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How is Levis a top 5 or 10 pick?

It's always about a projection.

Yes and no.

31 teams can evaluate a guy as 2nd round all the way or lower, but if 1 team falls in love and pulls the trigger at #1 then those other evaluations mean nothing.

I don't think Levis is completely a projection player. He has good tape (and he has bad). He's led a fringe top 25 team with fringe top 40 talent the past 2 years. He's known, but some think he could be better.

Richardson is a pure projection player. Any team that spends its 1st rd pick on him is doing so in hopes that he can do something.
 
Yes and no.

31 teams can evaluate a guy as 2nd round all the way or lower, but if 1 team falls in love and pulls the trigger at #1 then those other evaluations mean nothing.

I don't think Levis is completely a projection player. He has good tape (and he has bad). He's led a fringe top 25 team with fringe top 40 talent the past 2 years. He's known, but some think he could be better.

Richardson is a pure projection player. Any team that spends its 1st rd pick on him is doing so in hopes that he can do something.
That's all fair. My point was every scout, coach, GM, etc is projecting how every player will do in the NFL. It's never about what they've done at college. Some of the best collegiate players were never destined for great things in the NFL--Colt Brennan, Ty Detmer, Graham Harrell, Johnny Manziel, Andre Ware, anyone that played QB at Florida, etc.
 
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I know it has been discussed before but I am trying to figure out how he goes from 2nd string at PSU to this? A colossal jump up. It has to be more than strong arm and big body, right? He could not beat out Clifford and it was the right decision. Admittedly, I did not watch him closely at Kentucky but from what I saw his play did not jump off the screen like a Bryce Young, Stroud, Caleb Williams, Hooker, etc. He lost the Ole Miss game with fumbles. He came in against O$U and just ran and ran like a fullback not an elusive fast QB, his Rutgers start was meh. I know I am comparing 2nd string at PSU without the benefit of first string practice reps vs 1st string reps at Kentucky so I'm sure that plays into things. I don't think he is particularly elusive or an incredibly good decision maker or a super accurate passer. This would suggest he could have been a 1st or 2nd team All American at PSU but I don't buy that. Did he really dramatically improve this much to justify a top 5 or 10 pick? I'm not the biggest Cliff fan but just trying to sort out how one guy (Cliff) beats out Levis and won't even be drafted and the other guy (Levis) never can earn first string yet here he is staring at a top 10 pick. I could see Levis at 3rd round and Cliff at 6th round maybe for example but this kind of disparity is bizarre in my opinion.
He is going to get a GM and head coach fired
 
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