DraftKings sportsbook's over/under on Penn State wins this year is 10.5

[Jerry]

Link below. Only Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, and Texas are at a similar number on the DK board.

Meanwhile, FanDuel says 9.5, which may be more realistic. But even 9.5 is better than every team on our schedule except the Buckeyes. See FD's schedule rating at the bottom of the article.

Granted, none of this proves a thing, but the fact is that heading into the season, we're favored against every opponent except Ohio State.

That's why I said in another thread that making the 12-team playoff is a very reasonable (even minimal) expectation.

Of course, the games are played on the field...not on paper:

Analyzing Penn State’s 2024 betting win totals: Will the Nittany Lions reach double digits?

The question surrounding Penn State under James Franklin has largely been the same: can the program get over the hump? The 2016 season was memorable, beating Ohio State and winning

www.dailyitem.com

 

[PSU4U]

Link below. Only Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, and Texas are at a similar number on the DK board.

Meanwhile, FanDuel says 9.5, which may be more realistic. But even 9.5 is better than every team on our schedule except the Buckeyes. See FD's schedule rating at the bottom of the article.

Granted, none of this proves a thing, but the fact is that heading into the season, we're favored against every opponent except Ohio State.

That's why I said in another thread that making the 12-team playoff is a very reasonable (even minimal) expectation.

Of course, the games are played on the field...not on paper:

Analyzing Penn State’s 2024 betting win totals: Will the Nittany Lions reach double digits?

The question surrounding Penn State under James Franklin has largely been the same: can the program get over the hump? The 2016 season was memorable, beating Ohio State and winning

www.dailyitem.com

As for DraftKings, sounds about right.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I think the aberration in win total with DK is likely a recognition that PSU seems to do exactly what it is expected to do and no more. We consistently win the ones that we are supposed to and very rarely win the ones that we aren't supposed to win. So few upsets either way has given them the confidence to raise the win total 1 game ahead of other services.

I think most teams are more of a variable than PSU has been. Most teams drop some they aren't supposed to but also can win a few that they shouldn't. We are consistently predictable lately.

 

[Obliviax]

let's average it out and win 10.

Tough games:

• @ WVu - tough venue to start the year
• @ USC - retooling a bit with a challenge on defense
• Vs tOSU - talented, experienced
• vs Washington - New coach and lost a lot of talent

Difficult Games

• Illinois - Always play us tough
• UCLA - easiest game in this grouping but they do get talent.
• @Wisconsin - Upswing under a new coach and a tough place to play
• @ Purdue - Upswing with a good coach and a lot of xfers
• Minnesota - good coach late in the year in iffy weather
• MD - decent talent in iffy weather (Nov. 30th)

Should Win Games

• BGSU
• Kent

 

[Jerry]

As for DraftKings, sounds about right.

Based on recent history, I think the FanDuel number is more realistic, but if things break our way, 10 or 11 regular season wins is certainly achievable.

The talent is there, and while the schedule is not a walk in the park, only Ohio State is a powerhouse opponent. Washington, USC, and Wisconsin will not be pushovers but they're not to the standard of previous years and may not even crack the top-20 in the preseason poll.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Based on recent history, I think the FanDuel number is more realistic, but if things break our way, 10 or 11 regular season wins is certainly achievable.

The talent is there, and while the schedule is not a walk in the park, only Ohio State is a powerhouse opponent. Washington, USC, and Wisconsin will not be pushovers but they're not to the standard of previous years and may not even crack the top-20 in the preseason poll.

Sometimes it isn't the number of teams that you should lose to but rather the number of tough games particularly back to back that you have.

Look at Obli's post above. There are 2 easy games and maybe another or two in the difficult category that we could have a significant letdown but still win. The rest is a grind. And a grind can grind a team down leading to a letdown against a team that has enough talent to take advantage. I'd say that schedule leaves 2 or 3 likely losses despite the fact that we should beat all of them but 1 on paper. It's the grind and not being able to have a letdown.

 

[Obliviax]

Based on recent history, I think the FanDuel number is more realistic, but if things break our way, 10 or 11 regular season wins is certainly achievable.

The talent is there, and while the schedule is not a walk in the park, only Ohio State is a powerhouse opponent. Washington, USC, and Wisconsin will not be pushovers but they're not to the standard of previous years and may not even crack the top-20 in the preseason poll.

Agree. And it is also how the schedule "sets up". By that I mean we play ILL, UCLA and @ USC in consecutive weeks before a bye. We then turn around and play @ Wisconsin, tOSU, Washington, @ Purdue, @ Minn (that is Minny in Minny on Nov 23rd) and finish with MD (the latest game, perhaps, ever played at Beaver Stadium on Nov. 30th, meaning could be weather affected).

The other odd thing is that we have only one home game in October; the meat of a football season. We have two away games and a bye with the only home game being Oct 5th vs UCLA. So we go from Oct 5th to Nov 2nd without a home game.

 

[Jerry]

Sometimes it isn't the number of teams that you should lose to but rather the number of tough games particularly back to back that you have.

Look at Obli's post above. There are 2 easy games and maybe another or two in the difficult category that we could have a significant letdown but still win. The rest is a grind. And a grind can grind a team down leading to a letdown against a team that has enough talent to take advantage. I'd say that schedule leaves 2 or 3 likely losses despite the fact that we should beat all of them but 1 on paper. It's the grind and not being able to have a letdown.

Agree. And it is also how the schedule "sets up". By that I mean we play ILL, UCLA and @ USC in consecutive weeks before a bye. We then turn around and play @ Wisconsin, tOSU, Washington, @ Purdue, @ Minn (that is Minny in Minny on Nov 23rd) and finish with MD (the latest game, perhaps, ever played at Beaver Stadium on Nov. 30th, meaning could be weather affected).

The other odd thing is that we have only one home game in October; the meat of a football season. We have two away games and a bye with the only home game being Oct 5th vs UCLA. So we go from Oct 5th to Nov 2nd without a home game.

All good points. The "grind" factor is huge as is the schedule set-up. Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Washington in consecutive weeks is a tough ask even with the latter two being at home. That's why I think FanDuel's 9.5 is likely closer to the mark than the DK over/under.

Still, even with that, we will likely be betting favorites in every game on that schedule except one. So much is riding on Andy's ability to invigorate Drew and the passing game.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Agree. And it is also how the schedule "sets up". By that I mean we play ILL, UCLA and @ USC in consecutive weeks before a bye. We then turn around and play @ Wisconsin, tOSU, Washington, @ Purdue, @ Minn (that is Minny in Minny on Nov 23rd) and finish with MD (the latest game, perhaps, ever played at Beaver Stadium on Nov. 30th, meaning could be weather affected).

The other odd thing is that we have only one home game in October; the meat of a football season. We have two away games and a bye with the only home game being Oct 5th vs UCLA. So we go from Oct 5th to Nov 2nd without a home game.

Yes that stretch in the middle sucks. No home games for the best part of the fall. That's terrible and may weigh on attendence.

Plus, they give us @ Wisconsin (a notorious physical team that gets you in a slugfest) to soften us up for Ohio St. We seem to get that or Ohio St and Michigan back to back a lot. It makes it a lot harder to beat Ohio St when you are nursing body blows heading into the game.

 

[Obliviax]

Yes that stretch in the middle sucks. No home games for the best part of the fall. That's terrible and may weigh on attendence.

Plus, they give us @ Wisconsin (a notorious physical team that gets you in a slugfest) to soften us up for Ohio St. We seem to get that or Ohio St and Michigan back to back a lot. It makes it a lot harder to beat Ohio St when you are nursing body blows heading into the game.

Agreed. in the past the reason for that is the bastardized schedule to accommodate UM and tOSU. Have that always be the last game made every other team end up cramming in those two teams closely or even back to back. When you surround them with Wiscy, Spary and/or Illinois, you've got a very physical schedule.

 

[jjw165]

With an over/under of 10.5 I would take the under as a bettor and wish for the over as a fan.
An over/under of 9.5? Now, that’s more difficult. PSU has shown to be capable of winning 10 games in a year under Franklin.

 

[lazydave841]

As long as the new OL gels, we have the RBs and TEs to "Iowa" everybody on our schedule save for OSU. It's not pretty. It isn't flashy. But it worked last year until we had Allar throw 42 times vs OSU in Columbus.

Allar, the WRs, and OL play are the big wild cards that probably separate this team from 8-10 wins and 11 or 12.

Of course, this isn't assessing the defense very much, but we shouldn't be challenged at our weakest spot preseason (Corner) until USC and OSU.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Good points by all. But predicting this season is but impossible. New OC. new DC. New special teams coach. A QB with ?. Lost three NFL drafted O linemen. New west coast teams with different styles, huge travel effects, weather impacts. And several schools lost a ton of talent so the opposition is unknown.

A crazy season coming to a tv screen near you soon!

 

[OKLionFan]

Good points by all. But predicting this season is but impossible. New OC. new DC. New special teams coach. A QB with ?. Lost three NFL drafted O linemen. New west coast teams with different styles, huge travel effects, weather impacts. And several schools lost a ton of talent so the opposition is unknown.

A crazy season coming to a tv screen near you soon!

Great post, and spot-on IMO.

 

[The Spin Meister]

One thing about Buckeyes: they play Iowa at home the go to NikeLand in back to back games. It’s possible they lose both and Day will be in huge trouble when we play them. Score early on them and the crowd would get ugly.

 

[LandoComando]

let's average it out and win 10.

Tough games:

• @ WVu - tough venue to start the year
• @ USC - retooling a bit with a challenge on defense
• Vs tOSU - talented, experienced
• vs Washington - New coach and lost a lot of talent

Difficult Games

• Illinois - Always play us tough
• UCLA - easiest game in this grouping but they do get talent.
• @Wisconsin - Upswing under a new coach and a tough place to play
• @ Purdue - Upswing with a good coach and a lot of xfers
• Minnesota - good coach late in the year in iffy weather
• MD - decent talent in iffy weather (Nov. 30th)

Should Win Games

• BGSU
• Kent

This is greatly overating almost everyone we play. If WVU is tough and those games are difficult we're not the program anyone claims we are.

 

[PSUWrestlingFanSince2011]

10.5 U is easy $

 

[PSU4U]

All good points. The "grind" factor is huge as is the schedule set-up. Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Washington in consecutive weeks is a tough ask even with the latter two being at home. That's why I think FanDuel's 9.5 is likely closer to the mark than the DK over/under.

Still, even with that, we will likely be betting favorites in every game on that schedule except one. So much is riding on Andy's ability to invigorate Drew and the passing game.

For DA I'm using the fact that he was just a true soph last year as an excuse, coach K has some work to do there. Also, the WO situation didn't do DA any favors. That said I expect the WO's and DA to be better this year. While the schedule is set up to be tough, I think we get enough of those games at home to be able to wade through it. I think with that schedule and the way it's set up we are still a 10-2 or better team over last year. But that's just me.

 

[Jerry]

For DA I'm using the fact that he was just a true soph last year as an excuse, coach K has some work to do there. Also, the WO situation didn't do DA any favors. That said I expect the WO's and DA to be better this year. While the schedule is set up to be tough, I think we get enough of those games at home to be able to wade through it. I think with that schedule and the way it's set up we are still a 10-2 or better team over last year. But that's just me.

I think 10-2 gets us to the playoffs and that will be the standard by which this season is measured. Of course it sure would be nice to win at least one game there if we do make it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

That said, I'd have to take the Under on DK's 10.5 win number. It blows my mind that the book has us in the same company with the likes of Ohio State and Georgia in that department. Granted, this proves nothing, but it's still an interesting data point for offseason conversation.

By the way, DK makes us a 12.5-point favorite to beat West Virginia on the road in the August 31 opener.

 

[PSU4U]

I think 10-2 gets us to the playoffs and that will be the standard by which this season is measured. Of course it sure would be nice to win at least one game there if we do make it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

That said, I'd have to take the Under on DK's 10.5 win number. It blows my mind that the book has us in the same company with the likes of Ohio State and Georgia in that department. Granted, this proves nothing, but it's still an interesting data point for offseason conversation.

By the way, DK makes us a 12.5-point favorite to beat West Virginia on the road in the August 31 opener.

Been to many PS games in Morgantown. It's a tough place to play, home of the burning couch. Don't know what WVA has coming back this year, but they surprised most fans last year even winning a bowl game. They have a very loyal fanbase so their house will be rocking. I think the key to winning that game will be not beating ourselves, and just play solid PS football. Whatever that will be this year with coach K.

 

[bdgan]

Link below. Only Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, and Texas are at a similar number on the DK board.

Meanwhile, FanDuel says 9.5, which may be more realistic. But even 9.5 is better than every team on our schedule except the Buckeyes. See FD's schedule rating at the bottom of the article.

Granted, none of this proves a thing, but the fact is that heading into the season, we're favored against every opponent except Ohio State.

That's why I said in another thread that making the 12-team playoff is a very reasonable (even minimal) expectation.

Of course, the games are played on the field...not on paper:

Analyzing Penn State’s 2024 betting win totals: Will the Nittany Lions reach double digits?

The question surrounding Penn State under James Franklin has largely been the same: can the program get over the hump? The 2016 season was memorable, beating Ohio State and winning

www.dailyitem.com

10.5 sounds overly optimistic.

These are all risky games for a team that has questions at OL, CB, WR, and LB.

@WVa
@ USC
@ Wisc
OSU
Wash

IMO 11-1 is best case and 8-4 is worst case.

 

[bdgan]

For DA I'm using the fact that he was just a true soph last year as an excuse, coach K has some work to do there. Also, the WO situation didn't do DA any favors. That said I expect the WO's and DA to be better this year. While the schedule is set up to be tough, I think we get enough of those games at home to be able to wade through it. I think with that schedule and the way it's set up we are still a 10-2 or better team over last year. But that's just me.

What's the WO situation? I assume you meant WR but you said WO twice.

Speaking of WR, I'm seeing a lot of hype about Peter Gonzales making an impact at WR as a true freshman. I don't understand the hype. Gonzales was a 3* whose next best offer was probably Miami. He was ranked the 82nd best WR and #9 prospect in PA. That resume doesn't suggest he'll be an immediate impact player. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[PSU4U]

What's the WO situation? I assume you meant WR but you said WO twice.

LOL yeah, I have a bad habit of going with WO as Wide Out over WR Wide Receiver. I have to correct that, but bad habits die hard. WO is an old acronym.

 

[PSU4U]

10.5 sounds overly optimistic.

These are all risky games for a team that has questions at OL, CB, WR, and LB.

@WVa
@ USC
@ Wisc
OSU
Wash

IMO 11-1 is best case and 8-4 is worst case.

I see it as the only team on that list who perhaps doesn't have question marks is OSU. I think we will stack up very well against the rest. But as they say, "on any given Sat."

 

[Jerry]

Been to many PS games in Morgantown. It's a tough place to play, home of the burning couch. Don't know what WVA has coming back this year, but they surprised most fans last year even winning a bowl game. They have a very loyal fanbase so their house will be rocking. I think the key to winning that game will be not beating ourselves, and just play solid PS football. Whatever that will be this year with coach K.

Agreed, that game is far from a gimme on the road against a team coming off a pretty successful season and with high hopes of an encore this year.

I think they're bringing back their most productive players on offense but have some big holes to fill on D including at the cornerback position.

All in all, it should be a good test for us. I don't think we'll blow them out but would certainly expect to win the game and see some good things from our new offense.

 

[PSU4U]

And they will have their ears pinned back at Kickoff. No pun intended.

In coach K we must trust. If he can put DA in situations that hide his deficiencies and as he progresses in coach K's offense, he could be one of the top two or three QB's in the country and end up a top 5 draft choice. Just my opinions of course.

 

[bdgan]

I see it as the only team on that list who perhaps doesn't have question marks is OSU. I think we will stack up very well against the rest. But as they say, "on any given Sat."

That's the point. PSU might have a 70% chance of beating each of WVa, USC, Wisc, & Wash but those odds would suggest they could easily lose 1 or 2.

 

[PSU4U]

That's the point. PSU might have a 70% chance of beating each of WVa, USC, Wisc, & Wash but those odds would suggest they could easily lose 1 or 2.

I'm certainly not counting that possibility out and I think WVA could be a tough opener with so many key coaching changes at PS especially on O where the whole O could be transformed during the course of the season.