Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions

[mvattivo]

@smalls103 If this is not allowed because it's behind a paywall, let me know and I'll delete it.

I love Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions, as I like those kind of projections over rankings, as they are just someone picking what they thing will happen versus rankings that are just based on pure results that have been seen up to that point.

Willie now has us at 171 points (He has Iowa 5th)

Davis 4th
Nagao 5th
Beau 1st
Kasak 7th
Haines 2nd (Shapiro 1st)
Messenbrink 3rd
Starrocci 1st
Truax 3rd
Brooks 1st
Kerkvliet 1st

 

[js8793]

@smalls103 If this is not allowed because it's behind a paywall, let me know and I'll delete it.

I love Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions, as I like those kind of projections over rankings, as they are just someone picking what they thing will happen versus rankings that are just based on pure results that have been seen up to that point.

Willie now has us at 171 points (He has Iowa 5th)

Davis 4th
Nagao 5th
Beau 1st
Kasak 7th
Haines 2nd (Shapiro 1st)
Messenbrink 3rd
Starrocci 1st
Truax 3rd
Brooks 1st
Kerkvliet 1st

Only thing that really stands out to me is Davis at 4th. I think he's more likely to go 1-2 than take 4th. However, with the parity at 125, he could also make the finals! I'm just not sold on him.

Bartlett is the other question. We'll see how Real rebounds. He was out the previous week due to illness. I think there's a decent chance his performance against Lemley is not indicative of where he'll be by the postseason.

 

[Idahopennstatefan]

10 scoring wrestlers is a problem.

 

[Still in State College]

Only thing that really stands out to me is Davis at 4th. I think he's more likely to go 1-2 than take 4th. However, with the parity at 125, he could also make the finals! I'm just not sold on him.

Bartlett is the other question. We'll see how Real rebounds. He was out the previous week due to illness. I think there's a decent chance his performance against Lemley is not indicative of where he'll be by the postseason.

Bartlett or as Cocaine Shane would say Bartletts is someone you always have to wonder about. Guys that wrestle close ones can win or lose on one mistake. I really like Beau at 141 but a one score match is always a coin flip

 

[IndianaNittanyLion]

[Bartlett or as Cocaine Shane would say Bartletts is someone you always have to wonder about. Guys that wrestle close ones can win or lose on one mistake. I really like Beau at 141 but a one score match is always a coin flip]

I wouldn't call it a coin flip. More like a dice roll. Bartlett is going to win 5 out of 6 of those matches, but there's a one in six chance the other guy rolls the right number.

 

[billrag]

[Bartlett or as Cocaine Shane would say Bartletts is someone you always have to wonder about. Guys that wrestle close ones can win or lose on one mistake. I really like Beau at 141 but a one score match is always a coin flip]

I wouldn't call it a coin flip. More like a dice roll. Bartlett is going to win 5 out of 6 of those matches, but there's a one in six chance the other guy rolls the right number.

Exactly, regardless of how anyone feels about his occasional (OK, frequent) propensity to make a match close, how many times does he have to win the close one before PSU fans will finally start to expect him to win each of those close ones?

 

[HikeNatParks]

As Lucky Ned Pepper might say about 171 points, "I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man."

 

[NittanyChris]

Exactly, regardless of how anyone feels about his occasional (OK, frequent) propensity to make a match close, how many times does he have to win the close one before PSU fans will finally start to expect him to win each of those close ones?

100%. Yes, it’s always tense and nerve-wracking, but the dude is simply Mr. Clutch with ice water in his veins. He’ll win 90% of those close ones and I like those odds.

 

[CentexLion]

Only thing that really stands out to me is Davis at 4th. I think he's more likely to go 1-2 than take 4th. However, with the parity at 125, he could also make the finals! I'm just not sold on him.

Bartlett is the other question. We'll see how Real rebounds. He was out the previous week due to illness. I think there's a decent chance his performance against Lemley is not indicative of where he'll be by the postseason.

Davis has done a great job and I only think he has given two takedowns all year. Against Kaylor from Oregon State, where I believe he had the Major and gave up the takedown at the very end, and then with O$U, again, at the very end. He seems to be in control always. Great stretch for him coming up. Learn and improve. But again, maybe he has the Cenzo mentality to never back down from a Mano y Mano throw (and it paid off more than it didn't).

 

[baccafarmer]

As Lucky Ned Pepper might say about 171 points, "I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man."

In the land of the blind - … the one eyed man is King.

 

[js8793]

Davis has done a great job and I only think he has given two takedowns all year. Against Kaylor from Oregon State, where I believe he had the Major and gave up the takedown at the very end, and then with O$U, again, at the very end. He seems to be in control always. Great stretch for him coming up. Learn and improve. But again, maybe he has the Cenzo mentality to never back down from a Mano y Mano throw (and it paid off more than it didn't).

Yes, he's done a great job. I just want to see more before I predict him to be a top 4 guy. I feel the same way about Ayala more or less (though I do think Ayala is better and will control this match).

There aren't many guys at 125 who I don't think Davis can beat on any given day, but there also might be 20 guys who I think can beat him too, if not more. For example, the NCAA head of officials put out a statement saying he should have lost to Kilkeary and Kilkeary would not be ranked if he were the starter. He has several ugly losses.

 

[Still in State College]

Yes, he's done a great job. I just want to see more before I predict him to be a top 4 guy. I feel the same way about Ayala more or less (though I do think Ayala is better and will control this match).

There aren't many guys at 125 who I don't think Davis can beat on any given day, but there also might be 20 guys who I think can beat him too, if not more. For example, the NCAA head of officials put out a statement saying he should have lost to Kilkeary and Kilkeary would not be ranked if he were the starter. He has several ugly losses.

I think that is the big thing. With the lack of a real favorite everybody seems to have a chance. When you look up and down the rankings there isn't anybody that you even say "if he can avoid him" he could have a big tournament. Everybody feels about equal.

 

[dbldoofus]

10 scoring wrestlers is a problem.

That is 2 too many.

 

[LOTOlion]

Davis 4th
Nagao 5th
Beau 1st
Kasak 7th
Haines 2nd (Shapiro 1st)
Messenbrink 3rd
Starrocci 1st
Truax 3rd
Brooks 1st
Kerkvliet 1st

WTF is going on with Willie!!! Blasphemy

 

[Eyecatcher]

WTF is going on with Willie!!! Blasphemy

He needs to work on his sequencing.

 

[tullfan68]

Exactly, regardless of how anyone feels about his occasional (OK, frequent) propensity to make a match close, how many times does he have to win the close one before PSU fans will finally start to expect him to win each of those close ones?

hey Beau better to score in the first!

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Exactly, regardless of how anyone feels about his occasional (OK, frequent) propensity to make a match close, how many times does he have to win the close one before PSU fans will finally start to expect him to win each of those close ones?

Beau's style reminds me a lot if Kyle Dake. Excellent defense with strategic offense. Will not force a shot and patiently waits for an opening too present itself. When it does, he usually scores.

 

[mvattivo]

Bo's style reminds me a lot if Kyle Dake. Excellent defense with strategic offense. Will not force a shot and patiently waits for an opening too present itself. When it does, he usually scores.

I wish he had Dake's ability from the top position. I agree though, he is calculated and doesn't put himself in danger. It's not my favorite style to watch, but, he makes it work.

 

[PSUeng]

Yes, he's done a great job. I just want to see more before I predict him to be a top 4 guy. I feel the same way about Ayala more or less (though I do think Ayala is better and will control this match).

There aren't many guys at 125 who I don't think Davis can beat on any given day, but there also might be 20 guys who I think can beat him too, if not more. For example, the NCAA head of officials put out a statement saying he should have lost to Kilkeary and Kilkeary would not be ranked if he were the starter. He has several ugly losses.

What did the head of officials say about the woods match? Pin

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Bo's style ....

Who?

 

[pawrestlersintn]

10 scoring wrestlers is a problem.

WE ONLY NEED EIGHT!

 

[GogglesPaizano]

WTF is going on with Willie!!! Blasphemy

In my book you can toss out Meyer's loses for obvious reasons. He is lightning quick. I have little doubt he is a finalist with Levi this year. I am not ready to go as far as Willie just yet, but Shapiro is right there. Let's just hope they don't meet in the semis.

 

[jack66]

In my book you can toss out Meyer's loses for obvious reasons. He is lightning quick. I have little doubt he is a finalist with Levi this year. I am not ready to go as far as Willie just yet, but Shapiro is right there. Let's just hope they don't meet in the semis.

But we don't lose in the semis.

 

[El-Jefe]

In my book you can toss out Meyer's loses for obvious reasons. He is lightning quick. I have little doubt he is a finalist with Levi this year. I am not ready to go as far as Willie just yet, but Shapiro is right there. Let's just hope they don't meet in the semis.

Real good chance that's how the seeds line up: 1 Levi, 2 Zerban, 3 Teemer, 4 Shapiro.

The big caveat is that Shapiro lost to Cardenas earlier this year and would have to beat him at EIWAs.

Also, if those are the top 4 seeds, the 5 seed is completely up for grabs. And the 13 seed could be somebody dangerous like, say, Chittum.

 

[jmadden1998]

Real good chance that's how the seeds line up: 1 Levi, 2 Zerban, 3 Teemer, 4 Shapiro.

The big caveat is that Shapiro lost to Cardenas earlier this year and would have to beat him at EIWAs.

Also, if those are the top 4 seeds, the 5 seed is completely up for grabs. And the 13 seed could be somebody dangerous like, say, Chittum.

Blockhus only has 1 loss and will be favored in his remaining 3 regular season matches. If he makes the finals at the Big 10 tourney he should be a top 4 seed.

 

[Sett1997]

As Lucky Ned Pepper might say about 171 points, "I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man."

I watched the "old" True Grit two nights ago.
Lucky Ned Pepper and the outlaw Tom Chaney @HikeNatParks 😆

 

[El-Jefe]

Blockhus only has 1 loss and will be favored in his remaining 3 regular season matches. If he makes the finals at the Big 10 tourney he should be a top 4 seed.

Possibly, and perhaps he's the favorite for the 5 seed if not higher. Top 4? Depends on the various seeding criteria. He looks like he probably won't fare as well in quality wins.

 

[jmadden1998]

Possibly, and perhaps he's the favorite for the 5 seed if not higher. Top 4? Depends on the various seeding criteria. He looks like he probably won't fare as well in quality wins.

Franek is his best. The Robb win isn’t as good after Peyton took more losses. However Teemer has lost to Robb and Chittum. Best win is Cardenas. Current RPI for Teemer is 14. Franek is 2 and Blockhus is 6. (Using wrestlestat since he calculates RPI for anyone with 5 matches).

Also, Zerban hasn’t competed since Jan 13. Not sure what’s going on with him.

 

[jmadden1998]

I believe seeding criteria is still the same.

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

 

[mvattivo]

I believe seeding criteria is still the same.

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

 

[El-Jefe]

I believe seeding criteria is still the same.

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

I think I saw recently that Coaches Rank flipped with Conference Placement. Wish I could find the link. Anyway, if true that tilts the field a little.

Specific losses matter only for H2H. Quantity of losses matter for WIn % and RPI.

 

[smalls103]

@smalls103 If this is not allowed because it's behind a paywall, let me know and I'll delete it.

I love Willie's Crystal Ball Predictions, as I like those kind of projections over rankings, as they are just someone picking what they thing will happen versus rankings that are just based on pure results that have been seen up to that point.

Willie now has us at 171 points (He has Iowa 5th)

Davis 4th
Nagao 5th
Beau 1st
Kasak 7th
Haines 2nd (Shapiro 1st)
Messenbrink 3rd
Starrocci 1st
Truax 3rd
Brooks 1st
Kerkvliet 1st

np, Matt. thanks for reading.

 

[smalls103]

[Bartlett or as Cocaine Shane would say Bartletts is someone you always have to wonder about. Guys that wrestle close ones can win or lose on one mistake. I really like Beau at 141 but a one score match is always a coin flip]

I wouldn't call it a coin flip. More like a dice roll. Bartlett is going to win 5 out of 6 of those matches, but there's a one in six chance the other guy rolls the right number.

i don't disagree w/ this at all.

i don't feel uber confident picking anyone at 141, and indeed Bartlett wrestles razor thin margins.

but who the heck else you going to pick there? real woods was the only other consideration and i just don't think he's right at the moment.

 

[smalls103]

Only thing that really stands out to me is Davis at 4th. I think he's more likely to go 1-2 than take 4th. However, with the parity at 125, he could also make the finals! I'm just not sold on him.

possible. 125 is nuts and won't be surprised at anything.

 

[smalls103]

Yes, he's done a great job. I just want to see more before I predict him to be a top 4 guy. I feel the same way about Ayala more or less (though I do think Ayala is better and will control this match).

he beat former AA DeAugustino, who beat Drake. he also beat former AA Kaylor by a wide margin.

 

[smalls103]

WTF is going on with Willie!!! Blasphemy

Cael's check came.
late.

 

[mcpat]

The question is how much was Woods recovering from sickness or injury. He missed the previous weekend. Meanwhile, Beau beat the clear #3.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

possible. 125 is nuts and won't be surprised at anything.

Yo @smalls103 - are you living in Coeur D’Alene now? You keep mentioning spending time there and the new studio.

My sister lived in Sandpoint for about 7 years - it is gorgeous up in the Panhandle

 

[mcpat]

For example, the NCAA head of officials put out a statement saying he should have lost to Kilkeary and Kilkeary would not be ranked if he were the starter. He has several ugly losses.

I believe you. Just would like to read it. Can you post a link?

 

[smalls103]

Real good chance that's how the seeds line up: 1 Levi, 2 Zerban, 3 Teemer, 4 Shapiro.

The big caveat is that Shapiro lost to Cardenas earlier this year and would have to beat him at EIWAs.

Also, if those are the top 4 seeds, the 5 seed is completely up for grabs. And the 13 seed could be somebody dangerous like, say, Chittum.

Zerban has beaten no one other than Cardenas. he could certainly win Big 12's but there's chittum, mauller, teague travis, ryder downey (who beat peyton robb) and cael swensen who are all Top 16.

as it stands now, it grinds my gears that he's ranked #2 and would be the 2nd seed.