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Roar's Big Ten Seeding Review

Rogotzke lost to Purdue’s James Rowley at the Clarion Open in December. Curious if they count that since he is a big ten opponent and a starter.
Tbh, that little nugget is in my data, but I read right over it. I'll leave my write-up above alone, but the Rowley win (he's 2-6 in conference) is a bad loss for Rogotzke, and would move him down the pecking order, moving Truax to #3. Truax/Rogotzke was close enough that this would be the type of "tiebreaker" normally used.
Thanks.
 
Tbh, that little nugget is in my data, but I read right over it. I'll leave my write-up above alone, but the Rowley win (he's 2-6 in conference) is a bad loss for Rogotzke, and would move him down the pecking order, moving Truax to #3. Truax/Rogotzke was close enough that this would be the type of "tiebreaker" normally used.
Thanks.
That would put Truax in Pinto's semi instead of Salazar. I don't think that makes much difference, although it creates a new landmine for Salazar because Rogotzke has shown the ability to stick anyone at any time, even (or possibly especially) when way behind.
 
That would put Truax in Pinto's semi instead of Salazar. I don't think that makes much difference, although it creates a new landmine for Salazar because Rogotzke has shown the ability to stick anyone at any time, even (or possibly especially) when way behind.
I’d much rather Salazar have a semifinal against Rogotzke than Truax, from what I’ve seen of both over this season and previous seasons.
 
285

#1: Greg Kerkvliet (PSU, 6-0)
#2: Nick Feldman (tOSU, 7-1)
#3: Lucas Davison (MICH, 6-2)
#4: Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT, 4-4)
#5: Nick Willham (IND, 4-4)
#6: Seth Nevills (MD, 2-1)
#7: Harley Andrews (NEB, 2-0)
#8: Bennett Tabor (MINN, 5-3)
#9: Bradley Hill (IA, 4-1)
#10: Jack Jessen (NU, 3-5)
#11: Josh Terrill (MSU, 2-6)
#12: Gannon Rosenfield (WIS, 2-6)
#13: Tristan Ruhlman (PUR, 0-6)
#14: Luke Luffman (ILL, 0-0)

One mountain of a man is left undefeated in conference action, #1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU). Dominant wins over #2 Nick Feldman (tOSU) and #3 Lucas Davison (MICH) seal this obvious choice. #2 & #3 are just as easy, as #2 Feldman owns a HTH win over #3 Davison, and Davison has no other losses than to the top two seeds along with good wins over Bradley Hill (IA) and Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT). I took a peak at Hill here, but was left unimpressed. At 4-1, his lone loss is to Davison, but his four wins are to guys ranked over 100 in Wrestlestat. Regardless how you feel about this internet tool (frankly I love it), those wins are not impressive. Ben Kueter (IA), the Hawkeyes current back-up is redshirting, but has slightly more impressive results, going 2-1 in conference action, beating Jack Jessen (NU) and Bennett Tabor (MINN) in duals. He wrestled the three bouts after starting his wrestling season only after his Iowa football season was over. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Brands’ brothers decide to make Kueter their starter, though without looking into it, Hill may earn the Big Ten an allocation spot while Kueter would not.

The next three or so are tough. We have another round-in-circles result as Seth Nevills (MD) beat Slavikouski HTH, Slavikouski beat Nick Willham (IND) HTH and Willham beat Nevills HTH. Add in 4-1 Hill and 5-3 Tabor and we have a bit of a mess. I am setting aside Hill and Tabor, as their wins simply don’t get them consideration. Above I already mentioned Hill’s wins. Tabor’s are similar, beating four subs (all ranked at 100+ on Wrestlestat), with a lone reasonable win HTH vs Jack Jessen (NU) that will earn seed consideration after Nevills, Slavikouski and Willham’s seeds are set. Nevills has only three total conference bouts, so I’m moving him to #6. The #4/#5 decision isn’t a huge deal as they’ll meet in the quarters if all goes chalk. Slavikouski does have the HTH win over Willham, but he also has a loss to Lucas Cochran (PSU). Cochran is a talented 197 pounder, but beating a top heavy moving up a weight isn’t a good look for the heavyweight Slavikouski. Maybe the BJC crowd got to Slavikouski? Regardless, I’m placing more weight on the HTH result, so it is #4 Slavikouski and #5 Willham.

Out of the blue I’m going #7 Harley Andrews (NEB). While only wrestling two conference duals, they were wins over Jessen and Tabor. #8 belongs to Tabor after the HTH win over Jessen. Here I’ll insert #9 Hill followed by #10 Jessen, as Jessen has no decent wins either. #11 Josh Terrill owns a HTH victory over #12 Gannon Rosenfield in a battle of 2-6 (in conference action) wrestlers. #13 and 0-6 Tristan Ruhlman (PUR) is seeded before #14 Luke Luffman (ILL) as the Illini wrestler is 0-0 in Big Ten Action. As the Big Ten will get in the neighborhood of 7 auto-qualifiers, the question is "can he steal a spot”. Luffman is a two-time national qualifier, but his last bout was 12/29/23 at Midland’s.

There you have it, ten weight classes done! One aspect of the reviews that I haven’t mentioned much is “starting line-ups”. It did come up with the Iowa heavyweight, and while I didn’t mention it, same could be said at 184 for the Hawkeyes with Gabe Arnold in the wings. Luke Luffman hasn’t wrestled since December 29. Joel Vandervere hasn’t wrestled a conference dual either, and on and on. Conference coaches can change line-ups last minute, we’ll just have to wait and see.
 
184

#1: Isaiah Salazar (MINN, 7-0)
#2: Lenny Pinto (NEB, 7-1)
#3: Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU, 3-1)
#4: Bernie Truax (PSU, 5-2)
#5: Jaden Bullock (MICH, 4-3)
#6: Layne Malczewski (MSU, 5-3)
#7: Brian Soldano (RUT, 4-3)
#8: Shane Liegel (WIS, 4-4)
#9: Troy Fisher (NU, 4-4)
#10: Dylan Connell (ILL, 2-5)
#11: Aiden Riggins (IA, 2-5)
#12: Roman Rogotzke (IND, 3-5)
#13: James Rowley (PUR, 2-6)
#14: Chase Mielnik (MD, 0-8)

#1 Isaiah Salazar (MINN) stands alone as the only undefeated wrestler in conference duals. At 7-0 he has a HTH win over #2 Lenny Pinto (NEB), the Cornhusker’s only defeat of the season. Pinto has a solid win against Bernie Truax (PSU); a result hometown fans believe can be turned around in the post-season.

Here I stalled for a while. Truax, at 5-2, has good wins against 5-3 Layne Malczewski (MSU) and 4-3 Jaden Bullock (MICH), but lost to Ryder Rogatzke (tOSU). 3-1 Ryder Rogotzke beat Truax (as mentioned) but has a loss to 4-3 Brian Soldano (RUT). Soldano beat Ryder Rogotzke, but has losses to Malczewski and Bullock. 4-3 Bullock has wins against Malczewski and Soldano, with losses to Truax and Ryder Rogotzke. It’s what is called a cluster. While it is not the A>B, B>C, C<A variety of disproving the transitive property, these results still fly in the face of anything resembling that ancient theorem. This seeding at 184 is important, as the #4 seed gets the #1 seed in the semifinals if the bracket goes chalk. #3 gets #2. I’m a firm believer that all a wrestler can do is wrestle the guy in front of them, but a level of fairness should be applied so the match-ups agree with the season’s results.

After staring at this, my conclusion is that this boils down to Truax and Ryder Rogotzke for the #3 seed. There’s a case for both. Despite only wrestling in four duals, I’ll go with the HTH winner, so it’s #3 Ryder Rogotzke and #4 Truax. I do think the Big Ten flips them, we’ll see.

#5 Bullock stands out next, as all of his losses are to guys seeded higher and he has a HTH win over wins vs #6 Malczewski and #7 Soldano. Malczewski is seeded higher than Soldano as he owns a HTH win against the Scarlet Knight. #8 Shane Liegel (WIS) beat #9 Troy Fisher (NU) HTH so gets the nod between 4-4 wrestlers. That is followed by a gaggle of wrestlers with two or three wins. Aiden Riggins (IA) has the best win from the group of four [Riggins, Roman Rogotzke (IND), Dylan Connell (ILL) & James Rowley (PUR)], while Connell is the only wrestler to beat two wrestlers in this group. I’m going #10 Connell as he has a HTH win over Riggins AND all of his losses are to guys in front of him. The Fisher win gets Riggins the #11 seed even though the Hawkeye has HTH loss to James Rowley. #12 Roman Rogotzky owns a HTH win over #13 Rowley, and the weight class is wrapped up with #14 Chase Mielnik (MD).
No one but Pinto would beat Bernie and big’s so I love those seeds.
 
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I believe Gabe will go 184 and Ben goes 285.

TNT doesn’t want to miss top 5.
Kueter for sure. If he sticks with football, he's not going to use all of his wrestling eligibility anyway because during wrestling season of his senior year, he will have to train and prepare for the NFL combine, and with millions of dollars and a shot at the NFL on the line, he won't risk either injury during wrestling or not training properly for the specific combine activities. The combine is typically a week or so before the B1Gs, so there is no time for him to complete the combine then jump into wrestling (and he won't want to risk injury ahead of the draft, either). There is no reason at all for him to redshirt in wrestling, so if he doesn't go this postseason, it's a sign he's not actually beating Hill for the spot (Hill has acquitted himself decently this year, too).

It's not as clear with Gabe. He is a potential multiple time champ, but he himself has reservations about 184, so it's more likely he will want to save his eligibility for when he can be the full time 174 (they are committed to PK at the weight this year), and I can't see TnT disagreeing with that. If it were the difference between winning nationals or not, maybe, but it's not, so I think he will end up redshirting and coming back next year at 174.
 
I’d much rather Salazar have a semifinal against Rogotzke than Truax, from what I’ve seen of both over this season and previous seasons.
I would have agreed with you (from a Minny perspective) until I saw Rogotzke do the same thing to Malczewski that he did to Truax. He can pin anyone at any time regardless of the score or the position he's in. That's a big issue. Getting way behind then looking for a pin is not an optimal strategy to win a tournament where you can't lose even once, so I don't think he's a threat to win nationals, but in any given match, you don't want to see him across from you, especially if you are the one expected to win.
 
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Kueter for sure. If he sticks with football, he's not going to use all of his wrestling eligibility anyway because during wrestling season of his senior year, he will have to train and prepare for the NFL combine, and with millions of dollars and a shot at the NFL on the line, he won't risk either injury during wrestling or not training properly for the specific combine activities. The combine is typically a week or so before the B1Gs, so there is no time for him to complete the combine then jump into wrestling (and he won't want to risk injury ahead of the draft, either). There is no reason at all for him to redshirt in wrestling, so if he doesn't go this postseason, it's a sign he's not actually beating Hill for the spot (Hill has acquitted himself decently this year, too).

It's not as clear with Gabe. He is a potential multiple time champ, but he himself has reservations about 184, so it's more likely he will want to save his eligibility for when he can be the full time 174 (they are committed to PK at the weight this year), and I can't see TnT disagreeing with that. If it were the difference between winning nationals or not, maybe, but it's not, so I think he will end up redshirting and coming back next year at 174.
Agreed on Kueter and to augment your point: NFL Draft candidates start training for the draft immediately after the bowls. Many move to specialty training centers geared toward the draft, such as the one in Phoenix. When he's up for the draft, whichever year that is, he's not wrestling at all.

Arnold's shirting. If he were going to wrestle in the postseason, Brands would've burned his shirt by now.
 
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Agreed on Kueter and to augment your point: NFL Draft candidates start training for the draft immediately after the bowls. Many move to specialty training centers geared toward the draft, such as the one in Phoenix. When he's up for the draft, whichever year that is, he's not wrestling at all.

Arnold's shirting. If he were going to wrestle in the postseason, Brands would've burned his shirt by now.
I agree on Arnold shirting but if he goes against Plott on sunday and wins I think they almost have to pull it at that point and send him to b10s at 184
 
I agree on Arnold shirting but if he goes against Plott on sunday and wins I think they almost have to pull it at that point and send him to b10s at 184
If he beats Plott, then that definitely gives them more to think about, but I still think he would stay in RS. 184 doesn't have a clear cut stud like Starocci or Brooks (Keckeisen is clearly the favorite but not a dominant or unbeatable one), but there is a good bit of depth to the class with Keck, Truax, Plott, Foca, Pinto, Munoz, Salazar, Fishback, and the wildcard Rogotzke who can pin anyone at any time. Even with a win vs Plott, I don't think he would consider himself a favorite and would probably stay in RS.
 
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I would have agreed with you (from a Minny perspective) until I saw Rogotzke do the same thing to Malczewski that he did to Truax. He can pin anyone at any time regardless of the score or the position he's in. That's a big issue. Getting way behind then looking for a pin is not an optimal strategy to win a tournament where you can't lose even once, so I don't think he's a threat to win nationals, but in any given match, you don't want to see him across from you, especially if you are the one expected to win.
Gopher coaches have been watch Rogotzke wrestle for years now, and McEnelly has beaten him using a strategy I would expect Salazar to employ should they meet up. I feel like he will be as prepared as anyone for this style.
 
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Hard to believe Nagao didn’t earn an AQ. Understood that’s the formula. But still. Does anyone anywhere think he’s not a top 33 guy at the weight?
 
Hard to believe Nagao didn’t earn an AQ. Understood that’s the formula. But still. Does anyone anywhere think he’s not a top 33 guy at the weight?
A win against Edinboro Sunday gets him to 71.43%, and he'll pass Madrigal and possibly Chlebove (who has Crookham and Van Dee left assuming all wrestle). Outside chance to pass Leiphart, thb I don't know much about the F&M Scramble. Quick look and I see; 1) above 70% and 2) 26th or so on the win% list.
 
Outside chance to pass Leiphart, thb I don't know much about the F&M Scramble.

It's on Track. Lehigh, Ohio State, Penn, Army, North Carolina sending wrestlers.

If the wrestler list on Track is so far correct, Crookham will be there at 133. Also the 133 list is not complete -- only 2 guys listed at 133 and neither is from F&M.
 
It's on Track. Lehigh, Ohio State, Penn, Army, North Carolina sending wrestlers.

If the wrestler list on Track is so far correct, Crookham will be there at 133. Also the 133 list is not complete -- only 2 guys listed at 133 and neither is from F&M.
Lehigh wrestles Arizona State the same day as the F&M Scramble. No inside info on who is going where, but I’d guess Crookham and gang will be wrestling at ASU.
 
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Agreed on Kueter and to augment your point: NFL Draft candidates start training for the draft immediately after the bowls. Many move to specialty training centers geared toward the draft, such as the one in Phoenix. When he's up for the draft, whichever year that is, he's not wrestling at all.

Arnold's shirting. If he were going to wrestle in the postseason, Brands would've burned his shirt by now.
Heck most skip the bowl
 
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Lehigh wrestles Arizona State the same day as the F&M Scramble. No inside info on who is going where, but I’d guess Crookham and gang will be wrestling at ASU.
Brackets are out and Crookham wrestles Peyton Fenton from Ohio St. Only 2 entries at 133. Since it’s only 1 match, Crookham could fly out to Tempe for the dual tonight.
 
Brackets are out and Crookham wrestles Peyton Fenton from Ohio St. Only 2 entries at 133. Since it’s only 1 match, Crookham could fly out to Tempe for the dual tonight.
For 133 criteria, it is good for PSU if Crookhan wrestles at ASU. Not happening though.
 
Kueter for sure. If he sticks with football, he's not going to use all of his wrestling eligibility anyway because during wrestling season of his senior year, he will have to train and prepare for the NFL combine, and with millions of dollars and a shot at the NFL on the line, he won't risk either injury during wrestling or not training properly for the specific combine activities. The combine is typically a week or so before the B1Gs, so there is no time for him to complete the combine then jump into wrestling (and he won't want to risk injury ahead of the draft, either). There is no reason at all for him to redshirt in wrestling, so if he doesn't go this postseason, it's a sign he's not actually beating Hill for the spot (Hill has acquitted himself decently this year, too).

It's not as clear with Gabe. He is a potential multiple time champ, but he himself has reservations about 184, so it's more likely he will want to save his eligibility for when he can be the full time 174 (they are committed to PK at the weight this year), and I can't see TnT disagreeing with that. If it were the difference between winning nationals or not, maybe, but it's not, so I think he will end up redshirting and coming back next year at 174.
If Nelson Brands is coming back next year, it would make most sense this year for Gabe and PK to wrestle off for 174, and the loser goes 184…
 
285

#1: Greg Kerkvliet (PSU, 6-0)
#2: Nick Feldman (tOSU, 7-1)
#3: Lucas Davison (MICH, 6-2)
#4: Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT, 4-4)
#5: Nick Willham (IND, 4-4)
#6: Seth Nevills (MD, 2-1)
#7: Harley Andrews (NEB, 2-0)
#8: Bennett Tabor (MINN, 5-3)
#9: Bradley Hill (IA, 4-1)
#10: Jack Jessen (NU, 3-5)
#11: Josh Terrill (MSU, 2-6)
#12: Gannon Rosenfield (WIS, 2-6)
#13: Tristan Ruhlman (PUR, 0-6)
#14: Luke Luffman (ILL, 0-0)

One mountain of a man is left undefeated in conference action, #1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU). Dominant wins over #2 Nick Feldman (tOSU) and #3 Lucas Davison (MICH) seal this obvious choice. #2 & #3 are just as easy, as #2 Feldman owns a HTH win over #3 Davison, and Davison has no other losses than to the top two seeds along with good wins over Bradley Hill (IA) and Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT). I took a peak at Hill here, but was left unimpressed. At 4-1, his lone loss is to Davison, but his four wins are to guys ranked over 100 in Wrestlestat. Regardless how you feel about this internet tool (frankly I love it), those wins are not impressive. Ben Kueter (IA), the Hawkeyes current back-up is redshirting, but has slightly more impressive results, going 2-1 in conference action, beating Jack Jessen (NU) and Bennett Tabor (MINN) in duals. He wrestled the three bouts after starting his wrestling season only after his Iowa football season was over. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Brands’ brothers decide to make Kueter their starter, though without looking into it, Hill may earn the Big Ten an allocation spot while Kueter would not.

The next three or so are tough. We have another round-in-circles result as Seth Nevills (MD) beat Slavikouski HTH, Slavikouski beat Nick Willham (IND) HTH and Willham beat Nevills HTH. Add in 4-1 Hill and 5-3 Tabor and we have a bit of a mess. I am setting aside Hill and Tabor, as their wins simply don’t get them consideration. Above I already mentioned Hill’s wins. Tabor’s are similar, beating four subs (all ranked at 100+ on Wrestlestat), with a lone reasonable win HTH vs Jack Jessen (NU) that will earn seed consideration after Nevills, Slavikouski and Willham’s seeds are set. Nevills has only three total conference bouts, so I’m moving him to #6. The #4/#5 decision isn’t a huge deal as they’ll meet in the quarters if all goes chalk. Slavikouski does have the HTH win over Willham, but he also has a loss to Lucas Cochran (PSU). Cochran is a talented 197 pounder, but beating a top heavy moving up a weight isn’t a good look for the heavyweight Slavikouski. Maybe the BJC crowd got to Slavikouski? Regardless, I’m placing more weight on the HTH result, so it is #4 Slavikouski and #5 Willham.

Out of the blue I’m going #7 Harley Andrews (NEB). While only wrestling two conference duals, they were wins over Jessen and Tabor. #8 belongs to Tabor after the HTH win over Jessen. Here I’ll insert #9 Hill followed by #10 Jessen, as Jessen has no decent wins either. #11 Josh Terrill owns a HTH victory over #12 Gannon Rosenfield in a battle of 2-6 (in conference action) wrestlers. #13 and 0-6 Tristan Ruhlman (PUR) is seeded before #14 Luke Luffman (ILL) as the Illini wrestler is 0-0 in Big Ten Action. As the Big Ten will get in the neighborhood of 7 auto-qualifiers, the question is "can he steal a spot”. Luffman is a two-time national qualifier, but his last bout was 12/29/23 at Midland’s.

There you have it, ten weight classes done! One aspect of the reviews that I haven’t mentioned much is “starting line-ups”. It did come up with the Iowa heavyweight, and while I didn’t mention it, same could be said at 184 for the Hawkeyes with Gabe Arnold in the wings. Luke Luffman hasn’t wrestled since December 29. Joel Vandervere hasn’t wrestled a conference dual either, and on and on. Conference coaches can change line-ups last minute, we’ll just have to wait and see.
I personally take these for granted and am not grateful for the effort.
 
I would have agreed with you (from a Minny perspective) until I saw Rogotzke do the same thing to Malczewski that he did to Truax. He can pin anyone at any time regardless of the score or the position he's in. That's a big issue. Getting way behind then looking for a pin is not an optimal strategy to win a tournament where you can't lose even once, so I don't think he's a threat to win nationals, but in any given match, you don't want to see him across from you, especially if you are the one expected to win.
Rogotzke, is a complete wild card. He could easily beat anyone or he could get beat by anyone, he has had so many WTF matches both good and bad. I agree, the smaller the tourney the more dangerous he is. At nationals he could pull off a huge upset but also will likely lose to a kid he shouldn't.
 
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Tbh, I thought Roar’s rankings seemed more thoughtful and accurate.🤷🏼‍♂️
I think they might want to let Roar in the room.
Accuracy and thoughtfulness have no place in the NCAA. As far as being in the room, Roar has far too much dignity.
 
Tbh, I thought Roar’s rankings seemed more thoughtful and accurate.🤷🏼‍♂️
I think they might want to let Roar in the room.
Personally I appreciate how B1Gs does the seeds. There is some common sense involved. Roar was as thorough as can be (same with jmadden). That being said..no way Nagao going to get an 8 seed, Truax wasn’t going to fall behind Rogatske, Yara had some bad losses and ends at 4, etc). This common sense won’t come into play at NCAA seeding since they use a strict matrix.

Haven’t gone thru everything thoroughly, but so far seems like they got it right. Even Amine..he should be 8 or 9, they have him 6 because I guess they figure if we get best version of Amine, he’s not going to be 8 or 9.

I feel like at B1Gs the coaches actually want the wrestlers seeded right. I’m sure Bormet didn’t want to see Nagao in quarters, Bono didn’t want Amine in quarters, etc..yes Nagao probably deserved an 8 seed but he’s not the 8th best wrestler and the coaches take this into consideration
 
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I feel like at B1Gs the coaches actually want the wrestlers seeded right*. I’m sure Bormet didn’t want to see Nagao in quarters, Bono didn’t want Amine in quarters, etc..yes Nagao probably deserved an 8 seed but he’s not the 8th best wrestler and the coaches take this into consideration
*: except one. LOL.
 
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Haven’t gone thru everything thoroughly, but so far seems like they got it right. Even Amine..he should be 8 or 9, they have him 6 because I guess they figure if we get best version of Amine, he’s not going to be 8 or 9.
I'd hate to be one of the guys who gave their best version all season long, and earned that seed, but got bumped down and got a tougher opener that puts my NCAA qualification at risk, because some committee speculated that Amine saved his best for the postseason.
 
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