saw zero of this on the news and since they said the same about the UK and SA variant and both of those are nowhere near the issue they said, doubtful this is the case.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
saw zero of this on the news and since they said the same about the UK and SA variant and both of those are nowhere near the issue they said, doubtful this is the case.
Researchers find worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City | CNN
Two separate teams of researchers have found a worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City that carries mutations that help it evade the body's natural immune response -- as well as the effects of monoclonal antibody treatments.
I prefer to call it vigilance. I've heard enough of the sensationalist claims dating back to the very beginning of this. Remember the old it's nothing more than the cold claims from some here and other "sources"?
Last edited:
Researchers find worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City | CNN
Two separate teams of researchers have found a worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City that carries mutations that help it evade the body's natural immune response -- as well as the effects of monoclonal antibody treatments.www.cnn.com
I prefer to call it vigilance. I've heard enough of the sensationalist claims dating back to the very beginning of this. Remember the old it's nothing more than the cold claims from some here and otherplaces?
Key quote in the article:
"However, we don't have enough data to firm up this point now."
Now that the UK and SA variants have proven to be nothing special, the media has to fear porn it up again
66.1% may be good enough to give it to those under 50 with no comorbidities, since their chances of getting seriously ill from Covid are way, way less than the older, more vulnerable population. But, if I am in one of the more vulnerable groups, I want 2 shots with 90-95% effectiveness. 66.1% isn't good enough.
Yep, just another hoax. Head in the sand approach always works best. Don't even report it.
Last edited:
Not so sure. Its only 66-72 effective. I'd rather get the ones that are 95% effective. Guess if you are young and invincible then yeah the J&J is ok. But if your going to take a vaccine take the one that almost always works.
Last edited:
66-72% effective is still a hell of a lot better than the flu vaccine which is 50% effective in a good year.
In USA, J&J won't have their production to the point of being able to have a huge effect in USA. Moderna + Pfizer alone will have enough vaccines to provide everbody in USA over 18 by end of May potentially (definetly enough for those that actually want to get one). J&J production is unknown right now but based on reporting, doubtful at even 1 million doses per week. Moderna is at 5M+ per week and increasing and Pfizer is saying they are at 10M+ per week and should be at 15M+ per week by April. So talking 20M-25M per week versus 1M per week.
But worldwide, J&J and Novavax are going to dominate in Africa, South America, Asia as they are one shot versus two and have standard refrigeration. Remember beyond the 330M people in the USA, there is another 7.5 BILLION people that need this.
The problem is the way these articles are written.. The headline and first two paragraphs would be all about how terrible this could be. Next several paragraphs would be quotes from researchers, doctors, government types again about this could be really bad. Somewhere around paragraph 8-12 there will be the quote saying this is all preliminary, we don't really know, we need more research.....knowing full well very few read the entire articles. Then close with some more fear porn.
This a tried and true methodology of the media. I have seen this in written articles and broadcast news for years. Local, state, national, and global news. And on every subject possible....wars, the economy, politicians, shootings, racial issues. The 'news' is all about clicks, selling papers and magazines, getting advertisement dollars.
Last edited:
Exactly....MSNBC on the other night with a graphic saying how only 5% of the population has been fully vaccinated and pushing an agenda of continued lockdowns and masks and fear, etc....CNN the other night had a guy on that had his graphic that 17% of eligible (over 18 years of age) has been vaccinated (at least one shot) and that by end of May there will be enough vaccines produced for all those eligible based on current projections and we should all be feeling much better as what we as a nation have been waiting for since last March is going to happen over the next 3 months in that a vaccine that is very effective is going to be given to the adult population of the USA. It was so stark in their messaging. Even the CNN host (Chris Cuomo) tried to punch holes in this guys presentation and the guy just looked a Cuomo and said we have to stop with the fear, the vaccine works, we have 3 approved makers that are going to have these vaccines ready, we have shown we can put those doses in arms and are increasing that capacity weekly, and we need to start to think about life after Covid.
That's not really true. There's a large portion of the world population with very high levels of pre-existing immunity that a vaccine would be a waste for.
There is certainly truth to this. But in these circumstances, it's far better than downplaying it like we saw others do over and over again during the beginning of all of this. And it is partly because of that "strategy" why we are where we are. Some here don't seem to want hear any news that may conflict with their agendas. In other words, I'm not going to assume what the researchers at Columbia are saying is all BS. Some here really want to believe that.
Last edited:
that would be awesome, but only believe it when it happens. They literally admit right now they only have about 3M doses to ship and have had at least 3 months (beginning of December) that they have known that they were going to get approval in the end of February timeframe. SO in 3 months they could make 1 million doses per month but in month 4 they are going to 20M doses per month. No way that happens. I really hope that J&J gets their act together and can get 20M doses by end of April or even by end of May as obviously a one shot approval is great and would make the vaccination of the under 65 and healthy crowd go much faster. But no way I believe you turn on a manufacturing spigot like that.
1.8M shots yesterday so total up to 68.27M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.31M. 74.5% of shots administered is the national average, 13.9% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 6.5% with double dose. So far, 46.1 million have received at least one dose. At least 21.6 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 91.64M compared to yesterday 88.62M. 16.44 doses delivered so far this week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.
77,377 positives reported yesterday compared to 72,498 week over week. 7-day rolling average is constant for this week after several weeks of dropping and is at 71,412
Fatality was 2414 compared to 2525 yesterday and 2759 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2082.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 52,669 down from yesterday 54,118, compared to 62,300 week over week .
So looks like 3 or maybe 4 straight days of positives shooting up. I believe it was 57K early in the week to 77K now. I did some looking on line and saw some states did not report any cases on Feb 20 or 21. Connecticut, Idaho, kansas, michigan, rhode island. Wyoming and Louisiana nothing on the 20th and then some other states like washington and oregon with barely any on the 20th or 21st and them a huge amount the next day or two.
Looks like the 20th-22nd were bad accounting days for states overall. Probably need to exclude this week from the overall data until it gets readjusted for proper dates.
Last edited:
Yeah, I am giving this week sort of a mulligan as I am sure that last week there was a lot of under reporting due to the winter weather issues. So last week's numbers were low and now all the catch-up occuring this week so double whammy as instead of being '10' last week it was reported as '8' and then that extra 2 gets added this week so the numbers look off. So instead of 10 last week and 9 this week and showing going down. We did 8 last week and 9+2= 11 this week so looks like numbers going up. So considering the very small amount of increase, I am not real concerned. Combine that with vaccination numbers being down also. So I think that type of reporting will all get cleared out this week and then next week we should start to see going down again (as now the opposite will occur in that in comparing the numbers for next week will get compared to artificially higher numbers this week).
Anyway...everything now is about vaccinations delivered to states and then pricks in arms. That is the most important metric. And the other thing is hospitalization numbers still coming down everyday so we saw no anomaly in that reporting which we also know is the most reliable reporting.
So i have a question on the logic of vaccinations. [I am 68 with other issues and still waiting for dose 1 [March 16th]
Lately there has been press regarding the "real" number of cases. Rather than 25 million it is more likely in excess of 100 million. So my questions and assumptions are as follows
. Do we do any anti body testing before the vaccination . [I don't think so]
. If 100 million people have some sort of immunity already why wouldn't we move them to the back of the line? [just to May or June] and consider giving them the a 1 dose Moderna/Phizer or the J&J vaccine?
. It seems if we are vaccinating folks who already have had COVID and now have some level of immunity we are wasting a lot of vaccine [1 or even 2 doses] that almost certainly could wait a couple months while getting more old folks. While i am scheduled for March 16 the date from my home county is May 6th. I will be driving about 3.5 hrs to get my shot in March.
Lately there has been press regarding the "real" number of cases. Rather than 25 million it is more likely in excess of 100 million. So my questions and assumptions are as follows
. Do we do any anti body testing before the vaccination . [I don't think so]
. If 100 million people have some sort of immunity already why wouldn't we move them to the back of the line? [just to May or June] and consider giving them the a 1 dose Moderna/Phizer or the J&J vaccine?
. It seems if we are vaccinating folks who already have had COVID and now have some level of immunity we are wasting a lot of vaccine [1 or even 2 doses] that almost certainly could wait a couple months while getting more old folks. While i am scheduled for March 16 the date from my home county is May 6th. I will be driving about 3.5 hrs to get my shot in March.
You don't need antibody testing to get vaccinated.
They cannot move to back of line Covid people as getting antibody testing isn't free and many people have not done that testing. Considering there is always the potential for false positives, also another reason to get vaccinated. In perfect world that might make some sense that those that know they had covid moves to back of line, but practically speaking no way to enforce that.
I had Covid in December. So I'm moving myself to the back of the line. I won't get vaccinated until I can just walk in and get it at my leisure. Now that I think about it, I may never get the vaccine because by the time we can get it leisurely we will probably be at herd immunity.
Good for you. Someone in your state will get vaccinated sooner than otherwise and I do not think you are at any risk.
Ok so we are spending 8 bazillion dollars on COVID relief bills so the thought we don’t have a quick antibody test beforehand is silly. Again as I stated earlier IF 100 million people have been exposed and therefore have some level of immunity that is 1 in 3 people that could be getting vaccinated that would be better served going to folks with no immunities. I am not critical of either party specially but I am of the process in general.
The media doesn't have that kind of patience. We'll start seeing headlines saying "covid surge starts again!"
The logic is that we do not know how long immunity will last in wild (naturally acquired) cases. There have been no pre-vax antibody tests because of the afore mentioned statement.
When Fauci talks about 70% to 90% vaccinated for herd immunity and they talk about 330 million Americans are they including children 15 or under which aren’t eligible at this time - if not then they need to readjust what presentable of what total number they mean and remove the 15 and under population from the calculation otherwise we will never get to those levels.
not sure what you are talking about. in an ideal world the covid positive confirmed people would be last in line. practically speaking, how would you prove somebody had covid. are you going to force 335M people to take antibody tests and provide documentation before getting a vaccination. That would be a nightmare and delay the vaccinations. plus those that are high risk that had covid will still benefit from a vaccination.
in addition, it is suspected that 2-4x the confirmed positive have had covid so somewhere between 50-100M.
in general, the vaccinations are going relatively well. some states screwed up the initial rollout as they were not ready. but most have made up for that except for a few (unfortunately PA included in that few). the only other issue is it was dumb to go from nursing home/medical workers to 65 and over and 65 and under high risk. SHould have went to 75 and over first for month of January and then to 65 and over/65 and under high risk. as the 75 and older crowd should have had some time to get vaccinated before everybody else.
Same here. I had it in December and will wait to get the vaccine until there is ample supply.
I know it's so pathetic here with some of the parents who want to keep kids out of school forever. Some of them will see an increase of 10 cases higher than the day before and automatically declare we should be closing things back down again. They don't have any common sense that overall the cases are down by 50% from 10 days ago.
Last edited:
Katchthis
Yea I get that but we are talking 2-3 months tops . Don’t you think by May -June vaccines will be readily available. So today we have people with likely but not known for certain how long immunities and another group in a age group where this virus is dangerous and no immunities. Who you should give it too is pretty obvious to me. RE how long the antibodies last what does “the science “ tell us?
Last edited:
“Besides there are 50-100 million cases that are positive that we aren’t aware of.” My point exactly these are “wasted” vaccines to use this soon. “How do you prove it” well I have had an appointment for over a week and it is still 2.5 weeks away. If I were required to bring results of an antibody test I could have done it. You said you think things are going well. I think your numbers suggested about 13% of the population has been vaccinated. If 1/3 of those already had immunities then we have protected only about 9%. To me not great for 2.5 months into the process.
I could be incorrect, however I thought I read somewhere that the J&J vaccine even if you get Covid will keep one out of the hospital over 97% of the time. Again, maybe I misunderstood.
That is what I have seen, too. You could still get sick but it would be relatively mild.
Johnson & Johnson has followed Moderna and Pfizer with an application to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization of its vaccine. Novavax and AstraZeneca might not be far behind. Not surprisingly, people are concerned about getting the “wrong” vaccine when they hear that some are 66% effective while others reduce infections by 95%.
Our advice is simple: Take whatever vaccine is offered to you. Right now, all of the vaccines are the “best.” This is what we’re doing for ourselves.
The varying “effectiveness” rates miss the most important point: The vaccines were all 100% effective in the vaccine trials in stopping hospitalizations and death.Waiting for a more effective vaccine is actually the worst thing you can do to lower your risk of getting severely ill and dying of COVID-19.
No death or serious illness in 7 trials
We do not vaccinate to prevent a minor case of the sniffles. The reason we have vaccines is to prevent severe disease and death caused by infections. The polio vaccine prevents paralysis. The measles vaccine prevents pneumonia, brain infections and blindness. Annual influenza vaccines prevent pneumonia, sepsis and heart attacks. If COVID-19 only caused a cold, we would not have bothered to develop vaccines for it. While there are many mild cases of COVID-19, about a fifth of infections result in severe disease, and nearly 1% of infected people die. For older people and those with underlying health problems, the risk of deathcan be anywhere from 10 to several hundred times higher.
All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed large efficacy trials — Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac — appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. Not one vaccinated person has gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person has died of COVID-19.
Not all infections are equal. People who are vaccinated against viruses still occasionally get infected. But thanks to a vaccine-primed immune system, the infections never progress to make them seriously ill. The vaccine efficacy rates vary only with respect to mild forms of COVID-19 illness. When it comes to the measures that really matter — hospitalizations and death — they are all functionally the same.
It is not just the vaccinated individual who benefits from vaccination. Most vaccines also reduce transmission of infection among people, and in so doing, help protect those who fail to mount an effective immune response to vaccines or who can’t get vaccinated because of their age or because they have a compromised immune system.
COVID and schools:If opening schools is so important, why are we skimping on protections that curb COVID?
It is hard to know how well COVID-19 vaccines prevent transmission, or how quickly we will get to herd immunity by looking only at individuals. We do not know yet how much transmission can occur from vaccinated persons with milder infections. But a vaccine does not need to prevent all infections to make a big dent in transmission; lowering the amount of virus a person sheds could be enough.
Meanwhile, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mutating. Viruses can only mutate when they replicate, and we have allowed them to spread — and replicate — like wildfire. The best way to prevent mutations is to reduce transmission, and this requires wearing a high-quality mask, staying in our social bubble, and ensuring good ventilation and air filtration.
Don't hold out for the 'best' vaccine
The bad news is some mutant virus variants can be more dangerous. Variants of concern are those that are more transmissible, more virulent, or capable of evading the immune protection acquired from vaccination or natural infection. The B.1.1.7 variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, seems to spread more easily and cause more severe disease, while the variants first found in South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1) seem to at least partially evade immunity from current vaccines, natural infection as well as certain therapies.
For now, however, our vaccines remain effective, especially at preventing hospitalization and death. In Israel, where the majority of people 60 and older have been vaccinated, COVID-19 cases have dropped by 41% and hospitalizations are down by a third, despite the arrival of more dangerous variants.
COVID vaccines:Employers can play a bigger role in making sure Americans get COVID-19 vaccines
Importantly, vaccine effectiveness is not the only thing you should care about. Durability of immunity, convenience and side effects also matter. It will be easier to vaccinate many “hard to reach” populations (like migrant workers and homeless people) with a single dose, and only the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was studied as a one-dose regimen. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have a rare but nonzero chance of severe allergic reactions, which have not been observed in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. We will not have long-term data on the duration immunity with any of the vaccines until enough time has passed. No study, no matter how expensive, can speed up time.
When it comes to COVID-19 vaccines, time is the most important factor. Every day that passes without getting vaccinated is a day where you have a higher risk of getting infected, becoming seriously ill and dying. Whatever benefit you think you might get from waiting for the “best” vaccine isn’t worth the risk you take on while waiting. The best thing you can do is get vaccinated as soon as you’re able with whichever vaccine is available to you first.
Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel (@ZekeEmanuel), Dr. Celine Gounder (@celinegounder), epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, Ph.D. (@mtosterholm), Dr. Luciana Borio (@llborio), Dr. Atul Gawande (@Atul_Gawande) and immunologist Rick Bright, Ph.D. (@RickABright) are members of the Biden-Harris Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board.
Our advice is simple: Take whatever vaccine is offered to you. Right now, all of the vaccines are the “best.” This is what we’re doing for ourselves.
The varying “effectiveness” rates miss the most important point: The vaccines were all 100% effective in the vaccine trials in stopping hospitalizations and death.Waiting for a more effective vaccine is actually the worst thing you can do to lower your risk of getting severely ill and dying of COVID-19.
No death or serious illness in 7 trials
We do not vaccinate to prevent a minor case of the sniffles. The reason we have vaccines is to prevent severe disease and death caused by infections. The polio vaccine prevents paralysis. The measles vaccine prevents pneumonia, brain infections and blindness. Annual influenza vaccines prevent pneumonia, sepsis and heart attacks. If COVID-19 only caused a cold, we would not have bothered to develop vaccines for it. While there are many mild cases of COVID-19, about a fifth of infections result in severe disease, and nearly 1% of infected people die. For older people and those with underlying health problems, the risk of deathcan be anywhere from 10 to several hundred times higher.
All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed large efficacy trials — Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac — appear to be 100% effective for serious complications. Not one vaccinated person has gotten sick enough to require hospitalization. Not a single vaccinated person has died of COVID-19.
Not all infections are equal. People who are vaccinated against viruses still occasionally get infected. But thanks to a vaccine-primed immune system, the infections never progress to make them seriously ill. The vaccine efficacy rates vary only with respect to mild forms of COVID-19 illness. When it comes to the measures that really matter — hospitalizations and death — they are all functionally the same.
It is not just the vaccinated individual who benefits from vaccination. Most vaccines also reduce transmission of infection among people, and in so doing, help protect those who fail to mount an effective immune response to vaccines or who can’t get vaccinated because of their age or because they have a compromised immune system.
COVID and schools:If opening schools is so important, why are we skimping on protections that curb COVID?
It is hard to know how well COVID-19 vaccines prevent transmission, or how quickly we will get to herd immunity by looking only at individuals. We do not know yet how much transmission can occur from vaccinated persons with milder infections. But a vaccine does not need to prevent all infections to make a big dent in transmission; lowering the amount of virus a person sheds could be enough.
Meanwhile, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mutating. Viruses can only mutate when they replicate, and we have allowed them to spread — and replicate — like wildfire. The best way to prevent mutations is to reduce transmission, and this requires wearing a high-quality mask, staying in our social bubble, and ensuring good ventilation and air filtration.
Don't hold out for the 'best' vaccine
The bad news is some mutant virus variants can be more dangerous. Variants of concern are those that are more transmissible, more virulent, or capable of evading the immune protection acquired from vaccination or natural infection. The B.1.1.7 variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, seems to spread more easily and cause more severe disease, while the variants first found in South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1) seem to at least partially evade immunity from current vaccines, natural infection as well as certain therapies.
For now, however, our vaccines remain effective, especially at preventing hospitalization and death. In Israel, where the majority of people 60 and older have been vaccinated, COVID-19 cases have dropped by 41% and hospitalizations are down by a third, despite the arrival of more dangerous variants.
COVID vaccines:Employers can play a bigger role in making sure Americans get COVID-19 vaccines
Importantly, vaccine effectiveness is not the only thing you should care about. Durability of immunity, convenience and side effects also matter. It will be easier to vaccinate many “hard to reach” populations (like migrant workers and homeless people) with a single dose, and only the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was studied as a one-dose regimen. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have a rare but nonzero chance of severe allergic reactions, which have not been observed in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. We will not have long-term data on the duration immunity with any of the vaccines until enough time has passed. No study, no matter how expensive, can speed up time.
When it comes to COVID-19 vaccines, time is the most important factor. Every day that passes without getting vaccinated is a day where you have a higher risk of getting infected, becoming seriously ill and dying. Whatever benefit you think you might get from waiting for the “best” vaccine isn’t worth the risk you take on while waiting. The best thing you can do is get vaccinated as soon as you’re able with whichever vaccine is available to you first.
Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel (@ZekeEmanuel), Dr. Celine Gounder (@celinegounder), epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, Ph.D. (@mtosterholm), Dr. Luciana Borio (@llborio), Dr. Atul Gawande (@Atul_Gawande) and immunologist Rick Bright, Ph.D. (@RickABright) are members of the Biden-Harris Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board.
To no one's surprise, the FDA just voted 22-0 to give EUA to the J&J vaccine.
if 335M people in the USA had to get antibody tests, that would take months alone, so that doesn't make any sense and would complicate and delay vaccinations. not sure why you don't get that.
as for your comment about 2.5 months into process being not great, what would you have improved. the first month was rough but after that it going pretty well. by late January, we were vaccine supply constrained, so not a whole lot could be done about that as the Pharma's are making vaccines at production rates that a a year ago would have literally been unfathomable. So what part are you disappointed with?
If you keep going back to covid positive people should not be in line for vaccines now, I will point back to the first paragraph above, logistically and practically that doesn't make any sense.
good question and on that he won't answer. I am pretty sure there are Phase 2 (maybe Phase 3) trials going on with younger kids now. Plus it appears younger kids are not very prone to getting covid due to natural immunity. But is a question that is going to have to be answered this summer as that is the timing when all adults will have the ability to get a vaccine. the bigger issue is going to be the 20-25% of the adult population right now that says they are not going to get the vaccine, what happens with them? that question is going to happen by May potentially if the numbers on vaccines dosages by the big three come to fruition in the next few months.
There are trial for kids 12+ but that's a whole different animal. Those won't be done any time soon and maybe not even this year.
