Clemson and FSU unhappy with the ACC
- Thread starter LandoComando
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It seems impossible for fsu and clemson to leave this awful situation. They are screwed as the rest of the acc has no incentive to let them leave or take an unequal revenue share. In terms of tv ratings and interest there are only a few high value football brands outside the B1G and SEC - FSU, Clemson, ND, and Oregon.
ACC Commish John Swofford is likely to go down as the worst ever. Signing a 20 year Grant of Rights deal just to get a guaranteed cable network (which took them years to implement, and even now is only a shade better than the Pac-Network). It was only a decent deal when they signed it....but TV deals just ballooned and ballooned after that.
If it actually lasts all the way to 2036, the ACC is probably going to get less money than the ACC and Mountain West by that time. Think about that.
The number floated out there for FSU or Clemson to break the Grant of Rights is 120 million. If two or more teams would flee, it'd be interesting to see what could be done legally. But you're really only looking at a handful of teams that the SEC or Big Ten would even want.
Tier 1--FSU Clemson UNC. Definite takes.
Tier 2--UVA Duke GaTech Miami. Maybe.
Tier 3--Pitt Syracuse NcState VaTech. If you're in an arms race to stock up teams...
Nah--Wake, Louisville, BC. Nah.
If it actually lasts all the way to 2036, the ACC is probably going to get less money than the ACC and Mountain West by that time. Think about that.
The number floated out there for FSU or Clemson to break the Grant of Rights is 120 million. If two or more teams would flee, it'd be interesting to see what could be done legally. But you're really only looking at a handful of teams that the SEC or Big Ten would even want.
Tier 1--FSU Clemson UNC. Definite takes.
Tier 2--UVA Duke GaTech Miami. Maybe.
Tier 3--Pitt Syracuse NcState VaTech. If you're in an arms race to stock up teams...
Nah--Wake, Louisville, BC. Nah.
I’d have a slightly different take-
Tier 1- FSU, Clemson
Tier 2- UNC, Miami, VA Tech
Tier 3- UVA, NC St, Pitt
Nah- Syracuse, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake, Louisville, BC
Since basketball is controlled by the ncaa, it’s all about football money. Realistically, tier 3 and below are non factors other than maybe filling out any open Big 12 spots.
The next step, if this arms race continues, is to break up conferences and create new ones. I just don’t see that happening anytime soon, but eventually the top schools will realize there are no more teams out there that add enough $$ individually to a conference. So, to increase payouts, you now have to decrease the number of dead weight teams in a conference that bring in very little $$ but take the same payout as the top teams.
I think Ga Tech and Duke are still tier three and UNC at one but this makes sense. Georgia Tech actually might be two. It isn't about the quality of the football programs at all though.
They can’t afford to leave. These contract buyouts to leave are insane
As long as they have their flagship program in Pitt they will be fine - someone has to go to the Birmingham Bowl every year.
Yeah, nothing is happening for years. The GOR and the massive buyout it would take to get our of it would limit any ability for FSU or anyone else to do anything for the next decade or so. There's no incentive for the majority of the ACC to do anything put stay put and keep the conference together.
Texas/Oklahoma leaving a year early is the first time a GOR was broken and they had to pay tens of millions to do so for just one year. We might see FSU, Clemson, et al try to push it even further and try to leave maybe 2-3 years early but any earlier than that would cost prohibitive for them.
I don't know. I believe the sooner Clemson leaves, the better. If Clemson were to join the Big or SEC, they'd pay off the $120 million termination fee in less than 18 months.
I don't believe Clemson can afford to stay in the ACC.
If Clemson wanted to leave the ACC right now, they'd probably have to pay something in excess of $600M to break their Grant of Rights (GOR) for the league. Texas and Oklahoma only had to buy out a single year of GOR.
That's in addition to the $52M exit fee that the ACC has to leave the conference.
ACC schools receive about $36M annually
SEC schools receive about $50M annually
"Per the Action Network, Big Ten schools will receive the same distribution in 2023-24 as it will this year, roughly $60 million per school. The payout will increase slightly in the second year of the deal before it jumps to roughly $100 million per school, annually, starting in 2025. That's based purely on the media deal and does not include revenue from making the College Football Playoff, bowl games or NCAA Tournament."
Clemson/FSU could not afford to join the SEC, but hypothetically, if they were able to move to the B1G the finances would seem to be a no-brainer, with a 2-year payback.
Or you end up with the only teams that matter in the SEC and B1G and they act like two conferences whose champions meet in a "Super Bowl" and they negotiate with TV together for a massive payout, relegating the second tier of FBS to FCS like stature and money with the previous value they had all flowing to the two big conferences.
Who is going to invite Clemson or FSU join their league without their TV rights? The TV rights are owned by the ACC through 2036. Buying back the TV rights for over a decade's worth of games would cost a fortune.
No school is leaving the ACC until the early 2030's. The financials don't work out otherwise.
Florida State and Clemson are in rough shape on their own. But, the Grant of Rights isn't nearly as air tight as most think should certain schools decide they want to leave. UVA and VA. Tech, UNC and NC St. have a very strong chance of winning in the courts if they opt to take legal action. I have heard that Pitt would have a solid argument as well. The VA legislature did not approve it, not did North Carolina. If the ACC were to lose four schools, the entire agreement likely falls apart.
Everything I have read substantiates what you’re saying. The top 4 or 5 schools in that conference are absolutely screwed. If the GOR was possible to break, it would’ve been done already. The individual institutions, including fsu and clemson, were foolish to sign this type of long-term agreement. This agreement enriches BC, Wake Forest, Pitt, etc. and not the top schools.
What if the ACC ceases to exist? Don't underestimate the ability to programs to get out of contracts.
That sounds good but there may be a couple problems with it.
First, that would be off putting to a lot of college football fans that get left out in the cold. Why would Washington State or Texas Tech or NC State fans care about such a championship? Each of those schools may not have tons of fans, but there are lots of those schools and that adds up. And for that matter, why would the Mississippi State and Illinois type fans care when their fate has been reduced from "We usually don't have a chance in our league, but now and then we put together a great year and make a run" to "We never have a chance in our league even when we put together an unusually good team."
The other thing is, the more "great" college football programs you put in one conference, the more built in losses there are for them because for every game that's played, somebody has to lose. And the more games that "great" programs lose, the less great they seem.
I actually think it would be amazing if being undefeated wasn't the goal. It's should matter in any sport and doesn't matter in any other sport
And most fans are fans of a sport that root for a team. Not fans of a school that don't enjoy watching the sport. I'd be watching Georgia-Ohio State or Alabama-USC play for a title regardless of whether or not Penn State was in the Big Ten/SEC or not. Look at the ratings for the playoffs.
I think the mindset of what college football is desperately need to change. Let go of the past and embrace change.
So correct me if I'm wrong but these circumstances probably don't lend themselves to Penn State making the break for the ACC at this stage then?
The ACC needs to find a way break out of that horrible contract with ESPN. The GOR is probably a more difficult nut to crack.
Correct, zero chance. But in the mid to long run it probably means a UVA and/or a UNC and who knows maybe a GA Tech, Miami, Florida State in the B1G. More eastern / east coast schools for sure, just a matter of how many.
By that time, Syracuse maybe the dominant team in the ACC. They have no team with a long history of success in football. That is why they are in the predicament they are in.
Why the hell would over half of the ACC vote to disband? Only a few schools would have a landing place substantially better.
It's true that it would be crazy for over half the ACC vote to disband when only a few schools would have a landing place substantially better. But a corollary of that is, it would be crazy for the schools OTHER than the ones that have a landing place substantially better to sit around and do nothing while waiting for the schools that DO have a landing place substantially better to eventually land at that substantially better place.
IOW, if in looking to the future, the endgame seems to be Clemson & FSU to the SEC and UNC & UVa and maybe one other to the Big 10 and all the rest are out of luck, then wouldn't all the ones on that latter group have an incentive to do what they can to change the system rather than just sitting around waiting until they're screwed?
What good would leaving the ACC do for these teams. Any money they generated being in the B1G would have to be paid to the other ACC schools. They own their media rights. What advantage would it be for the B1G to add them…since the ACC owns their media rights. The best thing the ACC could do is explore a way to break their ESPN contract.
I think everyone is oversimplifying this ACC owns their media rights. Contracts can and will be broken. It doesn't benefit a large portion of the ACC to stay. Almost all of them would be better off in the SEC Big Ten or Big XII getting us down to 3 conference. Big XII can easily get to 20 just like the SEC and Big Ten just off the ACC and Pac XII if not 24. Major changes are still coming. Just a matter of when not if.
Come up with other options? Sure. But disbanded the ACC does nothing and only would make the situation worse for those teams.
I would certainly be talking to the Big 12 and PAc-12 about anything that would limit the Big Ten and SEC's control/influence though. You do that while remaining unified as a conference.
Any contract can be broken for enough money. But no one is paying hundreds of millions of dollars to break the ACC GOR. Since there's only about 3-5 ACC teams that would have any hope of joining the Big Ten or SEC, there's a majority of ACC teams that is far better off with the ACC intact than any alternative.
Clemson Miami Florida State UNC Georgia Tech and VA Tech all probably find a home in the SEC or Big Ten. Even if not they have better options. Duke NC State Pitt Louisville Syracuse and Virginia can leave and make more money in the Big XII. Who really wants the ACC to remain intact. Just BC? Wake?
I completely agree. The problem is their contract is pretty iron clad when it comes to the GOR. And yes the GOR gives away all media rights. If it wasn’t iron clad these schools would have bolted years ago.
Years ago it wasn't as bad as it currently this. They're understand just how bad this contract is for almost all parties. We'll see how it plays out. I think we'll see movement sooner than later.
Looking at it from the opposite side, what “accretive value” do ANY of the ACC schools bring to the B1G or SEC? From the B1G standpoint, Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, and Virginia are AAU schools. F$U would give the B1G a foothold in the South, but Florida is arguably the “big dog” in the state (Miami is another alternative, arguably better academics?). Georgia Tech would be a good get academically, but they are eclipsed in sports by Georgia; they are not a factor in Georgia or the South. I could see SEC and B1G having a mild fight over UNC as that school expands both conference’s territories and has basketball chops that both conferences would value, and has some football value. The B1G might value Clemson and/or F$U for territorial purposes, but that’s about it; neither has academic value and neither one is arguably the “big dog” in their respective state. Again, the big problem is that NONE of the ACC schools appear to bring enough to the table to increase overall conference value to either the B1G or SEC. The ACC always was a very regional conference that for the most part consisted of smaller size schools.
If I were the B1G, I would try to poach Florida and Georgia from the SEC as a pair, emphasizing the better academic profile in the B1G vs. the SEC. Then, I would leave the SEC to take whatever they want from the ACC (“gentleman’s agreement”).
Better yet, the B1G and SEC would be better served to agree to secede from the NCAA and create their own 36-team “alliance.” An 8-team playoff would be perfect – just over 20% of the total teams, 4 from each conference. Non-playoff teams could still participate in non-playoff bowls. An 18 or even 20 team basketball playoff would be huge. And all revenue is split between the B1G and SEC.
If I were the B1G, I would try to poach Florida and Georgia from the SEC as a pair, emphasizing the better academic profile in the B1G vs. the SEC. Then, I would leave the SEC to take whatever they want from the ACC (“gentleman’s agreement”).
Better yet, the B1G and SEC would be better served to agree to secede from the NCAA and create their own 36-team “alliance.” An 8-team playoff would be perfect – just over 20% of the total teams, 4 from each conference. Non-playoff teams could still participate in non-playoff bowls. An 18 or even 20 team basketball playoff would be huge. And all revenue is split between the B1G and SEC.
I agree with the last part but I think it would be more than 36 teams--likely 40-48 with a 12 team playoff
Maryland paid $31 million to leave. No mention of GOR back then. Did the language change? Just curious.
No mention of a GOR because one didn't exist. ACC added a GOR after Maryland left.
Big 10 targeting 4 PAC 12 schools
I think we all expected this. There will be a nice west coast pod. Oregon is the real prize for football revenue.
I think we all expected this. There will be a nice west coast pod. Oregon is the real prize for football revenue.
Stanford and Cal would be big mistakes IMO. In terms of athletics, they’d be West Coast Rutgers x 2.
I still think the main push should be moving east with Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC.
The problem is the awkward additions of USC/ UCLA now force some sort of western pivot to keep them happy by giving them a west coast pod.
Oregon and Washington are the logical picks of what’s left of the PAC but I don’t know how the finances play out in terms of added revenue.
I’m sort of surprised Arizona State, Utah, or Colorado haven't even been mentioned at all in this whole process.
ASU, Utah and Colorado produce 0 national interest in terms of tv ratings. Oregon generates top 10-15 level tv ratings and as such they are a valuable addition. Washington does ok with tv ratings. Stanford and Cal serve no football revenue purpose, but likely are valuable additions for some school presidents that want academic affiliation with the Bay area/Silicon Valley.
Makes sense. Oregon and Washington both AAU. From the article:
That list of four includes Oregon, Washington, California, and Stanford, with the Big Ten zeroing in on Washington and Oregon as its preferred options for realignment.
Both schools are also the "flagship" schools for both states; they fit the B1G "profile."
Stanford and UC Berkeley also AAU FWIW.
If the B1G takes all four that would seem to indicate a possible "gentleman's agreement" that the B1G gets the North, Midwest, and West, while the SEC keeps it's chokehold on the central South and Southeast.
If AAU is a big deal, then the only ACC schools in play would be Georgia Tech, UNC, and Virginia. Well, Duke, but I don't see that happening - UNC fits the B1G "profile" better.
If the ACC GOR doesn't expire until the 2030s, then the 4 team add from the PAC gets us to 22 teams in the B1G, question is what the SEC does.
