Elon Musk predicts that in 20 yrs. new cars won't have steering wheels.

[Lion78]

I do not think we can eliminate "dumbness" in the next 20 years (although the Science/technology will be here in the next 10). I'm guessing more like 50-100 years to get past the DUMB that do not realize they are DUMB. Think about that one

Yes, Congress will get involved.

 

[PSU Mike]

FWIW, Virginia announced that, starting in the fall, they will be using the Northern VA express lanes around DC to test how multiple driverless cars react to each other.

Thank goodness I only drove 15 months in that &hit$how.

 

[PSU Mike]

There are a lot of issues to work out IMO. Will we end aimless Sunday drives? What if I have a sudden change in plans? Will there be traffic control devices -- if not the computing necessary will be massive to run any optimization of the massive flows. Will there be software that allows a car to be opportunistic knowing other cars will behave conservatively?

 

[Cletus11]

FWIW, Virginia announced that, starting in the fall, they will be using the Northern VA express lanes around DC to test how multiple driverless cars react to each other.

I think this is where it starts. Essentially take the current 'park and drive' commuter concept in major cities and just make the car driverless. The driverless car (van) picks up a central location and drops off at a central location in the city. So that route is pre-planned and the sensors, etc...can be specifically tested out and set up for that looped route. Ends up not being much different than a bus or train service with the cars leaving at certain times.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

How will the stock market be doing?

There won't be a stock market.

 

[NittPicker]

There are a lot of issues to work out IMO. Will we end aimless Sunday drives? What if I have a sudden change in plans? Will there be traffic control devices -- if not the computing necessary will be massive to run any optimization of the massive flows. Will there be software that allows a car to be opportunistic knowing other cars will behave conservatively?

All good questions. I've imagined driverless cars would be a matter of getting in and entering the destination via GPS like most people do today when taking a road trip. The main difference would obviously be sitting back to let technology do all the work. To work most efficiently all vehicles would need to be networked so the occupants have to option of being rerouted if there is a backlog due to commuter traffic, crashes, etc. There could be a computer prompt which would allow the occupants to select an alternate route. The problem with all that would be the large number of people who would balk at the possibility of their movements being tracked and recorded by big brother.

 

[PSUriseANDfire]

I predict in 20 years we won't have cars. Actually in 7-8 years most travel (including goods) will be in the air.

LdN

I can see drones doing deliveries and further making actual non-online shopping basically ended. Not carrying people though haha

 

[NittPicker]

I can see drones doing deliveries and further making actual non-online shopping. Not carrying people though haha

Drones already make deliveries. We know them as Pitt graduates working at the local pizza joint.

 

[Grant Green]

For the record, I brought up driverless cars years ago on this board and said we would see them within 40 years. The transition will be gradual but inevitable. It's already started now.

To those that doubt, what would you have thought in 1990 if I told you everyone would have access to something called the internet on hand held computers within 20 years?

 

[LionDeNittany]

I can see drones doing deliveries and further making actual non-online shopping basically ending stores as we see them. Not carrying people though haha

There is already a drone that carries people. It has 8 props... two on each corner. Look it up.

Fact is the FAA won't be able to regulate this in time and will need to simply approve zones for drone transport.

LdN

 

[bdgan]

George is holding onto a steering wheel in that car.

 

[bdgan]

For the record, I brought up driverless cars years ago on this board and said we would see them within 40 years. The transition will be gradual but inevitable. It's already started now.

To those that doubt, what would you have thought in 1990 if I told you everyone would have access to something called the internet on hand held computers within 20 years?

There's got to be a manual override.

 

[Grant Green]

There's got to be a manual override.

Maybe at first. I'm sure there are plenty of solutions that we can't even think of right now.

 

[Woodpecker]

IM(NS)HO, the only way driverless technology works is if EVERYONE has it. From some of the responses in this thread, you can tell that ain't happening soon (You can have my steering wheen when you pry it from my cold dead hands!).

I don't see the flying car concept happening until the above scenario takes place. Before that, imagine all of the problems we now see on the roads ... now imagine that in 3D.

 

[Obliviax]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have driverless, point-to-point semi's soon. Many of the major carriers have places in Philly, Pitts, Youngstown and Toledo. Not a jump to consider having a semi that drives point to point to these warehouses where they can exchange hauls. You might even designate lanes specifically for trucks because they'd all drive the same speed....it would be like railroad cars of trucks on the far right lanes of the turnpike. I can see this in just a couple of years.

 

[Obliviax]

If the stated purpose of driverless anything is to reduce congestion and safely speed the movement of goods and people from point to point, how does driverless trucks solve traffic congestion?

I agree with woodpecker, the tipping point to achieve the above mentioned goals is very high. It only takes a few human drivers to cause traffic havoc in an otherwise driverless environment.

I don't know what anyone's "purpose" is...but the driver of this will be economics. Why pay a driver? Plus, drivers are inconsistent (driving different speeds, needing to stop for various reasons, etc.). Create a lane for driverless trucks that go a consistent 60 mph. They go from one hub to the next. Easy peasy. Cheap, Simple, solves problems. And...minimal technology because the roads they travel are pretty well defined with very few turns.

 

[PSU Mike]

So energy economy, regardless of source, should skyrocket. No accidents would reduce need for 1/2 a car's bulk.

 

[KnightSlayer]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have driverless, point-to-point semi's soon. Many of the major carriers have places in Philly, Pitts, Youngstown and Toledo. Not a jump to consider having a semi that drives point to point to these warehouses where they can exchange hauls. You might even designate lanes specifically for trucks because they'd all drive the same speed....it would be like railroad cars of trucks on the far right lanes of the turnpike. I can see this in just a couple of years.

I was thinking something like that the other week. A driver takes truck from city warehouse or factory to a highway. Once at the highway, he gets out and the truck drives across the country by itself. A driver meets truck at other end and makes local delivery.

 

[Tri-Power65]

There won't be a stock market.