Thank you. Using NY to dunk on other states is completely insane.
Univ. of Alabama with 1200 positive cases.
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Read between the lines and what Mina advocates is that everyone, except for those with resolved Covid 19 cases, tests once a day or more. Great idea, but the technology isn't close to being there and there will be behavioral issues to address if that's resolved.
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Actually the typical flu seasons have been more deadly with those under 21. Terrible virus for the elderly and those with serious existing health issues.
Who cares if they 100%. If PSU had played 6-7 games I would have been thrilled. As it stands now the B1G relied on bad info, didn't listen to AD's and coaches, did not even vote and has been completely non-transparent in. response. A very bad look.
Are all the 1200 young and otherwise healthy students? Or does the number include students with underlying conditions, or their professors and staff who may be older and less healthy? What is the projection for how many other infected individuals will result from this initial round in the local business community and among the families of the students?
Actually it means New York is still closed in many areas such as dining inside. When it opens to the level of Alabama and tests students etc their numbers will jump.
In ohio, over 50% of these deaths would have occurred naturally, without COVID according to the state.
I would love to see this fact reported somewhere. This is a total misrepresentation.
How about his fact from the CDC:
From Jan1-July 31 2020 in the US there have been 220,000 excess deaths in the US. The means 220,000 more people have died in the US than in an average year. That number takes into account the flu deaths each year (and every other type of death including motorocycle accidents, sickle cell, cancer, diabetes, etc.). Any idea what might have killed many of those 220K people? By the way, at the end of July the CDC had reported ~165K coronavirus deaths.
I would love to see this fact reported somewhere. This is a total misrepresentation.
How about his fact from the CDC:
From Jan1-July 31 2020 in the US there have been 220,000 excess deaths in the US. The means 220,000 more people have died in the US than in an average year. That number takes into account the flu deaths each year (and every other type of death including motorocycle accidents, sickle cell, cancer, diabetes, etc.). Any idea what might have killed many of those 220K people? By the way, at the end of July the CDC had reported ~165K coronavirus deaths.
Or the more likely explanation, COVID deaths have been undercounted. Much like the flu is done every year. The most actual reported flu deaths in a year over that last decade is 13K, yet the CDC reports the worst year as 66K deaths. How? Because they calculate them based on excess deaths.
If the fact that most of the southern states have a higher infection rate than NY does upsets you perhaps you should get some emotional support.
I spend more time in NY than I do in MA. NYC was certainly a disaster, but what was done here in the rest of the state probably saved a lot of lives.
I lived in NYC when the infection hit. There was no testing. You were not permitted to leave your apartment.
You could only see a doctor if you were ready to die.
There is no chance the infection rate was lower here. Deaths per capital show that.
LdN
According to this:
Only 9210 of the approx. 153,000 CV deaths were attributable to CV alone. The other deaths (94% of the total) had other serious illnesses as a complication, and the majority were of advanced age.
Based on this it appears that CV is not the cause of "excess deaths." The lockdowns cause a great deal of depression and anxiety in older people, especially those in nursing homes. Would be interesting to see the age breakdown of these "excess deaths." I believe I'd also read of an increase in suicides during the lockdown period. One benefit of the lockdowns was a decrease in traffic deaths, though, due to decreased commuting/travel.
Positive tests now are a lot different than positive with symptoms. On CT when the plague leaked out of NYC, you had to show symptoms before you even had a shot at getting tested, even then you might not have gotten tested. Now. just about anyone can get a test. Tests now are capturing a ton of asymptomatic cases yet we are less than 1/20 of the peak positive cases. Two weeks ago over a 3 day weekend the trsted 50k over a 3 day weekendgo back to April at our peak, that was a whole month of testing. Most of these cases in college, kids show no symtoms and 99+% will be just fine.
According to this:
Only 9210 of the approx. 153,000 CV deaths were attributable to CV alone. The other deaths (94% of the total) had other serious illnesses as a complication, and the majority were of advanced age.
Based on this it appears that CV is not the cause of "excess deaths." The lockdowns cause a great deal of depression and anxiety in older people, especially those in nursing homes. Would be interesting to see the age breakdown of these "excess deaths." I believe I'd also read of an increase in suicides during the lockdown period. One benefit of the lockdowns was a decrease in traffic deaths, though, due to decreased commuting/travel.
Ah, The Gateway Pundit, required reading, along with Infowars for the tinfoil hat crowd.
Revenge coming. The trees at Toomer’s Corner soon will be infected with COVID-19.
Can you please help me find the data that shows what you are saying? I'm looking at the CDC document that your linked article references and I may not be looking in the right place (Table 3?). TIAAccording to this:
Only 9210 of the approx. 153,000 CV deaths were attributable to CV alone. The other deaths (94% of the total) had other serious illnesses as a complication, and the majority were of advanced age.
Based on this it appears that CV is not the cause of "excess deaths." The lockdowns cause a great deal of depression and anxiety in older people, especially those in nursing homes. Would be interesting to see the age breakdown of these "excess deaths." I believe I'd also read of an increase in suicides during the lockdown period. One benefit of the lockdowns was a decrease in traffic deaths, though, due to decreased commuting/travel.
Agreed. My point is the flu argument is faulty. The same points you made, which I agree with, can also be used when discussing the impact of the flu.
Some facts straight from the University of Alabama:
https://uasystem.edu/covid-19-dashboard/
Entry testing to return to campus resulted in 310 / 29,938, or 1% with COVID.
COVID positive students not allowed to return to campus.
In first 8 days (Aug. 19 - 27) 1,063 positives among students. This would be 3% of entire student body.
Not clear how many tests were actually done, so we don’t know true percent yet, but it is already 3x of those that tested positive and didn’t return to campus.
University of Alabama requested that Tuscaloosa mayor close bars because of the problem, which he did.
Undoubtedly, some students brought it with them, but many more got after returning to Tuscaloosa.
I remember back in March when everybody was screaming that the "flu only kills 37K a year in the U.S!" COVID is up to 175K and we have four months left. We are currently at 1K a month. If the flu was killing a thousand people a month you'd see a lot more documentation of infections. It's like people refuse to actually pay attention to why this virus is so dangerous. It's dangerous because it spreads easy, people can go two weeks without showing symptoms if they show any, or show no symptoms at all. The very reason you find this virus meaningless are the very reasons why it's so dangerous. People who are infected can walk around having no idea they are carrying a virus that has already killed 175K in 9 months all the while spreading it to others, who will in turn spread it to others. It's why we are at 175K right now.
Not really. That’s 3% of student population and herd immunity is maybe 60%.
The equivalent would be someone making 50K a year saying that they are soon looking at being a millionaire.
Not to mention that herd immunity only matters if people already have antibodies. If it hits everyone at once then then % of herd immunity doesn’t matter. For instance there was an outbreak at a camp in GA. Of those tested, 260 of 344 were positive or 76%. This was 45% of total campers but some may be higher as out of state campers results were not available. The campers were sent home between 3 - 6 days after the camp started and all had been COVID negative prior to attending.
Herd immunity is a pipe dream in the initial outbreaks at a university.
University of Alabama orders faculty to keep quiet about outbreak
Administration officials at the University of Alabama have ordered the school’s professors to keep quiet about the coronavirus amid an outbreak that infected more than 500 students during the first week of classes. Faculty in multiple departments said they received emails this week telling them...
I do not like the flu argument.
The flu has been around for generations.
This is more like when the colonists brought chicken pox to America.
LdN
I do think the number of deaths is important but why aren’t we getting more data on the percentage of death from people testing positive is it going up or down? and what about hospitalizations up or down? - we were told the goal was to flatten the curve and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed but now it seems the only statistic I see is total deaths which of course will always be going up until no one dies but is this the best way to see how we are doing with the virus.
I agree with almost everything you said except when you discuss danger.
This virus has shown statistically that if you are under 65 and healthy your risk of serious affects is near zero.
Yes it spreads quickly.
Yes people can go two weeks without symptoms and spread it.
Factually though, healthy people should have less concern about covid than many other diseases.
LdN
Well, 175K people have died from it. We are at 1K dying from it a day. It blows the "this is just the flu" argument out of the water. Nobody is disputing what you're saying, but the fact that it spreads so easy for the reasons why I explained is why we are at 1K a day dying right now from this virus. By the end of the year we will be over 200K people in the U.S. dead from this. Hell, we will likely be closer to a quarter million if not there.
Nobody is saying "these college kids are all going to die" or even "a lot of college kids are going to die" from this. What will happen is they will spread it to others, who will spread it to others, who will spread it to others and the death rate will continue to grow because people who are at risk will contract it. And the worst part is if we ignore this people won't even know they are spreading a virus that will probably kill a quarter million people in this country alone in 2020.
The death rate is declining. Not rising.
States have reopened and after a few weeks the rate is declining.
Noone said it is just the flu.
The goal was to flatten the curve. That happened.
About 8k people die per day in the us. Statistically incremental deaths due to covid has gone to almost zero.
LdN
Here is the chart of excess deaths...
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov
You can quote the 1k per day number all day long but this chart shows that those people would have died from other similar diseases.
LdN
At least they are giving it a shot, unlike our turd conference and those teams that pretend to be a conference on the west coast.
Here are the current numbers.
Two weeks ago we hit the highest per day deaths since May. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/08/us-sees-highest-covid-19-daily-death-toll-may
As far as daily, here is the last week of deaths.
8/24 - 510
8/25 - 1,290
8/26 - 1,289
8/27 - 1,143
8/28 - 1,105
8/29 - 954
8/30 - 338 (so far confirmed today)
The last week so far is an average of 947 and todays number is not the final number. We will still be averaging 1K deaths a day after the final numbers for today are in.
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
And to your other point, there were tons of people, including in this thread, that are or have compared this to the flu. It was a common talking about early on, that this is no more deadly than the flu. It has been repeated ad nauseam and even though the death toll from COVID is coming on five times the amount of the flu people still compare it. Just look at the post I quoted.
Okay, so you are maybe 15 - 20 weeks away from herd immunity on campus if the current rate holds. Is that soon?
There is no way that if the current rate holds that Alabama will stay in-person for another 4 to 5 months. Maybe another week or two before they face pressure from local and state officials. For comparison, UNC went to all virtual instruction after about 130 cases in the first week (currently around 1,000 cases) and Notre Dame went to a two week pause and currently has over 500 cases.
Really just stating that I don’t believe those numbers. My guess is a ton of pent up cases
The facts you cite and the conclusions you draw are two different things. Your conclusions are certainly disputable and not realistic.
1. Since Feb. 1, their are 6,640 reported deaths due to influenza. That covers the last two months of flu season and 5 months where the flu isn't widely circulating.
Conservatively, the number of reported deaths will likely be 10 - 12,000 between Feb. 2020 and Feb. 2021.
Further, the numbers you cite are estimated deaths which is based on number of actual deaths, hospitalization, and flu testing and are significantly higher numbers than the reported deaths. Over the last 10 years, the estimated ranges vary from 12,000 - 61,000 with an average around maybe 37,000 estimated deaths. COVID may thin the older vulnerable population to an extent, but the actual flu numbers since COVID are still in line with past years.
Deducting all of the estimated flu deaths from the known COVID deaths is invalid. People are still dying of influenza so to pretend that COVID is just wiping out all of the flu deaths is not science based in any stretch of the imagination.
2) PA is in the top 5 for percent of deaths in nursing homes. So using that number with the national number of coronavirus cases is inappropriate. The national average of COVID deaths in nursing homes to total deaths is around 40%.
Nearly One-Third of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes (Published 2021)
The virus has devastated residents and staff members in more than 32,000 long-term care facilities across the country.
www.nytimes.com
Secondly, you double count by subtracting the influenza deaths and then deducting nursing home deaths. Many many influenza deaths are also from nursing homes. Even if you want to write off everyone from the nursing home as of zero importance, the number you'd get to is 40% of 180,000, or around 72,000 deaths, which leaves around 108,000 remaining. Certainly many people, myself included, wouldn't totally discount the life of the elderly or vulnerable. But even if you were to, then the argument you'd make is that the states with the highest percent of nursing home deaths are actually doing the best job at controlling COVID mortality. Seems laughable, but if that is the position you take then you should be thrilled with the job that PA has done.
3) Again, not sure why deaths above 65 shouldn't just be written off in terms of public health. The percent of deaths under 65 for COVID (33K/180K = ~20%) is similar to the percent of deaths from coronary heart disease. Approximately, 20% of the 365,000 deaths from coronary heart disease are < 65 years old.
In addition to the 1200 infected students, 168 employees and staff are infected. Tuscaloosa bars have been ordered closed in order to control the spread but it’s possible the U of A may go all virtual in response to the pandemic. It will be interesting to see how quickly these numbers escalate given the tendency for college kids to party and socialize.
Between March 1 and August 1, the US had 213,500 more deaths than usual based on the previous 5 years. In fact most common causes of death are actually down for this period ( other than Covid) . This suggests Covid deaths are undercounted by at least 50,000. This is to be expected given the number of deaths to poor and homeless people who didn’t die in a hospitalHere are the current numbers.
Two weeks ago we hit the highest per day deaths since May. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/08/us-sees-highest-covid-19-daily-death-toll-may
As far as daily, here is the last week of deaths.
8/24 - 510
8/25 - 1,290
8/26 - 1,289
8/27 - 1,143
8/28 - 1,105
8/29 - 954
8/30 - 338 (so far confirmed today)
The last week so far is an average of 947 and todays number is not the final number. We will still be averaging 1K deaths a day after the final numbers for today are in.
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
And to your other point, there were tons of people, including in this thread, that are or have compared this to the flu. It was a common talking about early on, that this is no more deadly than the flu. It has been repeated ad nauseam and even though the death toll from COVID is coming on five times the amount of the flu people still compare it. Just look at the post I quoted.
You’re right. We will never know how many people for sure died from this but it will be more than we have data for.
