Univ. of Alabama with 1200 positive cases.

ClarkstonMark

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ASU Tempe has 200+ cases in the first week (0.6% of students) - all are quarantined. Monitoring this. Another week or 2 and they will run out of quarantine space and I assume shut campus down
Stating the obvious, but it is not spreading from attending class ... it is spreading from college kids socializing inside apartments/dorms
 

Obliviax

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Aug 21, 2001
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I think we need to begin to define what a "positive case" means.

The entire NFL has one guy out for COVID. The CDC put out a report saying that only 6% of all fatalities didn't have some kind of contributing condition that may have caused the person's death. The State of MN put out a report stating that more people died with COVOD over the age of 90 than under the age of 65. In Ohio. over half of COVID related deaths were over 80 years of age. 75% over the age of 70. CDC also put out a notice stating that people were not contagious unless they were symptomatic.
 

roswelllion

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Your thoughts?
Here are my thoughts.

Your thoughts?
This thread will be filled with folks who say this is no worse than the flu, and let's go party on one side and we should cancel everything and hide under our beds with masks on, on the other. Here are mine.
. This had to be expected when you put thousands of healthy feeling teenagers together.
. Many of these positives seem to be occurring right away making me think many "brought it with them"
. Context is important. Huge spikes in positives sounds bad but if 95% are asymptomatic is it really? So it isn't "all about football" if you question hospitalizations etc.
. To the "all about football" accusations, many folks and I include myself never suggested the virus wasn't potentially serious or without risk. For me it was where is the risk the greatest and smallest. At home? In the general student population? Or with a high [not 100%] level of supervision and discipline of the football program?
. It seems to the extent possible quarantining on campus seems safer than sending kids home. All indications are this is the safest group to risk getting further infections than parents etc at home.

Finally a question. Did these schools require kids get tested before they cam back to campus? It seems they should have. If they did does that mean somewhere between a negative test and arriving back on campus they got infected?
 
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Obliviax

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Here are my thoughts. T


This thread will be filled with folks who say this is no worse than the flu, and let's go party on one side and we should cancel everything and hide under our beds with masks on, on the other. Here are mine.
. This had to be expected when you put thousands of healthy feeling teenagers together.
. Many of these positives seem to be occurring right away making me thing many "brought it with them"
. Context is important. Huge spikes in positives sounds bad but if 95% are asymptomatic is it really? So it isn't "all about football" if you question hospitalizations etc.
. To the "all about football" accusations many folks and I include myself never suggested the virus wasn't potentially serious or without risk. For me it was where is the risk the greatest and smallest. At home? In the general student population? Or with a high [not 100%] level of supervision and discipline of the football program?
. It seems to the extent possible quarantining on campus seems safer than sending kids home. All indications are this is the safest group to risk getting further infections than parents etc at home.

Finally a question. Did these schools require kids get tested before they cam back to campus? It seems they should have. If they did does that mean somewhere between a negative test and arriving back on campus they got infected?
Also...the article states that there are 30,000 students and 1200 tested positive? If they were NOT infected before class started two weeks ago, we really are looking at hitting "herd immunity" soon on that campus.
 

roswelllion

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We will soon hit 200k deaths. Even if 50% were misreported, as many like to argue, it will dwarf deaths caused by the flu.
C'mon, very few are arguing this isn't serious to SOME FOLKS. To be fair look at the stats for this age group starting out as healthy young adults. I suspect the flu deaths and COVID deaths may look quite similar. [note I haven't done this so I could be wrong]

Using 200k deaths when 150k will have been over the age of 70 and probably 180k will have been over the age of 55 or with some attached serious health issues is not productive to a discussion about college campuses.
 

ClarkstonMark

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Also...the article states that there are 30,000 students and 1200 tested positive? If they were NOT infected before class started two weeks ago, we really are looking at hitting "herd immunity" soon on that campus.
Regarding my son at ASU ... he is thinking similarly, with the thought that ASU can have 100% in person classes in the spring semester. But he is really hoping personally to not be one of the herd that gets coronavirus.
 
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Obliviax

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C'mon, very few are arguing this isn't serious to SOME FOLKS. To be fair look at the stats for this age group starting out as healthy young adults. I suspect the flu deaths and COVID deaths may look quite similar. [note I haven't done this so I could be wrong]

Using 200k deaths when 150k will have been over the age of 70 and probably 180k will have been over the age of 55 or with some attached serious health issues is not productive to a discussion about college campuses.
that's right. People want to make things black and white. In ohio, over 50% of these deaths would have occurred naturally, without COVID according to the state. So when you start to peel away the layers of this onion (deaths from normal flu, deaths of elderly/nursing homes, deaths from early mismanagement/treatment, etc.) you see a much different picture. Maybe "real" deaths from people not already compromised is 50k? As horrible as that is, think of the associated damage with lost research money, bankruptcies, divorce, physical abuse, drug abuse, alcoholism, etc. It gets pretty clear that mass shutdowns aren't worth the cost.

A measured, localized and monitored recovery is the correct path. The "fear porn" of articles like this are damaging. The idea of positive tests needs to be redefined.
 

ga.lion

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We will soon hit 200k deaths. Even if 50% were misreported, as many like to argue, it will dwarf deaths caused by the flu.
Horrible virus that I caught despite precautions and survived. I think his point is deaths of 21-25 year old kids in good health will be very very rare. This virus targeted the old, those with weak immune systems, and those with other underlying conditions. Hopefully these Alabama kids all avoid serious illness.
 

kentuckycb

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C'mon, very few are arguing this isn't serious to SOME FOLKS. To be fair look at the stats for this age group starting out as healthy young adults. I suspect the flu deaths and COVID deaths may look quite similar. [note I haven't done this so I could be wrong]

Using 200k deaths when 150k will have been over the age of 70 and probably 180k will have been over the age of 55 or with some attached serious health issues is not productive to a discussion about college campuses.
Exactly...context, perspective...raw numbers usually do not tell the story.
 

interrobang

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We will soon hit 200k deaths. Even if 50% were misreported, as many like to argue, it will dwarf deaths caused by the flu.
Someday someone will do a study and conclude that only 25% of those counted as a covid death would have still been alive in 2021 without covid.
 
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Obliviax

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Someday someone will do a study and conclude that only 25% of those counted as a covid death would have still been alive in 2021 without covid.
Not sure why the media isn't reporting it....but I've read two studies at the state level (MN and OH). The average age of a COVID 19 death is actually higher than the average life expectancy.
 

LionDeNittany

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We will soon hit 200k deaths. Even if 50% were misreported, as many like to argue, it will dwarf deaths caused by the flu.
Over 400mm people in the United States.

The term dwarf aptly applies to the number of deaths from covid vs the us population

Then when one applies science and math you can see most were ill and elderly and on their way out.

LdN
 

Obliviax

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I was the first person to post on this after coming back from a trip to san fran in Feb. I was alarmed because early death rates were in the 2% range and posted that, if this gets out, we are looking at several million dead. Many early predictors were in the 1.5 to 2m dead....and that was through April.

So here's the deal, 170k people have died in the USA
  1. how many would have died from the flu anyway? CDC says between 24k and 62k. Let's say 50k. That means the real death toll is 120k
  2. About 68% of COVID Deaths are for those already in assisted in PA (75% in Ohio) living (meaning, already compromised). 45% of 120k leaves 39k deaths for those that would not have died from the normal flu and were not already compromised.
  3. According to this site, about 33,000 have died that are under the age of 65. Nobody knows, of that, who may have been comprised (cancer, sickle cell, diabetes, etc.)
  4. Now that we've been fighting this thing, the percentage of deaths is much, much lower but I can't find anyone who has posted morbidity rates by month. (almost seems like they are hiding this, wouldn't this be an important stat to track?)
So, given 1, 2, 3 above (which are facts that are not disputed) and 4 (which makes sense but can't be quantified) we are shutting down entire regions for ~ 33k deaths? Wouldn't it be much smarter to provide a safe shelter for those in nursing homes, above the age of 65 and/or compromised? Why are we shutting down schools, football, businesses, and others? Why are we ruining businesses across the north of PA who haven't been affected, almost, at all?

 

blion72

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Your thoughts?
are they testing asymptomatic? what is the typical positive rate? I thought it was in the range of 3-5%. if that was the case, the school should have planned on a "quarantine capacity" to account for this magnitude.

i think most schools told students to self check the symptom chart and remain remote if their symptom app said dont come to school.
 
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Obliviax

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what it means is that NY has turned it around, and Alabama apparently has not
maybe...fact is, the "number of positive cases" goes up and down. It is a factor of number of tests given, herd immunity, age, severity, etc. I know a lot of people that have gotten tested for work or school, tested positive, and had no idea. In the meantime, Manhattan has over 11,000 homes for sale which is about double the norm.

so suggesting NY did it better (with their death rates) isn't really relevant. And saying that they are in better shape now, is also immaterial.
 

LionDeNittany

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I was the first person to post on this after coming back from a trip to san fran in Feb. I was alarmed because early death rates were in the 2% range and posted that, if this gets out, we are looking at several million dead. Many early predictors were in the 1.5 to 2m dead....and that was through April.

So here's the deal, 170k people have died in the USA
  1. how many would have died from the flu anyway? CDC says between 24k and 62k. Let's say 50k. That means the real death toll is 120k
  2. About 68% of COVID Deaths are for those already in assisted in PA (75% in Ohio) living (meaning, already compromised). 45% of 120k leaves 39k deaths for those that would not have died from the normal flu and were not already compromised.
  3. According to this site, about 33,000 have died that are under the age of 65. Nobody knows, of that, who may have been comprised (cancer, sickle cell, diabetes, etc.)
  4. Now that we've been fighting this thing, the percentage of deaths is much, much lower but I can't find anyone who has posted morbidity rates by month. (almost seems like they are hiding this, wouldn't this be an important stat to track?)
So, given 1, 2, 3 above (which are facts that are not disputed) and 4 (which makes sense but can't be quantified) we are shutting down entire regions for ~ 33k deaths? Wouldn't it be much smarter to provide a safe shelter for those in nursing homes, above the age of 65 and/or compromised? Why are we shutting down schools, football, businesses, and others? Why are we ruining businesses across the north of PA who haven't been affected, almost, at all?

Again you are trying to use logic, science and reason with people who are emotional train wrecks.
 

Obliviax

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Again you are trying to use logic, science and reason with people who are emotional train wrecks.
its crazy....really. We were told to "follow the science". Now, these statistics are quite clear. It MUST be stupidity or an agenda.

IMHO, we followed the science to lower the curve. Mission accomplished. We now have best practices that drastically reduce morbidity and increase avoidance. Our medical system is performing with excess capacity. Time to move on in a controlled and propper fashion.
 

Obliviax

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are they testing asymptomatic? what is the typical positive rate? I thought it was in the range of 3-5%. if that was the case, the school should have planned on a "quarantine capacity" to account for this magnitude.

i think most schools told students to self check the symptom chart and remain remote if their symptom app said dont come to school.
if 1200 of 33,000 tested "positive" that is a hell of a number. It is actually a "hard to believe" number if they are suggesting these are a) symptomatic and b) currently infected.
 

LionDeNittany

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its crazy....really. We were told to "follow the science". Now, these statistics are quite clear. It MUST be stupidity or an agenda.

IMHO, we followed the science to lower the curve. Mission accomplished. We now have best practices that drastically reduce morbidity and increase avoidance. Our medical system is performing with excess capacity. Time to move on in a controlled and propper fashion.
It has been that time for months.
The numbers were clear in May.

There is a good cdc chart which shows excess deaths due to covid. As a new disease this should be expected. New disease new deaths.

The timeline is often ignored though. It has been about 9 months of covid in the US.

It ran through the entire nyc population. Now working slowly through the rest of the country.

LdN
 
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BUFFALO LION

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Take out NYC, and New York State has fewer cases currently than the University of Alabama does
PLEASE "take out NYC"!!!!!!!!!!!

To use New York State as a good example as to how to handle COVID, you need to talk to people that actually live here. This state was needlessly turned into a freakin train wreak.

Comparing 1200 young, probably asymptomatic students at Alabama to some of the things that were allowed to happen up here is like comparing a firecracker to the Atomic bomb.
 

YogiMan71

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How many board members believe the 3 remaining conferences will be able to complete all their currently scheduled games for the entire season ? If it isn’t 100% how legitimate would any conference or national Championship really be ? I will be surprised if all 3 conferences have a complete season without cancelled games or quarantines.
 

PearlSUJam

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How many board members believe the 3 remaining conferences will be able to complete all their currently scheduled games for the entire season ? If it isn’t 100% how legitimate would any conference or national Championship really be ? I will be surprised if all 3 conferences have a complete season without cancelled games or quarantines.
I think what's telling is they have a schedule posted for all the games but no times or channels past week 1.
 
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