Italy still on figurative fire (USA in trouble)

[michnittlion]

Plenty according to the estimates from actual experts, but the bulk are yet to come.

Can you provide a link to these experts?

What people simply don't want to acknowledge is this: community spread was occurring in America as early as January. And once that gets going, especially with something like this with a real high Reproduction number (around 3), the horse is out of the barn.

And that would have occurred even if we had 330,000,000 tests --- one for every American --- available then.

The world lost its chance at containment because of CHINA. They weren't transparent, they didn't tell the truth, they tried to keep things secret. If we're going to blame COVID American deaths on anyone, I'm blaming them. Not President Trump (a President I admittedly do not like).

 

[4rosco]

Looks like the number of daily cases in Italy increased today. I guess they haven't flattened the curve yet.
Climbed to 6100 today from 5200 on Wednesday.

 

[4rosco]

Can you provide a link to these experts?

What people simply don't want to acknowledge is this: community spread was occurring in America as early as January. And once that gets going, especially with something like this with a real high Reproduction number (around 3), the horse is out of the barn.

And that would have occurred even if we had 330,000,000 tests --- one for every American --- available then.

The world lost its chance at containment because of CHINA. They weren't transparent, they didn't tell the truth, they tried to keep things secret. If we're going to blame COVID American deaths on anyone, I'm blaming them. Not President Trump (a President I admittedly do not like).

Even if we had 330M test kits available we don't nor does any other country have the ability to administer and process all of those tests in a timely manner.

 

[demlion]

Can you provide a link to these experts?

What people simply don't want to acknowledge is this: community spread was occurring in America as early as January. And once that gets going, especially with something like this with a real high Reproduction number (around 3), the horse is out of the barn.

And that would have occurred even if we had 330,000,000 tests --- one for every American --- available then.

The world lost its chance at containment because of CHINA. They weren't transparent, they didn't tell the truth, they tried to keep things secret. If we're going to blame COVID American deaths on anyone, I'm blaming them. Not President Trump (a President I admittedly do not like).

South Korea contained it despite the Chinese.

 

[michnittlion]

Looks like the number of daily cases in Italy increased today. I guess they haven't flattened the curve yet.
Climbed to 6100 today from 5200 on Wednesday.

True, it is high today - higher than yesterday.

However, if you look at a metric that tracks "new cases today versus new cases 7 days ago", Italy's ratio today was 1.16. 6153 divided by 5322.

As to why that is perhaps meaningful, that 1.16 number is the lowest ratio for any of the 26 days in March. Yesterday's 1.25 number is the 2nd lowest ratio for any of the 26 days in March. And the 3 days before that had ratios from 1.39 to 1.55, those were the 3rd through 5th lowest ratios for any of the 26 days in March.

I DO think the curve is "flatten-ing" ... it takes time.

 

[jwarigaku]

Demlion,

let’s agree on one thing, COVID-19 does not directly kill the patient(the rarity could potentially exist but in 6sigmas it would be the outlier). The disease creates an environment within the host for it to become a perfect incubator because the virus has only two desires, live and reproduce(think of it as a 16-25 year old male). The unfortunate truth is the patients that are dying are a result of their immune system response or lack of response which intern cause the other body systems to fail and ultimately death.

Now your claim about prevention through patient testing, or cure through patient testing; yes you can protect the more fragile if all parties are compliant but that’s a big if and honestly can only be ascertained in a BSL2 or better containment room.

Regarding testing, we need granularity in the statistical reporting, how many infected vs tested, how many of those infected hospitalized for a day, 3 days, week etc. did they require cannulated oxygen, mask, or full intubation and how long of each was required. What were the risk behaviors or factors associated with each pool of statistical patients?

Are you starting to get the idea of the complexity? Testing does not give you a death or survival path. Look at Japan, they’ve run <25,000 tests yet claim less then 50(last a saw) but certainly less than 100 deaths in a population roughly the size of the US. The Philippines is the same story with deeply contrasting lifestyles from Japan.

Do you believe we should use drugs for off label purposes, or plasma antigen therapy?

Plenty according to the estimates from actual experts, but the bulk are yet to come.

 

[crazytoadie]

USA deaths from coronovirus have now exceeded 1,000 (1,054 on the tracker I've used)

One comparison -- USA deaths attributed to flu season 2017-18 -- 61,000

It might not be obvious to others, but you picked the worst year for flu in the last decade. Worse yet, you compared 1 years worth of deaths to one month (first coronavirus death on March 1). While that is “data” it is an inaccurate and unfair comparison whether intentional or not.

In the last decade, flu deaths have been estimated from 12,000 to 61,000, with an average of 38,000 in a year. So the comparison would be 1,000 coronavirus deaths per month to 3,333 flu deaths per month. That would still get your point across. I hope your point remains true in the months to come.

 

[michnittlion]

South Korea contained it despite the Chinese.

South Korea also had a bit of a unique circumstance --- nearly 75% of their cases could be linked to one Church.

Asian countries which are fairly well-containing this (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) already had a culture where citizens regularly wear masks. Masks are important, IMO, for reducing the spread.

So, they had a couple advantages over us, or any European country. COVID-19 is all over the place in America right now, but we're no different than Western Europe in that regard either.

 

[jwarigaku]

Michnittlion,

please point out one thing on the mask issue...the wearing of MOST masks does NOT prevent you from getting a Virus(COVID-19 or others) but rather prevents you from ejecting droplets to infect others. If you want to stop community spread and open things back up we may all have to mask up with basic paper or washable fashion masks. Already have mine made with Penn State football fabric.

South Korea also had a bit of a unique circumstance --- nearly 75% of their cases could be linked to one Church.

Asian countries which are fairly well-containing this (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) already had a culture where citizens regularly wear masks. Masks are important, IMO, for reducing the spread.

So, they had a couple advantages over us, or any European country. COVID-19 is all over the place in America right now, but we're no different than Western Europe in that regard either.

 

[tgar]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-intl-hnk/index.html

Private sector and government working together can deliver impressive results.

 

[demlion]

Demlion,

let’s agree on one thing, COVID-19 does not directly kill the patient(the rarity could potentially exist but in 6sigmas it would be the outlier). The disease creates an environment within the host for it to become a perfect incubator because the virus has only two desires, live and reproduce(think of it as a 16-25 year old male). The unfortunate truth is the patients that are dying are a result of their immune system response or lack of response which intern cause the other body systems to fail and ultimately death.

Now your claim about prevention through patient testing, or cure through patient testing; yes you can protect the more fragile if all parties are compliant but that’s a big if and honestly can only be ascertained in a BSL2 or better containment room.

Regarding testing, we need granularity in the statistical reporting, how many infected vs tested, how many of those infected hospitalized for a day, 3 days, week etc. did they require cannulated oxygen, mask, or full intubation and how long of each was required. What were the risk behaviors or factors associated with each pool of statistical patients?

Are you starting to get the idea of the complexity? Testing does not give you a death or survival path. Look at Japan, they’ve run <25,000 tests yet claim less then 50(last a saw) but certainly less than 100 deaths in a population roughly the size of the US. The Philippines is the same story with deeply contrasting lifestyles from Japan.

Do you believe we should use drugs for off label purposes, or plasma antigen therapy?

You lost me when you said Japan (127 million) is roughly the same population as the US (330 MIL.]

 

[jwarigaku]

Demlion,

Yes I was incorrect on total population, however, the rest holds. <25,000 tests country wide with <3,000 in Tokyo.

You lost me when you said Japan (127 million) is roughly the same population as the US (330 MIL.]

 

[OaktonDave]

Demlion,

I was just reporting numbers no political lean either way. New York’s infection rate of people tested is much higher than California’s each with a good statistical number of tests run. New York’s latest percentage is north of 30% of those tested while Cali is at 3.8%. New York has run about double the tests 120k vs 66k.

Your NBC article about South Korea had and interesting fact that they are limiting testing of the public by money. You need a Dr referral to get the test for free, all others can get the test but without the Dr referral it’s $142 for the test.

Korea's testing was and is targeted based on potential exposure and association with those who may have been exposed. There is no medical basis for testing someone who has had no known exposure and has no symptoms, even if they are in the demographics that are higher risk. The call gets tougher in places where people live in close quarters where the question of exposure much harder to determine. I have no shortage of people in the most vulnerable demographics in my extended family, but I also have no shortage of HCPs in my extended family. None of those HCPs who watch over my vulnerable family members like hawks is telling the vulnerable ones they need to get tested nor are they raising heXX about availability/non-availability of testing. The best medical advice in South Korea and the United States if you are at high risk is to self quarantine.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Italy still drowning here. Another 712 deaths and their recovery to death ratio is still alarming. Now that we are testing more than just the half-dead our recovery ratio is getting way better.
Also, Italy’s number of serious cases is still not really waning

 

[4rosco]

Italy still drowning here. Another 712 deaths and their recovery to death ratio is still alarming. Now that we are testing more than just the half-dead our recovery ratio is getting way better.
Also, Italy’s number of serious cases is still not really waning

I think you will start to see the recovery rate really jump in the next few days. They say you have to be symptom free for 14 days to be considered recovered.

 

[michnittlion]

Michnittlion,

please point out one thing on the mask issue...the wearing of MOST masks does NOT prevent you from getting a Virus(COVID-19 or others) but rather prevents you from ejecting droplets to infect others. If you want to stop community spread and open things back up we may all have to mask up with basic paper or washable fashion masks. Already have mine made with Penn State football fabric.

Good post - point taken.

I'm super-alarmed at how we are so willing to literally shut down society, but not emphasize key points such as (1) wash your damn hands, a lot, and (2) wear a mask if you can.

Those elements in themselves will reduce the reproduction number of this virus. And that's a whole lot simpler than the current approach of "government will be the solution." (demlion is of course a huge proponent of the latter)

 

[cjrugger]

You lost me when you said Japan (127 million) is roughly the same population as the US (330 MIL.]

That was paragraph 4 of 5. Good job ignoring everything before it that didn’t fit with your stupid idea

 

[royboy]

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning ...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

 

[interrobang]

I would expect to see more downgrades like that

 

[demlion]

That was paragraph 4 of 5. Good job ignoring everything before it that didn’t fit with your stupid idea

Lol. Gfy

 

[jwarigaku]

Demlion,

I have certainly acknowledged that my population equivalency was incorrect. That said I’m interested in your thoughts on my other points throughout this thread. Looking forward to a point by point review.

You lost me when you said Japan (127 million) is roughly the same population as the US (330 MIL.]

 

[odshowtime]

I don't know why some of you can't keep your damn mouths shut about politics but I want you to know neither your opinion nor your desire to share it is worth annoying everyone else. Just STFU about it! I have very strong thoughts about it but it's not that hard to keep them to myself.

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

 

[demlion]

Demlion,

I have certainly acknowledged that my population equivalency was incorrect. That said I’m interested in your thoughts on my other points throughout this thread. Looking forward to a point by point review.

How will we get the "granularity" you say we need without a lot of data AND a lot of contact tracking and isolation? We are not even attempting that, but the places that have succeeded at quelling this so far ALL did it.

You cannot cure this so far as I know, but S. Korea proved you can flatten the curve. You really think that is happening in the US as a whole? That we are going to avoid overloaded hospitals?

 

[PennStateNate]

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

If you want to stop community spread and open things back up we may all have to mask up with basic paper or washable fashion masks. Already have mine made with Penn State football fabric.

To each their own. We all have our individual tastes. I go more for functionality than sporting my team's colors...

 

[BBrown]

My apologies. I didn't intend to post that. It was left over from a post that a started to make a day or so ago but when I double checked the math, I found that you were right, so I aborted the post (it's also the reason that it's so short). But when I went to specify the death total for the cruise ship, that post was automatically tacked on to the back of my old aborted post which I just didn't notice. It's a glitch in the system that I usually catch but didn't this time. Sorry. .

I've done the same thing. Went to respond to a post typed it out and then instead of deleting it just hit the back button. Then replied to another post in the same thread and ended up posting what I had originally written along with the new post.. Duhhh. LOL.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

How will we get the "granularity" you say we need without a lot of data AND a lot of contact tracking and isolation? We are not even attempting that, but the places that have succeeded at quelling this so far ALL did it.

You cannot cure this so far as I know, but S. Korea proved you can flatten the curve. You really think that is happening in the US as a whole? That we are going to avoid overloaded hospitals?

South Korea is 99 times smaller than the United States. It has a population of around 52,000,000 compared to our 331,000,000. It Is surrounded by water with the exception of one border which is a heavily fortified and militarily guarded DMZ zone. I won’t even go into the societal and structural differences. Forget about apples and oranges it’s like comparing a watermelon to a grape. Your constant testing memes serve no useful purpose. We are where we are and need to pull together and forge ahead and attack the problem at hand.

 

[BBrown]

This is how S. Korea flattened its curve. We had the same notice as them How come it took us so long?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve-n1167376

And frankly we aren't flattening it enough. We need to do a real lock down and not this half assed stuff I'm seeing. Its like a death by 1000 cuts.
You got or at least had busses going in and out of NY. Spring Break party goers in one of the most vulnerable states, elderly wise. New Orleans is now starting to feel the brunt of Mardi Gras. Parts of FLA will soon be following NYC.

 

[demlion]

South Korea is 99 times smaller than the United States. It has a population of around 52,000,000 compared to our 331,000,000. It Is surrounded by water with the exception of one border which is a heavily fortified and militarily guarded DMZ zone. I won’t even go into the societal and structural differences. Forget about apples and oranges it’s like comparing a watermelon to a grape. Your constant testing memes serve no useful purpose. We are where we are and half to pull together and forge ahead and attack the problem at hand.

You will never find something you refuse to look for.

So, S.Korea is way smaller. Ok. Makes it HARDER to isolate, but they did. Where are the big #s? NY, New Orleans, other cities, where people are crowded together, just like in S. Korea.

You can pretend it does not matter, but they proved it does.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Even if we had 330M test kits available we don't nor does any other country have the ability to administer and process all of those tests in a timely manner.

Can't process the ones we have done in a timely manner. i know a guy going on 10 days waiting for his result.

 

[michnittlion]

Can't process the ones we have done in a timely manner. i know a guy going on 10 days waiting for his result.

Yeah, those stories aren't isolated either.

These tests (1) have to be sent to some lab, (2) which is often 1000 miles away, (3) and maybe there's an airplane that can get it there or not, (4) and then it has to be processed at a lab which is getting these shipments at all the time, et cetera.

At this point, if your friend DID have the virus, he's basically 75% of the way through the 14-day recovery period anyway.

 

[DingerzForDaze]

South Korea is 99 times smaller than the United States. It has a population of around 52,000,000 compared to our 331,000,000. It Is surrounded by water with the exception of one border which is a heavily fortified and militarily guarded DMZ zone. I won’t even go into the societal and structural differences. Forget about apples and oranges it’s like comparing a watermelon to a grape. Your constant testing memes serve no useful purpose. We are where we are and need to pull together and forge ahead and attack the problem at hand.

A country that is only 1/6 the population size while being 1/99 the geographic size means that country has far greater population density. Greater population density means its far easier to spread a virus. So if it's a watermelon to a grape, it's like having 60 pennies on the watermelon and having 10 pennies on the grape, and trying to get them to not touch. Bad analogy.

 

[demlion]

Yeah, those stories aren't isolated either.

These tests (1) have to be sent to some lab, (2) which is often 1000 miles away, (3) and maybe there's an airplane that can get it there or not, (4) and then it has to be processed at a lab which is getting these shipments at all the time, et cetera.

At this point, if your friend DID have the virus, he's basically 75% of the way through the 14-day recovery period anyway.

But that is the fault of the Chinese, too, right?

 

[demlion]

And frankly we aren't flattening it enough. We need to do a real lock down and not this half assed stuff I'm seeing. Its like a death by 1000 cuts.
You got or at least had busses going in and out of NY. Spring Break party goers in one of the most vulnerable states, elderly wise. New Orleans is now starting to feel the brunt of Mardi Gras. Parts of FLA will soon be following NYC.

yep, but testing and socially isolating the positives is not required. Since we blew it off at the beginning it no longer matters.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

A country that is only 1/6 the population size while being 1/99 the geographic size means that country has far greater population density. Greater population density means its far easier to spread a virus. So if it's a watermelon to a grape, it's like having 60 pennies on the watermelon and having 10 pennies on the grape, and trying to get them to not touch. Bad analogy.

No it’s not. It’s much easier to shut or slow down a smaller geographical area that only has one border guarded by the military, artillery etc. with less airports less shipping less people and a totally different political structure.

 

[michnittlion]

But that is the fault of the Chinese, too, right?

Again, the Chinese are THE ROOT CAUSE of the current world crisis.

China (1) didn't more heavily regulate their wet markets. China (2) had a documented case of COVID-19 on 17-November. China (3) decided not to tell the WHO about any of this until 31-December.

All those are China's fault. China is THE ROOT CAUSE of everything that has followed.

---------------

Anyway. Pivoting back to my original post, all those issues as regards "10 days to get a test result" would still be an issue if we had had 330,000,000 tests ready back in mid-February.

I honestly don't think you have a good grasp of "real world logistics" - it's impossible to ramp up from literally nothing to a well-oiled functioning machine in the matter of weeks.

Your lack of logistics knowledge isn't really your fault. It's just a function of being a lawyer for your whole life. You deal more in the theoretical than the actual. Folks who work in fields like manufacturing, or operations management, or supply chain management or military planning know that it's VERY hard and it takes TIME to get the machine up and running.

There's a reason that the ventilator makers are now getting help from Ford and GM in ramping up production. Because those guys are the experts in getting the machine up and running. Ventilator makers (nothing against them, but that's a pretty steady-state business in normal times) and lawyers aren't the experts.

Even South Korea isn't some well-oiled functioning machine - as much as I acknowledge the good work they have done there, they (1) had some structural advantages to get there (most particularly, experience from SARS in 2003), and (2) their number of new cases per day hasn't really gone to zero, it's simply steadied out (it's near 100/day of late).

 

[MJG-90]

I don’t want to make this political, just trying to make an analogy. One reason it’s difficult to shut everything down is the same reason we can’t collect guns from everyone — we simply don’t have the personnel necessary to enforce a shutdown just like we don’t have the personnel necessary to protect everyone if civilians were disarmed. (Please don’t respond with gun control talk. This is just an analogy. Stick to CV talk). We could post national guardsmen on corners with automatic weapons. Would that do the trick? I don’t think we have enough of those even if every single GI was activated. So we’ll all just have to be more patient as we wait out all the idiots who can’t follow instructions.

 

[Waste Management Consultant]

Very stimulating discussion gentlemen. However, I would prefer the stimulation of another Midnighter poll.

 

[MJG-90]

There's a reason that the ventilator makers are now getting help from Ford and GM in ramping up production. Because those guys know how to get the machine up and running. Ventilator makers (nothing against them, but that's a pretty steady-state business in normal times) and lawyers don't.

As a big hockey fan, I love that Bauer is making medical face shields now.