The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.
I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?
Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.
2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3
If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.
I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.
I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?
Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.
2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3
If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.
I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.