So, has Pat Chambers saved his job...
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Of course. But being able to pluck a top player or two from Philly and the DMV every year would go a long way (it’s where the relationships with the AAU programs and handlers also come into play).
Yes, but those schools may not have players that you want every year and when they've got players that you really want, so does everyone else.
The money is already there. The want to invest in the program is already there. Sandy's not going to fire Pat just to fire him though. He (and by that I really mean the players) may (or may not have) bought him at least one more season. But if/when he gets fired she plans on investing in the program and wants to leave a mark as the AD who made PSU basketball a thing at this school.
Of course there are other variables, and if you want to dig in your heels, you'll have a viable argument. One notable stat from the NFL: 36 of 39 teams (92 percent) which have won or lost an unsustainable amount of close games (7 points or less) in single season over the last 11 years had their total record move in a predictable way the next year.
http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/nfl-s-close-game-analytics-how-lucky-wins-or-losse
Season hasn't finished yet has it?
Lol ... from what I know him being gone was a given. The record in February (and now March) may have swayed Sandy's mind just enough to keep him here for at least one more year. I'm glad we won these games but it legitimately might have kept him around longer.
In my personal opinion, Chambers always starts slow and takes November - January off before all of a sudden looking good in February/March. I've been a huge Chambers fan but I think its a time as good as any this year that we make a move. Then again i'm not in the AD and have no say in the matter so ... there's that
What realistically is next year? You lose Reaves and if I had to guess one of Stevens/Watkins. You’ve got that brockington transfer becoming eligible and some freshmen. I don’t think you can realistically say under this scenario that the likely scenario is to make the dance. Maybe NIT. Then what do you do after 9 straight years without dancing? It’s just kicking the can down the road expecting different results. Maybe this team could get to the dance next year only losing Reaves, but who knows. After 8 years of sample size, many of us have just seen enough. I like Pat, but think it’s time for a change.
It probably wouldn’t be at 10.5 (I’ll give Nebraska a half, and exclude Rutgers/NW) of the other 13 B1G schools, which is again why this is an uphill battle.What would it cost to get rid of Chambers?
Kinda' interesting that no one knows that.... isn't it?
That is most certainly a meaningful parameter (or at least it should be) in the whole situation.
What would it cost to get rid of Chambers?
Kinda' interesting that no one knows that.... isn't it?
That is most certainly a meaningful parameter (or at least it should be) in the whole situation.
Well, Sandy knows.....give her a call!
We would have fared better if we could have only scored more points. That's the only thing missing! We're so close!
We are in a 14 team conference in which 13 teams spend more $ on men’s basketball than us.
I don’t know what the answer is but it seems we have the same conversation every year.
The general consensus after last year was that nothing short of an ncaa bid this year was acceptable.
Fast forward to this year. The team was horrible the first half of the season but got a mini run of wins late. There will be no NCAA bid (baring a major miracle in the big ten tourney). Yet here we are again talking about “next year”.
That, I’m sure, will be followed by bad losses early next year and another subpar season with the usual list of excuses.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they’ve won a few games recently but let’s not get carried away. Illinois has a record of 11-20. Rutgers is 14-16. Nebraska is 16-15. Northwestern is 13-18.
The 2 very nice wins were over 22-9 Maryland and 26-5 Michigan.
That said, at the end of the day it’s year 8 for Chambers and Penn State has a losing record. They are 14-17 overall and tied for 10th in the conference.
So we are left with the same question that was asked in this debate a year ago. What year is the deadline to make the ncaa tournament or move on with a new coach?
The general consensus after last year was that nothing short of an ncaa bid this year was acceptable.
Fast forward to this year. The team was horrible the first half of the season but got a mini run of wins late. There will be no NCAA bid (baring a major miracle in the big ten tourney). Yet here we are again talking about “next year”.
That, I’m sure, will be followed by bad losses early next year and another subpar season with the usual list of excuses.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they’ve won a few games recently but let’s not get carried away. Illinois has a record of 11-20. Rutgers is 14-16. Nebraska is 16-15. Northwestern is 13-18.
The 2 very nice wins were over 22-9 Maryland and 26-5 Michigan.
That said, at the end of the day it’s year 8 for Chambers and Penn State has a losing record. They are 14-17 overall and tied for 10th in the conference.
So we are left with the same question that was asked in this debate a year ago. What year is the deadline to make the ncaa tournament or move on with a new coach?
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I can hear her message now, telling you to hold for the directory and then push 001-999 depending on which Ast AD, Asso AD or Interning AD you want to talk to.
Actually, statistics show that NO MATTER WHO IS COACHING, when you come down to the final minute or two, in a close game, chances are pretty much a coin flip as to whether you will win or lose.
Coach K's W/L in two possession games the last four years:
2018-19: 5-3
2017-18: 3-7
2016-17: 5-4
2015-16: 4-6
Pretty much anyone that you look up will have something similar.
See Erial_Lion’s post above. I thought this was common knowledge. We spend less than everyone but Northwestern I believe. And it’s a WIDE margin between us and the upper half teams.
I watch the basketball games when on TV. The stands ate empty. I’m sure many who are wishing for Chambers to be dismissed are part of the empty seats.
Penn State will never draw big crowds, game in and game out. Not many will plan ahead to go to a game on a Tuesday or Wed nite, because a half hour out of State College you got some nasty roads to travel in the winter.
It is what it is
Penn State will never draw big crowds, game in and game out. Not many will plan ahead to go to a game on a Tuesday or Wed nite, because a half hour out of State College you got some nasty roads to travel in the winter.
It is what it is
As of a couple of years ago, we spent in the neighborhood of $5.8M per year on men’s basketball—last in the conference and last or close to last in the P5 conferences. Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern spent in the $7.3-$7.7M range. Meatchicken, OSU, Wisky spent in the $8.9-9.8M range. Meatchicken Light was $14.4 and Indiana was $12.3 —both more than double what we spent. And Indiana, my understanding, has increased their spending in the past two years since hiring Miller as their coach. I think I read they now spend over $15M. That’s the kind of discrepancy we’re talking about. At the lower levels, it’s probably mostly coaching salaries and recruiting/travel budgets. At the higher levels, it’s everything. And that’s operating expenses, not one time facilities improvements.
It can be a difficult drive from out of town in the winter but the BJC holds roughly 15,000 people. IIRC State College has 40,000 residents and there are another 47,000 students. The students alone could fill up the arena if they wanted to but there’s just no interest due to the product on the court.
Except for Ed DeChellis in the late aughts.
Correct - but not in the way that most on this board would assume.
2008: 6-3
2009: 11-5
Then again, he went 3-11 in 2010, to make it 20-10 over those three seasons (just what you would expect).
All well and good...But what do we not have money to spend on? What can't we get? Everybody claims we don't support but nobody puts forth specifics,,,,just money? for what?
Obvious things like recruiting, marketing, player amenities, facilities, who you're playing in your "buy" games (greatly improved for us this year).
But beyond that, coaching budgets. What are you paying your head coach? And what is his budget for a staff?
I watch our games and see Urgo, Ferry, and Freeman. I watch Indiana play and I see Archie talking with Bruiser Flint. Illinois has Orlando Antigua. Izzo has Doug Wojcik on staff. Nebraska has Jim Molinari. Rutgers has Karl Hobbs. Billy Donlon is at Northwestern. Maryland has Matt Brady and Kevin Broadus. Etc, etc, etc. We have the least experienced staff in the Big Ten, and it was even worse a few years ago before we added Ferry. A guy like Kanaskie would be a good upgrade to our staff today (though, as I've said before, I'd love Dr John Gianinni). Pat is a "4" as an in-game coach IMO, and adding a great assistant could help a lot.
As was already stated, the biggest difference between us and the teams on the lower end of the spending range is salaries. Bigger head coach salary, bigger pool to pay assistants, athletic training, recruiting coordinator, player development, operations, etc. We didn’t have a nutrition bar until recently. It’s not just building it, you have to stock it year round. Not a huge budget line item, but stuff like that adds up. There was a tourney Pat wanted to go to in the past couple of years, but was nixed due to the cost. Allegedly.
Lar you’re better than this. Coaching matters the last 2 minutes. Also, the teams taking K to the wire aren’t Bradley and DePaul. They’re teams coached by the Roy’s of the world obviously with some exceptions. Coaching is most important in the final 2 mins. Pull up any stat you want, that’s hogwash. Tell me what offense Pat ran the final 2 mins in almost all the close games. Iso ball. YMCA pickup league offense.
Also, what’s your definition of a close game? I mean yeah I would bet against coach K down 4 with 60 seconds left at UNC too. He’s an awful x and o coach, only a fool would deny that, and I know you’re no fool
Close game = game decided by two possessions or less (or went to OT).
This is one of those things that is just counter-intuitive. That's the great thing about advanced metrics. They open your eyes up to lots of things that aren't readily apparent. What those numbers tell you is that in any given two minute stretch, the luck of the draw (bounce of the ball, whatever) is way more important than who you have drawing up the plays. Over the previous 38 minutes, a coach can have an impact, although it's probably less than you think, but coming down the stretch it's mostly luck.
There is lots of analysis that supports this view.
So a team down 9 and hits a 3 at the buzzer to lose by 6 is included in these numbers as a “close game”? Do you think he’s a good tactical x and o coach or not? Just a simple question
Its telling that we are actually debating if Chambers saved his job with a losing record of 14-17, (tied for 10th in the big ten).
Not sure you’d find too many other schools in D1 basketball to say that.
So, you’re saying we’re special?Not sure you’d find too many other schools in D1 basketball to say that.
So, you’re saying we’re special?
No, what makes PSU special is that it has a coach with an eight year record under .500.
So, you’re saying we’re special?
It depends. Do you mean we are special or “special”?
That's irrelevant to the discussion. The discussion is whether end game results in close games are primarily determined by the coach or luck. The answer to that question has statistically been shown to be luck.
When the other team is equally good with similar talent, I can buy your argument. When you’re losing close games to teams that aren’t very good or have less talent, that’s not luck, it’s coaching. Most games with a disparity of talent aren’t close at the end, so your statistics only tell part of the story.
Yup. And a team who is in a close game but gets intentionally fouled in a comeback attempt by the losing team and sinks the foul shots to seal the victory can be excluded. It works both ways.
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