Roar's NCAA Review, PSU-only (All weight classes complete)

[RoarLions1]

125 #23 Robbie Howard

#10 Malik Heinselman is up first for Howard. The Buckeye is a familiar opponent, as Howard lost both bouts this year by identical 5-2 scores. I was hoping to see improvement in the second bout, but didn’t. That means less at NCAA’s however, so if the true freshman Nittany Lion can keep from letting the bright lights affect his wrestling, it’s in the realm of possibility we see a different outcome. Still, Heinselman is favored, so I’m going to wrestlebacks after a brief pause. The brief pause is a mention that if Howard does win, his likely opponent would be Taylor LaMont (UVU), a 9-1 fifth-year junior (injured for all of 2019) in the second round.

#26 Jackson DiSario (STAN) will be his first round wrestleback opponent if the championship bracket goes chalk. DiSario was 7-3, losing to three good wrestlers, but not beating anyone of note. In fact, his schedule was rather weak. Calling this a rather easy Howard feels right, but again, we’re talking about a true freshman and a first time at NCAA's. Have fun, young man!!

The #9 Devin Schroder (PUR)/#8 RayVon Foley (MSU) loser in the championship brackets, unless either one loses in the first round, is the likely next opponent. We know a good bit about both as Schroder is a senior, Foley a junior, so they are seasoned Big Ten veterans. To me, this is a tougher match-up than Heinselman, after watching all three over the years. A win by Howard here gets him to the round of 16.

The winner of #17 Killian Cardinale (WVU) / #16 Codi Russell (APP) in the first round has the unenviable task of facing Spencer Lee. Whoever it is, they drop to wrestlebacks and could be Howard’s opponent. At this point, I will say, that Howard still wrestling would be a fabulous run for the young man, though I want to play this out so you understand the challenging path. Cardinale finished 3rd at Big 12’s, and had wins over solid competition (Mastrogiovanni and Vega) to achieve that. Before that his record was so-so. Russell is on a 9-bout win streak, winning the Southern Conference title. Like Cardinale, the competition he faced during the regular season was not stellar. This is a winnable bout, more so than the last round, and gets the winner to the Round of 12. I will finish with noting that one more win earns All-American honors.

Good luck Robbie!

 

[KidDagger]

My prediction is Robbie loses to Malik(bad matchup).. then beats disario... then loses to shroder/Foley

 

[johnstownsteel]

My prediction is Robbie loses to Malik(bad matchup).. then beats disario... then loses to shroder/Foley

I got Robbie losing to Lamont in the second round.

 

[McScoreley]

My prediction is Robbie loses to Malik(bad matchup).. then beats disario... then loses to shroder/Foley

Yup ... tough bracket. Third times the charm maybe for Heinselman? *Sigh*

 

[Lyons212]

Yup ... tough bracket. Third times the charm maybe for Heinselman? *Sigh*

Just another head scratching decision by the NCAA. Howard and Heinselman wrestling for a third time in a month when the season has only been a few months and if you have 10 matches in at this time it is a lot. No reason why one of them could not be moved up or down one seed to avoid this type of matchup in the first round.

 

[El-Jefe]

If Howard beats Heinselman and loses to LaMont:
1st consi is against the 24/25 loser (Gutierrez UTC or Treaster Navy)

It gets more convoluted with each consi round, but next would most likely be 15-18: McKee, Russell, Cardinale, or Surtin (Missouri).

After that, he would face the loser of the 4-5 quarters: Hildebrandt or Teske (or a lower seed if one of them is upset earlier).

Etc.

Winning the opener would give him a much easier path thru consis.

 

[johnstownsteel]

If Howard beats Heinselman and loses to LaMont:
1st consi is against the 24/25 loser (Gutierrez UTC or Treaster Navy)

It gets more convoluted with each consi round, but next would most likely be 15-18: McKee, Russell, Cardinale, or Surtin (Missouri).

After that, he would face the loser of the 4-5 quarters: Hildebrandt or Teske (or a lower seed if one of them is upset earlier).

Etc.

Winning the opener would give him a much easier path thru consis.

Yeah I was just looking at that myself if Howard could get past Heinselman. If theres a coaching staff out there that can plan a way for Robbie to turn that score around it's certainly ours.

 

[El-Jefe]

Just another head scratching decision by the NCAA. Howard and Heinselman wrestling for a third time in a month when the season has only been a few months and if you have 10 matches in at this time it is a lot. No reason why one of them could not be moved up or down one seed to avoid this type of matchup in the first round.

Be careful what you wish for -- move him up or down 3 spots and here are his matchups:
- 20 vs. 13 Cronin
- 21 vs. 12 DeAugustino (beat Howard)
- 22 vs. 11 Ragusin (Howard won)
- 24 vs. 9 Schroder
- 25 vs. 8 Foley
- 26 vs. 7 LaMont

Ragusin is the only matchup that's clearly better. 3 of them are clearly worse.

 

[Centuar94]

I like it. In my opinion Psu scouts and game plans better than everyone. Coaches will have a plan, hopefully RH executes.

 

[El-Jefe]

Yeah I was just looking at that myself if Howard could get past Heinselman. If theres a coaching staff out there that can plan a way for Robbie to turn that score around it's certainly ours.

Being a little more optimistic still:

if Howard gets past both Heinselman and LaMont, and then loses to Latona in the quarters, he'd face (most likely) DeAugustino or Cronin in the blood round.

 

[RoarLions1]

I'm fiddling with formats, looking for easier reads, with more info...

133 #2 Roman Bravo-Young

1st Round: (31) Sean Carter (APP) 14-6
#31 Sean Carter (APP) will be RBY’s first challenger. Carter was the Southern Conference champion at 133, though no wrestler of note was opposition. Nine of the sophomores wins this season were to guys ranked #100 or higher in WrestleStat, and two of his losses were to guys in the same range. He was bonused only once this season, but that’s more a result of the level of competition. This is a huge opportunity for an RBY bonus point win.

2nd Round: (15) Mosha Schwartz (UNCO) 6-4/(18) Kyle Burwick (WIS) 6-6 Winner
Schwartz was the B12 4th Place finisher, taking two thumpings along the way, one to Daton Fix (TF), the other to Zach Redding (MD). His regular season was so-so, nothing standing out. This is another opportunity for RBY to help the team and himself with bonus point(s).

We know more about Burwick, the RS freshman finished 5th at Big Ten’s. Regular season record was just average, and RBY did face him regular season, winning 11-6. Could be bonus, but at the very least an RBY win.

3rd Round: (7) Lucas Byrd (ILL) 11-2/(10) Louie Hayes (UVA) 10-4 Winner
Assuming both of these guys win in bouts in which they will be heavily favored in round 1, they will face each other in round 2, with the winner to meet Bravo-Young. Byrd is a solid redshirt freshman, finishing 3rd in the B1G tourney behind RBY and DeSanto. His regular season saw only two losses, both to DeSanto, though he closed the gap from an 18-6 MD to a 5-4 Decision. How much of that was the result of DeSanto’s hand injury, it’s hard to say. This should be a Bravo-Young win, though not likely to be bonus.

Hayes has been around much longer, as he’s a 5th year senior wrestling in his 3rd NCAA Championship. Hayes finished 3rd at the ACC’s. Three of his four losses were to Phillippi or Myers, no shame there, it looks like he beats the guys he should, and loses to the guys he should (based on rankings). He should lose to RBY.

4th Round: (3) Korbin Myers (VT) 8-0/(6) Matt Schmitt (MIZZ) 10-1 Winner
Myers is the real deal, winning the ACC Tournament, beating Micky Phillippi in the process. The 6th year senior is wrestling in his 4th NCAA Championship, though Round of 16 is his best result. He’s upped his game this season, so expect a close bout with RBY if he gets to round 4. RBY will be favored, and should move on.

Schmitt won the MAC title, and only has one blemish on his record, losing his first bout of the season. Along the way he has won against some good wrestlers, but hasn’t wrestled anyone near the top of this weight class. On paper, this should be an easier opponent than Myers.

FINALS: (1) Daton Fix (OKST) 9-0
I see no one in the top half of 133 that will challenge Fix, even #4 DeSanto or #5 Phillippi. An RBY vs Fix final should be low-scoring and very close.

 

[psumacw]

Just another head scratching decision by the NCAA. Howard and Heinselman wrestling for a third time in a month when the season has only been a few months and if you have 10 matches in at this time it is a lot. No reason why one of them could not be moved up or down one seed to avoid this type of matchup in the first round.

my opinion is that the committee should not consider who would face who when they're setting the seeds. they should discuss each wrestler's wins and losses and put them in order. if two guys match up who have hit earlier, so be it.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Adams and Buchanan hit in 2nd round.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

my opinion is that the committee should not consider who would face who when they're setting the seeds. they should discuss each wrestler's wins and losses and put them in order. if two guys match up who have hit earlier, so be it.

I would be happy with separating conference finalists.

 

[RoarLions1]

141 #2 Nick Lee (PSU) 8-1

1st Round: (31) Julian Flores (DREX) 6-3
Flores finished 4th at EIWA, and the 5th year senior is making his first NCAA appearance. His reward – facing Nick Lee in his first bout. Looking at Flores record, this one could be over early, hate to say.

2nd Round: (15) Clay Carlson (SDSU) 16-6/(18) Parker Filius (PUR) 7-7 Winner
Carlson was the 4th Place finisher at B12’s from the #3 seed. Lost to Demas, 3-2 along the way, also losing to Demas by the same score in the regular season. All but one of his losses this season were by three points or less, against some very good opposition. Lee should win, and win easily though, as he’s more offensive-minded than most. Question is will it be by bonus…on paper it should be close.

Filius is a guy we are more familiar with, coming from the B1G, where the junior finished 5th this year. Five of his losses this season were bonus-type, and Lee pinned him last season. If he is Lee’s opponent, it’s likely this will be a Lee bonus point win.

3rd Round: (7) Ian Parker (ISU) 13-2/(10) Zachary Sherman (UNC) 8-2 Winner
Parker finished 2nd at B12’s, losing to Demas in TB2. His other loss this season was to Missouri’s #6 seed Allan Hart. Parker also beat Demas at the dual. This bout should be fun. Parker isn’t the scoring dynamo that Lee is, but he wrestles all the top guys close. My opinion is that Eierman, Lee and Rivera are at a different level, however, so I’ll go with a close Lee win.

Sherman was the ACC runner-up losing to Tariq Wilson by major decision in the finals. This will be the junior’s 3rd trip to NCAA’s never finishing close to the money. Sherman’s regular season contained only two losses, both to Wilson, with a couple decent wins, by one or two points. This could and should be a bonus point win for Lee if Sherman gets past Parker.

4th Round: (3) Sebastian Rivera (RUT) 8-1/(6) Allan Hart (MIZZ) 13-1 Winner
Rivera vs Hart will be a terrific match. Hopefully it takes some of the steam out of both guys! We know Rivera, his only loss was in Sudden Victory to Lee this season. He has a sixth and a third at NCAA’s, both at 125, and was seeded top-8 last season at 133. A Rivera vs Lee match-up should be just as close as their B1G bout.

Hart surprisingly finished 3rd at the MAC Championship, falling to Bell of Rider in the semifinals. It was his only loss in a superb season. For the Mizzou junior, this is his second NCAA qualification, though there was no tournament last season. His best win was against #6 seed Ian Parker by 3, and looking at his results, he has a strong offense. Still, I doubt he’ll beat Rivera, so it is unlikely imo that Hart vs Lee will happen here.

FINALS: (1) Jaydin Eierman (IOWA) 8-0
141 is another weight class where the #1 seed looks like they have clear sailing to the finals. #4 Wilson is undefeated and quick as a cat, and #5 Demas has that upper body throw potential, but I see neither beating the crafty Eierman. I see a bout here where Eierman scores off his opponent’s attacks, so we may not see the Iowa wrestler shoot for an entire seven minutes again. Lee vs Eierman should be just as entertaining as the Big Ten final.

 

[RoarLions1]

Wrestlebacks can be perplexing with all the combinations and permutations. As the #12 seed, I see dropping from round #2, round #3, or round #4 all within the realm of possibility, so Berge has multiple possible paths. I could simply take the chalk route and drop him after round 2 of the championship bracket, but that wouldn't tell the whole picture.

157: (12) Brady Berge (PSU) 8-2

1st Round: (21) Andrew Cerniglia (NAVY) 8-1
Cerniglia is a true freshman wrestling in his first NCAA tournament. His lone loss was to Bucknell’s Jaden Fisher at EIWA’s, though he wrestled back and finished 3rd to earn a qualifier spot. His season was unspectacular, with six of his wins against guys ranked >100 in WrestleStat. His best win was against the #25 seed Parker Kropman (DREX) by TF. His record indicates he is offensive-minded and scores a lot of points, very much in contrast to Berge, who is better known for a stingy defense, though his offense came to life at B1G’s with three major decision wins. I am predicting a Berge win, but I’m not predicting bonus, though it could be close.

2nd Round: (5) Kaleb Young (IOWA) 5-1
Young will surely advance to round 2. The 5th year senior had a superb season, with his best wins being two tiebreaker victories vs #6 seed Brayton Lee. Young and Berge have never wrestled in college. I would expect a low scoring bout with only a takedown or two. From a team scoring standpoint, this has consequences, though maybe not as much as a casual observer thinks, as the loser here can make hay in wrestlebacks. I’ll note opponents for both a win and a loss here in the next paragraph.

3rd Round: (4) Jesse Dellavecchia (RID) 7-0 OR 2nd Round of Wrestlebacks: (22) Benjamin Barton (CAMP) 10-2 vs (27) Justin Ruffin (SIUE) 9-3 Winner
Staying in the Championship Bracket, a win vs Young will surely result in a bout vs Dellavecchia. The Rider senior is a 3-time NCAA qualifier, with round of 16 his best finish. That was two years ago, and he’s much-improved. He won the MAC title, beating #7 seeded Jarrett Jacques (MIZZ) in the finals 3-2. If this bout happens, expect a very low scoring match. Rider does not face the level of competition seen in the Big Ten, and I actually like this match-up better than the Young match-up in the previous round. I will not make a prediction here, but will continue to follow the championship bracket path in a paragraph below.

Barton finished 2nd at SoCon, and the senior is in his 2nd NCAA tournament. His season’s competition was weak, with the best wrestler he faced being #20 seed Cody Bond (APP), a bout that Barton lost. I would expect an easy Berge win if it goes this route.

Ruffin is a junior, qualifying for NCAA’s all three years. It appears he was injured at the MAC Championships, and his status is unknown. Based on his record, a healthy wrestler would be a heavy underdog to Berge. If it goes this route, expect a Berge win.

4th Round: (1) Ryan Deakin (NW) 6-0 OR Wrestlebacks 3rd Round: (13) Hunter Willits (ORST) 9-3/(20) Cody Bond (APP) 15-4 Winner OR Wrestlebacks 3rd Round: (7) Jarrett Jacques (MIZZ) 10-2/(10) Justin Thomas (OU) 11-3 Loser
We all know Deakin, I’m sure. I only see two guys that can challenge him in the entire bracket, Hidlay (NCST), and Carr (ISU).

Berge’s path in wrestlebacks depends on when he drops. In the event he loses in championship round two or three, it is two different places. Losing to Young drops him to bout 418 in the 2nd round of wrestlebacks, which is discussed above (Barton or Ruffin), then on to bout 479. Beating Young, then losing to Dellavecchia drops him to bout 537, which is the 4th round of wrestlebacks, also called the Round of 12, or the blood round. Confused? Grab a bracket -- it helps. At this point I’ll just mention a few facts about each possible opponent.

Bout #480: (13) Hunter Willits (ORST) 9-3 or (20) Cody Bond (APP) 15-4
Willits: 2nd Place PAC-12, solid but not spectacular record.
Bond: SoCon Champ, but with a weak resume
Willits would be the tougher of the two, and would likely be a close bout with Berge

Bout 537: (7) Jarrett Jacques (MIZZ) 10-2 or (10) Justin Thomas (OU) 11-3
Jacques: 2nd at MAC, losing to Dellavecchia. Only other loss was to David Carr.
Thomas: 3rd at B12’s, senior. Solid resume, only losses to Franek, Carr, and van der Merwe, all close.

I’ll stop here. Berge’s routes to All-American honors;

-- Win 3 bouts in the championship bracket, finish no lower than 6th.
-- Win 1 bout in championship bracket, drop to wrestlebacks, and then win 3 straight, guaranteed top-8
-- Win 2 bouts in championship bracket, drop to wrestlebacks, and then win 1 bout, guaranteed top-8

 

[tomsc]

Yup ... tough bracket. Third times the charm maybe for Heinselman? *Sigh*

We've had the 3rd time's the charm at 125 at a previous NCAA's! Remember Nico as a true FR losing twice during the season to both Sanders and Perelli and then knocking them both of in the quarters and semis respectively!

 

[RoarLions1]

165: (23) Joe Lee (PSU) 6-5

1st Round: (10) Travis Wittlake (OKST) 16-1
Wittlake is a sophomore, and finished 3rd at the Big12 tournament after losing in the semis to #9 seed Luke Weber in a bit of an upset. It was Wittlake’s only loss on the season. He scores a lot of points, so I would expect this match to be high scoring. Wittlake is favored for sure, but if Lee puts it all together, can go with anyone in the country. Win and it’s a rematch with Ethan Smith (OHST), but I’ll take him to wrestlebacks for his next bout.

1st Round Wrestlebacks: (26) Andrew Nicholson (CHAT) 12-3
Nicholson has #7 seed Ethan Smith in the first round and is odds-on to drop to wrestlebacks. He won the Southern Conference Championship and sports a solid record at 12-3. The junior’s best win however was against #28 seed Rodrick Mosley, as his schedule was weak. This should be a Lee win, though Nicholson does not appear to give up bonus points. Both wrestlers are qualifiers for the first time.

2nd Round of Wrestlebacks: (8) Shane Griffith (STAN) 6-1 / (9) Luke Weber (NDSU) 13-2 Loser
The 8/9 bout at 165 may contain the best wrestlers in that bout of any of the weight classes. Griffith alone, with a single loss in the past two years, to #2 seeded Anthony Valencia, is mind-boggling. I am so confident Griffith will win the 8/9 match in the championship bracket that I’m only going to discuss Weber here.

Weber, a senior wrestling in his first NCAA Championship, won the Big12 conference title. Among his wins was a Sudden Victory upset over #10 seed Wittlake at the B12 Championships. His losses were early in the season, and were against Peyton Mocco (MIZZ) and Pat Schoenfelder (UNI). Mocco would be wrestling in this tournament at 165, except for star recruit Keegan O’Toole taking over the starting spot, Mocco moving up to 174 where he is the #10 seed. Neither of Weber’s losses were bad losses, and he’s been on a roll, so this will be a challenge for Lee. As said above, he can hang with anyone on a given day, so I’m hoping this is the given day.

3rd Round of Wrestlebacks: (17) Thomas Bullard (NCST) 5-5 / (16) William Formato (APP) 17-2 Winner
The winner of Bullard/Formato in the first round faces #1 seed Alex Marinelli in the second round and will surely drop to wrestlebacks. Bullard finished 3rd in the ACC, and is a senior that has qualified for the NCAA tournament every year of his eligibility. Most of the wrestler’s records this year that look out-standing, really are not due to weak competition. Bullard’s is quite the opposite, as his is an average record (5-5) that is not too shabby. He’s beaten #3 seed Jake Wentzel and #22 seed Kennedy Monday, and none of his losses are bad losses. Re. a match-up with Lee, they met at last year’s Southern Scuffle, a bout won by Bullard 9-4. For Lee, it’s win here and then twice more to become an All-American.

 

[kingslayer_85]

165 looks to be a minefield, surprised to see Whittlake down at 10 and Griffith at 8. Thought Griffith was top 3 or 4 last year.

 

[Random4598375]

That looks pretty tough for Lee. Whittlake looked really good the couple times I saw him.

 

[RoarLions1]

That looks pretty tough for Lee. Whittlake looked really good the couple times I saw him.

Agree. I feel the #23 seed is a tough spot for both Howard and Lee. Winning a first bout switches places with the 10 seed, but both are tall orders.

 

[dsites52]

4th Round: (3) Korbin Myers (VT) 8-0/(6) Matt Schmitt (MIZZ) 10-1 Winner
Myers is the real deal, winning the ACC Tournament, beating Micky Phillippi in the process. The 6th year senior is wrestling in his 4th NCAA Championship, though Round of 16 is his best result. He’s upped his game this season, so expect a close bout with RBY if he gets to round 4. RBY will be favored, and should move on.

.

As a kid outta D3 myself, I would be very excited for Myers to get beat by RBY in this bracket.

 

[McScoreley]

Unless Joe can bring back who he was last November (a massive change from whatever he was last weekend), I don't think he's winning a match this year. Not throwing in the towel on him long term but it ain't happening this year. Hope I am wrong.

 

[RoarLions1]

I really like Starocci's path. To me, the greatest challenge on the road to the finals is a possible 3rd round bout vs McNally of Kent State. Wrestle like he has since the first bout of the season, and all will be fine. Losing along the way, and the path to 3rd is a tough one.

174 (3) Carter Starocci (PSU) 8-2

1st Round: (30) Victor Marcelli (UVA) 8-5
Starocci is the only 3 seed at the NCAA Championship with 2 losses. Most (7) are undefeated, while two have one loss. But make no mistake; Starroci has earned this lofty seed by beating three #2 ranked wrestlers during the season (current NCAA seeds; #5 Massa, #7 Romero, and #4 Labriola). Few wrestlers have faced the level of competition this year that Starocci has faced, even without adding in #1 seed Michael Kemerer to make it four of the top seven seeds.

Marcelli is the 4th place ACC finisher, and the sophomore is wrestling at his first NCAA Championship. While wrestling a weak schedule, his best win is against #27 seed Cody Howard. Starocci should win this bout handily, and it could be a bonus-point win. Marcelli has not given up bonus in any match this season, but hasn’t faced top guys.

2nd Round: (19) Michael O`Malley (DREX) 7-1 / (14) Hayden Hastings (WYO) 15-2 Winner
O’Malley finished second at EIWA’s, losing in the finals 2-1 to #17 seed Benjamin Pasiuk (ARMY) for his only loss of the season. The sophomore qualified for NCAA’s last year too. His schedule was not strong, and other than Pasuik, he faced no other qualifiers. On paper this is an easy win for Starocci, but I’ve always professed that matches are wrestled for a reason. Starocci no doubt will be focused, which he’ll need for his first time under the bright lights of the NCAA Championship.

Hastings finished third at B12’s, and the junior has qualified for the last three NCAA Championships. I look for Hastings to beat O’Malley, so Hastings is the more likely opponent here. For the season his two losses were to #2 seed Demetrius Romero (UVU) and #13 seed Jackson Hemauer (UNCO), while wrestling an above average schedule. Look for this bout with Starocci to be very close and low scoring. Starocci has proven to have terrific defense, so expect that to be the difference. I’ll call a win here for Starocci.

3rd Round: (11) Austin Murphy (CAMP) 12-0 / (6) Andrew McNally (KENT) 10-1 Winner
Winning this bout means All-American honors for the Penn State freshman, and I look at the competition level, if McNally is the opponent, to increase significantly compared to the last round. Murphy won the Southern Conference title, and the junior is much-improved compared to his 9-10 record last season. He’s a first-time NCAA qualifier, with best wins this season against #15 seed Thomas Flitz (APP). His undefeated season has surely affected his seed; I actually think if it goes this route, he’s a bit below both possible opponents in round 2.

McNally is the more likely opponent here. He won the MAC title, beating #10 seed Mocco (MIZZ). I’ll call him undefeated for the season, as his only loss is to a WrestleStat #124 guy by injury default early in the season. THIS IS A TOUGH MATCH-UP. McNally is a 3-time qualifier to NCAA’s with 30+ wins in both 2019 and 2020, though he’s looking for his first NCAA All-American finish. Again, I feel Starocci’s defense is among the best at this weight class so look for a low-scoring bout, and defense winning out.

4th Round: (2) Demetrius Romero (UVU) 16-0
Romero snuck into the #2 seed by winning the B12 and being undefeated. He did what he had to do, meaning beat everyone in front of him, though imo he is not the second best 174 in the country. His solid resume contains wins over the #12, #13, and #23 seeds at the NCAA Championships, evidence that he did not wrestle any of the top-10. This is the senior’s third NCAA Championship, with round of 12 (2019) his best finish. I’ll call another close bout. I believe that Starocci is a slight favorite in this bout, but I’ll take it both routes only because Romero is the higher seed … win and it’s a trip to the finals, lose and it’s a drop to wrestleback semis.

Finals: (1) Michael Kemerer (IOWA) 7-0 OR Wrestleback semifinals: A number of guys
Hoping for a finals rematch of the Big Ten final, which would be a terrific result for Starocci, though Kemerer would be my third pick if I were to select “most likely to win a championship”, behind Spencer Lee and Steveson.

If there’s a drop to wrestlebacks due to a 4th round loss, any numbers of guys are possible opponents. Possible and most likely is one of #8 seed Daniel Bullard (NCST), #5 seed Logan Massa (MICH), or #4 seed Mikey Labriola (NEB). If it goes this route, win here and it’s on to the 3/4 place bout, lose and it’s the 5/6 bout.

 

[El-Jefe]

I really like Starocci's path. To me, the greatest challenge on the road to the finals is a possible 3rd round bout vs McNally of Kent State.

I'm completely on board with the 1st sentence but not the 2nd.

Romero lost 2020 due to injury, but in 2019 he beat Joe Smith 2x and beat Massa and Steiert.

McNally's best win (Mocco) wrestled 165 for Missouri thru 1/3.

That said, they're both very good, and worthy opponents in the quarters and semis.

And Starocci beats both.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Anyone else impressed how some guys here can just rattle off past records, results, and years it all happened? Hell, they could probably name the gym things took place if they felt compelled to do so. Reminds me of people that effortlessly quote scripture...chapter and verse. Lol. I never looked but If I were, I'll bet those I'm thinking of do better than average on the contests here like KYPSW and last man standing.

 

[RoarLions1]

Anyone else impressed how some guys here can just rattle off past records, results, and years it all happened? Hell, they could probably name the gym things took place if they felt compelled to do so. Reminds me of people that effortlessly quote scripture...chapter and verse. Lol. I never looked but If I were, I'll bet those I'm thinking of do better than average on the contests here like KYPSW and last man standing.

There's one among us that has solid memories dating to the 1960's, another with memories to the 1950's (actually 2, but I haven't seen the one guy here in awhile. Know he's lurking though, as we recently talked by phone). My wrestling memories start in the 1970's.

 

[RoarLions1]

I'm completely on board with the 1st sentence but not the 2nd.

Romero lost 2020 due to injury, but in 2019 he beat Joe Smith 2x and beat Massa and Steiert.

McNally's best win (Mocco) wrestled 165 for Missouri thru 1/3.

That said, they're both very good, and worthy opponents in the quarters and semis.

And Starocci beats both.

In 2019, Romero also lost to Massa by tech fall, and Wick by major decision, McCormick by fall, and Marsteller by major decision. At 21-8, Joe Smith had an off year in 2019, losing to all the decent wrestlers he battled, so those aren't tremendous wins for Romero. Romero is up a weight class too, though that could be a benefit.

We agree that Starocci beats both.

 

[Still in State College]

The legend of Joe Smith is really strong. I wonder if it will ever be accepted that other than a really good Freshman year everything else was kind of meh. Yes I know he finished fourth in his Sophomore year but he really only had one quality win. Things broke right for him that year. Didn't see a seeded guy until the third round which he lost.

 

[RoarLions1]

184 (1) Aaron Brooks (PSU) 9-0

1st Round: (33) Joe Accousti (SH) 4-4 vs (32) Jha’quan Anderson (GW) 9-2 Winner
The wrestle-in winner is Brooks’ first opponent. Accousti finished in 6th place at EIWA’s, earning their final allocated spot. This is the Sacred Heart senior’s first trip to the NCAA Championships. Anderson is a freshman from Gardner-Webb and finished 3rd in the Southern Conference. Whoever Brooks faces, this should be an easy bonus point win.

2nd Round: (17) Owen Webster (MINN) 7-5 / (16) Max Lyon (PUR) 7-6 Winner
Next up will be an opponent from the Big Ten. Webster and Lyon wrestled in the 7/8 match at B1G’s, Lyon winning 3-1. Both are seniors with similar resumes, 60% win percentages, with an occasional upset win. These upset wins have never come against the very top guy in a weight class, so look for an easy Brooks win, likely by bonus. Last season, Brooks won two matches against Webster, both by major decision, and did not wrestle Lyon.

3rd Round: (8) Taylor Venz (NEB) 7-3 / (9) Jeremiah Kent (MIZZ) 9-1 Winner
We all know Venz as the only wrestler to hand Brooks an official collegiate loss so far (2020 at the dual). We also know that Brooks pinned Venz at last year’s Big Ten Championships, and handled Venz again, 10-5 at this year’s Championship. Venz, a senior, is a 4-time NCAA qualifier, and a 4th place finisher and All-American in 2018. He’s a dangerous wrestler, always looking for the big move. Brooks simply has to wrestle his bout, not Venz’s, and this should be a win similar to Big Ten's for the Penn State sophomore.

Kent was the 2nd place finisher at the MAC. The Missouri sophomore’s loss in the final, a pin by #7 seed Brit Wilson, was his only of the season, but his 9-1 record is deceiving. A solid win against #10 seed Samuelson is certainly a great win, but the rest of his competition was average at best. Facing Brooks for the first time is not likely to end well, and could be a bonus point win if it goes this route.

4th Round: (4) Parker Keckeisen (UNI) 15-0 / (5) Hunter Bolen (VT) 9-1 Winner
Unless an upset happens, the winner is Brooks’ 4th round opponent. Keckeisen is a freshman with no official losses on his collegiate record. He won the B12 Championship with solid wins over #10 seed Tate Samuelson and #18 seed Alan Clothier. He also beat #11 seed Dakota Geer at the dual. On paper, this is a Brooks win, but close.

Bolen is the more-likely opponent, by an eyelash imo, even though he’s the lower seed here (#5 to Keckesian’s #4). Bolen spent time at #1, and only a loss in the ACC Championships to #2 seed Trent Hidlay prevented him from being #1 or #2 in these championships. Bolen, a junior, is a 3-time NCAA qualifier but was never an All-American. That should change this year. He has only 4 total losses in the last three years, one of which was a redshirt season, so this young man is solid. I noticed the scores against the very top guys he’s wrestled have been low scoring, one-to-two point victories or losses. Brooks’ offense should win out as he’s the more dynamic scorer of the two.

FINALS: (2) Trent Hidlay (NCST) 6-1 / (3) Lou Deprez (BING) 7-0 Winner
Hidlay vs Deprez should be a barnburner. Hidlay is solid in all positions, and Deprez’s style is super-physical. It’s a toss-up. Sophomore Hidlay won ACC’s with the win over Bolen in SV, losing to him earlier in the season for his only loss. I did notice that Hidlay tends to win a lot of decisions, and not bonus point wins, even against wrestlers that are only slightly better than average. I think Brooks vs Hidlay is a great match-up, and on paper a close low-scoring Brooks win.

Deprez is an equally gifted wrestler, but to be honest his competition this season was lacking, despite winning an EIWA Championship. Looking at years prior, it’s easy to see the caliber of wrestler, but I believe weak competition this year hurts his chances at NCAA’s. Maybe the opposite is true, and he’s “fresher” than anyone else. Regardless, he has not faced anyone as talented as Brooks.

 

[RoarLions1]

197: (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 6-4

1st Round: (18) Jacob Koser (NAVY) 7-3
Koser finished 3rd at EIWA’s, where he only lost once, to #17 seed Jack Brown (ARMY). He also lost during the regular season to Brown, as well as to #14 seed Greg Bulsak (CLAR). He’s a sophomore and this is his first NCAA appearance. I would call his limited record better than average, losing to guys he should, by ranking, and beating those he should. Beard is favored, and is more battle-tested against tougher competition, so I would expect a win here, though not an easy one.

2nd Round: (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1
Beard can hang with anyone. As evidence we have his two bouts with Myles Amine. We also have the Beard losses to #10 seed Cameron Caffey (MSU) and #12 seed Lucas Davison (NU) where his effort and energy seemed a notch lower. Schultz finished second to Amine at the Big Ten Championships, also wrestling close 2-1 and 2-0 wins against Caffey and Ohio State’s Hoffman, respectively. In fact, a lot of Schultz’s wins this year were by 1 to 2 points against the better wrestlers he’s faced. Schultz is hard to score on, and with his low-scoring offense and good defense, this bout should be low scoring. I’ll take Beard’s travels through one more championship bracket bout (below), and possible opponents in wrestlebacks.

3rd Round: (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 / (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 Winner OR 2nd Round Wrestlebacks: (17) JT Brown (ARMY) 7-2 / (16) Jake Jakobsen (LEH) 7-3
In the championship bracket, Elam or Caffey are likely to be opponents, with the winner advancing to Round 3. This would be Beard’s opponent if he gets by Schultz. Elam was the MAC champ, and the freshman is undefeated on the season. His best opponent on the season was #24 seed Benjamin Smith (CSU), so the record is a bit misleading. I like Beard in this bout if it happens.

Caffey finished 4th at Big Ten’s and had a 12-6 victory vs Beard during the tournament. I believe Beard is better than he showed in that bout, and the next battle should be closer.

If Beard goes to wrestlebacks after the bout with Schultz, he will likely face either Brown or Jakobsen. Brown finished second at EIWA’s, while Jakobsen finished 1st, beating Brown 3-0 in the finals. Both resumes are similar, beating and losing to guys in the EIWA conference that are at their level. There are no wrestlers at a much higher level in the EIWA. While it will be close, a focused Beard should beat either.

3rd or 4th Round Wrestlebacks: Many possibilities
While I hope Beard can get to the 4th Round in the championship bracket (and it IS possible, given his talent level), I’ll play the odds and say he gets picked off in either the second or third round. Both drops him to wrestlebacks, but at different places, one mentioned above (vs Brown or Jakobsen). As noted, losing in round 2 drops a wrestler to the 2nd round of wrestlebacks, while losing in the 3rd round drops a wrestler to the 4th round of wrestlebacks. Could be the loser of the same Elam vs Caffey bout mentioned 3 paragraphs above. Or it could be (12) Lucas Davison (NW) 7-3 or (13) Tanner Sloan (SDSU), again depending on where he lands. A winner in the 4th round of wrestlebacks earns All-American status.

 

[RoarLions1]

285: (9) Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) 6-2

1st Round: (24) Michael McAleavey (CIT) 15-1
McAleavey is a 5th year senior wrestling in his first NCAA Championship. He won the SoCon Championship, and his only loss this season is to #20 seed Quinn Miller from Virginia. McAleavey’s record is deceiving, with 11 wins over guys ranked outside the top 100 in WrestleStat, 2 wins against the #75 wrestler, and 2 wins against non-D1 wrestlers. This bout shouldn’t be close.

2nd Round: (8) Jordan Wood (LEH) 7-1
On paper, the 8/9 match-up is generally pretty close, and I’ll call this one no different. Wood is a 4-time qualifier, with an All-American finish (4th) in 2019. He won the EIWA crown this season, though the competition was mediocre. His one loss this season is to #7 seed Ethan Laird in the last dual of the season. Wood will be a good challenge for Kerkvliet. He’s a big, strong heavy that Kerkvliet must beat with athleticism. I think he will.

3rd Round: (1) Gable Steveson (MINN) 12-0
Steveson has wrestled lights out this season.

4th Round of Wrestlebacks: Likely are (14) Trent Hillger (WIS) 6-4 or (11) Zach Elam (MIZZ) 10-4
We know more about Hillger, the 7th place finisher at Big Ten’s. The 3-time NCAA qualifier and All-American (8th in 2019) is a junior eligibility-wise. The best data-point I have is Kerkvliet’s 7-3 victory over the Wisconsin big man at Big Ten’s. More of the same is likely here.

Elam was 3rd in the MAC, behind #3 seed Matt Stencil and #7 seed Ethan Laird. His best win of the season came against #13 seed Brian Andrews. His losses, in addition to Stencil and Laird, were to #6 seed Gannon Gremmel and #15 seed Carter Isley. On paper, this is a Kerkvliet victory. Win here, and Kerkvliet is an All-American, finishing no worse than 8th – but there is more work to be done…

5th Round of Wrestlebacks: (4) Cohlton Schultz (ASU) 12-0 / (5) Tony Cassioppi (IOWA) 8-2 Loser
Freshman Schultz had a great season, going undefeated, winning the PAC-12, and beating some solid wrestlers along the way (#13 Andrews, #6 Gremmel, #15 Isley, #26 Traxler). The PAC-12 is not the B1G though, and I’m giving Kerkvliet at least even odds of winning here if it happens.

We know Cassioppi, the 3rd place Big Ten finisher after a 9-0 win vs Kerkvliet. He’s solid, and will be tough to beat. I’m picking Cassioppi in the quarters of the championship bracket, meaning this match-up may not happen here (i.e. the likely opponent is Schultz).

Bottom line here is win and keep the dream alive for 3rd place, or drop to the 7/8 bout.

6th Round of Wrestlebacks: (3) Matt Stencel (CMU) 10-0 OR 7/8 Bout: A (6) Gannon Gremmel (ISU) 15-1 or (7) Ethan Laird (RID) 8-1 type wrestler
Getting this far, and my hat’s off to young Kerkvliet. I have nothing more to add, as the possibility of 5, 6, or 7 matches at NCAA’s, with less than a month to prepare is asking a lot. I wish him all the best.

 

[El-Jefe]

Slight change to Kerk's opening match -- now vs. Navy's Birchmeier. IMO a better opponent (and he beat McAleavey last year), but Kerk should still win.

Bigger impact to Kerk in 2nd round -- Jordan Wood now opens against Stanford's Traxler, who finished R12 in 2019.

 

[RoarLions1]

Slight change to Kerk's opening match -- now vs. Navy's Birchmeier. IMO a better opponent (and he beat McAleavey last year), but Kerk should still win.

Bigger impact to Kerk in 2nd round -- Jordan Wood now opens against Stanford's Traxler, who finished R12 in 2019.

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Thanks E-J. But c'mon NCAA!! Geez, the brackets on the NCAA site are the old ones.

 

[El-Jefe]

Thanks E-J. But c'mon NCAA!! Geez, the brackets on the NCAA site are the old ones.

Tocci did say in a reply that the brackets aren't locked until weigh-ins.

Still, it's not that hard to update what are unofficial brackets anyway.

 

[RoarLions1]

Tocci did say in a reply that the brackets aren't locked until weigh-ins.

Still, it's not that hard to update what are unofficial brackets anyway.

I saw that. It pertains to all brackets, and keeping theirs "current" as you say wouldn't be hard. Trackwrestling's are not as print-friendly.