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OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates

1.8M shots on a Sunday is definitely a good sign. Encouraging as well that all numbers continue to trend downward fairly significantly.

yes, hopefully we should be getting to 2M+ per day the rest of the week as the supply this week should be substantial with this weeks and half of last week coming as well.

I would not be surprised to see the daily positive or fatality chart flat line this week (versus continuing to go down) as I think there was under reporting last week in many areas that will catch up this week.
 
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87% of the group accounting for fatalities in Ohio will have been inoculated by the end of March. If we get an 87% reduction in mortalities, can we finally open things up?

 
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I was scheduled to have my second shot tomorrow, Feb 23, with Lehigh Valley Health Network. They left a message on my phone saying that I need to reschedule due to a shortage in supply. While speaking with them later, I was told all available vaccine was to be distributed only to those that have not had a first shot. I was really bummed and begged to get my second shot because I was to leave for FL on Thursday, and they could not fit me in until March 1. Now I feel bad for arguing, because I thought I was trying to put myself ahead of someone that may benefit with some level of protection. Sorry for venting, and I'll leave after the first.
 
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I was scheduled to have my second shot tomorrow, Feb 23, with Lehigh Valley Health Network. They left a message on my phone saying that I need to reschedule due to a shortage in supply. While speaking with them later, I was told all available vaccine was to be distributed only to those that have not had a first shot. I was really bummed and begged to get my second shot because I was to leave for FL on Thursday, and they could not fit me in until March 1. Now I feel bad for arguing, because I thought I was trying to put myself ahead of someone that may benefit with some level of protection. Sorry for venting, and I'll leave after the first.
I've read several articles with experts suggesting we delay the second shot at the first one is 90% effective. So the math shows the more first shots we get in the better off we are than half of those being inoculated with both shots.
 
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Dr Monica Gandhi provides an insightful update with the current info and outlook of the existing vaccines. Dr. G is an MD, MPH, director of the UCSF AIDS clinic. So she has a world of insight on immune systems, and public health. She is following the biology of the existing knowledge and believes that due to the low mutational frequency of the virus, it will not require yearly shots like the flu. Also our T-cell immunity will provide a wide breadth of response to any variant that should arise. Four minute review of this at the 43:00 minute mark.
Knowing that a shot in the future may not be necessary may help persuade some of the fence sitters to get jabbed.
 
Dr Monica Gandhi provides an insightful update with the current info and outlook of the existing vaccines. Dr. G is an MD, MPH, director of the UCSF AIDS clinic. So she has a world of insight on immune systems, and public health. She is following the biology of the existing knowledge and believes that due to the low mutational frequency of the virus, it will not require yearly shots like the flu. Also our T-cell immunity will provide a wide breadth of response to any variant that should arise. Four minute review of this at the 43:00 minute mark.
Knowing that a shot in the future may not be necessary may help persuade some of the fence sitters to get jabbed.


We’re screwed. 😞
 
I was scheduled to have my second shot tomorrow, Feb 23, with Lehigh Valley Health Network. They left a message on my phone saying that I need to reschedule due to a shortage in supply. While speaking with them later, I was told all available vaccine was to be distributed only to those that have not had a first shot. I was really bummed and begged to get my second shot because I was to leave for FL on Thursday, and they could not fit me in until March 1. Now I feel bad for arguing, because I thought I was trying to put myself ahead of someone that may benefit with some level of protection. Sorry for venting, and I'll leave after the first.

this was in the news last week, PA screwed up basically. there was confusion surrounding how many vaccines to keep for second doses and how many to give out as first. apparently it was not clear in the directions and therefore some gave out too many first doses and therefore there are not enough second doses available until shipments come in the next couple of weeks and replenish supply. the decision was then made to delay second doses versus telling people they could not get a first dose. It was the correct decision to make in delaying the second doses as need more people with one, but just another black eye for PA which literally is now looking like the WORST rollout of vaccines of any state,.
 
this was in the news last week, PA screwed up basically. there was confusion surrounding how many vaccines to keep for second doses and how many to give out as first. apparently it was not clear in the directions and therefore some gave out too many first doses and therefore there are not enough second doses available until shipments come in the next couple of weeks and replenish supply. the decision was then made to delay second doses versus telling people they could not get a first dose. It was the correct decision to make in delaying the second doses as need more people with one, but just another black eye for PA which literally is now looking like the WORST rollout of vaccines of any state,.
As it turns out there was data released today suggesting that the first dose of Pfizer vaccine is testing out at 93% effectiveness. If indeed this data is accurate.....then there is not much urgency with distributing the 2nd dose. Most likely they will take a number of dose #2 injections and distribute them towards folks that have had zero shot #1. Essentially....they may make the calculation that they can get the shot into many more arms by having at least 93% protection vs. having a smaller number having two shots with the second not having a significant upside. I heard this info as I waited for a delayed Board meeting to start....but I believe that I am quite close to its theme. Perhaps someone here has print data on what I heard etc.
 
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1.8M shots yesterday so total up to 63.09M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.33M. 83.9% of shots administered is the national average, 13.1% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 5.7% with double dose. So far, 43.6 million have received at least one dose. At least 18.9 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 75.20M compared to yesterday 75.02M. 5.1M doses delivered this week. 9.96M doses delivered last week, 9.4M doses delivered week before.

57,198 positives reported yesterday compared to 66,777 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 69,002

Fatality was 1245 compared to 1907 yesterday and 1114 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 1983.

For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 56,159 down from yesterday 58,222, compared to 67,023 week over week .

1.1M shots yesterday so total up to 64.17M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.37M. 85.3% of shots administered is the national average, 13.3% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 5.9% with double dose. So far, 44.1 million have received at least one dose. At least 19.4 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 75.20M compared to yesterday 75.20M. No doses delivered yesterday which is strange. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M..

59,257 positives reported yesterday compared to 57,209 week over week. 7-day rolling average stays constant for first time in a while at to 69,528

Fatality was 1374 compared to 1245 yesterday and 939 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 20423.

For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 55,403 down from yesterday 56,159, compared to 65,455 week over week .

So this was the first day in a month where the week over week numbers for daily positives and fatality did not go down. These numbers were still low and very close to week over week, but slightly higher. I think due to under reporting last week due to the storms. Will be interesting to monitor this for the week and hopefully see things go back down week over by end of week so we are not signifying we are hitting a temporary plateau. Note the hospitalization chart continues to go down daily still and therefore the fatality chart should follow.
 
How long will immunity last with single dose vaccinations? Will those people, mostly 65 and older, need to be re-immunized later with the original double dosing regimen?
 
How long will immunity last with single dose vaccinations? Will those people, mostly 65 and older, need to be re-immunized later with the original double dosing regimen?

Everybody right now is going to get a double dose. Only J&J is a single dose and that is all it ever was. Anybody with Pfizer/Moderna will get both doses. Issue is that that second dose is just going to be delayed for some by a couple of weeks. There is no current plan to only use a single dose of Pfizer/Moderna.
 
I think we are a lot closer than people think to this almighty "herd" immunity.

I think there are a ton of people out there that have had it and never got tested.

The numbers where I live are minuscule now and believe me, it isn't because people are hiding away in fear. We have in person school, in person athletics, movies, places to eat,...in person college as well.

in early january when our family got it, there were 1,810 pending tests for the virus almost every day. Yesterday there were 16 pending tests.
 
I think we are a lot closer than people think to this almighty "herd" immunity.

I think there are a ton of people out there that have had it and never got tested.

The numbers where I live are minuscule now and believe me, it isn't because people are hiding away in fear. We have in person school, in person athletics, movies, places to eat,...in person college as well.

in early january when our family got it, there were 1,810 pending tests for the virus almost every day. Yesterday there were 16 pending tests.
The gov of Ohio stated, yesterday, the subgroup accounting for 87% of all deaths will have been vaccinated by the end of March. If you take 87% of the 500,000 deaths you get 65,000 deaths and you really are in the "normal flu" range. I believe Ohio is ahead of most states but June is certainly doable at the current vaccination rates.
 
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The gov of Ohio stated, yesterday, the subgroup accounting for 87% of all deaths will have been vaccinated by the end of March. If you take 87% of the 500,000 deaths you get 65,000 deaths and you really are in the "normal flu" range. I believe Ohio is ahead of most states but June is certainly doable at the current vaccination rates.

Actually you're in mild flu range since the 500k report deaths now span 2 flu seasons
 
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Hospitalizations are going way down. I expect by end of March those rates will be at the point that literally Covid patients in hospitals will not even be much on the register at all. Fatality is lagging by about 5-6 weeks so I think that fatality rate will be way down to a very low number by end of April. So governors have to start talking about opening up in early April and then the real push will become in early May as by then, the numbers should be way, way down.
 
Always good to remember that a covid hospitalization doesn't necessarily mean that person has covid (people under observation for covid, even if that results in a negative test, are considered covid patients), that the person's medical condition warrants hospitalization (ie, getting Remdesivir which can't be administered outpatient), or that the person came to the hospital for covid-like illness (people in the hospital for non-covid reasons then test positive for covid while already admitted.)
 
Always good to remember that a covid hospitalization doesn't necessarily mean that person has covid (people under observation for covid, even if that results in a negative test, are considered covid patients), that the person's medical condition warrants hospitalization (ie, getting Remdesivir which can't be administered outpatient), or that the person came to the hospital for covid-like illness (people in the hospital for non-covid reasons then test positive for covid while already admitted.)

yes, i think the bigger issue will come with how fatality deaths are coded as eventually that will become the major metric along with daily positives. Dying with Covid or because of Covid will eventually come to the surface.
 
The gov of Ohio stated, yesterday, the subgroup accounting for 87% of all deaths will have been vaccinated by the end of March. If you take 87% of the 500,000 deaths you get 65,000 deaths and you really are in the "normal flu" range. I believe Ohio is ahead of most states but June is certainly doable at the current vaccination rates.

If you eliminate the portion of the population that makes up 87% of the deaths from COVID, you also eliminated a high percentage of those who die from the flu. 65,000 flu deaths from the remaining population would be a startlingly scary flu season. You can’t purge the most vulnerable just to get your number to look normal when that number wouldn’t be at all normal without that group.
 
If you eliminate the portion of the population that makes up 87% of the deaths from COVID, you also eliminated a high percentage of those who die from the flu. 65,000 flu deaths from the remaining population would be a startlingly scary flu season. You can’t purge the most vulnerable just to get your number to look normal when that number wouldn’t be at all normal without that group.
yep...regardless, many of those people would have died from a cold or even an upper tract infection.

Be that as it may, the goal of the lockdown has always been to "lower the curve". The lockdown is not without its own set of problems (drugs, suicide, poverty, depression, abuse). As the ratio to infections and damages due to lockdowns change, we need to change. The goal cannot be 100% eradication of COVID deaths; we will never get that.
 
yep...regardless, many of those people would have died from a cold or even an upper tract infection.

Be that as it may, the goal of the lockdown has always been to "lower the curve". The lockdown is not without its own set of problems (drugs, suicide, poverty, depression, abuse). As the ratio to infections and damages due to lockdowns change, we need to change. The goal cannot be 100% eradication of COVID deaths; we will never get that.

Agreed. I just didn’t want people thinking COVID didn’t kill a bunch of people who would have easily survived flu season. I’m looking forward to a better version of normal by summer. My local family will have all been vaccinated by Easter. So we’re planning on having a much nicer Easter this year than last year.
 
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yes, i think the bigger issue will come with how fatality deaths are coded as eventually that will become the major metric along with daily positives. Dying with Covid or because of Covid will eventually come to the surface.
Interesting thought based on what we now know
.1. Due to high cycle PCR thresholds it seems there were MANY more positive tests than "actual"
2. then many people die with COVID rather than from COVID

So if lot's more folks tested ;positive than reality and if you were old and near death anyway and "tested" inaccurately positive it could have well overstated things.
YES THIS IS REAL and MUCH WORSE THAN FLU
 
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1.1M shots yesterday so total up to 64.17M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.37M. 85.3% of shots administered is the national average, 13.3% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 5.9% with double dose. So far, 44.1 million have received at least one dose. At least 19.4 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 75.20M compared to yesterday 75.20M. No doses delivered yesterday which is strange. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M..

59,257 positives reported yesterday compared to 57,209 week over week. 7-day rolling average stays constant for first time in a while at to 69,528

Fatality was 1374 compared to 1245 yesterday and 939 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 20423.

For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 55,403 down from yesterday 56,159, compared to 65,455 week over week .

So this was the first day in a month where the week over week numbers for daily positives and fatality did not go down. These numbers were still low and very close to week over week, but slightly higher. I think due to under reporting last week due to the storms. Will be interesting to monitor this for the week and hopefully see things go back down week over by end of week so we are not signifying we are hitting a temporary plateau. Note the hospitalization chart continues to go down daily still and therefore the fatality chart should follow.

0.855M shots yesterday so total up to 65.03M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.28M. 79.2% of shots administered is the national average, 13.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 6.0% with double dose. So far, 44.5 million have received at least one dose. At least 19.9 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 82.11M compared to yesterday 75.20M. 6.91 doses delivered yesterday. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

71,054 positives reported yesterday compared to 66,324 week over week. 7-day rolling average stays constant for first time in a while at to 70,255

Fatality was 2404 compared to 1374 yesterday and 1811 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2126.

For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 55,058 down from yesterday 55,403, compared to 64,533 week over week .

So not a good day yesterday with two consecutive days of week over week daily positives and fatalities rising. I hope that is a reporting anamoly due to late reporting because of weather and not an uptick somehow. Horrible day yesterday on the vaccine front with less than a million shots. At least it appears 6M+ doses was delivered so should be a big day today. Still not sure why it took so long to get those vaccines out there as they were reporting late last week where they were stuck. Also don't understand the 13.5M announced as what is going out this week as there was 6M last week announced not delivered so we were at 10M so at a minumum should be 16M delivered this week and they were talking about how that 10M was supposed to become 13M so 13M + 6M is 19M delivered this week. So we will see how many actually get delivered but I fear something funky is going on. Pfizer and Moderna are continuing to put in the press that they have huge volume ready to go and yet we don't see it being delivered. So based on what I read, it appears now the federal government has vaccines available to deliver but is not delivery them to the states and the question I am pondering is why. We will see this week. If we get 19M+ shots delivered this week than no issues. If we only get 13M shots this week delivered than we have a major problem.
 
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Interesting thought based on what we now know
.1. Due to high cycle PCR thresholds it seems there were MANY more positive tests than "actual"
2. then many people die with COVID rather than from COVID

So if lot's more folks tested ;positive than reality and if you were old and near death anyway and "tested" inaccurately positive it could have well overstated things.
YES THIS IS REAL and MUCH WORSE THAN FLU

I also don't know if the question was ever answered if they are double accounting positive tests. For instance, I think I have Covid and go get a test that is positive. I think go back a day later to test again to confirm it. I then go back a week later to see if I test negative so can go back to work and not quarantine and test positive. I think go back a week after that and finally test negative. Is that getting accounted for 3 positives or one positive? Never read anything that said either way.
 
They report the number of tests that are positive, so yes, the numbers add. At the end of the day it probably averages out and the trend is somewhat accurate.

As far as deliveries go, imagine being the Project Manager in charge of this project at say Pfizer. Would you really tell your customers (governments with orders on the books) exactly what your production capabilities are? You'd have to be crazy. Every project runs into hiccups. As the Project Manager you can either be the hero or the goat.

Not sure what you are talking about with Pfizer and PM. Pfizer is all over the news saying exactly what their production capacity is and is going to and what targets they plan on hitting. Even yesterday they talked about how many vaccines per week they should be able to deliver by end of March. Moderna is not that open but is saying what they are doing by end of May and end of July and giving updates on where they are saying they definitely meet those targets and most likely beat them. J&J has come out and said they only have 3M doses on hand and have had issues that they are trying to solve.
 
Interesting thought based on what we now know
.1. Due to high cycle PCR thresholds it seems there were MANY more positive tests than "actual"
2. then many people die with COVID rather than from COVID

So if lot's more folks tested ;positive than reality and if you were old and near death anyway and "tested" inaccurately positive it could have well overstated things.
YES THIS IS REAL and MUCH WORSE THAN FLU


Remember a covid death is a person dying within 30 days of testing positive. So even if someone truly had covid, they may well have recovered from that and died from some other old age malady but still get registered as a covid death.

Then there are people who died with no positive test, then posthumously were deemed a covid death if they had covid symptoms.

So there's a huge portion of those covid death who would have died even w/o covid
 
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Not sure what you are talking about with Pfizer and PM. Pfizer is all over the news saying exactly what their production capacity is and is going to and what targets they plan on hitting. Even yesterday they talked about how many vaccines per week they should be able to deliver by end of March. Moderna is not that open but is saying what they are doing by end of May and end of July and giving updates on where they are saying they definitely meet those targets and most likely beat them. J&J has come out and said they only have 3M doses on hand and have had issues that they are trying to solve.
Of course the PM is going to answer the questions, just not exactly truthfully. He has to allow for the unknown stoppages or he'll get killed by everyone concerned. He has the choice of being the hero (beating production schedules) or the goat (not meeting production schedules). Again, all projects start out like a snake swallowing a rat...It's lumpy at first and then smoothes out. You'll see the production in the coming weeks start to blow the lid off all projections that have been given.

The Moderna PM has obviously taken a different approach...Hide in the bunker until the crowd dissipates. This way he can't be a goat since he never made what appears to be firm commitments, however he'll surely be a hero once his production starts to chug along. I personally never liked this approach, and the customers hate this approach.
 
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So not a good day yesterday with two consecutive days of week over week daily positives and fatalities rising. I hope that is a reporting anamoly due to late reporting because of weather and not an uptick somehow.

Probably a Super Bowl Party spike. Hopefully a small one since it was a single day event unlike the holiday season.
 
Hospitalizations are going way down. I expect by end of March those rates will be at the point that literally Covid patients in hospitals will not even be much on the register at all. Fatality is lagging by about 5-6 weeks so I think that fatality rate will be way down to a very low number by end of April. So governors have to start talking about opening up in early April and then the real push will become in early May as by then, the numbers should be way, way down.


I am troubled by your optimism.
 
0.855M shots yesterday so total up to 65.03M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.28M. 79.2% of shots administered is the national average, 13.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 6.0% with double dose. So far, 44.5 million have received at least one dose. At least 19.9 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 82.11M compared to yesterday 75.20M. 6.91 doses delivered yesterday. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

71,054 positives reported yesterday compared to 66,324 week over week. 7-day rolling average stays constant for first time in a while at to 70,255

Fatality was 2404 compared to 1374 yesterday and 1811 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2126.

For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 55,058 down from yesterday 55,403, compared to 64,533 week over week .

So not a good day yesterday with two consecutive days of week over week daily positives and fatalities rising. I hope that is a reporting anamoly due to late reporting because of weather and not an uptick somehow. Horrible day yesterday on the vaccine front with less than a million shots. At least it appears 6M+ doses was delivered so should be a big day today. Still not sure why it took so long to get those vaccines out there as they were reporting late last week where they were stuck. Also don't understand the 13.5M announced as what is going out this week as there was 6M last week announced not delivered so we were at 10M so at a minumum should be 16M delivered this week and they were talking about how that 10M was supposed to become 13M so 13M + 6M is 19M delivered this week. So we will see how many actually get delivered but I fear something funky is going on. Pfizer and Moderna are continuing to put in the press that they have huge volume ready to go and yet we don't see it being delivered. So based on what I read, it appears now the federal government has vaccines available to deliver but is not delivery them to the states and the question I am pondering is why. We will see this week. If we get 19M+ shots delivered this week than no issues. If we only get 13M shots this week delivered than we have a major problem.
do you happen to know if it is specific state with increases in cases/fatalities? wondering if a.) the weather from last week if playing a part and b.) travel, etc are a cause
 
They report the number of tests that are positive, so yes, the numbers add. At the end of the day it probably averages out and the trend is somewhat accurate.

As far as deliveries go, imagine being the Project Manager in charge of this project at say Pfizer. Would you really tell your customers (governments with orders on the books) exactly what your production capabilities are? You'd have to be crazy. Every project runs into hiccups. As the Project Manager you can either be the hero or the goat.

As a long-time PM, you learn quickly to under-commit and over-deliver.
 
Not sure what you are talking about with Pfizer and PM. Pfizer is all over the news saying exactly what their production capacity is and is going to and what targets they plan on hitting. Even yesterday they talked about how many vaccines per week they should be able to deliver by end of March. Moderna is not that open but is saying what they are doing by end of May and end of July and giving updates on where they are saying they definitely meet those targets and most likely beat them. J&J has come out and said they only have 3M doses on hand and have had issues that they are trying to solve.
I believe the latest J&J has said they should deliver 20 million doses by end of March.
J&J Vaccine
 
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