Meanwhile, consider Nick Lee's best 4 matches of last season.
COVID gratuitous dumpster fire thread
- Thread starter El-Jefe
- Start date
Some perspective:
Covid is not red or blue, but of it could register it would probably do so as an independent like me.
Anyone who thinks any politician or organization can manage Covid into oblivion and make us all safe must be in an MJ legal state and partaking far too frequently.
We spend hundreds of millions of $ annualy dollars annually on organizations like the
WHO, NIH, CDC, NCPDCID and they have been talking about pandemics my whole life, there have been dozens of movies warning us of far worse than CV-19, yet by and large we were caught with our pants down when this broke. Shame on the army of PHDs who's whole lives revolve around this stuff. What have they been doing the past 4 decades? The answer is 'what bureaucrats do, move ineptly forward like a snail facing a hurricane'. You want to assign blame, there is a start...
Now some numbers: every year 190 Million+ Americans get the Flu vaccine, even so it remains an annual epidemic with between 15-45 million cases in the US. The flu vaccine itself is estimated to be only 40-60% effective in a good year when the guess right. So much for a vaccine saving us all.
The current World population 7,800,000,000
The current number of positive Covid tests WW is 55,775,968 or wait for it .... a soberting 0.72%. Sure let's shut down the country this winter and everything will simply pass us by. Better we paint our thresholds in lambs blood.
Aside from positive tests, the WHO estimates as many as 10% of the world has been exposed leaving 7,020,000,000 yet to be exposed
Meaning, under any interpretation COVID is just getting started.
Now to masks. The non form fitting, imperfect seal, non-M95, cloth prices of crap, that we are all wearing provide little real protection against airborne water vapor molecule sized droplet carrying virus which can easily pass through these in both directions. Sure if a CV positive person is hacking up a lung next to you it will block larger pieces of mucus and flegm, but his every normal breath is passing right through his mask and right through yours is you are close enough.
So yes, everyone 'feels' good when they see someone wearing a bandana next to them, but that is an emotional response, partly conditioned by this point. The rational side should take a look around the next time you are at Costco and take in the fresh aroma of satire. It's all a friggin joke.
Bottom line is for everyone to individually take some reasonable precautions, go ahead and live your lives.
Sure wear a mask over every breath you take, but don't kid yourself if it ain't a properly fitting M95, and don't go crazy emotionally or otherwise.
3-4 years from now CV will still be with us, it will be yet one more strain added to the standard annual flu shot, people at risk will still be dying at rates higher than the flu, and maybe just maybe we might be back to a sense of normalcy, maybe even for those several million people who have lost their livelihoods in the meantime, as politicians from both sides wrestle this dang virus into submission.
Covid is not red or blue, but of it could register it would probably do so as an independent like me.
Anyone who thinks any politician or organization can manage Covid into oblivion and make us all safe must be in an MJ legal state and partaking far too frequently.
We spend hundreds of millions of $ annualy dollars annually on organizations like the
WHO, NIH, CDC, NCPDCID and they have been talking about pandemics my whole life, there have been dozens of movies warning us of far worse than CV-19, yet by and large we were caught with our pants down when this broke. Shame on the army of PHDs who's whole lives revolve around this stuff. What have they been doing the past 4 decades? The answer is 'what bureaucrats do, move ineptly forward like a snail facing a hurricane'. You want to assign blame, there is a start...
Now some numbers: every year 190 Million+ Americans get the Flu vaccine, even so it remains an annual epidemic with between 15-45 million cases in the US. The flu vaccine itself is estimated to be only 40-60% effective in a good year when the guess right. So much for a vaccine saving us all.
The current World population 7,800,000,000
The current number of positive Covid tests WW is 55,775,968 or wait for it .... a soberting 0.72%. Sure let's shut down the country this winter and everything will simply pass us by. Better we paint our thresholds in lambs blood.
Aside from positive tests, the WHO estimates as many as 10% of the world has been exposed leaving 7,020,000,000 yet to be exposed
Meaning, under any interpretation COVID is just getting started.
Now to masks. The non form fitting, imperfect seal, non-M95, cloth prices of crap, that we are all wearing provide little real protection against airborne water vapor molecule sized droplet carrying virus which can easily pass through these in both directions. Sure if a CV positive person is hacking up a lung next to you it will block larger pieces of mucus and flegm, but his every normal breath is passing right through his mask and right through yours is you are close enough.
So yes, everyone 'feels' good when they see someone wearing a bandana next to them, but that is an emotional response, partly conditioned by this point. The rational side should take a look around the next time you are at Costco and take in the fresh aroma of satire. It's all a friggin joke.
Bottom line is for everyone to individually take some reasonable precautions, go ahead and live your lives.
Sure wear a mask over every breath you take, but don't kid yourself if it ain't a properly fitting M95, and don't go crazy emotionally or otherwise.
3-4 years from now CV will still be with us, it will be yet one more strain added to the standard annual flu shot, people at risk will still be dying at rates higher than the flu, and maybe just maybe we might be back to a sense of normalcy, maybe even for those several million people who have lost their livelihoods in the meantime, as politicians from both sides wrestle this dang virus into submission.
Thanks for wasting a few minutes of my life that I used to read your temper tantrum, feel better?
I like the lamb's blood over the threshold idea. Seriously, this is one of the best posts on the subject. I have always said to those who ask my opinion that no matter how much we lock down, in the end, the virus will still be there waiting. Other than the criticisms that are made by either side of the political spectrum, when every thing is said and done mistakes were made (again on both political sides) by imperfect human beings (of which I am one), which were made at the time with the best of intentions. Covid is a pathogen, doing what nature intended for a pathogen to do. Strengthen the herd by culling the weak. The result being for many, emotional distress over the loved ones lost.
Well supposedly the 2 leading vaccine candidates are 90+% effective, so in theory, no it shouldn’t be killing nearly as many people.
They omit the small print.
90% effective at generating antibodies. True effectiveness, strength of the immune response, reduction in symptoms and fatalities for those at high risk, and the list goes on, are all TBD.
The availability of an effective vaccine is an awesome milestone for sure, however...
The impact on the crisis will likely play out very slowly over several years not months.
No temper or tantrum. I have posted very little in the past 6 months. Reading through the first 8 pages of this thread, I saw far too much politician blame in both directions. I think it more constructive and actuate to stay grounded on the problem and not the periphery.
CCfamingo summarised it perfectly "Covid is a pathogen, doing what nature intended for a pathogen to do".
Not sure this is correct. The moderna vaccine (mRNA-based) appears ~94% effective at protecting against disease, not simply generating abs.
From the bbc:
The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.
The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.
Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5% of people.
The data also shows there were 11 cases of severe Covid in the trial, but none happened in people who were immunised.
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When was this? Not that I dont believe you hoosier, you know all about Lee’s,but would LOVE to see this!
Cheers.What a kind way to say it!#kindness #civility
The other point, which is easy to miss, is the following: Based on reports, the Moderna vaccine is stable at -20 degrees celsius while Pfizer's is stable at -70C. Logistically, this is a pretty big deal, as I think the flu vaccine (or at least many other vaccines) are typically stored at -20, so most pharmacies are already set up to accommodate the Moderna vaccine in their freezers, which is unlikely to be true for the Pfizer vaccine. So, will help a lot with storage...
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Not sure this is correct.
The Pfizer vaccine was tested at 36F for a week. Additional testing to determine the actual length of time that standard refrigeration temperatures can be used is underway.
fyi, based on the Pfizer data that has been supplied, their vaccine was 98.2% effective for the study. Like most prudent companies they chose to state that it's 90% effective because they are very sure it's at least 90% effective. I did not do the calculations on the Moderna vaccine but I suspect they are greater than their advertised effectiveness of 94.5%. Here is a link to how I calculated the Pfizer number:
Fc. Pfizer says their vaccine is 90% effective..
Not exactly correct. I saw where Pfizer was going to send safety information to the CDC in the next couple of weeks. Nevertheless, this is a priming development. I would imagine that's pretty standard practice since every medication has some rare serious side effect
bwi.forums.rivals.com
Thanks for the correction and additional information. I'm going off what I heard on TV with respect to stability at -70 for Pfizer and neither my hearing nor memory are as good as they used to be. So, I messed that up.Not sure this is correct.
The Pfizer vaccine was tested at 36F for a week. Additional testing to determine the actual length of time that standard refrigeration temperatures can be used is underway.
fyi, based on the Pfizer data that has been supplied, their vaccine was 98.2% effective for the study. Like most prudent companies they chose to state that it's 90% effective because they are very sure it's at least 90% effective. I did not do the calculations on the Moderna vaccine but I suspect they are greater than their advertised effectiveness of 94.5%. Here is a link to how I calculated the Pfizer number:
Fc. Pfizer says their vaccine is 90% effective..
Not exactly correct. I saw where Pfizer was going to send safety information to the CDC in the next couple of weeks. Nevertheless, this is a priming development. I would imagine that's pretty standard practice since every medication has some rare serious side effect
Agreed r.e. efficacy - the two vaccines are both good and appear to be essentially equally effective. Numbers/efficacy will change a bit here and there as the studies progress, but it's good news and we can all use good news.
Replying to your post here.
Ok I wasn’t sure what you meant my “lower demographics” previously, sounds like you’re referring to younger ages. However that was the argument in the summer too. Problem is then it spreads to the more vulnerable population. Average daily deaths are now higher than they were during the second peak over the summer.
I deleted everything from the other post out of respect for the posters there who asked me to. Not sure I want to get into a huge debate anymore anyway.
But I don't see 10k deaths a day anywhere in the trends right now. Yes we ticked above the avg daily deaths from summer just this week. But there certainly don't seem to be signs that will tick up to 10k. In fact fatalities seem to be flattening a touch but that might just be short data sets last week or so.
Difference in demographic now is way different from summer. The summer spike did not reflect the millions of test being done on college and K-12 kids every other week. It is a major shift in demographic of positive cases, and cases that are largely asymptomatic which therefore spread much less.
You can have any last word you want. I am tired of the debate. And tired of my kids being punished for something not dangerous to them.
PSAC CANCELED all winter sports
https://www.mcall.com/sports/colleg...44naqdjc4brmkhtjdw4-story.html?outputType=amp
https://www.mcall.com/sports/colleg...44naqdjc4brmkhtjdw4-story.html?outputType=amp
Could one of you good chaps articulate the stance of authorities on out of staters coming back to commonwealth next week.
My family is all over the board and I cant get a straight answer from the internet.
Happy to get another covid test to come back but my kids arent big fans of the swabs
My family is all over the board and I cant get a straight answer from the internet.
Happy to get another covid test to come back but my kids arent big fans of the swabs
Clear test in 72 hours prior to arrival, OR 14 day quarantine when you get here. Not sure what happens if you leave the state before the 14 days are up though.
Now, back to the topic at hand: I'd love to see this matchup again now. I feel like RBY's handfighting and some of his setups are so much better, don't see it being as close....
LOOPHOLE: you can still travel into PA tomorrow, as long as you cross the border before midnight. (Can't vouch for other states' restrictions when leaving PA.)
Otherwise you're either getting a test within 72 hrs, saying you're coming to PA for work (which might not work for the kids), or doing a 14-day house arrest.
Travelers
www.health.pa.gov
Other option is to take your chances entering PA on some less traveled road, and hope the cops aren't sitting there in ticket writing mode. But then leaving PA will pose the same obstacle.
Even bigger loophole: they are not enforcing it. Levine says they are asking for cooperation, but didn't discuss any new enforcement measures.LOOPHOLE: you can still travel into PA tomorrow, as long as you cross the border before midnight. (Can't vouch for other states' restrictions when leaving PA.)
Otherwise you're either getting a test within 72 hrs, saying you're coming to PA for work (which might not work for the kids), or doing a 14-day house arrest.
Travelers
Other option is to take your chances entering PA on some less traveled road, and hope the cops aren't sitting there in ticket writing mode. But then leaving PA will pose the same obstacle.
That certainly depends on which part of the border is being crossed. The State Police report to the Governor, so that's asking for trouble even if the individual officers/units disagree with him.
But maybe some county/local police depts will be more lenient? I have no way to gauge this, except the City of Philadelphia never declines any potential fines, including when no offenses have been committed.
Then there's still the question of what other states will do to people leaving PA.
This is not true. Dangerous misinformation..........
Dr. Haseltine warns that asymptomatic infections could be as infectious as serious cases of disease.
“The reason being is that the concentration of virus in oral nasal secretions peaks early in the infection process and can reach as many as a billion virus particles per milliliter,” he said.
Counterintuitively, the longer people are seriously ill, the concentration of virus drops by “many orders of magnitude.”
PS: Sorry about your children......it does suck. We will all be glad when it is over
Put NY plates on your car.. Travel is allowed for "work"
LOOPHOLE: you can still travel into PA tomorrow, as long as you cross the border before midnight. (Can't vouch for other states' restrictions when leaving PA.)
Otherwise you're either getting a test within 72 hrs, saying you're coming to PA for work (which might not work for the kids), or doing a 14-day house arrest.
Travelers
Other option is to take your chances entering PA on some less traveled road, and hope the cops aren't sitting there in ticket writing mode. But then leaving PA will pose the same obstacle.
Apparently the the WHO is spreading dangerous misinformation. From September:
"
Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.
Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier never develops symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it’s being transmitted.
“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”"
And from Harvard:
"Finding high amounts of viral genetic material — these studies measured viral RNA, not live virus — in kids does not prove that children are infectious."
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When I say "they," I mean Wolf and Levine.
From https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/11/18/pennsylvania-health-secretary-dr-rachel-levine-targeted-efforts-coronavirus/
"When asked if the orders were empty rhetoric, Dr. Levine says “absolutely not,” adding, “in the end, people will have the consequences of their actions.”
Unlike states like New York, which has threatened large fines for violators, compliance will largely be on the honor system since the state has no plans for enforcement or penalty.
“You know, we all are blessed to have freedoms in our country but with freedom comes responsibility, and right now that means following these orders and guidance in terms of stopping the spread of a COVID-19 in Pennsylvania,” says Levine.
She also says as secretary of health, she has the authority to enforce isolation and quarantines.
“We’re looking to take people to court to be able to do that, but I do have that authority,” says Dr. Levine. “And so we cannot check every car driving into Pennsylvania and we have no plans to check everybody coming off every airplane in Pennsylvania. We are stating what our orders are and we want to communicate that we expect that people will comply.”"
Thank you.
Looks like well do the dinner in MD and go dukes of hazard for hunting season.
Guilty thought....more concerned about my hunting season then my turkey dinner.
As far as 1,000,000 cases per day and 10,000 deaths per day, I sincerely doubt that is going to happen.
First of all, we're only running about 1.3 million tests per day, so 1 MM positives would be a 77% positivity rate. Since the inception, we're at 6.8%, and in the last couple of weeks, we're at 12.7%. To think we're all of a sudden going to jump to 77% is not reasonable.
Yes, the graph of new cases looks scary, but the increase in the 7-day moving average has slowed over the last few days, and getting to 1 MM also relies on the virus getting to fresh bodies. Considering that testing was lacking early on, more people than we know have had it, so likely have immunity.
Also, the whole entire world isn't even having 1 MM cases and 10 K deaths per day. Why would we expect to get there?
First of all, we're only running about 1.3 million tests per day, so 1 MM positives would be a 77% positivity rate. Since the inception, we're at 6.8%, and in the last couple of weeks, we're at 12.7%. To think we're all of a sudden going to jump to 77% is not reasonable.
Yes, the graph of new cases looks scary, but the increase in the 7-day moving average has slowed over the last few days, and getting to 1 MM also relies on the virus getting to fresh bodies. Considering that testing was lacking early on, more people than we know have had it, so likely have immunity.
Also, the whole entire world isn't even having 1 MM cases and 10 K deaths per day. Why would we expect to get there?
That article was first posted on Monday June 8 by a representative of WHO. It was walked back on Tuesday June 9 by the same lady (" I was misunderstood ") as well as other members of WHO.
Where I am at least I know they were saying over the summer that the demographics of those getting hospitalized was trending much younger than early on (a lot of people in the 25-40 range for example). So while it wasn’t a matter of people getting mandatory tests, it was still spreading largely amongst a lower risk population, likely part of the reason we saw something similar to now where there was a large spike in cases but not as many deaths as the “first wave.”
But I do agree that college kids probably started the current spike. But most of them went back in August. We’re 2/3 of the way through November, it’s not all college kids getting it now.
And I do agree the 10k deaths is unlikely. I guess it’s not impossible, but if the trends follows the prior 2 “waves” then it will probably start trending back down before it gets that high.
"We expect that people will comply" with "our orders."
2020, the year in which public servants give orders to the public.
With all due respect “i was misunderstood” with a direct quote like that on one of the most important issues that they had been studying for 6 months is preposterous. She got slapped down because it was politically incorrect.
School spread hasn’t happened anywhere in the US this year and didn’t happen In Europe even at height of the pandemic in Spring. Spread from students to teachers or students to parents hasn’t happened.
It's getting worse. A couple of weeks ago, we were rolling along at a 25% growth in new cases from the same day of the week from week to week (in other words from Thursday in week one to the Thursday of the following week). A week or so later, we were seeing a 50% jump from week 1 to week 2. On November 5, new daily cases were 117,988. On the 12th, they were 194610. That is a 65% rate of increase.
The doubling time at 65% is basically one week. The quadrupling time is a little over two weeks. That means that if we continue at the 65% rate, cases will almost double by Nov. 19 and quadruple by Thanksgiving day. So maybe 750,000 new cases daily at the current rate of increase. Do the math - and by Dec. 3, the number of new daily cases could be 1.5 million. Do the math. 22,500,000 new cases in a month if we plateau at 750,000 new cases daily. 45 million in a month if we plateau at 1.5 million.
The doubling time at 65% is basically one week. The quadrupling time is a little over two weeks. That means that if we continue at the 65% rate, cases will almost double by Nov. 19 and quadruple by Thanksgiving day. So maybe 750,000 new cases daily at the current rate of increase. Do the math - and by Dec. 3, the number of new daily cases could be 1.5 million. Do the math. 22,500,000 new cases in a month if we plateau at 750,000 new cases daily. 45 million in a month if we plateau at 1.5 million.
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