OT: what's the covid end game?

[Sharkies]

For this thing to end, just curious on the AKB's thoughts.

Is it schools closed, every restaurant take out only, only stores open: groceries and pharmacies until a viable vaccine? That could mean a year+ of this?

Is it 2 months, and then social restrictions on life this summer?

Hope the virus mutates into something benign?

Just curious what the end game is on this..

 

[BobPSU92]

 

[dwiz]

Optimistic - social distancing works, herd immunity, hit the peak, new cases decrease, things normalize. A month or so more of social distancing. K-12 school done for the year. No prom, no spring sports.

Pessimistic - I don't even want to go there.

 

[Lyons212]

In 2 to 4 weeks it is business as usual. Based on the R0 value of 3 roughly 70% of the population needs antibodies to basically stop the transmission of the virus. The only way to get antibodies is to either get the virus or a vaccine. Vaccines take 12 to 18 months to develop if successful.

The current measures would need to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not happening, the economy would be destroyed.

The sad facts are that most people are going to get the virus, most people will recover without issue. High risk people are going to get it and eventually die. If you need a ventilator, your 1 year life expectancy is 30% based on previous studies, probably much lower for a virus that attacks the lungs.

If you are high risk, they need to shelter in place.

I believe the UK is handling it properly, do nothing and the virus burns out in 4 months. Do what we are doing long term, destroy the economy and a lot of people are still going to die.

 

[NittPicker]

There was finally toilet paper in the supermarket today so that means there must be light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

In 2 to 4 weeks it is business as usual. Based on the R0 value of 3 roughly 70% of the population needs antibodies to basically stop the transmission of the virus. The only way to get antibodies is to either get the virus or a vaccine. Vaccines take 12 to 18 months to develop if successful.

The current measures would need to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not happening, the economy would be destroyed.

The sad facts are that most people are going to get the virus, most people will recover without issue. High risk people are going to get it and eventually die. If you need a ventilator, your 1 year life expectancy is 30% based on previous studies, probably much lower for a virus that attacks the lungs.

If you are high risk, they need to shelter in place.

I believe the UK is handling it properly, do nothing and the virus burns out in 4 months. Do what we are doing long term, destroy the economy and a lot of people are still going to die.

The one thing I would add is they will probably come up with an antiviral that works within the next several months which should help significantly. Also I would predict they get a vaccine a little quicker than normal.

 

[Ranger Dan]

I read online today that the peak as far as number of infected people in the US may be in 45 days.

 

[MarkPSU]

So without the benefit of hindsight, how do we know which path is best? There are pluses/minuses to both. A huge spike potentially over runs the healthcare system bringing other consequences, but maybe gets us and the economy to normal sooner. A flatter curve keeps things manageable for longer, but hurts the economy much more. If the percentage of people that get the virus doesn’t change in either scenario, is it better to “rip the bandaid off”?

 

[Lion Son/Husband/Father]

Anyone here go to a bar tonight if one were open?

 

[SLUPSU]

In 2 to 4 weeks it is business as usual. Based on the R0 value of 3 roughly 70% of the population needs antibodies to basically stop the transmission of the virus. The only way to get antibodies is to either get the virus or a vaccine. Vaccines take 12 to 18 months to develop if successful.

The current measures would need to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not happening, the economy would be destroyed.

The sad facts are that most people are going to get the virus, most people will recover without issue. High risk people are going to get it and eventually die. If you need a ventilator, your 1 year life expectancy is 30% based on previous studies, probably much lower for a virus that attacks the lungs.

If you are high risk, they need to shelter in place.

I believe the UK is handling it properly, do nothing and the virus burns out in 4 months. Do what we are doing long term, destroy the economy and a lot of people are still going to die.

The brits have seen the stupidity of their ways and have backed off their original and dangerous approach.

 

[Lyons212]

The one thing I would add is they will probably come up with an antiviral that works within the next several months which should help significantly. Also I would predict they get a vaccine a little quicker than normal.

I heard some doctor say there has never been a successful corona virus vaccine. No idea if he is right.

 

[ThePennsyOracle]

Optimistic - social distancing works, herd immunity, hit the peak, new cases decrease, things normalize. A month or so more of social distancing. K-12 school done for the year. No prom, no spring sports.

Pessimistic - I don't even want to go there.

Yes. Also we should pray that some of the antiviral therapies do work.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

I heard some doctor say there has never been a successful corona virus vaccine. No idea if he is right.

There are a couple of promising antivirals in trial now. Also there is some promising news about blood plasma antibodies from China. Australia as of a couple days ago thinks they are on the cusp of a vaccine and a number of other countries and companies are working furiously on others.

 

[The Spin Meister]

So without the benefit of hindsight, how do we know which path is best? There are pluses/minuses to both. A huge spike potentially over runs the healthcare system bringing other consequences, but maybe gets us and the economy to normal sooner. A flatter curve keeps things manageable for longer, but hurts the economy much more. If the percentage of people that get the virus doesn’t change in either scenario, is it better to “rip the bandaid off”?

---
A really tough call. People die either way and I don't know which minimizes the toll. In a massive economic slowdown people die even without a pandemic. Job loss, suicide, drug abuse, increased crime, poor health, many more.

Glad I am not charge.

 

[BobPSU92]

There was finally toilet paper in the supermarket today so that means there must be light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[BobPSU92]

I read online today that the peak as far as number of infected people in the US may be in 45 days.

If we suspended SOCIAL. DISTANCING. , we could get there faster.

 

[SLUPSU]

I heard some doctor say there has never been a successful corona virus vaccine. No idea if he is right.

Found this.. fwiw

https://www.discovermagazine.com/he...gap-measure-against-the-new-coronavirus-study

"A SARS vaccine was developed in response to the 2002 outbreak, but was never sold since public health measures got the disease under control before it was ready."

 

[slykens]

If you believe the Chinese, they’re down to tens of new cases per day, if that.

They said ten to fourteen weeks for it to run its course which puts us to early June to match.

 

[marshall23]

It will be 8 weeks and things will start to return to normal.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Flatten the curve. Save lives.

 

[RedBankerEngr]

Your grandparents and parents have been thru worse - WWI, Depression, WW2 and more!

Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and plow forward like they did!

Snap out of it!

 

[interrobang]

Covid itself will be in the rear view mirror long before the economy returns and the fear of "social nearing" fades away

 

[nittany119]

Hearing Rutgres just canceled graduation.

 

[ThePennsyOracle]

Hearing Rutgres just canceled graduation.

PSU will be doing the same in short order.

 

[BobPSU92]

Hearing Rutgres just canceled graduation.

Don’t they do that every year? No one wants to be seen graduating from rutgres.

 

[massimoManca II]

There was finally toilet paper in the supermarket today so that means there must be light at the end of the tunnel.

There’s a metaphor in there somewhere*

 

[AWS1022]

Your grandparents and parents have been thru worse - WWI, Depression, WW2 and more!

Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and plow forward like they did!

Snap out of it!

From an economic standpoint we’re not sure if they’ve been through worse. We’ll have to wait and see what the long term impact of this is to the economy. It may be another depression or worse. Too early to say our grandparents have been through worse.

 

[demlion]

The Covid end game? Death.

 

[RedBankerEngr]

From an economic standpoint we’re not sure if they’ve been through worse. We’ll have to wait and see what the long term impact of this is to the economy. It may be another depression or worse. Too early to say our grandparents have been through worse.

When the CCC camps are back in the mountains of PA, then maybe?

The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression. Unemployment remained above 14% from 1931 to 1940. It remained in the single digits until September 1982 when it reached 10.1%. During the Great Recession, unemployment reached 10% in October 2009.

 

[RickinDayton]

For this thing to end, just curious on the AKB's thoughts.

Is it schools closed, every restaurant take out only, only stores open: groceries and pharmacies until a viable vaccine? That could mean a year+ of this?

Is it 2 months, and then social restrictions on life this summer?

Hope the virus mutates into something benign?

Just curious what the end game is on this..

Well right now there are news reports that lots of college students are doing their spring break thing in the South & Southwest who are not practicing social distancing. This is a serious concern for potential spread and especially when they head back to their homes across America. This imho is very selfish behavior.

 

[CVLion]

I think the answer is, there is no end game yet... we’re just not capable of knowing the right parameters at this point

 

[TheBumble]

The brits have seen the stupidity of their ways and have backed off their original and dangerous approach.

Yes, they are now following a similar plan to us. Denmark is apparently allowing everyone under the age of 70 (so long as not at risk) to go about their normal lives. Everyone else is in quarantine. Let the virus run its course among people it won't hurt and don't ruin the economy. We'll see whose plan is better in a couple months.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

Yes, they are now following a similar plan to us. Denmark is apparently allowing everyone under the age of 70 (so long as not at risk) to go about their normal lives. Everyone else is in quarantine. Let the virus run its course among people it won't hurt and don't ruin the economy. We'll see whose plan is better in a couple months.

52 percent of the population in our country has some type of prexisting condition although some dont realize it.

 

[Ward Hog]

If China with a poor healthcare system, but blunt force government control can keep it at .08 percent of their population when they did nothing for almost 2 months, we should be able to do at least as well. The worst is yet to come, hospitals will be burdened beyond belief, but we should be seeing improvement within 8 weeks. Of course, if we flatten the curve too much, it will extend the time and continue to pound our economy. We'll see. Hope it runs out of steam so we can start worrying about important stuff like who'll step up in the wide receiver room.

 

[SLUPSU]

Yes, they are now following a similar plan to us. Denmark is apparently allowing everyone under the age of 70 (so long as not at risk) to go about their normal lives. Everyone else is in quarantine. Let the virus run its course among people it won't hurt and don't ruin the economy. We'll see whose plan is better in a couple months.

This doesn't sound like a country that letting the virus run its course.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-03...gainst-coronavirus-you-cant-do-enough-contain

 

[Ten Thousan Marbles]

This document has not been officially released yet. Looks like it was obtained by the NYT.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

 

[SLUPSU]

This document has not been officially released yet. Looks like it was obtained by the NYT.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

wooo boy.... this WILL be THE news cycle for the next few days.

 

[Storm at Sea]

If China with a poor healthcare system, but blunt force government control can keep it at .08 percent of their population when they did nothing for almost 2 months, we should be able to do at least as well. The worst is yet to come, hospitals will be burdened beyond belief, but we should be seeing improvement within 8 weeks. Of course, if we flatten the curve too much, it will extend the time and continue to pound our economy. We'll see. Hope it runs out of steam so we can start worrying about important stuff like who'll step up in the wide receiver room.

I do not believe the Chinese COVID data. Same can been said for Iran.

 

[Lyons212]

Found this.. fwiw

https://www.discovermagazine.com/he...gap-measure-against-the-new-coronavirus-study

"A SARS vaccine was developed in response to the 2002 outbreak, but was never sold since public health measures got the disease under control before it was ready."

I believe the SARS vaccine was also horrible and truly was a case of the treatment being worse than the disease. It was for either SARS or MERS.

If it was successful, big Pharma would still be marketing it just like they do for the flu vaccine that some years is a complete miss.

 

[AWS1022]

When the CCC camps are back in the mountains of PA, then maybe?

The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression. Unemployment remained above 14% from 1931 to 1940. It remained in the single digits until September 1982 when it reached 10.1%. During the Great Recession, unemployment reached 10% in October 2009.

And 24.9% may be low compared to what’s coming. Many of the businesses being forced to close will never come back. Many of the businesses right now are laying people off with no promise of a job down the road. This is not something that’s going to go away quickly...the long term implications are staggering if this lasts.