RANKINGS Musings

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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The info from Flo's 1/10/22 rankings were placed into a spreadsheet, and voilà, the following spit out. My team tournament numbers were off from Flo's by half a point for two schools, not worth verifying at this early stage.

ON PAPER (or in this case, "FROM FLO"), for the NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS
BONUS POINTS ARE NOT INCLUDED
-- Penn State is 25 theoretical points ahead of Iowa
-- Iowa is 10 theoretical points ahead of Michigan
-- Michigan is 9 theoretical points ahead of Oklahoma State
-- Oklahoma State is 6 theoretical points ahead of Arizona State
-- Arizona State is 17 theoretical points ahead of Cornell
-- Drops off from there

That's the top-6. What started in the pre-season as Iowa having less upside than Penn State, has flipped a bit. Even with the question marks for Iowa (Kemerer, a few more tighter matches early from the Iowa stars, etc.), they have imo right now, more upside. Part of the reason is PSU has four #1's, which presents no upside, only downside.

As far as bonus points, this variable appears to be bad news for the Hawkeyes. PSU has six guys in my top-30 in a Most Dominant Wrestler early calculation, including four in the top-10 while Iowa's top bonus point guy (DeSanto) alone for the Hawkeye's in the top-20, with Marinelli and Eierman dangerous too, albeit with lots of decisions early. For those that may not know, the Most Dominant Wrestler algorithm is used to calculate an average bout score based on bout scores. Falls (6) are worth more than tech falls (5) are worth more than majors (4) are worth more than decisions (3), and losses are subtracted the same amount.
 

RoarLions1

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For Big Ten's, It's tighter because of something I've been calling "compression" for years. A #9 ranked wrestler, expected to get 2 points (advancement only) at NCAA's, could finish 4th or 5th, as an example, and depending on the strength of the weight in the conference. This would garner 11.5 or 9 team points respectively (advancement PLUS placement) at the conference tourney.

BONUS POINTS ARE NOT INCLUDED
-- Penn State is 14 theoretical points ahead of Iowa
-- Iowa is 6.5 theoretical points ahead of Michigan
-- Drops off from there

Once again, bonus points will be a factor, but on paper, PSU has the edge here based on current wrestler results (Most Dominant Wrestler model that is maintained).
 

RoarLions1

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On the national scene, here's how the Big Ten weight classes fare;

-- 174, 184 and 197 are the strongest, based on quantity of ranked wrestlers only. 174 has 11, 184 has 10 and 197 has 10. 125, 141 and 285 follow with 9 each.

-- 165 is the weakest weight class (based on quantity) with only 5 ranked wrestlers. 149 and 157 follow with 7 each.

-- As far as a quality measure; Four weight classes have 5 top-10 Big Ten wrestlers; 125 (1, 3, 5, 8, 9), 133 (1, 3, 5, 8, 9), 174 (1, 2, 5, 6, 7) and 285 (1, 2, 4, 5, 7). It's too close to say which is the toughest right now. Maybe 174 and 285 have the edge with all five guys being top-7.

-- 165 is the weakest, with only the two wrestlers (#4 & 5) in the top-10. 149 (#'s 2, 4, 5) and 157 (#'s 2, 5, 7) are the next weakest for the conference.

As stated in the original post, this is all theoretical. Fun to analyze, review, look at, etc. but not worth a plug nickel when it comes right down to it.
 

SJP80

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Good stuff Roar. Am I right in saying our weakest weights (so far) are also the weights that the Big10 will get the least amount of auto qualifiers? If so, probably more critical than ever to make sure there is a nice resume in order to get an at large.
 

RoarLions1

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Good stuff Roar. Am I right in saying our weakest weights (so far) are also the weights that the Big10 will get the least amount of auto qualifiers? If so, probably more critical than ever to make sure there is a nice resume in order to get an at large.
Good question. The answer goes a bit beyond what I have done here. I will add to my model to answer your question. Stop back later!
 

RoarLions1

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Good stuff Roar. Am I right in saying our weakest weights (so far) are also the weights that the Big10 will get the least amount of auto qualifiers? If so, probably more critical than ever to make sure there is a nice resume in order to get an at large.
The easy answer is YES. But I only included the top-24 in my original posts above, so I added the next 9 guys to get to 33. This won't be accurate either, as this is the current statement in the manual for the 2022 NCAA's; "The maximum number of pre-allocations per weight class shall be 29". Also keep in mind we have 6 weeks to season's end, with lots of movement coming -- so this is a snapshot in time.

Going all the way to 33 ranked wrestlers, it appears that 174, 184 and 197 have the best shots at getting the Big Ten at least 10 auto-qualifiers. 184 and 197 have the best shot at more than 11, but that is a rare number and not likely by the season's end.

125, 141, and 285 could also get 10 each, but it is unlikely, so it'll probably be 8 or 9.

The other four weight classes (133, 149, 157, & 165) are in the same ballpark, with 7 or 8 likely.

So the hard (analysis-based) answer is YES too.

2022 appears to be in "rarefied air" territory. My numbers above add to 82 if you take the lowest guess at each weight. The Big Ten received 71, 77, 80, 78 and 66 at the last 5 contested championships. My response again is; "there's lots of wrestling yet to happen", so another review maybe end of January, first week of February would be more meaningful.
 
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SJP80

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Sep 22, 2013
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The easy answer is YES. But I only included the top-24 in my original posts above, so I added the next 9 guys to get to 33. This won't be accurate either, as this is the current statement in the manual for the 2022 NCAA's; "The maximum number of pre-allocations per weight class shall be 29". Also keep in mind we have 6 weeks to season's end, with lots of movement coming -- so this is a snapshot in time.

Going all the way to 33 ranked wrestlers, it appears that 174, 184 and 197 have the best shots at getting the Big Ten at least 10 auto-qualifiers. 184 and 197 have the best shot at more than 11, but that is a rare number and not likely by the season's end.

125, 141, and 285 could also get 10 each, but it is unlikely, so it'll probably be 8 or 9.

The other four weight classes (133, 149, 157, & 165) are in the same ballpark, with 7 or 8 likely.

So the hard (analysis-based) answer is YES too.

2022 appears to be in "rarefied air" territory. My numbers above add to 82 if you take the lowest guess at each weight. The Big Ten received 71, 77, 80, 78 and 66 at the last 5 contested championships. My response again is; "there's lots of wrestling yet to happen", so another review maybe end of January, first week of February would be more meaningful.
Thanks for the additional analysis Roar.
 
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Psalm 1 guy

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Thanks Roar! I found it endearing of this board when a poster made a recent snide remark at your expense and many here quickly came to your defense. And as always, you took the high road and didn't respond back to the poster. I have always appreciated what you bring to this board, and I am happy for you as you enjoy your retirement years.