, but I think this season will all come down to how well the team can handle the big moments/games. If the youth can handle it, then they're going to be OK, but if the games get too big for them, it will be tough. With that said, I think we can all agree that PSU has the talent to succeed in this system and surprise people.

The best defense is an efficient offense that can sustain drives more often than not. When that happens, the defense only has to be satisfactory, not necessarily elite. These kids were forced to think way to much with Donovan's "offense". The overall simplicity of the new "O" should make them faster. It's human nature to slow down when we have to think to much about a concept.

I'm not drinking the blue Kool-aid just yet, but the positive vibe is there for me based on what I believe JoMo is putting in place.

 

[PennState_one]

Last year's team won 7 with an absolutely awful offense. So I don't think 8 wins is unreasonable if PSU manages to field just an average Big Ten offense. If they are better than average offensively, 9 wins is possible.

We know speed matters and the team has speed. There is NFL talent at receiver and running back.

But most important, experience is everything with college football. Godwin and Gesicki will be in their third years. McSorley's a new starter, but the guy is also a junior who has been around and had time to mature.

Barkley will be in his 2nd year as a starter and Robinson will be a redshirt freshman who knows the defense well. Polk and Thompkins will be in their second years.

And the line will have some guys who have played some football in the Big Ten and won't be so easily fooled by defensive stunts.

Also, the line should have a fighting chance regardless of how good they are since the defense will be spread out. The spread option will limit a lot of the exotic blitz schemes that they got hammered by last year. The line "should" have a better idea of where the blitz will be coming from, especially if they show their hand and Moorhead changes it up on them.

 

[21Guns]

I cannot stress enough how important Gillikin is.

For the past two years we have lost 10 to 15 yards on every damn change of possession.

 

[PennState_one]

I cannot stress enough how important Gillikin is.

For the past two years we have lost 10 to 15 yards on every damn change of possession.

Absolutely huge

 

[ruready07]

Lionrevival:
You account for two factors for in your analysis - coaching and recruiting . But there is actually a 3rd factor - the team's personality. That includes everything from the psyche of your qb to the chemistry between the kicker/holder/snapper .
Too many moving parts in football.

 

[ruready07]

By the way, from watching your spring game , #4 is going to be your qb and he is better than hackenberg.

 

[LionsandBear]

I'm drinking the Kool-Aid a bit. I think 8 wins should be expected but I'm going with 9. The season will come down to 4 games which are UM, OSU, Iowa and MSU. I think we win at least 1 of those 4 games to get to 9 wins.

9-3 (6-3 B1G)

 

[NICNEM_PSU80]

I cannot stress enough how important Gillikin is.

For the past two years we have lost 10 to 15 yards on every damn change of possession.

Maybe not 10-15 yards but still significant yardage. If we are a little conservative and say 8 yards per punt then 5 punts yields the equivalent of 40 yards in a game. That is probably close to a touchdown on the score board in a mixture of PSU scoring more and the defense giving up less points. That may be 1 or 2 additional wins.

On that note if we sustain our drives better because of less QB sacks and positive yardage running the ball by the QB that's a big help as well. That may add another 25 yards a game. The question is how much more will the defense give up? I think the those two improvements offset the weakness of the defense in total yardage.

So it comes down to how much better our running backs are and our O-line in compensation for the fall off at QB? It seems to me that a health Barkley and his back ups will produce another 40 yards per game (Barkley runs for 1500 yards). And that is without any improvement by the O-line. I think we will get better production from the line from new coaching plus a better scheme. The better scheme may just compensate for little or no drop off in the passing game despite having a rookie QB.

This all assumes that the linebackers stay healthy and their backups do well to help keep the starters from getting hurt when exhausted. The LBs will be better this year than last helping out the fall off of the DL but not fully make up the differences.

What worries me is that Pitt may have a better O-line and D-line. The games are won in the trenches as they say. I think Moorehead's schemes will help in this regard but I wish I could say that I am more confident than I actually am.

We must beat Pitt. It is the pivotal game of the season. Us old timers can't have a loss here. We need to keep those wise a$$es down where they belong and beat them this year as the beginning to a 4-0 record in the series and remind them that they are a junior college when all is said and done.

If and once we beat Pitt, that will give us momentum and we will give the big 3 tough games. MSU and OSU are rebuilding and while they do that better than most they are still rebuilding. MI is on the rise and will be very tough in my opinion. With a little luck we can rise from an 8-4 season to a 9-3 season and hopefully a good win in a bowl game. But we have to beat Pitt!

 

[Judge Smails]

Well then, I guess we have no reason to lose to them. You made the case. I agree. No excuse for losing to a team with the negatives you listed.

Looks like you guys might be getting Toney

1. Lionrevival
   Kid is a stud. Seems like narduzzi is really punching us in the nuts.
   
   Good luck to Toney.
   
   1 Feb 2, 2016

 

[Woodpecker]

I've come to the conclusion with Lionrevival that it is often hard to tell which team he means with we/us and they/them. I think that he even has difficulty in keeping straight which board he's on and which ___revival persona he's pretending to be.

 

[21Guns]

Maybe not 10-15 yards but still significant yardage. If we are a little conservative and say 8 yards per punt then 5 punts yields the equivalent of 40 yards in a game. That is probably close to a touchdown on the score board in a mixture of PSU scoring more and the defense giving up less points. That may be 1 or 2 additional wins.

On that note if we sustain our drives better because of less QB sacks and positive yardage running the ball by the QB that's a big help as well. That may add another 25 yards a game. The question is how much more will the defense give up? I think the those two improvements offset the weakness of the defense in total yardage.

So it comes down to how much better our running backs are and our O-line in compensation for the fall off at QB? It seems to me that a health Barkley and his back ups will produce another 40 yards per game (Barkley runs for 1500 yards). And that is without any improvement by the O-line. I think we will get better production from the line from new coaching plus a better scheme. The better scheme may just compensate for little or no drop off in the passing game despite having a rookie QB.

This all assumes that the linebackers stay healthy and their backups do well to help keep the starters from getting hurt when exhausted. The LBs will be better this year than last helping out the fall off of the DL but not fully make up the differences.

What worries me is that Pitt may have a better O-line and D-line. The games are won in the trenches as they say. I think Moorehead's schemes will help in this regard but I wish I could say that I am more confident than I actually am.

We must beat Pitt. It is the pivotal game of the season. Us old timers can't have a loss here. We need to keep those wise a$$es down where they belong and beat them this year as the beginning to a 4-0 record in the series and remind them that they are a junior college when all is said and done.

If and once we beat Pitt, that will give us momentum and we will give the big 3 tough games. MSU and OSU are rebuilding and while they do that better than most they are still rebuilding. MI is on the rise and will be very tough in my opinion. With a little luck we can rise from an 8-4 season to a 9-3 season and hopefully a good win in a bowl game. But we have to beat Pitt!

No, not "maybe" anything.

10 to 15 yards, per damn possession. Every damn possession.

Our punting has been on a high school level.

Don't try to run out 8 paragraphs to change the point. We need Gillikin to be as good as advertised, or at MINIMUM to be better than those two kids we keep running out there, because neither one of them can punt on a college level.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

No, not "maybe" anything.

10 to 15 yards, per damn possession. Every damn possession.

Our punting has been on a high school level.

Don't try to run out 8 paragraphs to change the point. We need Gillikin to be as good as advertised, or at MINIMUM to be better than those two kids we keep running out there, because neither one of them can punt on a college level.

Was either one a scholarship recruit or were they both preferred walk-ons,? I don't think either was recruited via scholarship, but I really can't remember to be honest.

 

[21Guns]

Was either one a scholarship recruit or were they both preferred walk-ons,? I don't think either was recruited via scholarship, but I really can't remember to be honest.

I think both of them were walk ons.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

I wish that the game was later in the season, as I believe Matt and Joe will have our correct personnel on the field after Franklin is forced to admit his favorites cannot play.

Oh Good God ........ Just STFU

 

[21Guns]

Oh Good God ........ Just STFU

NEVER CHANGE, YOU ARE ADORABLE.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

I think both of them were walk ons.

In other words, thanks to the ILLEGITIMATE sanctions PSU has not had a starting Punter and Kicker that was brought on the roster via scholarship recruitment since 2013? Blake Gillikin and Alex Barbir will likely change that this year.....see where I'm going with this?

 

[21Guns]

In other words, thanks to the ILLEGITIMATE sanctions PSU has not had a starting Punter and Kicker that was brought on the roster via scholarship recruitment since 2013? Blake Gillikin and Alex Barbir will likely change that this year.....see where I'm going with this?

Again, there was no law put into place that said Bill O'Brien couldn't have recruited 5 offensive linemen, a punter, and a kicker.

He took all skill people, Defensive personnel, and defensive backs, and then the guy split after two years and left us high and dry.

And the two offensive linemen he ended up taking, neither one can play D1 football anyway.

 

[Karl Farbman]

In other words, thanks to the ILLEGITIMATE sanctions PSU has not had a starting Punter and Kicker that was brought on the roster via scholarship recruitment since 2013? Blake Gillikin and Alex Barbir will likely change that this year.....see where I'm going with this?

Was Ficken given a scholarship out of high school?

 

[21Guns]

Was Ficken given a scholarship out of high school?

Bill O'Brien knew damn well when he took the job that Sam Ficken was gone after 2014. He also knew that his punter was not a D1 punter either. He did nothing about either situation.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Was Ficken given a scholarship out of high school?

I believe Ficken was a scholarship recruit.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Was Ficken given a scholarship out of high school?

From this BSD Article:

James Franklin hasn't been shy about letting everyone know how important improving special teams is for Penn State, especially at the kicking positions. With the departure ofSam Ficken following the 2014 season, the Lions went through 2015 without a single scholarship specialist on the roster. With limited scholarships available and plenty of depth issues to address, using a scholarship on a kicker or punter was almost a luxury PSU could not afford at the time.

However, those needs seem to be addressed with the verbal commitments of Blake Gillikin at punter and Quinn Nordin at kicker. The former remains a solid member of the PSU Class of 2016, while the latter has spent plenty of time in Ann Arbor despite no public de-commitment from Penn State.

 

[Karl Farbman]

Bill O'Brien knew damn well when he took the job that Sam Ficken was gone after 2014. He also knew that his punter was not a D1 punter either. He did nothing about either situation.

I believe Ficken was a scholarship recruit.

So Franklin had a scholarship kicker for at least one year.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

Bill O'Brien knew damn well when he took the job that Sam Ficken was gone after 2014. He also knew that his punter was not a D1 punter either. He did nothing about either situation.

On a True/False test, given three guesses on each question, I'd expect you to score around 10% - - - - but I might be a little optimistic

Never change "21"..,....... NEVER!!!!!

 

[jake418]

I would say Penn State's talent will slowly begin to pass them this year. Last year, I felt the upper class talent on Penn State and Pitt's roster were fairly equal, but Penn State's Freshman and Sophomore's were much more talented. I don't agree that Pitt would have beaten Penn State last year. I think that game would have been a toss up. I think the changes made on the offensive side of the ball as well as the more talented roster creeping into the upper classes helps Penn State and gives them the edge. That being said, anything can happen in a Rivalry game and this game means everything to Pitt.

I think this team has the potential to turn the corner this year much like the 2005 team(I'm not saying 11 wins). I am simply saying some years things just begin to click and turn around when average seasons are predicted (See Iowa last year). Many thought Ferenz would be fired and instead he is in the B1G title game. I think this team has the potential to lose to any of Pitt, OSU, MSU, Mich, or IOWA, but for the first time in a long time I also think they have the potential to surprise 2 or 3 of them.

fair and reasonable post......I always find it somewhat amusing when people try to seriously predict future win totals with little to zero knowledge of the opposing teams "current" roster situation. Last year has very little to do with anything that will happen this year. The usual suspects will be tough as always because of a wealth of talent that will let them reload somewhat but even with that , they will not be the same teams as last year and in my opinion penn state will be a completely different animal this year. The only opposing team that i am fairly familiar with their current situation is pitt , due to family members and i think that game is going to be a blast. I am actually fairly optimistic about that game . I think pitt will play with alot of early emotion but that will wear off and then it will all come down to talent and playcalling. Looking from a psu perspective , I think pitts linebackers will struggle with the contain of barkley and mcsorley and i really don't see pitts corners being able to handle the psu receiving corp. I have alot of faith in Moorhead's play calling abilities and while mcsorley may be a first year starter he is in his 3rd year and has already more than held his own against a georgia defense with alot more playmakers than he will face at pitt. On the other side , peterman is a vet and has proved to be more than serviceable. The question will be whether or not he can find a receiver to replace boyd who was one of the best i have ever seen at getting to the ball and moving the chains. Boyd made their running game effective and with him gone i think some teams will be able to play a lot of man coverage and focus on the run. I think peterman will need some help and the question is will pitt have any playmakers at wr? As far as above comments about being thin at linebacker , yes they are depthwise , but the starting trio of bell, whartman white, and cabinda with bowen as an alternate is a fast , hard hitting group who will be aided by what is probably the best secondary in the JF era. If the offense is more productive and there is little reason to think that they won't be , then maybe D won't have to be perfect and Pry will be able to turn some guys loose and take some chances. The O line is deeper and JF's recruits are starting to show their presence (see 4star bates) coupled with a new simpler scheme. Also schollies to maybe the best punter in the country last year and one of the best kickers . I guess my point is that there is a lot of doom and gloom and yes bad things could happen , but i think this year is going to be fun and exciting and like MM said , for the first time in a long time psu has the potential for some surprises.

 

[21Guns]

So Franklin had a scholarship kicker for at least one year.

Yes, but he still had terrible kickoff coverage, because he had mostly walkons covering kicks, and while Sam was a great clutch field goal maker, he did not have an extremely strong leg, and often his kickoffs were landing at the 5 yard line or the 10 yard line.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

So Franklin had a scholarship kicker for at least one year.

Yes, and he won our bowl game for us in 2014.

 

[Frank from Huntingdon Valley]

If we lose this year then your hypothetical is very unlikely. The recruiting momentum will swing and I imagine the majority of the fanbase will not allow another year or two for Franklin to get his system in place.

We lose to Pitt we are coach hunting immediately and I won't settle for an unproven coach. We have the money.

Coach hunting? You need to do some brain hunting!

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

If we lose this year then your hypothetical is very unlikely. The recruiting momentum will swing and I imagine the majority of the fanbase will not allow another year or two for Franklin to get his system in place.

We lose to Pitt we are coach hunting immediately and I won't settle for an unproven coach. We have the money.

"....and I won't settle for an unproven coach.". Comical. "We" this, "We" that.....again, Comical. You're a natural for the Twit Olympics:

 

[Judge Smails]

fair and reasonable post......I always find it somewhat amusing when people try to seriously predict future win totals with little to zero knowledge of the opposing teams "current" roster situation. Last year has very little to do with anything that will happen this year. The usual suspects will be tough as always because of a wealth of talent that will let them reload somewhat but even with that , they will not be the same teams as last year and in my opinion penn state will be a completely different animal this year. The only opposing team that i am fairly familiar with their current situation is pitt , due to family members and i think that game is going to be a blast. I am actually fairly optimistic about that game . I think pitt will play with alot of early emotion but that will wear off and then it will all come down to talent and playcalling. Looking from a psu perspective , I think pitts linebackers will struggle with the contain of barkley and mcsorley and i really don't see pitts corners being able to handle the psu receiving corp. I have alot of faith in Moorhead's play calling abilities and while mcsorley may be a first year starter he is in his 3rd year and has already more than held his own against a georgia defense with alot more playmakers than he will face at pitt. On the other side , peterman is a vet and has proved to be more than serviceable. The question will be whether or not he can find a receiver to replace boyd who was one of the best i have ever seen at getting to the ball and moving the chains. Boyd made their running game effective and with him gone i think some teams will be able to play a lot of man coverage and focus on the run. I think peterman will need some help and the question is will pitt have any playmakers at wr? As far as above comments about being thin at linebacker , yes they are depthwise , but the starting trio of bell, whartman white, and cabinda with bowen as an alternate is a fast , hard hitting group who will be aided by what is probably the best secondary in the JF era. If the offense is more productive and there is little reason to think that they won't be , then maybe D won't have to be perfect and Pry will be able to turn some guys loose and take some chances. The O line is deeper and JF's recruits are starting to show their presence (see 4star bates) coupled with a new simpler scheme. Also schollies to maybe the best punter in the country last year and one of the best kickers . I guess my point is that there is a lot of doom and gloom and yes bad things could happen , but i think this year is going to be fun and exciting and like MM said , for the first time in a long time psu has the potential for some surprises.

People talk about our depth at LB, but we have a very good 2 deep there. Now, there are true freshman behind the two deep. But there are a lot of teams that don't have the talent we do in the top 6. Michigan for instance had to move Peppers to LB, and don't have backups as talented, with a year under their belt, as Cooper and Bowen.

Injuries are a worry, but the top 6 are damn good.

 

[Lionrevival]

Looks like you guys might be getting Toney

1. Lionrevival
   Kid is a stud. Seems like narduzzi is really punching us in the nuts.
   
   Good luck to Toney.
   
   1 Feb 2, 2016

Why would this matter? I am on record over and over for not really liking Franklin as a coach. I think we can do better. This only distracts from the subject. Why is the majority of the board picking Pitt when every recruiting site says that psu recruiting classes have been ranked better, or even much better, than Pitt over the last period? Our staff has been in place longer than Pitt's and they have a new offense too. What is it that is making you pick Pitt?

 

[Judge Smails]

Why would this matter? I am on record over and over for not really liking Franklin as a coach. I think we can do better. This only distracts from the subject. Why is the majority of the board picking Pitt when every recruiting site says that psu recruiting classes have been ranked better, or even much better, than Pitt over the last period? Our staff has been in place longer than Pitt's and they have a new offense too. What is it that is making you pick Pitt?

I'm not picking Pitt.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

I'm not picking Pitt.

Neither am I. I think PSU actually has an offense that will move the ball. A QB that can avoid sacks and a RB that can dictate how they play defense.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

So after reading your comments below, and knowing what a big, HUGE, Penn State fan you are, what do you think of Penn State's start of every verbal having a Pitt offer? Right back to domination, right?? 7-1 on commonly offered players? Then Wade back on campus this weekend, 4th time in State College since Feb 27th. Verbal would be awesome. You think he pulls the trigger?


Lionrevival Prep
We just lost several commitments in the last few weeks and failed to replace with better players. After the Hudson and Hamlin debacle I feel quite justified and saying that Franklin is sinking the ship.

Lionrevival Prep
New I just wanted to say that if you analyze the PSU class vs the Pitt class I feel you guys edged us by a hair or two. Going head-to-head with Narduzzi is a very humbling experience.