The 5,249 is less than the number of new cases on March 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd, although it is greater than yesterday's number. Holding out hope that they are starting to flatten the curve.
Italy still on figurative fire (USA in trouble)
- Thread starter Chickenman Testa
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To be exact - the 8.2% increase was in terms of total confirmed cases.
There were 63,927 total confirmed cases through Monday. 5,249 new confirmed cases today. 5249/63927 = 8.2%.
It's a 12.2% increase in the total deaths from Tuesday to Monday. 743/6077.
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The exact percentages by day are below, for reference and for those interested. You do want to see these go down over time, of course. And the trend IS downward, though it's a slow downward trend.
From 2-March to 24-March .....
Increase in total confirmed cases: 20.2%, 22.9%, 23.5%, 24.9%, 20.2%, 26.9%, 25.4%, 24.4%, 10.7%, 22.8%, 21.3%, 16.9%, 19.8%, 17.0%, 13.9%, 12.0%, 13.2%, 14.9%, 14.6%, 13.9%, 10.4%, 8.1%, 8.2%.
Increase in total deaths: 52.9%, 51.9%, 35.4%, 38.3%, 33.1%, 18.3%, 57.1%, 26.5%, 36.3%, 31.1%, 22.9%, 24.6%, 13.8%, 25.5%, 19.3%, 16.0%, 19.0%, 14.3%, 18.4%, 19.7%, 13.5%, 11.0%, 12.2%.
I found this page on BBC's website to be of interest. Particularly, the animated graph showing the cases by country by date.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Its impossible to wipe us all out by COVID-19. The mortality rate is around 1% of cases. If everyone gets it that means 99% recover and develop antibodies (Mother Nature’s vaccine). So significantly fewer people will get it a second time. Considering the population growth rate of the US is ~0.5%, it is very likely we won’t see any decline in population at all.
Applying the time-tested theorem of PennStateNate predictions, this means - obviously - that not a single Italian will die, from any cause, for at least the next month
great news everybody, this should all be cleared up by Friday now!
Oxford study says...well here:
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. @The Spin Meister
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. @The Spin Meister
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
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I'm not trying to be a pessimist --- but is there a link to these guys models? A paper they wrote? I need to see some more here.
50% of the population having been infected is a huge number. It would actually be a VERY GOOD thing, but a conclusion like that like this requires a lot of scrutiny before we go too far with their findings.
I believe this is it. I am interested in your view:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0
Agreed. Some early studies are looking at giving purified blood plasma from survivors to infected patients. It is typical that there would be some benefit either through immunity or lessening the infection severity from such treatments. If that is not true in this case, then there will be likely be little benefit for any vaccine.
Which peak? Total infections can drop as fatalities goes up. The fatality peak is probably a couple weeks behind the peak of infections.
Not really. TWO days is not a long term trend. The numbers were down Sat, sun and mon.
Thanks for that link! That's definitely their paper and model!
My thoughts:
(1) We're still at a situation where a vast majority (>80%) of people tested in nearly all countries test negative. 50% having already been infected already seems high in that context, even if there are people who have had the virus and are now immune (e.g., wouldn't test positive if they tested today).
(2) The most important parameter in their model is rho (the greek letter that looks like a lower case p). rho = proportion of the population at risk to a severe disease. If you look at Figure 3, you have a significant difference between people susceptible (not already being infected) based on rho. Anywhere from ~ 96% (if rho = 0.1) to 40% (if rho = 0.001).
(3) Intuitively, a rho of 0.001 (which gives the most optimistic result) doesn't make sense. At all. 1 out of only 1000 people are at risk to severe disease? Just doesn't couch with what is happening empirically. Note that rho is just being "at risk to severe disease", not "at risk to dying", which would be a lower number (rho * theta in their model).
(4) They may actually be under-estimating R0 (the reproduction number): 2.25 is what they're generally using but I'm seeing a number of things where R0 is higher (one study from Switzerland estimated 4.26!).
(5) That said, R0 likely was lower in March vs. February. Even before all the lockdowns and such, people were getting nervous because Coronavirus was in the news, and were voluntarily doing some social distancing already. So even if R0 was, say, 2.75 in February, it likely dipped in March before any governmental guidelines were issued, then dipped a whole lot more after that.
(6) If you look at the 2 orange lines in Figure 3 - you can see this model is much more sensitive to changes in rho than R0.
(7) So, ultimately the interpretation of this model is most dependent on making a good "guess" for rho. 0.001 doesn't pass the sniff test. A rho around 0.03? I could buy that, given that (A) ~ 1 in 5 people hospitalized (e.g., at risk to severe disease) die, and (B) I think the ultimate IFR from this virus will be on the order of 0.5%-1%.
(8) Use that rho and a slightly higher R0 than 2.25, and visualizing the graph in Figure 3 we'd be at ~ 15% of the population already having been infected.
(9) That would also correlate directionally with the numbers from #1.
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I'm not purporting to be an expert, but those are my high-level thoughts after looking at their paper. It's always good to get all of these academic studies out there in the wild for people to look at! But I do think the Financial Times headline that came out of this study is rather optimistic.
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LolApplying the time-tested theorem of PennStateNate predictions, this means - obviously - that not a single Italian will die, from any cause, for at least the next month
Assuming 15% of UK is infected, that would be 10.03 million as of around March 20 (estimate) per their model. A rho of 0.03 (3%) of 10.03 million means we should see ~300,000 cases (assuming every confirmed case constitutes a “risk for serious disease” not just hospitalization or death). On March 24, the UK is reporting ~8,100 cases total. Assuming a 14 day incubation period (generous IMO), we need to see 150% increases in cases day over day to get to around 300,000.
If not, then “at risk for serious disease” must encompass a larger number than confirmed cases or the severity is overestimated (in general; there is no dispute of severity for old and/or predisposed). Given that only 10 - 20% of tests are coming back positive, it doesn’t seem realistic that we are missing that many people with serious symptoms.
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Who stepped out of line to get multiple posts deleted in this thread?
I have gathered over the last few weeks that 40-80% of us will become infected.... a harvard epidemiologist and various state health depts in the nation have indicated this. I believe ny said 40-80% and ca said 56% most recently.
Really?
Can you explain how that is going to progress to those levels?
I live in North Carolina which has over 10 million people (450 infected so far); my county is part urban and suburban with 350,000 population. So far the county has 20 cases (added 2 yesterday). On track for 5 Million+ in NC and 175,000+ in this county??
I'm not seeing just how the total numbers are realistic.
No one knows? There are so many factors at play. A lot of the high percentage estimates are based on not doing anything to slow the spread. Do they come up with an effective drug? Does summer and late spring weather blunt the virus? Did a significant percentage of the population already have it? They are learning more everyday but right now it’s a crap shoot. Washington State has been leveling off the last several days as far as percentage increase. Who knows?
What is the time frame? NC had their 1st case 3 weeks ago. How many do you think will get it over the next 50 weeks?
Read this article. I wonder how many people in Europe have contracted the virus as a result of the inaction of the Austrian government. Who in their right mind would ever play beer pong with their mouths at anytime not just during this crisis.
Despite an official warning from the Icelandic government on March 4 that a group of its nationals had contracted coronavirus in Ischgl, Austrian authorities allowed ski tourism -- and the partying that goes with it -- to continue for another nine days before fully quarantining the resort on March 13. Bars in Ischgl were closed on March 10.
Even after a bartender tested positive for the virus, the medical authority of Tyrol -- where ski tourism is one of the biggest economic drivers -- reiterated in a press release on March 8 that there was "no reason to worry." CNN has reached out to Franz Katzgraber, the director of Tyrol's medical authority, for further comment and not received a response.
On March 7 -- three days after Iceland's warning -- a 36-year-old bartender at Kitzloch tested positive. Twenty-two of the bartender's contacts were quarantined, 15 of whom have since tested positive for Covid-19, the provincial government confirmed in press releases.
The outbreak had spread far beyond the Tyrol.
The most recent available Danish government figures show that out of more than 1,400 cases in Denmark, 298 contracted the virus in Austria. In comparison, only 61 cases are linked to travel to Italy, so far the hardest-hit country in Europe.
"We realized that they exchanged saliva because they were playing beer pong," using their mouths, he said, although he did not single out any specific bars where the game took place. The game involved spitting ping pong balls out of their mouths into beer glasses, and those balls were then reused by other people.
Lerfeldt reported that Kitzloch bartenders, including the 36-year-old who later tested positive for coronavirus, blew on a brass whistle to get people to move out of their way as they took shots to customers. Several customers also blew the whistle for fun, Lerfeldt said. "I can see why people would want to whistle it -- and nobody knew he was sick," Lerfeldt said.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Despite an official warning from the Icelandic government on March 4 that a group of its nationals had contracted coronavirus in Ischgl, Austrian authorities allowed ski tourism -- and the partying that goes with it -- to continue for another nine days before fully quarantining the resort on March 13. Bars in Ischgl were closed on March 10.
Even after a bartender tested positive for the virus, the medical authority of Tyrol -- where ski tourism is one of the biggest economic drivers -- reiterated in a press release on March 8 that there was "no reason to worry." CNN has reached out to Franz Katzgraber, the director of Tyrol's medical authority, for further comment and not received a response.
On March 7 -- three days after Iceland's warning -- a 36-year-old bartender at Kitzloch tested positive. Twenty-two of the bartender's contacts were quarantined, 15 of whom have since tested positive for Covid-19, the provincial government confirmed in press releases.
The outbreak had spread far beyond the Tyrol.
The most recent available Danish government figures show that out of more than 1,400 cases in Denmark, 298 contracted the virus in Austria. In comparison, only 61 cases are linked to travel to Italy, so far the hardest-hit country in Europe.
"We realized that they exchanged saliva because they were playing beer pong," using their mouths, he said, although he did not single out any specific bars where the game took place. The game involved spitting ping pong balls out of their mouths into beer glasses, and those balls were then reused by other people.
Lerfeldt reported that Kitzloch bartenders, including the 36-year-old who later tested positive for coronavirus, blew on a brass whistle to get people to move out of their way as they took shots to customers. Several customers also blew the whistle for fun, Lerfeldt said. "I can see why people would want to whistle it -- and nobody knew he was sick," Lerfeldt said.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html
2^9 equals 512 (close to the current number in NC). In words, once the initial case has double 9 times you see 512 cases. If it takes three days to double the number of cases than it takes ~27 days to reach current number in NC.
Now another 27 days would double it another 9 times for a total of 18 doubling, or 2^18 which equals 262144. In other words once you have 512 cases then each of those will give 512 cases itself for a total of 512 x 512 = 262144. Another 6 or 7 doublings (I.e. 2^23 or 2^24) gets you to 4 to 8 million. So purely based on math, you are 40% of the way to 4 million cases based on time while you only have seen 0.01% of the number of cases so far.
The challenge with exponential growth is that it takes awhile for the numbers to take off but then they multiply very rapidly.
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I am also reading reports from Stanford and MIT that these numbers are overblown. Numbers are all over the place.
For example in todays WSJ. Dr E. Bendavid and J. Bhattacharya, professors at Stanford school of medicine.....
Is COVID -19 as Deadly as They Say ?
(obviously just one paragraph, but it gives the gist of the article )
The northeastern Italian town of Vo, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vo were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (pop.955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests that there were actually 26,000 infections at that time That's more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
Sorry in advance you cannot link current WSJ articles due to their pay wall.
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How did we determine that the number of cases doubles every day? How many people in NC have already had it and we’re not tested?
Never said doubling time was one day. I used 3 days which is on the lower end of the observed range globally (3 - 6 days in most countries excluding China). If the double time was one day then it would take 23 days to go from first case to 4 million. However, no outbreak can sustain exponential growth indefinitely as it eventually runs out of uninfected people to infect. See below for data. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#the-growth-rate-of-covid-19-deaths
The number with positive tests is obviously lower than the actual number but whether it is off by 10, 100, or 1000 isn’t settled yet. Hopefully the number that had it and recovered or were asymptomatic but never tested is higher because that would depress the mortality rate and mean that we are further into the outbreak without yet overloading hospitals. That would mean fewer left to get it so we in theory are closer to the inflection point then if testing was perfect.
Full flights coming from NYC to all major FL airports. Why is NY exporting their problems to FL? Why did PDJT refuse some strategic USA air bans (like this one)? No one from NYC should be flying anywhere Governor Cuomo.
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The Diamond Princess cruise ship had about the most "favorable" conditions possible for a spread of the virus with many infected persons, common facilities, and no ready place to escape.
Even there, the 3700 passengers produced 700-some cases of infection, and I believe the death total is 4 so far.
Hey someone with a bit of sanity and common sense.... THANK YOU
I just LOVE Statistics and Analysis..... especially from someone smarter then me.
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