OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Pfizer says its Covid vaccine trial for kids ages 12 to 15 is fully enrolled
Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine is authorized for people age 16 and older. The company's trial in kids 12-15 is now fully enrolled, a key step for use in kids.
Science | AAAS
science.sciencemag.org
Last edited:
Yeah I just don't understand some people who would wait to get something other than the Johnson & Johnson one. Unless they've got some other health issue they're already 90 + percent for sure going to recover and now add the vaccine even at 66% Effectiveness and they are way ahead of the game.
Last edited:
Moderna was having trouble filling its trialPfizer says its Covid vaccine trial for kids ages 12 to 15 is fully enrolled
Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine is authorized for people age 16 and older. The company's trial in kids 12-15 is now fully enrolled, a key step for use in kids.www.cnbc.com
Science | AAAS
Moderna struggles to find 3,000 adolescent volunteers needed for COVID-19 vaccine trial
More than 2 million minors were diagnosed with COVID-19 in 2020, and many more probably contracted the disease but were never diagnosed.
www.usatoday.com
Heard on TV that California received 1.4 million vaccines on Wednesday. There was a delay due to the severe weather in the Midwest, last week. Suddenly the pharmacies in our area are now flush with shots available. I get my first shot tomorrow...Saturday.
Last edited:
So PA has received 2.2 million doses since inception and California gets 1.4 million in 1 day? WTH?????
Labs are reporting positives as much as 11 months old today so expect a spike tomorrow, at least in PA.
Make America California Again! New biden-HARRIS slogan. Please try to keep up.
2.2M shots yesterday so total up to 70.45M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.45M. 74.5% of shots administered is the national average, 14.2% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 6.8% with double dose. So far, 47.2 million have received at least one dose. At least 22.6 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 91.64M compared to yesterday 94.31M. 2.67 shots delivered yesterday so 19.11M doses delivered so far this week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.
80,625 positives reported yesterday compared to 85,444 week over week. 7-day rolling average is constant for this week after several weeks of dropping and is at 71,050
Fatality was 2246 compared to 2414 yesterday and 2645 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2033.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 51,116 down from yesterday 52,669, compared to 59.882 week over week .
So the big news yesterday was J&J vaccine was approved. Reports are that about 3.5M+ doses of J&J will ship out this coming week. As most know, J&J is a one shot vaccine versus two shots with the other major benefit being it can be stored in a refrigerator versus freezer. A little controversy as the efficacy was shown to be 66% worldwide and 72% in the USA versus the 95% of the two shot regime. Discussion around that was a little bit that since J&J vaccine Phase 3 trial was completed later date wise then Pfizer/Moderna and that it had a higher percent of the variants out there to deal with such that most likely lowered the efficacy somewhat. The point hammered home though on the J&J (as well as Pfizer & Moderna) is that 100% of the people in the Phase 2 and 3 trials NEVER were hospitalized or died. So the difference between the 72% and 95% is only that a few more J&J participants had moderate symptons (ie...feel like crap for a few days) not that it doesn't work.
Another nice note about today's numbers is that the week over week were down. So as I was saying, I am hoping/thinking that the numbers plateauing/rising slightly earlier this week was more about reporting anomalies due to the winter storm then what was actually happening. One main reason to believe that was hospitalizations still kept coming down and they are not really subject to the same reporting issues we know exist for daily positives and fatality charts.
Big day on the vaccine dosing front also. Great to see 19M+ doses delivered this week which confirmed the 13M+ doses per week announced actually happened. Add in that J&J is now in the mix at some level which is still yet unknown as J&J announced that they will have 10M 'supply' available by end of March (note some double talk in their language where they don't say vaccines available but 'supply' telling to me that probably doesn't mean doses in a bottle ready to ship) but at least that means to me that J&J has probably stabilized their production to the point where we can count on them for some level of vaccines here in March and hopefully really ramping up in April/May. Point being between the 13M+ weekly for Pfizer/Moderna which we know is now real, plus the J&J vaccine, I think yesterday's 1.8M shots will be the LAST day below 2M shots daily until summer when it goes below that because everybody has been vaccinated. The supply is now there between the three to have 2M+ per day from here on out.
Thanks for all the work of doing these daily updates. Seeing the progress made weekly really helps put everything in perspective. Why I even detect a hint of optimism!
Your posts should be picked by a national news network to counteract all the fear porn that is hammering people daily.!
Hospitals are mandated to report daily. And hospitals stay open during bad weather events, where as testing sites close and people's casual desire to get tested drops in bad weather. And there is no mandate for labs to report tests (especially negative ones).
Of course today's numbers are down week over week. it is a shame that basically you the head medical people really refuse to treat the USA public as adults. just like when they told everybody you don't need masks to try and trick people into not hoarding them a year ago because they really wanted to make sure the medical professionals got them instead, is the same thing happening here. Don't level with the public and basically say 'hey, there is light at the end of the tunnel, we need to remain diligent for a few more months to get a bulk of the public vaccinated and herd immunity going. The Pharms companies are doing a great job upping production such that we are beating estimates meaning more people are going to be able to get vaccinated at an earlier date. So let's keep the masks on, remain socialy distant, get vaccinated and if we can do that for 3 more months until Memorial day, we can really start to open up and have a much more normal summer'.
You say something like that and most people are going to listen. And the people that don't are listening to you in anything you say. So continuing with the constant fear and negative is mind boggling. talk to any child physiologist and they will tell you just like when raising a kid, can always be negative, need to provide some hope here to give people some goals.
Hospitals report, they report every day. They are always open 24/7/365 regardless of about anything. they do this type of reporting on a myriad of things beyond covid so this is second nature to them. We already know the huge variations in reporting of fatality and daily positives by just looking at the chart where weekends are low and Tuesday/Wednesday is a spike, that isn't because more people get Covid and die on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, it is due to when things are being reported by labs and counties and states and all being rolled up. Look at the hospital chart and how smooth it is and then look at the fatality and daily positive chart and look at how it isn't.
Right on and good work Cletus. The distortions [I'll be kind and not call them lies has been mind boggling]
i am actually pretty excited to see next week's numbers. the same reporting anamoly i suspect was the reasoning for the small plateau/jump in daily positives and fatalities shoudl actually reverse back this week making this week look extra good. Look at the math making it simple...we were coming down 1 per week so 12, 11, 10, 9...etc. but due to the freeze, instead of being 9 it was undereported to a level of 8 as many didn't report in. so now this week comes along and should be an 8 but because it was underreported last week by 1 (8 instead of 9) this week actually is reported as 9. So instead of going 10, 9, 8...we went 10, 8, 9 (hence people who don't think called this a rise due to variants). Now guess what....this week should be a 7 and be compared to a an 8 of last week. But last week was actually a 9 because of the reporting anomaly. So this coming week is going to look like a bigger drop as it is being compared against a artificially high this past week.
Not sure if it will happen right away but definitely by the end of the week the number should get back to the regression line from two weeks ago.
Especially if they can get that vaccine rate up to 2 million plus a day like they did yesterday. Johnson & Johnson said that they should be able to get 40,000 doses out here in Maryland at the beginning of next week since they are in Baltimore. Assuming that is the average per state that means they have two million doses ready to go as of right now.
2.4M shots yesterday so total up to 72.80M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.65M. 75.5% of shots administered is the national average, 14.6% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 7.1% with double dose. So far, 48.4 million have received at least one dose. At least 23.7 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 96.43 M compared to yesterday 94.31M. 2.12 shots delivered yesterday so 21.2M doses delivered so far this week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.
64,320 positives reported yesterday compared to 71,716 week over week. 7-day rolling average is starting to drop again and is at 70,211
Fatality was 1554 compared to 1923 yesterday and 2645 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 1985.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 48,870 down from yesterday 51,116, compared to 58,222 week over week .
Yep definitely appears that the anomalies from last week with cases are from those two days where some of those States didn't report and that's caused upticks the next two days.
Kind of a plateau for now but would have to assume 2 million plus vaccinations a day and the weather improving that those will start to drop like a rock soon as well.
Sunday Morning Cletus Editorial:
Let me start off by saying, don't let the latest week of media (and unfortunately some of our national health leaders) fear porn over the "variants are coming" talking points get you down or upset. The brief rise can be completely explained by reporting anomalies due to the freeze in the South and literally is correcting itself just like I predicted yesterday and today. February was an incredible month in the fight against Covid and the pathway to defeating Covid is right in front of our eyes, the math and science says so.
How about a few numbers for you about the month of February, and after you read these, yeah that feeling in your brain and smile on your face is justified:
1. January 31 daily positive 7 day rolling average was 151,872, today it was 70,211 so we cut the daily positives by more than half.
2. January 31 daily fatality 7 day rolling average was 3,279, today it was 1985 so we cut the fatality rate by 60%.
3. Hospitalizations on January 31 were 97,561, today was 48,870 which is a 50% decrease.
4. On January 31 we had 50M doses available and 30M doses administered, by end of day tomorrow we will have 96M doses delivered and 75M doses administered.
5. J&J was approved so now have a third vaccine in place which is a one dose vaccine that can be stored in normal refrigerators for ease of administering.
6. Pfizer and Moderna came out in February saying they both have seen large production efficiencies and MOVED UP the timetable for delivery of vaccines. They have gone from 10M to 13M doses per week in February and will now move to 16M doses per week in March (which is enough for 2.3M doses per day alone) and by end of March should be at 20M doses per week.
7. J&J will ship 3.5M doses next week and although exactly what their production rate is unknown, they are saying they will have available 10M doses by end March and are still saying they should meet 100M doses by end July.
This past week 20M+ doses were delivered to the states (due to a poor week the week before due to the freeze). This coming first week of March should see another nearly 20M doses delivered with the increase in P/M doses per week to 16M plus the 3.5M+ of J&J vaccines. Which basically means that the issue of states not having enough vaccines is going to start to not be an issue anymore. We have seen single day all time high of vaccines administered yesterday of 2.4M doses and literally will need to average that many daily from here on out just to keep up with supply. We should be nearing 3M doses per day administered by the end of March. I expect 70M doses delivered in March which means that by end of March, 25+% of the population will have had at least one shot which means nearly all high risk people will be vaccinated. We will continue to see the fatality and hospitalizations go down and expect that fatality is under 1000 per day by end of March and hospitalizations will get to the point of being not even a metric that needs to be reported anymore as they will be at levels that don't stress the hospital system at all.
By end of March we will be approaching 50% of the population with antibodies (vaccine + had covid already + natural immunity). Which should start to have herd immunity effects driving down daily positives.
Looking ahead, assuming the states can keep up with the vaccines delivered and administer them at a ever increasing pace which will require nearly 4M per day come May, we will be at the point by end of May that 85% of the eligible vaccine population (note that 25% of the population is under 18 and not eligible except for either Pfiezer/Moderna eligible for 16 and 17 year olds) will have been vaccinated with at least one dose. Considering we know that about 10-20% of the population has said they won't take the vaccine, that basically means we are done by end of May except for second doses of the remainder occurring in June.
That is the real math people. By end of March the hospitalizations will be barely registered. By end of April the fatality curve will be extreme low values as all high risk people will have been vaccinated. By end of May, pretty much all eligible people in the USA who wants a vaccine will be able to get one.
As for the fear porn of 'variant's. Per doctor Fauci's own words.....the amount of hospitalizations and deaths for the Phase II and III participants of the three major vaccines (as they still track those people closely looking at antibodies and the like) is not 1% it is not 0.1% it is not even a handful. The answer to the question is ZERO. Yes, literally ZERO people who have been vaccinated in the Phase II and II trials have had severe Covid issues. And the variants are around and certainly those people have been exposed by Fauci's own words.
Let me start off by saying, don't let the latest week of media (and unfortunately some of our national health leaders) fear porn over the "variants are coming" talking points get you down or upset. The brief rise can be completely explained by reporting anomalies due to the freeze in the South and literally is correcting itself just like I predicted yesterday and today. February was an incredible month in the fight against Covid and the pathway to defeating Covid is right in front of our eyes, the math and science says so.
How about a few numbers for you about the month of February, and after you read these, yeah that feeling in your brain and smile on your face is justified:
1. January 31 daily positive 7 day rolling average was 151,872, today it was 70,211 so we cut the daily positives by more than half.
2. January 31 daily fatality 7 day rolling average was 3,279, today it was 1985 so we cut the fatality rate by 60%.
3. Hospitalizations on January 31 were 97,561, today was 48,870 which is a 50% decrease.
4. On January 31 we had 50M doses available and 30M doses administered, by end of day tomorrow we will have 96M doses delivered and 75M doses administered.
5. J&J was approved so now have a third vaccine in place which is a one dose vaccine that can be stored in normal refrigerators for ease of administering.
6. Pfizer and Moderna came out in February saying they both have seen large production efficiencies and MOVED UP the timetable for delivery of vaccines. They have gone from 10M to 13M doses per week in February and will now move to 16M doses per week in March (which is enough for 2.3M doses per day alone) and by end of March should be at 20M doses per week.
7. J&J will ship 3.5M doses next week and although exactly what their production rate is unknown, they are saying they will have available 10M doses by end March and are still saying they should meet 100M doses by end July.
This past week 20M+ doses were delivered to the states (due to a poor week the week before due to the freeze). This coming first week of March should see another nearly 20M doses delivered with the increase in P/M doses per week to 16M plus the 3.5M+ of J&J vaccines. Which basically means that the issue of states not having enough vaccines is going to start to not be an issue anymore. We have seen single day all time high of vaccines administered yesterday of 2.4M doses and literally will need to average that many daily from here on out just to keep up with supply. We should be nearing 3M doses per day administered by the end of March. I expect 70M doses delivered in March which means that by end of March, 25+% of the population will have had at least one shot which means nearly all high risk people will be vaccinated. We will continue to see the fatality and hospitalizations go down and expect that fatality is under 1000 per day by end of March and hospitalizations will get to the point of being not even a metric that needs to be reported anymore as they will be at levels that don't stress the hospital system at all.
By end of March we will be approaching 50% of the population with antibodies (vaccine + had covid already + natural immunity). Which should start to have herd immunity effects driving down daily positives.
Looking ahead, assuming the states can keep up with the vaccines delivered and administer them at a ever increasing pace which will require nearly 4M per day come May, we will be at the point by end of May that 85% of the eligible vaccine population (note that 25% of the population is under 18 and not eligible except for either Pfiezer/Moderna eligible for 16 and 17 year olds) will have been vaccinated with at least one dose. Considering we know that about 10-20% of the population has said they won't take the vaccine, that basically means we are done by end of May except for second doses of the remainder occurring in June.
That is the real math people. By end of March the hospitalizations will be barely registered. By end of April the fatality curve will be extreme low values as all high risk people will have been vaccinated. By end of May, pretty much all eligible people in the USA who wants a vaccine will be able to get one.
As for the fear porn of 'variant's. Per doctor Fauci's own words.....the amount of hospitalizations and deaths for the Phase II and III participants of the three major vaccines (as they still track those people closely looking at antibodies and the like) is not 1% it is not 0.1% it is not even a handful. The answer to the question is ZERO. Yes, literally ZERO people who have been vaccinated in the Phase II and II trials have had severe Covid issues. And the variants are around and certainly those people have been exposed by Fauci's own words.
Yup. We’re screwed. If anyone needs me, I’ll be sitting in a dark corner of my basement.
COVID-19 loves dark , humid corners that are poorly ventilated. You are screwed.
While clutching your rosary and saying a few Hail Faucis?
Thanks very much for the summation. Great stuff.
Aside from some posters engaging in intramural discussions, this is an excellent thread. Another reason to appreciate this board.
2.4M shots yesterday so total up to 75.23M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.74M. 78.0% of shots administered is the national average, 15.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 7.5% with double dose. So far, 49.8 million have received at least one dose. At least 24.8 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 96.43 M compared to yesterday 94.31M. 2.12 shots delivered yesterday so 21.2M doses delivered so far this week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.
49,433 positives reported yesterday compared to 58,433 week over week. 7-day rolling average is starting to drop again and is at 68,966
Fatality was 1285 compared to 1554 yesterday and 1237 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 1989.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 47,352 down from yesterday 48,870, compared to 6,159 week over week.
So end the month with 15% with at least one vaccination, nearly 100M vaccines delivered, 50M receiving at least one dose. Yesterday was the lowest single day positive since early October. Hospital total lowest since November 1.
Just got my second shot an hour ago. Now I can return to worrying about my other life threatening medical issues full time.
I'm being totally serious when I say that I rely on you more than any government official to set forth information that tells the true story about where we are headed with this matter. I appreciate the effort that you have made in providing us with these updates, whether good or bad.
Yep. I said earlier he should contact news networks and have them do this. What we all could do is copy and paste his updates into all social media like Facebook and Snapchat to get the word out. If a couple hundred of us do that daily it will get spread around quickly. We could make old Cletus11 a star!
Very upbeat numbers to bring month to a close... so from 2/1 - 2/28 the one month decreases of 7-day rolling for cases (-54%), fatalities (-35%), and hospitalizations (-48%).
Unfortunately there would be some groups who would try and disprove all of his data...
But yes, this is awesome, thanks again
Encouraging to say the least. With increased vaccine production coming and better weather, hopefully we will really kick this thing in the coming months.
I enjoy doing it, actually makes me feel that I am in control of my data review and don't have to rely on other people's talking points in the media. I listen to the facts they are giving me but do NOT listen to their opinions, I form my own.
Biggest positive I saw today was back to back 2.4M vaccines administered. For the doses that are supposed to come in March (16M weekly from Pfizer + Moderna plus whatever J&J does weekly) that simple math says that we have to be at 2.3M per day just to keep up with Pfizer+ Moderna so throw in another million plus per week from J&J and need to be at 2.5M just to keep up with what is coming in. And that number needs to grow to 3M-4M in April as weekly shipments continue to increase. So showing we can do that amount now is a good thing.
Today's daily positive was crazy low, be very, very interesting to see if that type of low number repeats itself this week as that would be another step change down adding much more credibility to the notion that we are entering into the start of herd immunity due to vaccinations + previous Covid + natural immunity.
What are the chances if later this week the numbers due hold that the talking media heads and the CDC director come out and admit they were wrong last week. Talking media heads I can understand, but how the CDC director came out with that statement is beyond me as either the CDC doesn't understand simple statistics and their own reporting structure (doubtful) or it was just an out and out lie to try and fear monger people into keeping their mask on. Either way, I don't like it.
Someone at the CDC just Friday said we weren't anywhere close to herd immunity and the variants would make it harder to get there.
Friday is actually the day the most cases have been reported.
In order, Monday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, Thursday, Friday
In order, Monday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, Thursday, Friday
yes, but week over week number was very low. That is what I look at for metrics to see how the 7 day will move. So we had a large week over week reduction, will that week over week reduction (which translates into the 7 day rolling average moving) continue this week. I think it will as we talked about the reporting anamoly of the freeze will make this week look good as last week was artificially high reporting.
