Univ. of Alabama with 1200 positive cases.
- Thread starter Waste Management Consultant
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Fine. Pedantic. The point is the 170k, or whatever number you want to make up today, is greatly reduced when you consider the deaths that would have occurred anyway due to the normal flu, age of the average casualty, and other underlying conditions. The 170k number goes to 50k our 75 our 100. All are much different. And when you then shape public policy to put millions at risk associated with depression, financing ruin, family violence, eroded school experiences, etc. you may draw a far different conclusion.The facts you cite and the conclusions you draw are two different things. Your conclusions are certainly disputable and not realistic.
1. Since Feb. 1, their are 6,640 reported deaths due to influenza. That covers the last two months of flu season and 5 months where the flu isn't widely circulating.
Conservatively, the number of reported deaths will likely be 10 - 12,000 between Feb. 2020 and Feb. 2021.
Further, the numbers you cite are estimated deaths which is based on number of actual deaths, hospitalization, and flu testing and are significantly higher numbers than the reported deaths. Over the last 10 years, the estimated ranges vary from 12,000 - 61,000 with an average around maybe 37,000 estimated deaths. COVID may thin the older vulnerable population to an extent, but the actual flu numbers since COVID are still in line with past years.
Deducting all of the estimated flu deaths from the known COVID deaths is invalid. People are still dying of influenza so to pretend that COVID is just wiping out all of the flu deaths is not science based in any stretch of the imagination.
2) PA is in the top 5 for percent of deaths in nursing homes. So using that number with the national number of coronavirus cases is inappropriate. The national average of COVID deaths in nursing homes to total deaths is around 40%.
Nearly One-Third of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes (Published 2021)
The virus has devastated residents and staff members in more than 32,000 long-term care facilities across the country.www.nytimes.com
Secondly, you double count by subtracting the influenza deaths and then deducting nursing home deaths. Many many influenza deaths are also from nursing homes. Even if you want to write off everyone from the nursing home as of zero importance, the number you'd get to is 40% of 180,000, or around 72,000 deaths, which leaves around 108,000 remaining. Certainly many people, myself included, wouldn't totally discount the life of the elderly or vulnerable. But even if you were to, then the argument you'd make is that the states with the highest percent of nursing home deaths are actually doing the best job at controlling COVID mortality. Seems laughable, but if that is the position you take then you should be thrilled with the job that PA has done.
3) Again, not sure why deaths above 65 shouldn't just be written off in terms of public health. The percent of deaths under 65 for COVID (33K/180K = ~20%) is similar to the percent of deaths from coronary heart disease. Approximately, 20% of the 365,000 deaths from coronary heart disease are < 65 years old.
Furthermore, you can shape public policy by age, social economic situations, location.
finally, you can see the death rate is not linear. The death rates early were worse due to several preventative and lack of treatment understanding. So again, this shapes public policy moving forward.
the’ number’ of infections has to go up as a) more tests are performed and b) more people are infected. This should have been expected and it is not a problem. Today, the average age of death caused by ‘covid’ is actually older than the national life expectancy.
Simply not true. Anyone who happened to have COVID and died was considered a COVID mortality. More people died in this period because we shut down our medical system to reserve beds and equipment for anticipated covid patients. In addition, lots of people died from suicide, drugs, heart attacks associated with the additional pressure
you just have to look at the cdc books to see this
No, this suggests there are 50k deaths related to lockdowns. People who were basically told to not go to the doctor or hospital since they didn't have covid symptoms. People who missed key "elective" treatments that caused their controllable diseases to get out of control. And people that overdosed or committed suicide due to the forced economic collapse.
I did. Of course I did. In fact, I used three different numbers to denote that we will never know for certain. But the real number is much lower than the 170k you are making up yourself
Let me be sure I understand this. 30,000 kids got tested. Anyone who tested positive was not allowed back. So presumably every student coming back "was clean". This virus supposedly can take up to 10-12 days to show itself. In 8 days 1200 students show positive. If you were negative when you arrived why would you get re tested so soon unless you felt symptoms? But 1200 then showed positive. Add to that that the tests likely took a couple days for the results to show up and the window to get infected feel symptoms get tested and get positive results back seems very small.
Something not adding up.
I didn't make up any number. People have honestly lost their minds. "Don't believe the official number, it's made up! Believe the number I just made up!"
Jesus dude, you need to come to grips with reality.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
I quoted facts and included links to the articles. In fact the cdc reported Friday only 6% of covid related deaths didn’t already have a life threatening underlying condition. In fact, the average age of the covid deaths is actually higher than the USAs life expectancy.I didn't make up any number. People have honestly lost their minds. "Don't believe the official number, it's made up! Believe the number I just made up!"
Jesus dude, you need to come to grips with reality.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.covid.cdc.gov
If that’s your argument than you compare the number of lives lost to shutdown not to COVID versus the number of deaths prevented by the shutdown. That gives you the delta on whether more lives were saved or lost did to shutdown.
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So you're telling me the number listed on the CDC website, of 182K is made up, or they decided to post wrong information on purpose to their website?
That's the thing about this virus. It will kill people with underlying health issues. That's how all of this works. When someone gets the flu and has an underlying health issue and the flu kills them, they died from the flu. The number is 182K deaths due to COVID (that we even know about) no matter how much you don't want it to be that high.
So toadie has a post that says everyone was tested before they came back and only negatives were allowed back. So all kids coming back were negative.
Why would a kid get retested so soon after coming back to campus as negative?
Led me to believe maybe they were showing symptoms. Regardless an 8 day window between coming back negative, deciding for some reason to get tested again, and then waiting for test results to come back seem like a very small window. As I said elsewhere. Something doesn't add up.
Reports are that 1/3 of their 300 rooms for isolation are filled. So at least 100 kids are symptomatic. The remainder may be ones that are presymptomatic or asymptomatic but were tested as in contact with a confirmed case. Nevertheless they can pass it to others, which is what the University is trying to minimize.
Yes, that’s right. If a 92 year old lady died of heart failure and tested positive they counted that death as a COVID fatality. Google it: ‘6% of all covid fatalities CDC’ so the point is that some large percentage would have died anyway
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www.google.com
one of the significant costs has been the significant reduction in healthcare spent on other critical ailments. for several months it was hard to get healthcare particularly in diagnosing and treating other diseases. no matter how anone feels this was a very real cost.
Everybody is going to die. By your logic COVID hasn't killed anybody. Neither has cancer. Or AIDs. Or the flu. I mean, what is the cutoff? If somebody was "going to die" how quickly will we have had to expect them to die where we can dismiss COVID as the cause of death? It's like you don't understand how a virus works at all. We have gotten to the point in our country where people have been told over and over it's OK to ignore facts and make up their own and here we are. You're dismissing the number of deaths for COVID and just making up your own as if that's valid. It's honestly unreal how stupid we've become.
Anyone who had covid was counted as a covid fatality. I posted the cdc admission of this in my last post. All of then
Yep. And NY sucked up tons of resources and politicians made companies build equipment that hasn’t been nor will ever be used
So saith the man who has checked every death certificate prepared in 2020.
The "lockdown" may have caused folks to miss elective treatments that led to deaths like you said. However, there is definitely not any data to support your speculation about suicides. And in fact there is a lot of data pointing to folks dying outside of hospitals not being properly assigned a cause of death that likely was Covid. Possibly this will be corrected over time. It is the usual trend for death statistics to take months for the CDC to correct (upwards as expected since the dead don't become undead but death counts are often delayed) in numbers and cause of deaths.
I quoted the CDC. It was linked in my post. Obviously, more research than you’ve ever done
Allow me to expand on your statistical wizardry.I was the first person to post on this after coming back from a trip to san fran in Feb. I was alarmed because early death rates were in the 2% range and posted that, if this gets out, we are looking at several million dead. Many early predictors were in the 1.5 to 2m dead....and that was through April.
So here's the deal, 170k people have died in the USA
So, given 1, 2, 3 above (which are facts that are not disputed) and 4 (which makes sense but can't be quantified) we are shutting down entire regions for ~ 33k deaths? Wouldn't it be much smarter to provide a safe shelter for those in nursing homes, above the age of 65 and/or compromised? Why are we shutting down schools, football, businesses, and others? Why are we ruining businesses across the north of PA who haven't been affected, almost, at all?
- how many would have died from the flu anyway? CDC says between 24k and 62k. Let's say 50k. That means the real death toll is 120k
- About 68% of COVID Deaths are for those already in assisted in PA (75% in Ohio) living (meaning, already compromised). 45% of 120k leaves 39k deaths for those that would not have died from the normal flu and were not already compromised.
- According to this site, about 33,000 have died that are under the age of 65. Nobody knows, of that, who may have been comprised (cancer, sickle cell, diabetes, etc.)
- Now that we've been fighting this thing, the percentage of deaths is much, much lower but I can't find anyone who has posted morbidity rates by month. (almost seems like they are hiding this, wouldn't this be an important stat to track?)
5. 100% of the people who died of COVID would have eventually died of something at some point. Therefore, if we subtract 170K from 170K we get 0. Pandemic solved.
This is patently untrue and no serious person at the CDC would ever say this. It is certainly true that the number of Covid deaths (and actual deaths overall) are under counted and will be corrected upwards over the next few months. This is the way it happens due to reporting delays in the Byzantine system we call health care.
I posted the link that contains a link to the actual cdc report
Yeah. Thanks for your input. As I stated for further proof the average age of covid deaths is actually older than the USA age expectancyAllow me to expand on your statistical wizardry.
5. 100% of the people who died of COVID would have eventually died of something at some point. Therefore, if we subtract 170K from 170K we get 0. Pandemic solved.
Of course life expectancy increases with age. A 65 year old has a lower life expectancy than a 68 year old person. It’s not a meaningful metric in this analysis. The USA life expectancy is greatly influenced by things that kill young people, like car accidents, drug overdoses, wars, murders, etc. if you’re healthy enough to make it until 70, you’ll probably live until at least 80.
Today, CNN validated my comments:
The CDC's latest regular update to a public statistics page on the pandemic -- there was nothing especially "quiet" about it -- said that for 6% of the deaths included in its statistics, "Covid-19 was the only cause mentioned" on the deceased person's death certificate.
That is not at all the same thing as saying only 6% of reported Covid-19 deaths "actually died" from Covid-19. It simply means that the other 94% were listed as having at least one additional factor contributing to their death.
For example, the other 94% includes people whose death certificate listed both Covid-19 and obesity, both Covid-19 and diabetes, or both Covid-19 and heart disease -- among other conditions.
The CDC's latest regular update to a public statistics page on the pandemic -- there was nothing especially "quiet" about it -- said that for 6% of the deaths included in its statistics, "Covid-19 was the only cause mentioned" on the deceased person's death certificate.
That is not at all the same thing as saying only 6% of reported Covid-19 deaths "actually died" from Covid-19. It simply means that the other 94% were listed as having at least one additional factor contributing to their death.
For example, the other 94% includes people whose death certificate listed both Covid-19 and obesity, both Covid-19 and diabetes, or both Covid-19 and heart disease -- among other conditions.
The way some of you keep spinning this, Covid will soon not have killed anyone. Maybe it's a cure for cancer, too.
Well, it is pretty bogus for you to say that. I know nuance can sometimes confuse people. Clearly COVID is a horrible problem and almost nobody disputes that. But there is a level of severity argument here that is just. As someone else posted, kids are playing sports all over the country, the NFL has one person in quarantine, Baseball, hockey and NBA are doing just fine. Millions of peaceful protesters showed up in Washington this weekend. And those who would suggest that the treatment of COVID may no longer be worth the cost are the bad guys.
Go figure.
Do they do that with all causes of death? I mean, for those who die of heart disease, are other factors listed (e.g., heart disease and obesity, heart disease and Covid-19, etc.) such that there is a percentage in which it is the only cause mentioned?
that's completely untrue- which is why people feel the need to respond
it's not the zombie apopolypse, but it's not a hoax, either
It's unfortunate that it was made political early on- that has been distinctly unhelpful
So by your logic, someone who was obese was destined to die on the day he or she did regardless of whether they contracted Covid 19. No way they could have lived a year, five or ten years and within that time frame taken steps to reverse their condition?
Guess we should abandon all of the efforts of medicine to prolong and improve the lives of people with chronic conditions.
I know when people lose arguments they want to put words in other people's mouths. It is ok, I understand.
I never said that...and I know you know that. I think it is reasonable to assume, given the CDC is now saying only 6% of COVID deaths did not have underlying conditions is a big deal when:
- In MN more people died of COVID who were over the age of 90 than 70
- In Ohio, over 50% of those who died were over 80 and over 75% who died were in extended care facilities (not including hospitals)
- If you are in good health, no underlying conditions, your chance of death is 94% less than the average mortality rate published by the CDC
- The USA mortality rate is published to be .0306 of KNOWN cases. So the rate for those without underlying causes is .001836 of KNOWN cases (and that rate is dropping every day as we learn better treatment and prevention like wearing masks, not putting sick people into nursing homes and disinfecting public transportation).
You are the guy trying to make it out something different and trying to put words in my mouth. Remember your most recent post?:
"The way some of you keep spinning this, Covid will soon not have killed anyone. Maybe it's a cure for cancer, too."
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