Italy still on figurative fire (USA in trouble)

[Chickenman Testa]

I’ve been focusing on them and they always release daily figures late, but just announced their daily numbers:

6557 new cases
793 dead

Those numbers are worse than China at its peak. Hopefully, just the lag effect from incubation before the stricter lockdown, but still.

I expect our numbers to get real bad given the stupidity around St Patrick’s day in many places and because our regional lockdowns only just started.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

I’ve been focusing on them and they always release daily figures late, but just announced their daily numbers:

6557 new cases
793 dead

Those numbers are worse than China at its peak. Hopefully, just the lag effect from incubation before the stricter lockdown, but still.

I expect our numbers to get real bad given the stupidity around St Patrick’s day in many places and because our regional lockdowns only just started.

I sense the numbers MAY be higher because the Italian population is MUCH older? Just my guess / perception.....

 

[BobPSU92]

I sense the numbers MAY be higher because the Italian population is MUCH older? Just my guess / perception.....

Plus they all smoke like chimneys.

For f*ck’s sake, FOOTBALL. .

 

[interrobang]

Older, more health problems, more cultural need to have large groups together with mandatory close contact.

That said, there has to be something more going on in Italy.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Older, more health problems, more cultural need to have large groups together with mandatory close contact.

That said, there has to be something more going on in Italy.

Yeah, saw a story where it took quite a bit to stop Italians and Spaniards for traditional kiss on the cheek greetings.

 

[jabba2]

Older, more health problems, more cultural need to have large groups together with mandatory close contact.

That said, there has to be something more going on in Italy.

Probably just a very lax attitude outside of the authorities press conferences, and life went on as usual until it got real bad. I hope things dont get as bad as they are now in Italy, but the prevailing wisdom right now is everyone is going to catch this.

 

[razpsu]

Hugging everyone from China sure didn’t help.
They should have closed their travel to and from China much faster than they did.

 

[LionDeNittany]

I sense the numbers MAY be higher because the Italian population is MUCH older? Just my guess / perception.....

There's a stat that 99% of the deaths in Italy were those with pre conditions. One of those pre conditions was hyper tension however.

That being said, and as I've said before, the issue isn't the death rate... which IMO will be rather low. It's the speed of new cases. Could end up with a death rate of .1% but if the entire world got it at once it would be overwhelming.

And the entire world seems to be getting it.

That's what makes it very dangerous.

LdN

 

[LionJim]

As I said earlier, wait until it hits Venezuela. Their hospitals and general health care systems are already broken. It's going to be really bad down there. And everyone will be watching from the sidelines because they’re going to be preoccupied with their own problems.

 

[WestSideLion]

There's a stat that 99% of the deaths in Italy were those with pre conditions. One of those pre conditions was hyper tension however.

That being said, and as I've said before, the issue isn't the death rate... which IMO will be rather low. It's the speed of new cases. Could end up with a death rate of .1% but if the entire world got it at once it would be overwhelming.

And the entire world seems to be getting it.

That's what makes it very dangerous.

LdN

This will wind up around 1% and change for first world nations. That is a huge number of fatalities in large populations. Think 3-5 million in the US in a 1-2 year span if everyone got infected. It’s unfathomable.

 

[Cletus11]

i thought i read where Italy has a sizable amount of business in northern italy that were purchased by the chinese and those factories employ a lot of chinese labor, specifically from Wuhan, that 'commute' to italy with a lot of rotation of workers. and that is why they think it hit so hard as you had a huge chinese workforce that had come from china that infected

 

[PSU8591]

US may be much Worse. The young are not concerned I mean 18-23
Lets see what happens!!

 

[interrobang]

As I said earlier, wait until it hits Venezuela. Their hospitals and general health care systems are already broken. It's going to be really bad down there. And everyone will be watching from the sidelines because they’re going to be preoccupied with their own problems.

Who's traveling TO Venezuela though?

 

[LionJim]

Who's traveling TO Venezuela though?

It’s already there, see the Fox News link. Nature doesn’t give a damn about borders. It’s going to be a shitshow.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...nourished-bodies-as-coronavirus-hits-home.amp

 

[Chickenman Testa]

US may be much Worse. The young are not concerned I mean 18-23
Lets see what happens!!

Yeah. What helps us is that we’re way more spread out, and much younger on average, but I think NYC, other dense cities and a lot of Florida are in for it.

 

[tboyer]

Wow that is awful. A few days ago the deaths flattenened out from the day before (at about 340) and there was a brief hope that they might have crested. But then the numbers exploded the rest of the week. What is happening in Italy is like 1918, and is probably the best predictor of what is going to happen here despite the lockdowns.

DO NOT assume that somehow the Italians are magically vulnerable in ways that Americans aren't.

Obesity and diabetetes are a big risk factor. Well obesity and diabetes in northern Italy is much less than the US. You see very few fat people in northern Italy, nothing like here. They do smoke but not like the French and not that much more than the 20% who smoke in the US.

I can see why it spread so fast in Italy because their lifestyle is incredibly social -- Italians are ALWAYS with groups of people.

But I can't see why the disease would be any more fatal in Italy than here. If anything the risk factors are higher here.

One early number that is incredibly scary is that half of the serious cases in New York are people under 50. It's early and that may change, but it changes everything for us if the entire American population is vulnerable, not just elderly..

I’ve been focusing on them and they always release daily figures late, but just announced their daily numbers:

6557 new cases
793 dead

Those numbers are worse than China at its peak. Hopefully, just the lag effect from incubation before the stricter lockdown, but still.

I expect our numbers to get real bad given the stupidity around St Patrick’s day in many places and because our regional lockdowns only just started.

 

[interrobang]

Obesity and diabetetes are a big risk factor. Well obesity and diabetes in northern Italy is much less than the US. You see very few fat people in northern Italy, nothing like here. They do smoke but not like the French and not that much more than the 20% who smoke in the US.

Italy has a lot more old people which has been discussed many times. Italy may not smoke as much now, but the old people affected were chimneys in decades past.

 

[michnittlion]

This will wind up around 1% and change for first world nations. That is a huge number of fatalities in large populations. Think 3-5 million in the US in a 1-2 year span if everyone got infected. It’s unfathomable.

I seriously doubt it ends up as "1% and change."

Latest academic studies from China estimate the mortality rate was 0.9-2.1% among those who were confirmed to have the virus AND showed symptoms of the virus.

That, of course, excludes 2 potentially sizable population groups:

1) People who had the virus, had symptoms, but they were mild and they never got tested (never became a confirmed case).

2) People who had the virus but were asymptomatic throughout (these would also never become a confirmed case).

Now, I don't know the size of those groups. But I'll make some guesses, which I'd argue are conservative guesses:

1) Group 1 is twice as large as confirmed cases. E.g., we have a 2:1 ratio between "actual cases" and "confirmed cases."

2) Group 2 - 25% of all people who catch the virus are asymptomatic.

If #1 and #2 above are both true, that brings down our true mortality rate by a factor of 3.75. From 0.9-2.1% to 0.24-0.56%.

https://reason.com/2020/03/20/if-co...s-likely-to-be-much-lower-than-people-feared/

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

Hugging everyone from China sure didn’t help.
They should have closed their travel to and from China much faster than they did.

They succumbed to the Chinese temptation about a year ago to try to save their fashion industry. They are paying dearly today. Here is an article detailing the Italians jumping into bed with China...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/world/europe/italy-china-xi-silk-road.html

 

[rudedude]

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-price-of-luxury/

another related article to Northern Italy and influx of Chinese workers

 

[massimoManca II]

[QUOTE="interrobang, post: 4742593, member: 74396"]Italy has a lot more old people which has been discussed many times. Italy may not smoke as much now, but the old people affected were chimneys in decades past.[/QUOTE]

Ha. Really? That’s good to know*

 

[blion72]

I seriously doubt it ends up as "1% and change."

Latest academic studies from China estimate the mortality rate was 0.9-2.1% among those who were confirmed to have the virus AND showed symptoms of the virus.

That, of course, excludes 2 potentially sizable population groups:

1) People who had the virus, had symptoms, but they were mild and they never got tested (never became a confirmed case).

2) People who had the virus but were asymptomatic throughout (these would also never become a confirmed case).

Now, I don't know the size of those groups. But I'll make some guesses, which I'd argue are conservative guesses:

1) Group 1 is twice as large as confirmed cases. E.g., we have a 2:1 ratio between "actual cases" and "confirmed cases."

2) Group 2 - 25% of all people who catch the virus are asymptomatic.

If #1 and #2 above are both true, that brings down our true mortality rate by a factor of 3.75. From 0.9-2.1% to 0.24-0.56%.

https://reason.com/2020/03/20/if-co...s-likely-to-be-much-lower-than-people-feared/

medical researchers in the UK have put your logic forward and were even higher at 10x vs your 3.75. whatever the number i think your analysis is correct. we are going to see mortality in the .1-.5% when this is over. if any of these treatments work using existing drugs, it will be far lower and over quickly.

 

[psu00]

There were always reports that the Chinese were lying and cooking the books with their numbers from the beginning. I think it’s pretty obvious now their numbers are meaningless given the current early numbers in Italy, Spain, and France (who are roughly 2-3 months behind China in the start of their outbreaks)-

Reported Deaths-
China- 3,255. (7 yesterday)
Italy- 4,825. (793 yesterday)
Spain- 1,378. (285 yesterday)
France- 562. (112 yesterday)

Here’s a graph tracking number of deaths based on number of days out from 1st reported death-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ople-die-coronavirus-Italy-past-24-hours.html

I wouldn’t focus too much on number of new cases and death rates from that since those numbers are unreliable everywhere. (Most people never get tested).

There’s several factors in play (which strain of virus is hitting where, population density of countries, number of older folks, those with lots of big crowded cities vs those with few big cities, etc). If you just look at number of deaths per country, and adjust for population differences, I think it’s obvious China has not been honest.

The scary part is that looking at that graph (granted it’s early) both Spain and the UK are on trajectories to be worse than Italy.

 

[LionJim]

There were always reports that the Chinese were lying and cooking the books with their numbers from the beginning. I think it’s pretty obvious now their numbers are meaningless given the current early numbers in Italy, Spain, and France (who are roughly 2-3 months behind China in the start of their outbreaks)-

Reported Deaths-
China- 3,255. (7 yesterday)
Italy- 4,825. (793 yesterday)
Spain- 1,378. (285 yesterday)
France- 562. (112 yesterday)

Here’s a graph tracking number of deaths based on number of days out from 1st reported death-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ople-die-coronavirus-Italy-past-24-hours.html

I wouldn’t focus too much on number of new cases and death rates from that since those numbers are unreliable everywhere. (Most people never get tested).

There’s several factors in play (which strain of virus is hitting where, population density of countries, number of older folks, those with lots of big crowded cities vs those with few big cities, etc). If you just look at number of deaths per country, and adjust for population differences, I think it’s obvious China has not been honest.

The scary part is that looking at that graph (granted it’s early) both Spain and the UK are on trajectories to be worse than Italy.

My sister-in-law is an RN and she’s convinced that China has been holding back on the number of childrens’ deaths. You see more and more instances here in the US of children dying and she thinks that China hasn’t been transparent about this.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

As I said earlier, wait until it hits Venezuela. Their hospitals and general health care systems are already broken. It's going to be really bad down there. And everyone will be watching from the sidelines because they’re going to be preoccupied with their own problems.

And you believe it has not already hit them why? They are very dysfunctional and would be slow to figure out that they have a problem

 

[fairfaxlion2]

My sister-in-law is an RN and she’s convinced that China has been holding back on the number of childrens’ deaths. You see more and more instances here in the US of children dying and she thinks that China hasn’t been transparent about this.

That's not exactly going out on a limb. They aren't transparent about anything.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

i thought i read where Italy has a sizable amount of business in northern italy that were purchased by the chinese and those factories employ a lot of chinese labor, specifically from Wuhan, that 'commute' to italy with a lot of rotation of workers. and that is why they think it hit so hard as you had a huge chinese workforce that had come from china that infected

This is fake news invented by a British alt right politician. The first case likely came via Germany according to researchers tracking the spread via stain identification.

 

[LionJim]

And you believe it has not already hit them why? They are very dysfunctional and would be slow to figure out that they have a problem

Because I hadn’t yet checked when I wrote that reply.

Then I checked:

It’s already there, see the Fox News link. Nature doesn’t give a damn about borders. It’s going to be a shitshow.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...nourished-bodies-as-coronavirus-hits-home.amp

 

[PennStateNate]

I sense the numbers MAY be higher because the Italian population is MUCH older? Just my guess / perception.....

aren't 40% of the people in ICU younger then 50?

 

[michnittlion]

My sister-in-law is an RN and she’s convinced that China has been holding back on the number of childrens’ deaths. You see more and more instances here in the US of children dying and she thinks that China hasn’t been transparent about this.

Where are these "more and more instances here in the US of children dying?"

I'm sorry - I'll need to see a source on that. Because I'm not hearing that from anywhere (any European country either).

 

[interrobang]

I don't recall a single report of a kid dying from it.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Where are these "more and more instances here in the US of children dying?"

I'm sorry - I'll need to see a source on that. Because I'm not hearing that from anywhere (any European country either).

Yeah, not seeing it either. The reports I’ve seen involve a few young kids/infants with other serious medical conditions on top of Covid

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I don't recall a single report of a kid dying from it.

Just googled - there are a few. But these were not healthy kids to begin with - bowel blockages, prior heart surgeries, etc

 

[LionJim]

Where are these "more and more instances here in the US of children dying?"

I'm sorry - I'll need to see a source on that. Because I'm not hearing that from anywhere (any European country either).

It may be that I am exaggerating the problem but I had been under the impression that, generally, children get through this without any problem. That’s not the case.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-children-serious-illness.html

 

[psu00]

My sister-in-law is an RN and she’s convinced that China has been holding back on the number of childrens’ deaths. You see more and more instances here in the US of children dying and she thinks that China hasn’t been transparent about this.

I wouldn’t be shocked although my most accounts kids get through this better than others. There were many reports of Chinese docs refusing to test their patients for the virus and lots of dead bodies being burned that were never included in official figures.

China’s a country where saving face is all important and where bad news gets punished. If you look at their numbers, the Wuhan region was hit hard but shockingly the rest of the country had very minor deaths in comparison.

When all info must be reported to, and cleared by, Beijing before being published, I think other provinces just flat out lied so the punishment falls on Wuhan health officials.

Deaths per province in China-
1. Wuhan’s province- 3,139
2. Guangdong province- 8
3. Henan province- 22
4. Zhejiang province- 1
5. Hunan province- 4
6. Beijing- 8
7. Shanghai- 3
8. All other provinces- 70

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2019/12/tracking-coronavirus-china-data/

Now, given all we are seeing in Italy, Spain, France, and even here in the US with Seattle, NY, and California, does anyone really think only 8 people died in Beijing.....3 in Shanghai..... and all their other reported provinces above?

 

[LionJim]

Just googled - there are a few. But these were not healthy kids to begin with - bowel blockages, prior heart surgeries, etc

Yes, note my reply to Michnitlion.

 

[michnittlion]

Yeah, not seeing it either. The reports I’ve seen involve a few young kids/infants with other serious medical conditions on top of Covid

Right - and that's a topic in its own right. People who are already compromised in some way are more at risk.

It's kind of a painful subject for some, but even the "death rate" could be couched in different terms - e.g., what is the "incremental death rate."

My Dad has Alzheimer's back in the mid-2010s, it got to the point where he had to be confined to a bed within a nursing home (he was getting violent). Then he developed a lung clot and died. Now, what killed him - the Alzheimer's or the lung clot?

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Now, given all we are seeing in Italy, Spain, France, and even here in the US with Seattle, NY, and California, does anyone really think only 8 people died in Beijing.....3 in Shanghai..... and all their other reported provinces above?

I believe that as much as I believe that the whole thing started because someone ate a bat.

 

[Chris92]

[QUOTE="interrobang, post: 4742593, member: 74396"]Italy has a lot more old people which has been discussed many times. Italy may not smoke as much now, but the old people affected were chimneys in decades past.

Ha. Really? That’s good to know*[/QUOTE]

 

[LionJim]

I wouldn’t be shocked although my most accounts kids get through this better than others. There were many reports of Chinese docs refusing to test their patients for the virus and lots of dead bodies being burned that were never included in official figures.

China’s a country where saving face is all important and where bad news gets punished. If you look at their numbers, the Wuhan region was hit hard but shockingly the rest of the country had very minor deaths in comparison.

When all info must be reported to, and cleared by, Beijing before being published, I think other provinces just flat out lied so the punishment falls on Wuhan health officials.

Deaths per province in China-
1. Wuhan’s province- 3,139
2. Guangdong province- 8
3. Henan province- 22
4. Zhejiang province- 1
5. Hunan province- 4
6. Beijing- 8
7. Shanghai- 3
8. All other provinces- 70

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2019/12/tracking-coronavirus-china-data/

Now, given all we are seeing in Italy, Spain, France, and even here in the US with Seattle, NY, and California, does anyone really think only 8 people died in Beijing.....3 in Shanghai..... and all their other reported provinces above?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN218003