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Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions

Thank you for confirming my thoughts basically. I get if you have a better history, you get more benefit of the doubt but nobody would have picked Davis to be beating AA level guys as a HS senior.
I think where we might depart a bit is that I think this might have more to do with those AA level guys regressing than Davis making a huge jump. He's definitely better. I'm just not ready to say he's that much better, yet.
 
I think where we might depart a bit is that I think this might have more to do with those AA level guys regressing than Davis making a huge jump. He's definitely better. I'm just not ready to say he's that much better, yet.
I would agree with your take they regressed but they still recorded wins over good kids this year. Now if Davis' ranking was completely made on beating Eddie Ventresca earlier this season then you definitely are onto something lol.

That being said, your point stands, Braeden will face someone that can in theory beat him every round, especially since he could be drawing someone like Maida, Terukina, Palmer first round.
 
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I would agree with your take they regressed but they still recorded wins over good kids this year. Now if Davis' ranking was completely made on beating Eddie Ventresca earlier this season then you definitely are onto something lol.

That being said, your point stands, Braeden will face someone that can in theory beat him every round, especially since he could be drawing someone like Maida, Terukina, Palmer first round.
I don't know if we'll ever see a bracket like 125 again. Would be so funny if it ended up going chalk.
 
I don't know if we'll ever see a bracket like 125 again. Would be so funny if it ended up going chalk.
I think after conferences, it might end up being laughably true since it indicates who is getting hot.

As @jmadden1998 said, some guys are starting to solidify themselves surely as one of the guys, Ramos was the first (probably least shocking) I think someone from the Big 12 clearly does (my guess is Volk) and similar from the ACC (guessing Camacho)

Landmines will be everywhere as expected, Figs is going to be the annoying wildcard if he's healthy because he'll basically be randomly drawn into the field also lol. Noto is looking like he's going to be a bad draw instead of a high seed.
 
I think after conferences, it might end up being laughably true since it indicates who is getting hot.

As @jmadden1998 said, some guys are starting to solidify themselves surely as one of the guys, Ramos was the first (probably least shocking) I think someone from the Big 12 clearly does (my guess is Volk) and similar from the ACC (guessing Camacho)

Landmines will be everywhere as expected, Figs is going to be the annoying wildcard if he's healthy because he'll basically be randomly drawn into the field also lol. Noto is looking like he's going to be a bad draw instead of a high seed.
Camacho? Jacob or Colton? Either one would be a major surprise. Jacob has reportedly had some kind of nerve disorder and has seemingly lost his starting job to Trombley after losing 4 straight duals and Colton kind of sucks and has lost 4 in a row himself.
 
Camacho? Jacob or Colton? Either one would be a major surprise. Jacob has reportedly had some kind of nerve disorder and has seemingly lost his starting job to Trombley after losing 4 straight duals and Colton kind of sucks and has lost 4 in a row himself.
I was wondering what the deal with Camacho was. I really liked him a couple years ago and thought he would be in contention this year.
 
two years ago when we arrived at Logan pass shortly after dawn, and I looked around me, the words of job 38 came rushing into my head. Unforgettable.
Job 38; such a great chapter!

22 “Have you entered the storehouses of the snow
or seen the storehouses of the hail,
23 which I reserve for times of trouble,
for days of war and battle?
24 What is the way to the place where the lightning is dispersed,
or the place where the east winds are scattered over the earth?
25 Who cuts a channel for the torrents of rain,
and a path for the thunderstorm,
26 to water a land where no one lives,
an uninhabited desert,
27 to satisfy a desolate wasteland
and make it sprout with grass?
28 Does the rain have a father?
Who fathers the drops of dew?
29 From whose womb comes the ice?
Who gives birth to the frost from the heavens
30 when the waters become hard as stone,
when the surface of the deep is frozen?
 
HS kids AAing? might be a tall order, not impossible but they wouldn't be moving through the season sight unseen. Meaning they aren't going to surprise anyone and would be 'scouted'
 
Do they have guanciale at the General Store?
Doubtful but they do have bulk foods for all the Doomsday Preppers and, back in the 90s, the White Aryan Nation members who’d come into town to get supplies (no joke). Ruby Ridge is just up the road from Sandpoint
 
Yes, he's done a great job. I just want to see more before I predict him to be a top 4 guy. I feel the same way about Ayala more or less (though I do think Ayala is better and will control this match).

There aren't many guys at 125 who I don't think Davis can beat on any given day, but there also might be 20 guys who I think can beat him too, if not more. For example, the NCAA head of officials put out a statement saying he should have lost to Kilkeary and Kilkeary would not be ranked if he were the starter. He has several ugly losses.
Kilkeary has no good wins? He has head scratching losses early at the midlands and a couple others that any true freshman could have. However, he lost in sudden victory to #9 Greg D, 5-0 to Ramos and 10-3 to Noto. And, he beat Davis (we all know it).
 
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Kilkeary has no good wins.

He has two head scratching losses early at the midlands that any true freshman could have. However, he lost in sudden victory to #9 Greg Diakamahalis,

Kilkeary only lost to Noto 10-3, Diakamaholis in SV and Ramos 5-0. He has head scratching losses as all freshman do. But had he beat Davis (which we all know he did) then he’d certainly be ranked. Point is Kilkeary is NO slouch and will be tough.
Kilkeary is definitely going to be pretty good, although it sounds like he’s had an inconsistent redshirt year (that’s why redshirts exist, though, I guess). McCrone isn’t bad, either, but I think eventually next year Kilkeary will overtake him.
 
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I think we agree here. I said he could make the finals with how crazy the weight is. My only contention would be if I had to pick people to place top 4 at this point, I'd lean on guys with larger track records and/or have done it before.

If in the next few weeks, he sweeps Ayala, Peterson, and Smith that changes my perspective considerably. Maybe even if he only goes 2-1, honestly.

Could also be recency bias. I've never been high on Kilkeary and the fact he (should have) lost that match tells me he hasn't made the enormous jump from where he was a year ago when you had him ranked as a good, not great recruit.
Idk.... Kilkeary has always been tough.

No facts to back this up, I believe that he is darn close to beating or being just as good as McCrone.

That is with all my years of super spectacular knowledge that I present to you.😁🤫
 
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Kilkeary is definitely going to be pretty good, although it sounds like he’s had an inconsistent redshirt year (that’s why redshirts exist, though, I guess). McCrone isn’t bad, either, but I think eventually next year Kilkeary will overtake him.
Losses

4-2 to Caleb Weiand, Michigan St backup (8-6 record)

5-0 to Matt Ramos, Purdue. Ranked #1. 19-3 record

7-2 Kaden Chinavare, Central Michigan. Redshirt freshman (8-4 record)

10-3 Anthony Noto, Lock Haven. 12-2 record.

12-0 Diego Sotelo, Harvard. 21-7 record.

5-4 Max Gallagher, Penn. 11-5 record.

4-1 Greg Diakomahlis, Cornell, 13-3 record

4-3 Braeden Davis, Penn St, 14-0
 
Idk.... Kilkeary has always been tough.

No facts to back this up, I believe that he is darn close to beating or being just as good as McCrone.

That is with all my years of super spectacular knowledge that I present to you.😁🤫

I followed Kilkeary pretty closely in high school. He is very dangerous. Davis didn't wrestle a smart match. He needed to do everything he could to stay out of upper body ties, as that is where Kilkeary wants to be.
 
As it's been mentioned, there is some familiarity with Kilkeary and I think Davis let it get to his head a little bit, especially being in the position where he's technically the hunted but he hasn't beaten him before, not being his usual aggressive self.

For the record, they wrestled at PWC and Kilkeary used a few of those upper body attacks and Davis was ready for them, he panicked a bit this time around.
 
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I think basically everyone is saying that, it doesn't matter who you are, or where you sit in the rankings, 125 is just about open to anyone in the top 20. There is no way of proving anything at this weight until NCAA'S
 
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Losses

4-2 to Caleb Weiand, Michigan St backup (8-6 record)

5-0 to Matt Ramos, Purdue. Ranked #1. 19-3 record

7-2 Kaden Chinavare, Central Michigan. Redshirt freshman (8-4 record)

10-3 Anthony Noto, Lock Haven. 12-2 record.

12-0 Diego Sotelo, Harvard. 21-7 record.

5-4 Max Gallagher, Penn. 11-5 record.

4-1 Greg Diakomahlis, Cornell, 13-3 record

4-3 Braeden Davis, Penn St, 14-0
I agree the Kilk had the win, but his only scoring move was that great throw at the end. Let's not pretend that he is better than Davis.
 
I agree the Kilk had the win, but his only scoring move was that great throw at the end. Let's not pretend that he is better than Davis.
K beat Davis last year and was a higher ranked recruit.. If I had to guess partially based upon Davis wrestling a bit too conservative after that first takedown, I think their history was in his head just a bit. I like Braeden's upside in our room much better!
 
Independent of the outcome, I thought he wrestled less free than we have become accustomed. I suspect the history there altered his approach, and held him back a bit.
I believe this, too. Beating a guy you’ve lost to (twice in this case) is a mental hurdle you don’t have against others who may even be better but you haven’t faced before. He was very tentative in that match. Learning to just cut loose is something he’s still working on.
 
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I believe this, too. Beating a guy you’ve lost to (twice in this case) is a mental hurdle you don’t have against others who may even be better but you haven’t faced before. He was very tentative in that match. Learning to just cut loose is something he’s still working on.
That's an interesting take. I was puzzled as to why he was so tentative in the 3rd period instead of looking to score another takedown and ice the match. Basically gave the other guy too much respect and the opportunity to get really aggressive without the worry of getting out of position and taken down. Hopefully he learns from this because I thought he was the better wrestler for the majority of that match.
 
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I agree the Kilk had the win, but his only scoring move was that great throw at the end. Let's not pretend that he is better than Davis.
It’s not pretending until Braedon beats him. He hasn’t yet. But I’m with you and @GogglesPaizano on thinking he does from here on out to prove your point. Crazy anxious for tonight against an elite who’s beaten McKee twice and lost close to Ramos. If our kid wins, the pin drop silence in Carver may allow them to hear my screamed ‘Yes!’ from four states away.
 
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I understand the hesitation on Davis' rankings; his resume doesn't scream top-5 wrestler. At the same time, Ayala has not yet earned elite status either.

Three years into his college career, he has lost more top 20 matchups than won. I agree with those who see DA as a slight favorite, but a win by either won't cement him as a favorite to finish high on the podium. Too much volatility at 125 for that.
 
@smalls103 If this is not allowed because it's behind a paywall, let me know and I'll delete it.

I love Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions, as I like those kind of projections over rankings, as they are just someone picking what they thing will happen versus rankings that are just based on pure results that have been seen up to that point.

Willie now has us at 171 points (He has Iowa 5th)

Davis 4th
Nagao 5th
Beau 1st
Kasak 7th
Haines 2nd (Shapiro 1st)
Messenbrink 3rd
Starrocci 1st
Truax 3rd
Brooks 1st
Kerkvliet 1st

While I don't disagree with his overall predictions - 10 AAs, 5 finalists and 4 Champions, I do think it's still too early to say what Kasak's ceiling is.... not sure I see Bernie at 3 either. Messenbrink a bit of a wildcard as well given his overall results over the past year - really difficult to say where he stands relative to KOT and Carr at this point, but those 3 appear to be a level above the rest of the field.
 
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It’s not pretending until Braedon beats him. He hasn’t yet. But I’m with you and @GogglesPaizano on thinking he does from here on out to prove your point. Crazy anxious for tonight against an elite who’s beaten McKee twice and lost close to Ramos. If our kid wins, the pin drop silence in Carver may allow them to hear my screamed ‘Yes!’ from four states away.

I disagree here, either we ignore bad reffing and they split the last 2, or we include bad reffing and they split the last two.
 
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