Univ. of Alabama with 1200 positive cases.
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Interesting article in my local paper, print edition from NYT reporter Mandavilli:
The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles, the fewer cycles required , the greater the amount of virus or viral load in the sample. The greater the viral load the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus is called the cycle threshold. The C.T. is never included in the results sent to doctors and patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In 3 sets of testing data that include the CT, compiled by officials in MA, NY, and Nevada, up to 90% of the people testing positive carried barely any virus.
On Thursday, the US recorded 45,604 new cases, according to database maintained by the NYT. If the rate fo contagiousness in the MA, NY, and Nevada were applied nationally , then perhaps only 4,500 of those people actually need too isolate and submit to contact tracing.
All labs set the CT at a different limit. Some are up to 40 . Tests with CT that high may detect not just live virus, but also genetic fragments that post no risk in particular. CDC is examining a upper limit on CT, and also looking at whether to begin reporting the CTs found in positive tests. A more reasonable cutoff suggested would be 30-35 cycles. This change would mean that the amount of genetic material in a sample would have 100-fold to 1000-fold that of the current standard to produce a positive result.
The solution suggested now is more rapid tests that are fast, cheap , and abundant, even though they have less sensitivity.
The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles, the fewer cycles required , the greater the amount of virus or viral load in the sample. The greater the viral load the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus is called the cycle threshold. The C.T. is never included in the results sent to doctors and patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In 3 sets of testing data that include the CT, compiled by officials in MA, NY, and Nevada, up to 90% of the people testing positive carried barely any virus.
On Thursday, the US recorded 45,604 new cases, according to database maintained by the NYT. If the rate fo contagiousness in the MA, NY, and Nevada were applied nationally , then perhaps only 4,500 of those people actually need too isolate and submit to contact tracing.
All labs set the CT at a different limit. Some are up to 40 . Tests with CT that high may detect not just live virus, but also genetic fragments that post no risk in particular. CDC is examining a upper limit on CT, and also looking at whether to begin reporting the CTs found in positive tests. A more reasonable cutoff suggested would be 30-35 cycles. This change would mean that the amount of genetic material in a sample would have 100-fold to 1000-fold that of the current standard to produce a positive result.
The solution suggested now is more rapid tests that are fast, cheap , and abundant, even though they have less sensitivity.
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Simply stated, when a death certificate is filed, essentially all the causes contributing to the death are listed, and one is selected to be the primary cause.
That is interesting information. I've been saying we need to redefine what is a "positive" result. As we unlock and people get preventative tests there will be more and more positive tests from people that had it long ago and were never symptomatic. In the first two months, you were only to get tested if you had symptoms. In many weeks/months, you needed a prescription. Clearly people had it but never knew and now are counted as a sick person who has to quarantine. That inflates the numbers if we are trying to determine who is really sick.
Here is a site that tracks % of tests given to % of positives. It is very helpful. This was always going to be two steps forward, one step back situation as we unlock.
No- it simply means the best thing you can do to fight a virus like this is to eat healthy, take the proper vitamins, work out, and keep your weight down. Not wear a mask forever.
America is pretty unhealthy right now.
If it were, people would be scared sh-itless.
If you look at the true numbers- this thinng isn't any kind of demic anymore other than a case-demic.
It, at least, deserves scrutiny as we shape public policy beyond a broad-brush, one-size-fits-all methodology that will ruin our economy and lead to deaths as a result of the "cure". Lets have a discussion and not shout down people that have a point-of-view based on the same sources of "science" that we followed in March. And, yes, I do believe that the USA's mortality rate, has been greatly increased due to our country's collective weight problem and diabetes.
..just all of it.
I certainly understand the debating tool of conflation. Just as there are lunatics that advocate shutting it down again, there are lunatics that advocate opening it back up to 100% again (including not taking preventative measures like wearing a mask in public places).
The COVID vs flu argument is insane. There are now piles of data which speak to the severity of COVID. The issue this country has is it became political. 4% of the world's population and 25% of the COVID deaths. That isn't more testing. That is failure. COVID has lingering effects that do not come with a typical flu. If you stripped out the politics from the issue, very few would debate that this is no different than any other virus. But in 2020, which side you sit on is everything and impacts every decsion. So, we march forward and cross our fingers - or deny all logic.
All of it is true- you're just taking it personally. Had I written it about you, I would have quoted you before I wrote it. You and I disagree on a lot of this, but at least you see both sides- which is why I DIDN'T quote you.
There's also piles of data that says covid is the same as or less of an impact than the flu for most age groups. And the typical flu can have all the same lingering effects of covid.
Depends on several factors. For people under the age of 45 without an underlying condition, the chances of death are statistically zero. According to the CDC, we've had 4,895 COVID deaths for all people under the age of 45. If you then factor in underlying conditions you'd have a number much lower than that.
- Age 35-44 = 3,301
- Age 25-34 = 1,257
- Age 15-24 = 280
- Age 5-14 = 28
- Age 1-4 = 12
- Age under 12 months, = 17
And this 25% of the Covid deaths is BS. The US is clearly over reporting, and other countries are under reporting. No doubt. There are probably 2000 in all of PA, with a population of 12 million, that weren't in nursing homes. The wrong people are being locked up. Deaths are WAY down in the US from Covid. No reason for some of this to be going on.
Follow the Science Ned. I posted nothing but facts from the CDC and Johns Hopkins.
That's a good start. But reducing the spread of the disease in the short term with something as innocuous as wearing masks can also help.
Ned, try to keep up.
Noone is saying there are no deaths.
People, based on science and facts, are saying that staying locked down is pointless.
You love quoting the gross numbers but you do not really understand them.
Try reading what Obli is posting... numbers, facts and science.
Learn. Absorb. Stop being stubborn and acting stupid.
Then come back.
LdN
Just to qualify that CDC report, coronavirus was still found to be the underlying cause in 95% of all deaths related to the virus, including those with no underlying conditions. In other words, people can live with obesity, diabetes or heart disease for years, then get infected with COVID-19 and die quickly thereafter.
That is 100% correct. I am in no way stating the 94% of "COVID deaths" are not from COVID. I am stating that, combined with other statistical realities, the true impact of COVID is far less than being reported. As I stated:
- In Minnesota, more people died of COVID over the age of 90 than under the age of 70
- In Ohio, over 50% of those that died were over 90
- In Ohio, over 75% of those that died were already in assisted living facilities
- Nationwide, the average age of a COVID death is higher than the national average life expectancy (78.54 years)
- The morbidity for those under the age of 45 and not having an underlying condition is far, less than 1%. (and that doesn't take into consideration those who contracted and don't know or improvement made in treatments)
- The statistical morbidity of those under the age of 25 is statistically zero
These are CDC and state facts and are not in dispute.
There are additive and interactive effects of comorbid physical and mental conditions on functional health. Add one more stressor and a failing system can easily become overwhelmed and outmatched.
It is...I quoted the CDC and Johns Hopkins. The problem is the media, not the medical people.
man, you are pretty pathetic person. i am sorry that facts and science scare you and humiliate you.Aren't you are the guy who keeps telling the story of the "incorrectly" oriented launch pad at Kennedy Space center thus explaining why the shuttle rolled after take off?
Way OT: Going to Kennedy Space Center on Sunday
Therr are a ton of different tours listed. Any suggestions for best way to spend one day there? Thanks.bwi.forums.rivals.com
Tell us again, why we should believe you or any of your colleagues on COVID?
Why would they only isolate symptomatic kids? Aren't all the positives able to spread the disease?
With all due respect [I am one of those older and with other at risk symptoms] why are we spending so much time on what caused the death of these old folks? And that is not to diminish their importance at all [I am one] But for me and any older or at risk person our life has changed for the foreseeable future. [herd immunity, T cells vaccines etc] but that really has zero relation to everyone under the age of [you pick it] 55. For a thread about 1200 college kids testing positive too much time IMO about whether us old folks died from a heart attack or COVID.
P.S If I had a college age child I would NOT hang around with them unless they came home and got a negative test.
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Well there was a time when a side gig with the NIH was viewed respectfully. Not so sure anymore.
Interesting. So if true and 90% of those infected do not carry a heavy viral load do they still build enough antibodies to fight off the virus? If so that could be good for herd immunity.
Symptomatic cases are “isolated” for 10 days and until symptom free in hotel room. Asymptomatic cases are “quarantined” for 14 days in dorm room. If they develop symptoms they move to isolation in hotel room. In theory they are similar but the university is assuming more responsibility and control for symptomatic cases.
https://www.ua.edu/news/2020/08/what-to-know-about-isolation-quarantine-protocols/
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Good question. It didn't say in the article. But as they are testing the vaccines, they are playing with the viral load given with the doses. When the loads got too small, they needed a 2nd dose to get the desired antibody response.
In the article it said they usually record the CT for the flu. You think some better parameters would have been in place to track that information as well as a more complete demographic profile of the COVID-19 positive individuals.
I used CDC and Johns Hopkins university for every single one of my posts and I included the link. sorry if reality scares you.
I don't know if we are now but, I can guarantee you this: The money that WAS paid is already spent!
Some Universities are monitoring sewage to screen for COVID-19, and at Univ. Of AZ they were able to determine the dorm as.a source of positive tests, and then tracked down the students.
lancasteronline.com
How many COVID-19 cases exist on the F&M campus? The answer may be in its sewage
In an effort to keep students healthy by minimizing the spread of COVID-19, officials at Franklin & Marshall College are looking to likely one of the dirtiest places on campus
Do you mean that hospitals can profit by falsifying medical records? Don't know how that has changed with Covid 19.
So flu changed so much that it's now a year around thing or are you simply accusing hospitals and doctors of making cases up out of thin air?
