Earlier today I proposed a method of determining the seeds at the Big Ten conference tournament by taking the total sum of dual team points earned by each wrestler during ONLY Big Ten conference duals. I realized this has many issues but I was too deep into my spreadsheet to throw all of this work away.
First, I'd like to that WrestleStat for having dual results in consistent formats which made splicing in Excel fairly painless.
Second, I'd like to discuss some of the issues I encountered and my "solutions"
1) Inconsistent number of matches wrestled.
Solution: Determine each team's "starter" by taking the wrestler with the most total matches for the team then add an estimator of future points by taking their average points so far multiplied by the number of conference duals remaining to arrive at their estimated final point total.
2) Ducking.
Solution: Remove the dual points from the 6's that weren't pins, so that's forfeits, DQ's and injuries. The wrestlers keep the prior points earned but don't get extra credit for the future.
3) Spreadsheet only shows wrestlers with conference wins.
Solution: Screw it, if you don't have a conference win, you don't get a seed from me.
4) Te'shan and other mixed-weight wrestlers.
Solution: I don't think my spreadsheet handled this perfectly because it's counting all matches wrestled by each wrestler but only their points in each specific weight class. So Te'Shan has 3 points at 165, 3 points at 174, and 3 matches wrestled on both. I don't think anyone else has wins at multiple weights but it's probably messing with the averages a bit.
Aaaaand my wife says it's time for bed so I'm just going to dump the list here and let you all tear it apart while I sleep. I'll be able to answer questions/comments when I get into work tomorrow (shh).
Weight Seed Wrestler School Projected Pts
125 1 #2 Sebastian Rivera Northwestern 38.8
125 2 #1 Spencer Lee Iowa 35.0
125 3 #7 Rayvon Foley Michigan State 30.9
125 4 #8 Sean Russell Minnesota 29.5
125 5 #40 Travis Piotrowski Illinois 22.0
125 6 #39 Devin Schroder Purdue 21.3
125 7 #17 Drew Mattin Michigan 21.0
125 8 #47 Zeke Moisey Nebraska 18.6
125 9 #16 Connor Brown Wisconsin 12.5
125 10 #56 Malik Heinselman Ohio State 9.0
125 11 #60 Liam Cronin Indiana 4.5
125 12 #54 Brandon Cray Maryland 4.0
125 13 #118 Shane Metzler Rutgers 4.0
125 14 #95 Devin Schnupp Penn State 3.9
133 1 #1 Stevan Micic Michigan 37.3
133 2 #2 Nick Suriano Rutgers 33.4
133 3 #6 Ethan Lizak Minnesota 29.7
133 4 #5 Austin DeSanto Iowa 25.2
133 5 #10 Roman Bravo-Young Penn State 19.6
133 6 #8 Luke Pletcher Ohio State 19.3
133 7 #18 Ben Thornton Purdue 14.1
133 8 #71 Jens Lantz Wisconsin 13.5
133 9 #52 Anthony Tutolo Michigan State 12.0
133 10 #64 Garrett Pepple Indiana 10.2
133 11 #60 Colin Valdiviez Northwestern 9.1
133 12 #47 Dylan Duncan Illinois 7.7
133 13 #171 Jevon Parrish Nebraska 3.6
141 1 #11 Mike Carr Illinois 29.6
141 2 #10 Mitch McKee Minnesota 28.1
141 3 #8 Tristan Moran Wisconsin 28.1
141 4 #2 Joseph McKenna Ohio State 28.0
141 5 #4 Nick Lee Penn State 27.0
141 6 #15 Max Murin Iowa 17.3
141 7 #31 Chad Red Nebraska 17.1
141 8 #26 Kanen Storr Michigan 16.7
141 9 #58 Peter Lipari Rutgers 12.9
141 10 #55 Nate Limmex Purdue 7.7
141 11 #69 Kyle Luigs Indiana 5.6
141 12 #78 Michael Doetsch Maryland 4.5
141 13 #51 Austin Eicher Michigan State 4.2
141 14 #106 Alec McKenna Northwestern 3.4
149 1 #1 Micah Jordan Ohio State 41.1
149 2 #2 Anthony Ashnault Rutgers 37.3
149 3 #11 Patricio Lugo Iowa 25.3
149 4 #40 Thomas Thorn Minnesota 21.4
149 5 #52 Malik Amine Michigan 15.4
149 6 #24 Cole Martin Wisconsin 14.6
149 7 #53 Alfred Bannister Maryland 14.0
149 8 #101 Fernie Silva Indiana 9.0
149 9 #31 Jarod Verkleeren Penn State 9.0
149 10 #55 Shayne Oster Northwestern 8.4
149 11 #65 Jordan Shearer Nebraska 8.0
149 12 #86 Jaden Enriquez Michigan State 7.7
149 13 #94 Christian Kanzler Illinois 4.0
157 1 #1 Jason Nolf Penn State 41.1
157 2 #4 Tyler Berger Nebraska 31.5
157 3 #2 Ryan Deakin Northwestern 23.6
157 4 #13 Steve Bleise Minnesota 21.4
157 5 #45 Jake Danishek Indiana 21.3
157 6 #8 Kaleb Young Iowa 20.0
157 7 #6 Alec Pantaleo Michigan 17.3
157 8 #7 Ke-Shawn Hayes Ohio State 13.3
157 9 #42 Eric Barone Illinois 11.6
157 10 #29 John Van Brill Rutgers 11.6
157 11 #20 Griffin Parriott Purdue 8.0
157 12 #78 Garrett Model Wisconsin 4.0
157 13 #73 Jacob Tucker Michigan State 3.9
165 1 #3 Alex Marinelli Iowa 44.7
165 2 #2 Evan Wick Wisconsin 34.6
165 3 #1 Vincenzo Joseph Penn State 30.8
165 4 #7 Logan Massa Michigan 29.6
165 5 #40 Bryce Martin Indiana 20.6
165 6 #12 Isaiah White Nebraska 19.1
165 7 #48 Carson Brolsma Minnesota 14.6
165 8 #61 Tyler Morland Northwestern 10.1
165 9 #73 Phillip Spadafora Maryland 7.7
165 10 #70 Stephan Glasgow Rutgers 5.0
165 11 #63 Kaleb Romero Ohio State 4.5
165 12 #62 Joey Gunther Illinois 4.2
165 13 #114 Cole Wysocki Purdue 3.9
174 1 #1 Mark Hall Penn State 32.1
174 2 #32 Drew Hughes Michigan State 28.3
174 3 #12 Michael Labriola Nebraska 27.7
174 4 #15 Devin Skatzka Minnesota 25.9
174 5 #5 Myles Amine Michigan 24.0
174 6 #24 Dylan Lydy Purdue 20.6
174 7 #43 Ethan Smith Ohio State 17.3
174 8 #27 Joseph Grello Rutgers 12.0
174 9 #47 Mitch Bowman Iowa 9.0
174 10 #20 Ryan Christensen Wisconsin 9.0
174 11 #73 Josh Ugalde Maryland 8.4
174 12 #19 Jacob Covaciu Indiana 6.0
174 13 #78 Carver James Illinois 5.3
174 14 #45 Johnny Sebastian Northwestern 4.7
184 1 #1 Myles Martin Ohio State 42.4
184 2 #11 Taylor Venz Nebraska 36.0
184 3 #13 Cameron Caffey Michigan State 31.3
184 4 #15 Cash Wilcke Iowa 29.6
184 5 #19 Emery Parker Illinois 20.6
184 6 #51 Max Lyon Purdue 20.6
184 7 #2 Shakur Rasheed Penn State 18.3
184 8 #22 Jelani Embree Michigan 13.3
184 9 #58 Norman Conley Indiana 12.9
184 10 #42 Mason Reinhardt Wisconsin 12.4
184 11 #48 Brandon Krone Minnesota 10.5
184 12 #33 Nicholas Gravina Rutgers 10.0
184 13 #87 Kyle Jasenski Maryland 3.9
197 1 #1 Bo Nickal Penn State 45.0
197 2 #3 Kollin Moore Ohio State 41.1
197 3 #15 Christian Brunner Purdue 29.6
197 4 #46 Brad Wilton Michigan State 29.3
197 5 #25 Eric Schultz Nebraska 27.0
197 6 #10 Jacob Warner Iowa 26.7
197 7 #28 Jackson Striggow Michigan 19.3
197 8 #69 Matt Correnti Rutgers 11.6
197 9 #65 Dylan Anderson Minnesota 10.5
197 10 #54 Beau Breske Wisconsin 8.2
197 11 #86 Andre Lee Illinois 4.0
197 12 #90 Jake Kleimola Indiana 4.0
197 13 #94 Zack Chakonis Northwestern 3.4
285 1 #1 Gable Steveson Minnesota 37.1
285 2 #4 Anthony Cassar Penn State 32.1
285 3 #12 Sam Stoll Iowa 25.5
285 4 #11 Mason Parris Michigan 20.0
285 5 #16 Trent Hillger Wisconsin 19.1
285 6 #23 David Jensen Nebraska 17.1
285 7 #26 Youssif Hemida Maryland 15.4
285 8 #20 Chase Singletary Ohio State 14.0
285 9 #51 Fletcher Miller Indiana 13.3
285 10 #63 Christian Colucci Rutgers 12.9
285 11 #19 Conan Jennings Northwestern 11.4
285 12 #45 Chase Beard Michigan State 11.0
285 13 #108 Deuce Rachal Illinois 3.9
285 14 #71 Jacob Aven Purdue 3.9
First, I'd like to that WrestleStat for having dual results in consistent formats which made splicing in Excel fairly painless.
Second, I'd like to discuss some of the issues I encountered and my "solutions"
1) Inconsistent number of matches wrestled.
Solution: Determine each team's "starter" by taking the wrestler with the most total matches for the team then add an estimator of future points by taking their average points so far multiplied by the number of conference duals remaining to arrive at their estimated final point total.
2) Ducking.
Solution: Remove the dual points from the 6's that weren't pins, so that's forfeits, DQ's and injuries. The wrestlers keep the prior points earned but don't get extra credit for the future.
3) Spreadsheet only shows wrestlers with conference wins.
Solution: Screw it, if you don't have a conference win, you don't get a seed from me.
4) Te'shan and other mixed-weight wrestlers.
Solution: I don't think my spreadsheet handled this perfectly because it's counting all matches wrestled by each wrestler but only their points in each specific weight class. So Te'Shan has 3 points at 165, 3 points at 174, and 3 matches wrestled on both. I don't think anyone else has wins at multiple weights but it's probably messing with the averages a bit.
Aaaaand my wife says it's time for bed so I'm just going to dump the list here and let you all tear it apart while I sleep. I'll be able to answer questions/comments when I get into work tomorrow (shh).
Weight Seed Wrestler School Projected Pts
125 1 #2 Sebastian Rivera Northwestern 38.8
125 2 #1 Spencer Lee Iowa 35.0
125 3 #7 Rayvon Foley Michigan State 30.9
125 4 #8 Sean Russell Minnesota 29.5
125 5 #40 Travis Piotrowski Illinois 22.0
125 6 #39 Devin Schroder Purdue 21.3
125 7 #17 Drew Mattin Michigan 21.0
125 8 #47 Zeke Moisey Nebraska 18.6
125 9 #16 Connor Brown Wisconsin 12.5
125 10 #56 Malik Heinselman Ohio State 9.0
125 11 #60 Liam Cronin Indiana 4.5
125 12 #54 Brandon Cray Maryland 4.0
125 13 #118 Shane Metzler Rutgers 4.0
125 14 #95 Devin Schnupp Penn State 3.9
133 1 #1 Stevan Micic Michigan 37.3
133 2 #2 Nick Suriano Rutgers 33.4
133 3 #6 Ethan Lizak Minnesota 29.7
133 4 #5 Austin DeSanto Iowa 25.2
133 5 #10 Roman Bravo-Young Penn State 19.6
133 6 #8 Luke Pletcher Ohio State 19.3
133 7 #18 Ben Thornton Purdue 14.1
133 8 #71 Jens Lantz Wisconsin 13.5
133 9 #52 Anthony Tutolo Michigan State 12.0
133 10 #64 Garrett Pepple Indiana 10.2
133 11 #60 Colin Valdiviez Northwestern 9.1
133 12 #47 Dylan Duncan Illinois 7.7
133 13 #171 Jevon Parrish Nebraska 3.6
141 1 #11 Mike Carr Illinois 29.6
141 2 #10 Mitch McKee Minnesota 28.1
141 3 #8 Tristan Moran Wisconsin 28.1
141 4 #2 Joseph McKenna Ohio State 28.0
141 5 #4 Nick Lee Penn State 27.0
141 6 #15 Max Murin Iowa 17.3
141 7 #31 Chad Red Nebraska 17.1
141 8 #26 Kanen Storr Michigan 16.7
141 9 #58 Peter Lipari Rutgers 12.9
141 10 #55 Nate Limmex Purdue 7.7
141 11 #69 Kyle Luigs Indiana 5.6
141 12 #78 Michael Doetsch Maryland 4.5
141 13 #51 Austin Eicher Michigan State 4.2
141 14 #106 Alec McKenna Northwestern 3.4
149 1 #1 Micah Jordan Ohio State 41.1
149 2 #2 Anthony Ashnault Rutgers 37.3
149 3 #11 Patricio Lugo Iowa 25.3
149 4 #40 Thomas Thorn Minnesota 21.4
149 5 #52 Malik Amine Michigan 15.4
149 6 #24 Cole Martin Wisconsin 14.6
149 7 #53 Alfred Bannister Maryland 14.0
149 8 #101 Fernie Silva Indiana 9.0
149 9 #31 Jarod Verkleeren Penn State 9.0
149 10 #55 Shayne Oster Northwestern 8.4
149 11 #65 Jordan Shearer Nebraska 8.0
149 12 #86 Jaden Enriquez Michigan State 7.7
149 13 #94 Christian Kanzler Illinois 4.0
157 1 #1 Jason Nolf Penn State 41.1
157 2 #4 Tyler Berger Nebraska 31.5
157 3 #2 Ryan Deakin Northwestern 23.6
157 4 #13 Steve Bleise Minnesota 21.4
157 5 #45 Jake Danishek Indiana 21.3
157 6 #8 Kaleb Young Iowa 20.0
157 7 #6 Alec Pantaleo Michigan 17.3
157 8 #7 Ke-Shawn Hayes Ohio State 13.3
157 9 #42 Eric Barone Illinois 11.6
157 10 #29 John Van Brill Rutgers 11.6
157 11 #20 Griffin Parriott Purdue 8.0
157 12 #78 Garrett Model Wisconsin 4.0
157 13 #73 Jacob Tucker Michigan State 3.9
165 1 #3 Alex Marinelli Iowa 44.7
165 2 #2 Evan Wick Wisconsin 34.6
165 3 #1 Vincenzo Joseph Penn State 30.8
165 4 #7 Logan Massa Michigan 29.6
165 5 #40 Bryce Martin Indiana 20.6
165 6 #12 Isaiah White Nebraska 19.1
165 7 #48 Carson Brolsma Minnesota 14.6
165 8 #61 Tyler Morland Northwestern 10.1
165 9 #73 Phillip Spadafora Maryland 7.7
165 10 #70 Stephan Glasgow Rutgers 5.0
165 11 #63 Kaleb Romero Ohio State 4.5
165 12 #62 Joey Gunther Illinois 4.2
165 13 #114 Cole Wysocki Purdue 3.9
174 1 #1 Mark Hall Penn State 32.1
174 2 #32 Drew Hughes Michigan State 28.3
174 3 #12 Michael Labriola Nebraska 27.7
174 4 #15 Devin Skatzka Minnesota 25.9
174 5 #5 Myles Amine Michigan 24.0
174 6 #24 Dylan Lydy Purdue 20.6
174 7 #43 Ethan Smith Ohio State 17.3
174 8 #27 Joseph Grello Rutgers 12.0
174 9 #47 Mitch Bowman Iowa 9.0
174 10 #20 Ryan Christensen Wisconsin 9.0
174 11 #73 Josh Ugalde Maryland 8.4
174 12 #19 Jacob Covaciu Indiana 6.0
174 13 #78 Carver James Illinois 5.3
174 14 #45 Johnny Sebastian Northwestern 4.7
184 1 #1 Myles Martin Ohio State 42.4
184 2 #11 Taylor Venz Nebraska 36.0
184 3 #13 Cameron Caffey Michigan State 31.3
184 4 #15 Cash Wilcke Iowa 29.6
184 5 #19 Emery Parker Illinois 20.6
184 6 #51 Max Lyon Purdue 20.6
184 7 #2 Shakur Rasheed Penn State 18.3
184 8 #22 Jelani Embree Michigan 13.3
184 9 #58 Norman Conley Indiana 12.9
184 10 #42 Mason Reinhardt Wisconsin 12.4
184 11 #48 Brandon Krone Minnesota 10.5
184 12 #33 Nicholas Gravina Rutgers 10.0
184 13 #87 Kyle Jasenski Maryland 3.9
197 1 #1 Bo Nickal Penn State 45.0
197 2 #3 Kollin Moore Ohio State 41.1
197 3 #15 Christian Brunner Purdue 29.6
197 4 #46 Brad Wilton Michigan State 29.3
197 5 #25 Eric Schultz Nebraska 27.0
197 6 #10 Jacob Warner Iowa 26.7
197 7 #28 Jackson Striggow Michigan 19.3
197 8 #69 Matt Correnti Rutgers 11.6
197 9 #65 Dylan Anderson Minnesota 10.5
197 10 #54 Beau Breske Wisconsin 8.2
197 11 #86 Andre Lee Illinois 4.0
197 12 #90 Jake Kleimola Indiana 4.0
197 13 #94 Zack Chakonis Northwestern 3.4
285 1 #1 Gable Steveson Minnesota 37.1
285 2 #4 Anthony Cassar Penn State 32.1
285 3 #12 Sam Stoll Iowa 25.5
285 4 #11 Mason Parris Michigan 20.0
285 5 #16 Trent Hillger Wisconsin 19.1
285 6 #23 David Jensen Nebraska 17.1
285 7 #26 Youssif Hemida Maryland 15.4
285 8 #20 Chase Singletary Ohio State 14.0
285 9 #51 Fletcher Miller Indiana 13.3
285 10 #63 Christian Colucci Rutgers 12.9
285 11 #19 Conan Jennings Northwestern 11.4
285 12 #45 Chase Beard Michigan State 11.0
285 13 #108 Deuce Rachal Illinois 3.9
285 14 #71 Jacob Aven Purdue 3.9
