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USC & UCLA

Rice University brings Houston 2.6 MM into the conversation or Texas A&M brings Houston and Dallas 2.9 MM into the conversation.
My cousin and his wife are Aggies and they and most of the Aggie faithful are very butt hurt over UT (Texas not Tennessee) being invited into the SEC without any Aggie consultation.
The only reason to admit Rice would be too few uncompetitive schools starting with R.
 
Eventually this football thing is going to drop the pretense that anything has anything to do with academic prestige. This is steam rolling toward a competition with the NFL and will be very interesting for a time with the Wild West NIL of college vs a salary capped NFL. Probably the most compelling sports story of my lifetime. Deep pocketed alumni with fierce ties to schools give the college football game possible staying power.
We've seen it in wrestling. The fan interest in PSU Wrestling/Iowa Wrestling vs Hawkeye/Nittany Lion WC is DRASTIC. How will that impact football, which will be little more than fulltime employers? Who knows, but that cash cow might leave the lot and our sport needs to be funding and stashing like crazy imo.
 
Eventually this football thing is going to drop the pretense that anything has anything to do with academic prestige. This is steam rolling toward a competition with the NFL and will be very interesting for a time with the Wild West NIL of college vs a salary capped NFL. Probably the most compelling sports story of my lifetime. Deep pocketed alumni with fierce ties to schools give the college football game possible staying power.
That never occurred to me. A 2nd+ round pick may stay for his senior year cause NIL pays more. Fascinating.
 
When in doubt, look at TV market sizes:
https://oaaa.org › Portals › O...PDF
2021 NIELSEN DMA RANKINGS - OAAA

Here are the Top 30 markets not under B10 or SEC control:
6 - San Francisco = 2.65M
10 - Boston = 2.49M
11 - Phoenix = 2.16M
12 - Seattle = 2.10M
13 - Tampa (?) = 2.04M
16 - Denver = 1.80M
17 - Orlando (?) = 1.73M
18 - Miami = 1.69M
20 - Sacramento = 1.46M
21 - Portland = 1.36M
22 - Charlotte = 1.29M
24 - Raleigh = 1.24M
26 - Pittsburgh = 1.17M
27 - San Diego = 1.13M
30 - Salt Lake City = 1.10M

? = I don't know how Tampa and Orlando are split between Florida and Florida State, contractually.

USC + UCLA bring the SF and Sacto markets. Also, Stanford doesn't have a wide fan base, and Berkeley doesn't care about football.

Boston can't happen due to the ACC poison pill.

That leaves Washington, Arizona State, and Colorado as the most likely targets. ASU doesn't fit academics. Colorado doesn't fit athletics (though there is some long-term potential growth). Washington fits both.

Oregon is with Washington most likely. They don't fit academics, but there's zero chance of turning away that marketing prowess.
Oregon and UDub both hold their own academically with the Big 10
 
Based upon market size and academics I'm confused as to why Stanford isn't at the top of the "next" list. Wrestling is simply a cherry on the top.
Problem for Stanford is that nobody cares about Stanford football, including Stanford. Stanford has acknowledged that they are demphasizing sports. The same problem exists for Rice and TCU. Like Stanford in a big TV market, problem is nobody watches them.
 
Problem for Stanford is that nobody cares about Stanford football, including Stanford. Stanford has acknowledged that they are demphasizing sports. The same problem exists for Rice and TCU. Like Stanford in a big TV market, problem is nobody watches them.

When I moved out to Cali in the mid 90s I went to a Stanford-Utah football game. There about 5,000 people in the stadium and most of them were Utah fans.
 
Problem for Stanford is that nobody cares about Stanford football, including Stanford. Stanford has acknowledged that they are demphasizing sports. The same problem exists for Rice and TCU. Like Stanford in a big TV market, problem is nobody watches them.
Clearly if some combination of eyeballs on a televised game is the major criteria, with filled seats in a stadium to a lesser degree, ND is the clear leader of a school to be added, while a BC probably wouldn’t make the cut.

But it would follow that if the super conference business model is to maximize revenue through tv ads and ticket sales aren’t there schools at risk for being subtracted from the conference? Any pencil pusher can do the math that there are bottom line gains to be made not just through addition but by subtraction as well. If accountants are truly running the show, underperforming school may not be allowed to drain the coffers of any super conference (no tv following or sold out stadiums) while significant upgrades to the bottom line are simply a phone call away. Here’s the BIG football attendance records pre and post pandemic (last 2 relevant years)

BIG School | 2019 | 2021

Michigan | 111,459 | 107,712

Penn State | 105,678 | 106,756

Ohio State | 103,383 | 92,869

Nebraska | 89,348 | 86,586

Wisconsin | 76,472 | 70,556

Michigan State | 67,819 | 70,170

Iowa | 65,557 | 66,201

Purdue | 54,021 | 52,536

Indiana | 41,244 | 50,037

Minnesota | 46,190 | 46,804

Rutgers | 30,082 | 46,193

Maryland | 37,812 | 37,767

Illinois | 36,587 | 36,573

Northwestern | 37,736 | 29,186
 
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Folks on ESPN say otherwise about both schools expanding to Olympic Sports. Not to say it will happen but USC appears to be closer to adding wrestling (as a Varsity sport) than UCLA. It is all a crap shoot right now and more so for football than anything else.

On a different topic.
I would not see the Big Ten stopping here either. The Big Ten has always been enamored by BC (due to the Boston TV Market) and Louisville. Although it would not be a prime football school but more so a basketball addition, the Big Ten also likes Kansas. Unless Miami and Clemson leave for the SEC, and the ACC folds (or has lesser competition giving ND an out or ND buys out there contract), currently Notre Dame has to stay with the ACC due to a clause in the agreement that if they were to join a conference it would have to be the ACC. I also believe that UNC and VA Tech may make a push to join the Big Ten as well.

I would love to hear other peoples opinions but it is just hard to fathom a college sports landscape that will ultimately be determined by about 40-50 schools in 2 conferences.
The desire for academic cred will keep a lot of Universities out of the BIG. We’ll end up with two mega conferences (SEC & BIG) and a grab bag of leftovers. Good news is that we’re IN! Bad news is that a lot of Universities will dial down overall athletic pursuits and eliminate Olympic sports. Stanford, CAL, ND, Duke, UNC, Virginia and a select few others (Wake, Ga.Tech, Vandy) need to find homes and have the academic chops to enter the BIG.
 
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I was catching up on the reanimated AJ Ferrari thread and saw this gem from @El-Jefe . Anyway, this belongs on this thread.
 
If USC and UCLA end up in the Big 10, a lot of West coast people are going to be pretty disappointed, myself included. I don’t know how many of you Eastern guys pay a lot of attention to Pac 12 football, but their conference games can be really exciting. Maybe their teams don’t always get the top rankings nationally, but I’ve seen a lot of real nailbiters go down to the last play of the game. It would be a big mistake to break up that kind of competition.
 
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If USC and UCLA end up in the Big 10, a lot of West coast people are going to be pretty disappointed, myself included. I don’t know how many of you Eastern guys pay a lot of attention to Pac 12 football, but their conference games can be really exciting. Maybe their teams don’t always get the top rankings nationally, but I’ve seen a lot of real nailbiters go down to the last play of the game. It would be a big mistake to break up that kind of competition.
“If”, it’s too late for if. It’s a done deal already.
 
That never occurred to me. A 2nd+ round pick may stay for his senior year cause NIL pays more. Fascinating.
It’s been actively discussed in the baseball draft the past couple days. If you are slotted at x dollars for a mlb bonus and then the minor league grind, would you be better going to Vanderbilt for 3-4 years, collect NIL and possibly move up to a higher draft slot. You get to a point where you are playing with house money.
 
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It’s been actively discussed in the baseball draft the past couple days. If you are slotted at x dollars for a mlb bonus and then the minor league grind, would you be better going to Vanderbilt for 3-4 years, collect NIL and possibly move up to a higher draft slot. You get to a point where you are playing with house money.
check out the "heart of the game" book - true story of Mike Coolbaugh and his tragic death but it does detail the life of a minor leaguer and the importance of the bonus money when up for 'promotions'
 
Interesting evaluations

There is less than zero chance if a conference was offered their choice of Wisconsin or Penn State that they would not pick Penn State. Other than that foolishness the rankings are relatively interesting.
 
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